Seattle-Carolina - Scout Inc.'s take

BobbyBlueChip

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Belly of the Beast
Hawks need healthy dose of Alexander By Scouts, Inc.


Why To Watch
One of the greatest advantages in all of sports is an outstanding home crowd for an NFL playoff game, and the Seahawks have this advantage in a big way. Seattle is one of the most difficult places to travel to in the NFL because a cross-country road trip is never a treat. Seattle is also the much healthier team, as the strain of back-to-back playoff games has begun to take its toll on Carolina's roster. Several key starters are battling injuries, and starting RB DeShaun Foster will not play due to a broken ankle.
Starting quarterbacks Matt Hasselbeck (Seattle) and Jake Delhomme (Carolina), along with their respective head coaches, have ample playoff experience and have continually made solid decisions with the football and on the sidelines. Assuming there are no lingering affects from his concussion, RB Shaun Alexander will be asked to power the Seahawks in their quest for Super Bowl XL.

When the Panthers have the ball
Rushing: Starting RB Foster broke his right ankle in the second half of Carolina's divisional playoff victory over Chicago and Nick Goings will get the bulk of the carries in Seattle. Jamal Robertson will back up Goings, but don't expect to see much of Robertson. Although Goings is far from the playmaker or pure talent of Foster, he is capable, hard-working and solid with his assignments and knowledge of the position. He has some power and runs hard, but will not make defenders miss regularly or be able to run away from Seattle's speedy linebackers.

Although on the small side, the Seahawks' defensive line is gap sound and solid against the run. MLB Lofa Tatupu has quickly become one of the top middle linebackers in the league. He has an excellent knowledge of the position, quarterbacks the defense by getting it aligned and on the same page, sees plays develop quickly and takes very few false steps to the ball carrier. Tatupu is a striker who packs a wallop and has great pure speed and change-of-direction ability. Carolina will attack him with wham blocks out of double-tight end sets and with FB Brad Hoover, who is battling an injured ankle.

SS Michael Boulware -- a linebacker at Florida State -- will line up in the box if Seattle struggles to stop Carolina's attack with seven defenders. He is a force in the run game, but Seattle would be much better served in its quest to stop WR Steve Smith with Boulware deep in coverage. Keep an eye on where Boulware lines up early in this game to determine how much of a threat Seattle views Carolina's running game without Foster.

Passing: Smith is playing at an uncommon level and is the top playmaker in the NFL. As the games get bigger, Smith steps his game up to an even higher level. He has scored seven touchdowns in his six postseason games and is clearly the top weapon that the Seahawks need to attempt to slow down. QB Jake Delhomme threw for 319 yards in Chicago and has played better on the road than at home. He is doing an excellent job of getting the ball in Smith's hands and isn't forcing throws or making mistakes. Multiple turnovers by Delhomme would be too costly for Carolina to overcome. In the past, Delhomme has struggled in the face of a heavy rush and will gamble too much at times, but that has not been the case in two playoff games this year.

Carolina's offensive line has also been very reliable with its protection. Seattle does an exceptional job of generating pressure from numerous defenders and doesn't rely on just one or two pass rushers to get to quarterbacks. The Seahawks vary their pass rush extremely well and will play with just three down linemen on throwing downs and not hesitate to drop eight players into coverage to keep Delhomme off balance. If Carolina's line continues to perform at a high level, Seattle's secondary will not be able to cover Smith long enough to limit his production.

Do not be surprised to see the Panthers take at least one shot deep downfield to Drew Carter, who can put pressure on Seattle's secondary with his excellent combination of size and speed. The stadium is going to be extremely loud, and Carolina's offensive tackles will have to be very disciplined, as the Panthers surely will use a large percentage of silent counts. Rain could also be an issue, and Delhomme will have to practice throwing a drenched, heavy ball. This could limit the big-play threat of Smith and Carter if Delhomme struggles to get the heavy ball down the field with accuracy.

When the Seahawks have the ball
Rushing: It looks as though Alexander will play this week, and the Seahawks will need him at full strength against an outstanding Panthers defense. It is no secret that Seattle runs behind LT Walter Jones and LG Chad Hutchinson a high percentage of the time, especially in short-yardage and crucial situations. This may be particularly true on Sunday as Jones has a big mismatch in the run game against RDE Mike Rucker, who is a fine pass rusher but gives up an a lot of weight and lower body strength to Jones. Rucker will have to bite and scratch to hold the point of attack.

