SEC Plays 11/1

[RollTide72]

32-24-3 overall for the season.

Florida and Jawga highlight week #10 of SEC football action. The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party returns to Jacksonville and it should be one helluva game.

Awbie and Ole Miss face off in the early Raycom game with the loser more than likely out of a bowl berth.

Arkansas will attempt to avoid further embarrassment as they take on Tulsa and former OC Guz Malzahn in Fayetteville.

Kentucky travels to Starkpatch and tries to become bowl eligible against Sly Croom and his Bulldogs.

My Crimson Tide will attempt to avoid last year's Sun Belt upset as Arky State visits the Capstone.

Phat Phil and the Viles travel to Columbia for Fulmer's last stand against the 'Cocks and Steve Superior. I'm really shocked the HBC has not made some smartass comment about the Phat One this week.

LSwho attempts to get healthy as they take on a game Tulane Green Wave ball club in Baton Rouge.

Should be another great weekend of college football action... on to the picks!

 

[RollTide72]

Jawga at Florida
What a sight last year when the Dawgs scored an early TD and the entire team left their sideline to celebrate in the endzone with their teammates. That didn't sit well with holier than thou HC Urban Meyer. He raised a fuss after the game, commented on it in a book he wrote during the offseason, but has been very quiet on the subject this week, pleading the 5th every time he's asked about it. Me thinks the Reptiles are pissed and Urban has something up his sleeve.

The winner in all likely hood wins the Eastern Division and heads to Atlanta to take on (more than likely) Alabama for the SEC Championship as well as keeps alive faint hopes for a spot in the BCS Championship game.

Did anyone see that asswhipping by the 'Dawgs in Baton Rouge last weekend coming? I was tailgating in ObKnoxville and everyone was commenting on how dominant the 'Dawgs looked. It was a great start to a four game road trip for UGA.

The Reptiles meanwhile returned to normal. By the time it took for me to get from the Tennessee state line to Calhoun's, they had hung 4 TDs on the Mildcats en route to a 63-5 mauling of Kentucky. No look ahead for either team last week.

UGA leads all SEC teams in total offense, but the yards haven?t always led to points. 14 of the 52 from last week came courtesy of LB Darryl Gamble. Needless to say, this will be the best offense that the Reptiles have faced all season. The 'Dawgs are every bit as athletic, every bit as fast, and every bit as good as Florida. QB Matthew Stafford is now 24-5 as a starter and has 6,218 yards with 38 TDs in his career. Knowshon Moreno registered his third-highest rushing total of the season after tallying 163 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries last weekend against the Bayou Bengals. WRs A.J. Green (39 rec., 662 yds., 5 TDs) and senior SE Mohamed Massaquoi (28 rec., 366 yds., 4 TDs) have contributed very nicely as well this season.

Against Kentucky, QB Tim Tebow rushed for two TDs to bring his career total to 36 which is tied with Emmitt Smith for the most in school history. Jeff Demps' average of 11.9 yards per carry leads the nation (min. 25 attempts). His average TD run this year is 47 yards. He had the first receiving TD of his career vs. UK on a 61-yard reception. Over the last three games, Demps and Chris Rainey have carried the ball 52 times for 487 yards and four rushing TDs (avg. 9.4 per carry). Percy Harvin has scored a TD in each of the last nine games he has played in.

Defensively for the Reptiles, Brandon Spikes is third in the SEC in tackles per game this year and is 44th nationally with 8.67. Spikes has led Florida in tackles in eight of the last 11 games he has played in. In addition, he has recorded 10-or-more tackles in five of his last eight outings. Ahmad Black recorded his team-leading third interception of the season against Kentucky. Carlos Dunlap is fourth in the SEC in sacks per game.

Darryl Gamble tied a UGA and SEC record after returning a pair of INTs for TDs in the 'Dawgs' 52-38 last weekend. Gamble also had a career-high 13 tackles, which was second on the team against LSwho. Rennie Curran continues to lead the team in tackles (69), including a career-high 14 against LSwho and Alabama. Curran has been the UGA's top tackler six times this season and also leads the team with 3.0 sacks.

Florida's Brandon James is one of three players in the country to return two punts for touchdowns this season. UGA's Ramarcus Brown is averaging 24.0 yds./return. Brown had a season-long 44-yarder at Arizona State. He had 146 yards on six returns against Alabama.

Both teams are loaded with incredible talent and athleticism on both sides of the ball, but this showdown will come down to the two big guns: Tebow and Stafford. In my opinion after I look at both teams, the only difference I see is that UGA was blown out at home by Alabama and Florida lost a cheap one at home to Ole Miss. I give the advantage to the Reptiles, but I'm not gonna bet this one.

