Georgia will win the tie breaker if everything stays the same as it is right now. Florida is not within 5 spots of the top team (Tennessee), so they are eliminated in that round. The next round is head to head where Georgia wins out over the Vols. They explained this during the Georgia-Auburn game this weekend. If those guys know what they are talking about (which I doubt), we are looking pretty good.:shrug:
The BCS polls will change in the coming weeks. IF Florida beats FSU, they will obviously be launched up the BCS rankings, so they will be within 5 of Tennessee. Georgia plays Kentucky and Georgia Tech, so their strength of schedule probably won't move in either direction. Tennesse plays Vanderbilt and Kentucky, so their SOS will probably slip some.
In the end, I think all three team will be within 5 spots. At that point, it will go back to a vote by the ADs if I understand everything correctly. My feeling is that Florida would probably win that vote because they are the hottest of the three teams.