On the other side of Carolina's defensive line, the Panthers might be without DE Julius Peppers (shoulder), a solid run defender and excellent all-around playmaker. MLB Dan Morgan continues to fight a separated shoulder. Although he will play, he may not be the take-on linebacker who Carolina will need against FB Mack Strong, one of the most powerful isolation blockers in the league. Even when healthy, Morgan's strong suit is to run and hit with his excellent speed and instincts rather than smack fullbacks in the hole.

Alexander will get an awful lot of touches to take advantage of a banged-up Carolina front seven, which should draw a safety into the box and make throwing the football easier for the Seahawks. Alexander is obviously the key to Seattle's balanced attack, and it isn't nearly as potent or physical with Maurice Morris running the ball.

Passing: Seattle has a solid array of offensive weapons. WR Darrell Jackson is performing at a high level, but he is battling back and ankle issues. Jackson had 143 receiving yards against Washington in the divisional round and is showing great quickness, outstanding sharp routes and an excellent burst out of his breaks.

As deep and talented as the Seahawks' receiving group is, Carolina's secondary has even more depth, talent and physicality. Carolina will play a lot of man coverage to better stack the line of scrimmage against the run. Starting CBs Ken Lucas and Chris Gamble both have excellent size and strength blended with pure speed and athleticism in space. Lucas has allowed just one touchdown pass this season and has an interception in each of Carolina's playoff games. He is clearly playing at a very high level and should draw the assignment of slowing down Jackson, his former teammate.

Jackson's pure quickness may give Lucas some trouble, but for the most part, this is a solid matchup for the Panthers. Gamble is a good matchup against WR Joe Jurevicius, and nickel CB Ricky Manning should battle WR Bobby Engram with favorable results. TE Jerramy Stevens has tremendous height and catching radius and is capable of causing any defense mismatch problems, but the combination of WLB Will Witherspoon, LB/S Thomas Davis and starting safeties Mike Minter and Marlon McCree should bracket Stevens well and offer a great deal of support for the Panthers' corners against Seattle's wide receivers.

Although Carolina's secondary appears to have the advantage over Seattle's receiving options, Hasselbeck is on fire right now and his accuracy, maturity and decision-making have improved quite a bit over the past year. He is athletic enough to make plays with his feet, and expect Seattle to roll him out in either direction to get him in space to challenge the Panthers' defense. Hasselbeck also is adept at throwing a wet, heavy ball in the Seattle rain.

Seattle should also be able to protect Hasselbeck much better than Chicago or New York protected its QB against Carolina's pass rush. Hasselbeck is the first quarterback with experience Carolina's defense has faced, and he will not rattle easily. Peppers injured his shoulder last week, and RDE Rucker -- who is a fine pass rusher in his own right -- will have a hard time beating LT Jones, a physical freak who is the best offensive lineman in football. If Peppers is healthy enough to play, he will have a favorable matchup against RT Sean Locklear, a developing young player who isn't yet anywhere near the class of a healthy Peppers.
 

BobbyBlueChip

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Belly of the Beast
Questions arose again last week about the toughness of Seattle RB Shaun Alexander. Alexander came out early in the first quarter against the Redskins with a concussion. Even though it was reported that doctors told Alexander he should not return to the game, the questions arose because Alexander himself was not lobbying to get back in.
Although he will return to the lineup this week, he might be running a little tentatively in an effort to stay healthy. With as many as two games remaining, Alexander is poised to become one of the most highly sought free agents on the market. Although he has shown a lot more toughness this season, he can't seem to shed the "soft" label. Alexander will face a physical defense this week. You can bet the Panthers will hit Alexander early and often to find out just how tough he is going to run.

? Give Carolina offensive coordinator Dan Henning a lot of credit for the way he used star WR Steve Smith last week. In an effort to get better matchups, the Panthers like to keep Smith on the left side of the formation, where he can go against the opposing team's No. 2 cornerback. That changed against Chicago, when the majority of Smith's big plays were on the right side of the field. Even though Bears LDC Charles Tillman is considered to be the No. 1 corner, RDC Nathan Vasher is a much better player. Henning got Smith matched up early and often on Tillman, which resulted in some big plays in the first half.