My prediction is Florida 27-21

My lean is Reptiles -6.5

 

[RollTide72]

Awbarn at Ole Miss
You just know the fans in Oxford are salivating at the chance to add to Wingnut's misery as HC Tommy Tubberville brings his train wreck of a ball club to the most beautiful campus in the SEC. A loss by War Eagle pretty much seals a losing season and no bowl bid for Awbie. The Reverend Houston Nutt's Rebels have been in every ball game so far this year and are painfully close to being 7-1 or even 8-0. These are definitely two teams heading in opposite directions.

The Awbarn offense really is bad. There was little passing game before with Chris Todd under center, and now that he?s out hurt, there might as well not be any wide receivers on the field with Kodi Burns under center. The Tigers have one of the least efficient passing attacks in America, meaning the Rebels? biggest weakness, the secondary, won?t be exploited. Junior RB Ben Tate has been their top offensive weapon, averaging 67.2 rushing yards per game with a pair of TDs.

Jevan Snead is tied for the SEC lead in TD passes (12) and ranks third in passing average (209.1 ypg) and fourth in total offense (214.0 ypg). Shay Hodge is tied for the SEC lead in touchdown catches with six and ranks first in yards per catch (19.3) and fourth in receiving yards per game (60.4 ypg), ahead of teammate Dexter McCluster in sixth (56.4). Mike Wallace posted the fourth 100-yard receiving game of his career and second of the year with a career-high 120 yards on five catches at Arkansas.

Awbarn's ranks fifth in the SEC in total defense and fourth in pass defense. Junior DL Antonio Coleman tops the conference in sacks (6.0) and TFLs (10.5), and sophomore DB Mike McNeil is the squad's leading tackler with 43 total stops. Sen'Derrick Marks is tied for third in the SEC with nine tackles for loss, including two sacks. Marks, who has started all 34 games since the start of the 2006 season, now has 29 tackles for loss during his career.

Peria Jerry leads the team and is fourth in the SEC with 9.0 TFLs, and sophomore NT Ted Laurent is tied for 10th in the league with 7.0. Jerry has 4.5 TFLs in his last two games. Jamarca Sanford has recorded double-figure tackles in two of the last four games and 10 times in his career. Sanford is tied for seventh in the SEC in tackles per game (8.0) and is the league's active career leader (269 total stops).

Robert Dunn is second nationally in punt returns (21.4), while Tristan Davis is 13th nationally in kickoff returns (28.4). Both have returned kicks for touchdowns. Davis set an Awbarn single-game record with 182 kickoff return yards Oct. 11 vs. Arkansas. Davis, who accumulated the 182 yard on five returns, brought back his first return of the game 97 yards for a touchdown, which was the sixth-longest kickoff return in school history. His 182 yards were the eighth most in a single game in SEC history.

The Rebels' Joshua Shene has quietly emerged as the top kicker in the SEC, ranking first in field goal percentage (92.3) and tied for first in PATs (1.000). Since his lone missed kick of the year at Vanderbilt on a 47-yard try, Shene has made eight straight FGs and is 12-of-13 overall.

Can the Awbie offense keep their defense off the field long enough do give them some reset? That was the main problem in their last game at West Virginia. I just see too much Greg Hardy and his friends pressuring Kodi Burns all afternoon. If Awbie doesn't score early, it's gonna be ugly. I love the Rebels to win by at least two TDs. HOTTY TODDY!

My prediction is Ole Miss 20-6

My bet is Colonel Reb -6.5

 

[Woodson]

What a monumental shift in what is the Great State of Alabama's Football Programs...

Sadly, I agree with your prediction.

:sadwave:

 

[RollTide72]

Tulsa at Arkansas
Golden Hurricane OC Guz Malzahn returns to Fayetteville where he held the same position last year. He brings with him one of the topped ranked offense in D-1 and is going up against the SEC's worst offense. After last week's emotional loss at home to former coach Houston Nutt, I wonder how much the Hogs have left in their gas tank. With their last two losses by a total of 3 points, I think it's hopeless in Fayetteville.

Arkansas' defense has allowed 32 points a game and has been sketchy in covering passes. The Hurricane will attack with a balanced offense averaging 267 yards on the ground and 357 through the air. QB David Johnson is surrounded by a supporting cast of dynamic playmakers who can turn short hitches into long bursts through the secondary. In his first year as a starter, Johnson has completed 68.3 percent of his passes for 2,661 yards and 32 TDs while throwing nine interceptions.