Last season, Ken Lucas (now with Carolina) was the left corner in Seattle. Its current top corner, Marcus Trufant, is more comfortable on the right side, so after Lucas left, the Seahawks never switched him to the left side. This means that again this week you can expect to see Smith aligned more on the right, where he will get a much better matchup vs. Seattle's No. 2 and No. 3 corners, Andre Dyson and Kelly Herndon.

? Seahawks WR Darrell Jackson missed most of the second half of the season with a knee injury. He played sparingly late in the year before getting a nice layoff coming into the playoffs. That layoff paid dividends, as Jackson looked as healthy last week as he has since the start of the season. When Alexander went out with his injury, Jackson stepped up and became that No. 1 target the Seahawks were hoping he could be this season.

When Seattle goes to its three-wide package, it forces teams to go away from their base defense. With opposing teams having to bring in an extra defensive back for a linebacker, it allows much more inside running room when Seattle runs from its three-WR package. Seattle would be wise not to try to just line up and pound it down the throat of a very physical Carolina defense. Carolina's ability to stop the run with its base defense off the field will play a key role in the outcome of this game.

? Carolina finished the regular season ranked seventh in sacks. Seattle's offensive line, anchored by LOT Walter Jones and LOG Steve Hutchinson, is one of the best in the NFL. Carolina has a very diverse defense that can attack in many different ways. Some weeks, the Panthers will bring extra pressure with linebacker blitzes (Chicago); others, they are willing just to rush four down linemen (New York Giants).

The main thing that allows the Panthers to be so diverse up front is their cornerbacks. In Lucas, Chris Gamble and Ricky Manning (slot), they have three excellent man-to-man corners who can lock up some of the top receivers in the NFL. Their corners' ability to hold opposing receivers in check allows the Panthers' solid defensive line that extra 1-2 seconds to get to the quarterback.

This week, however, Carolina's corners will play dividends in another role. Although Seattle has a good group of receivers, there are no real superstars who can just flat-out beat man-to-man coverage on a consistent basis. The Panthers' ability to play man coverage this week will allow them to drop their safety into the box for run support. That will be a huge key in their efforts to slow Alexander and the Seattle running game.

? It is not often that you can lose the best player on your team in the first quarter of a playoff game and advance. This is what Seattle was able to do last week when it lost Alexander. A lot of credit goes to QB Matt Hasselbeck. Although not talked about as an elite quarterback, he proved his detractors wrong and showed he is indeed one of the best in the NFL. He doesn't always have the gaudy statistics, but his improved decision making has made him a much better player.

In past seasons, you might be sitting and waiting for Hasselbeck to make that critical mistake late in the game to cost his team. You don't get the impression it is going to happen this season. He is much more poised and deliberate with his reads. Despite Seattle's not having a true No. 1 receiver on the roster, Hasselbeck does an excellent job of spreading the ball around to his group of No. 2 and No. 3 receivers as well as to his talented tight ends.

? The Panthers have been road warriors. After needing to win in Atlanta in Week 17 to ensure a playoff spot, they have had to play in back-to-back hostile environments in the playoffs. This will be their fourth straight road game, and the travel and physicality of the playoffs are starting to take a toll.

Although both teams will be nursing injuries, the key ones all seem to be on the Carolina side. RB DeShaun Foster is out with a broken ankle. This will put a lot of pressure on Nick Goings, who began the season as No. 3 runner. Goings is a versatile player who catches the ball well out of the backfield but is more of a utility-type back. He is not a powerful inside runner and is more effective on draws and trap-type runs. Goings being in the lineup will force Carolina into more of a finesse-type run game.

The other key injury is the one to LDE Julius Peppers' shoulder. If Peppers is not able to play or he plays but is ineffective, it will really hinder Carolina's ability to stop the run. His replacement, Al Wallace, is much better suited as a backup. He has a linear frame and lacks the bulk Peppers provides in holding the point of attack. Although the Seahawks like to run to their left behind stud offensive linemen Jones and Hutchinson, you can bet they also will go to the right if Wallace is in the lineup.

? With injuries mounting, the Panthers have very few offensive weapons. For Carolina to win, Smith is going to have to catch 10-plus balls for another 150-plus yards. This task will be difficult with Foster out. If the Panthers can't generate a running game with Goings, that will allow Seattle to truly double-cover Smith on almost every down. Even though Smith has been able to beat the double-team a lot this season, the Panthers need someone to step up and make some plays opposite him. So far, it has been a different player each week. Keary Colbert made a few plays versus the Giants, and Ricky Proehl and Drew Carter made a few nice catches last week.

The player to watch this week is Carter. He is a former track star with excellent vertical speed to stretch the field. Don't be surprised to see more formations this week with speedy Carter and Smith aligned on the same side in a dual formation. With Smith expected to see a lot of extra attention, he and Carter might be able to play a little two-man game known as "high-low." When Carter gets vertical, he should be able to clear out some underneath room for Smith on intermediate crossing routes. If the coverage goes with Smith, Carter should be able to get favorable matchups one-on-one in the vertical passing game. Carolina has been creative in the playoffs with its passing attack, and this would be the next step in that process.

? One player to keep an eye on if Alexander is limited in any way is backup RB Maurice Morris. Morris does not get a ton of reps playing behind the league MVP, but he has always been a player who has delivered when called upon. He wasn't spectacular last week, but he ran hard and was able to grind out some tough first-down pickups to keep the ball in Seattle's possession.

Morris averaged 4.1 yards per carry this season and has average hands coming out of the backfield. One other thing to note with Morris is that he, like Alexander, will be an unrestricted free agent at season's end. Teams will be checking to see how he performs under pressure situations as they try to determine whether he can be a solid No. 2 with the potential to be a No. 1 in the near future.

Special Teams
The Seahawks continue to have problems with their special teams. The biggest issues are in the return game, where they cannot generate any big plays. Their return units are also among the most penalized in the NFL, which continually puts their offense in poor field position.

One thing they had not been doing, at least, was turning the ball over. That all changed last week, though, with a muffed punt by Jimmy Williams and fumbled kickoff by Josh Scobey. Scobey will keep his job, but Williams likely will be replaced as the punt return man. The cover units have been better than the return units, but will be tested this week by ever-dangerous Smith, who can change the game in a split second with his return ability.

Fortunately for Seattle, its special teams woes have not carried over to the kicker or punter. Punter Tom Rouen was outstanding last week, keeping Washington's offense bottled up for most of the day. PK Josh Brown is solid and knows how to handle the conditions in his home stadium.

The Panthers' kicking game has been solid, too. PK John Kasay planted wrong on an extra point that resulted in a miss. However, he was 3-for-3 on field goals and is an amazing 23-of-25 (92 percent) in the postseason over his career.
 

BobbyBlueChip

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Belly of the Beast
Matchups
? Carolina MLB Dan Morgan vs. Seattle RB Shaun Alexander
? Seattle DC Marcus Trufant vs. Carolina WR Steve Smith
? Carolina ROT Jordan Gross vs. Seattle LDE Bryce Fisher
? Seattle LOT Walter Jones vs. Carolina RDE Mike Rucker
? Carolina DC Ken Lucas vs. Seattle WR Darrell Jackson

Scouts' Edge
The Panthers are in a tough spot this week. This is their fourth consecutive road game. They have played two straight physical games against the Giants and Bears and have injury issues as a result. Carolina has thrived in this spot, though, and this team seems to respond much better when it is the underdog.

Even though Alexander is the MVP, Carolina will have the best player in this game. Smith has had to carry the load, and this week will be no different. For Carolina to win, offensive coordinator Henning will have to continue to find creative ways to get him involved in the game plan. Smith is the most difficult receiver in the NFL to press at the line, so look for Seattle to play off coverage. Seattle's corners and linebackers must take good angles to the ball because after the catch, Smith is just as liable to take it outside as he is to reverse field or cut back toward the middle of the field.

The Seahawks have one of the most diverse offenses in the NFL. They can beat you with Alexander on the ground or with Hasselbeck through the air. The return of Jackson has given Seattle the playmaker in the passing game that the offense lacked. Defensively, the Seahawks are a no-name group that plays excellent team football. However, if they have one weakness, it is the secondary. That is not a good thing when you're going up against an explosive playmaker such as Smith. Seattle looked tight last week and has struggled under pressure in recent seasons. Carolina is loose and has nothing to lose. That, along with Smith, will be the key for the Panthers advancing to the Super Bowl.

Prediction: Panthers 24, Seahawks 20
 
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