The Golden Hurricane have Conference USA's second-ranked scoring defense, allowing 26.1 points per game, and have given up 1.3 yards per rush in their last two contests. That will be put to the test against Arkansas RB Michael Smith who leads the SEC with 131.4 rushing yards per game. Smith has racked up 920 yards and six touchdowns on 163 carries thus far this season. Arkansas is 117th nationally in sacks allowed. Ouch!

Injuries won't help matters for the Hogs. Freshman free safety Elton Ford, who has started every game, could miss the rest of the season with a neck injury. Offensive lineman Grant Cook will miss Saturday's game with a sprained knee. Defensive lineman Adrian Davis is also nursing a knee injury, and his status is uncertain.

It's been almost two years since Tulsa has been held under 20 points. It's certainly not gonna happen tonight. I just don't think there is any fight left in this Arkansas team. Tulsa has an easier time than they should against an SEC team.

My prediction is Tulsa 38-14

My bet is Tulsa -7

 

[RollTide72]

What a monumental shift in what is the Great State of Alabama's Football Programs...

Sadly, I agree with your prediction.

:sadwave:

Yeah, while I've been pleasantly surprised with Alabama's return I've been shocked at how bad things have gone down on the Plains.

Was listening to Paul Finebaum earlier this week and of course he's like a kid in a candy store right now. Tubberville did not sound very enthusiastic in any of his press conferences. I still expect a tough game in the Iron Bowl.

 

[RollTide72]

Kentucky at Mississippi State
Is their still life for Sly Croom and the Bulldogs in Starkville? How do the Mildcats bounce back from the assthrashing in the Swamp last weekend? With UGA, Vandy and UcheaT still on the schedule and the injuries that have riddled his team, HC Rich Brooks needs a 6th win for bowl eligibility and fast.

UK quarterback Mike Hartline ranks seventh in the SEC in the total offense, averaging 161.1 yards per game, however, freshman Randall Cobb will start for UK this weekend. With UK's top two receivers out with season-ending knee injuries (Dicky Lyons and Derrick Locke), Cobb leads the receiving corps with 18 catches for 164 yards and two touchdowns. TB Alonso Smith had a career day in receiving yards vs. Arkansas, catching five passes for a career-high 108 yards.

Dominic Douglas moved into the middle linebacker position in Week 4 after starting 14 times at weakside linebacker. He currently leads the Bulldogs with 58 total tackles, and that total ranks 11th in the SEC. Last weekend against MTSU, Douglas posted eight tackles, a pair of quarterback hurries and a pass breakup. Derek Pegues holds the MSU school record with three interception returns for touchdowns, which is tied for second in the SEC. Also, his 11 total interceptions tie him for third in school history in that category and it is the highest active total in the conference.

Trevard Lindley, who holds the school record for career pass breakups (32), leads the SEC and is tied for seventh in the nation in passes defended. He has charted nine pass breakups, including three against Alabama, and four interceptions (T-12th in the nation) this season. Jeremy Jarmon currently has 5.5 tackle for loss, two sacks, three pass breakups and two quarterback hurries. Braxton Kelley currently leads the team and ranks seventh in the SEC in tackles with 64.

Brandon McRae has hauled in a team-leading 37 passes on the season for 361 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He ranks fifth in the SEC with a 4.6-catch-per-game average. With 599 yards on 140 carries in the first eight games of the season, State junior tailback Anthony Dixon has now compiled 2,333 rushing yards on 596 attempts in 33 career games. Dixon rushed 27 times for 126 yards and three touchdowns last week versus MTSU.

This really should be low scoring affair, even with all of the injuries on UK's defense. Something tells me that the Bulldogs have a little more bite than the Mildcats. HAIL STATE!

My prediction is Mississippi State 20-13

My bet is Bulldogs -2

 

[RollTide72]

Arkansas State at Alabama
Louisiana-Monroe 21 Alabama 14
I think I was sick for a week after that game. I'm sure that Nick Saban and his staff have gently reminded the Crimson Tide what happened the last time a Sun Belt Conference team invaded Bryant-Denny Stadium. Could it be deja vu all over again?

In my opinion, Arky State is a better opponent than LA-Monroe and that should get the Tide's attention. The Red Wolves have beaten the only BCS conference opponent they've played this season, topping Texas A&M 18-14 in their Aug. 30 season opener. With a similar roster last season, they outgained and in large part outplayed then-No. 4 Texas in a 21-13 loss.

The Crimson Tide can go to 9-0 this Saturday against Arkansas State and add to their rich tradition along the way. Their winning streak would reach 10 games dating back to last season, the 21st winning streak of 10 or more games in Alabama history. That's easily the most in major college football. Michigan and Nebraska are tied for second with 16 streaks of 10 or more wins.

ASU has a tremendously balanced offense full of veterans who aren?t going to cower just because they?re facing the No. 2 team in the nation. Led by QB Corey Leonard, the Red Wolves are good at mixing it up on offense, and strong when it comes to getting into the backfield on defense. Leonard has been named the league's offensive player of the week twice this season and six times for his career. He is is just the fourth player in school history to pass for over 4,500 yards (4,795), the third player to throw at least 30 touchdowns (34).

Alex Carrington is as good a pure pass rusher the Tide will face all season long, and he?ll be moved around to give the Tide offensive line a few different looks. Daylan Walker and Ben Owens have been named the SBC Defensive Player of the Week this season. Carrington already had a Sun Belt Conference-high 11.5 tackles for loss entering the ULL game, which more than doubled his previous career best for a single season (5 in 2007). Carrington had a league-high 7.5 sacks as well, which easily tops his total of two for his freshman and sophomore seasons combined.

Andre Smith is one of 12 semifinalists for the 2008 Rotary Lombardi Award and was named to The Sporting News Midseason All-America team. Glen Coffee has three rushes of 50 yards or more. Coffee ranks fourth in the SEC and 21st nationally in rushing at 104.75 yards per game and leads the top 10 SEC rushers at 6.6 yards per carry. Julio Jones leads the Tide with 55.5 receiving yards per game. John Parker Wilson now has 45 career touchdown passes and 6,911 yards.

Alabama is fifth in the nation in total defense, yielding just 263.1 ypg. The Tide only gave up 173 total yards to UcheaT despite missing stalwart DT Terrence Cody, who is expected to sit out again this week before returning to face LSwho. Alabama has the wrong defense for the ASU running game. Forget about running wide on this group, there?s way too much quickness and athleticism on the outside, and while Terrence Cody will be out with a knee injury, ASU isn?t strong enough up front to pound away on the inside. The Red Wolves will have to throw the ball to win, but it doesn?t have the receiver talent to make much of a dent in the solid Tide secondary.

This game scares me somewhat. I don't think there is a repeat of last year's debacle, but Arky State is not bad. 24 points is an awful lot to give up and with LSwho on the calendar next week, I don't see Saban keeping his starters in the game much into the 4th quarter. As everyone knows by now, I never bet the Tide. I lean towards Arky State though.

My prediction is Alabama 31-14

My lean is Arky State +24

 

[RollTide72]

UcheaT at USC-East
Oh how I long for the days when the HBC would make comments like, "You can't spell Citrus Bowl without UT." Where have those barbs been this week? Has Superior gone soft in his old age?

Will the Viles step up to the plate and "win one for the Phat one"? There is a chance that if the Viles can win in Columbia they could run the table and finish 7-5. Would that be enough to save Foolmer's job? I think the majority of the UcheaT fanbase would take a losing season if it meant getting rid of the great pumpkin.

USC-East likes to give the ball away, and the UcheaT secondary likes to take it. The safety combination of Eric Berry and Demetrice Morley is the best in America and it?s been great at making plays when the ball is in the air. 15 were interceptions including fourth quarter pick sixes from both Berry and Morley against Mississippi State. The 'Cocks have turned it over 23 times this year with 15 interceptions.

UcheaT has the nation?s 112th ranked offense averaging a measly 281 yards per game. The attack has scored more than 14 just once in the last six games and isn?t showing any passing game whatsoever. USC-East might not just shut down the Vile offense, it could shut it out. The 'Cocks are a brick wall against the pass and are fourth in the nation in total defense allowing just 256 yards and 16 points per game.

I just don't see UcheaT winning this game. I think the Viles see the writing on the wall and just don't care. I was watching the replay of last week's game against Alabama and saw way too much laughing and grinning on the UcheaT sidelines for a team that is really struggling. GO COCKS GO!

My prediction is USC-East 24-6

My bet is the Gamecocks -6

 

[RollTide72]

Tulane at LSwho
LSwho fans get a night game, but it's not against the team or coach they wanted it against. The Green Wave come to the city of the red stick to take on the Mad Hatter and his suddenly reeling Bayou Bengals. After two damaging losses in the last three weeks, where does LSwho go from here?

Tulane looked really good in the first month of the season. They have come back to Earth in recent weeks, allowing an average of 34 points over the last month. Their No. 1 guy, Kevin Moore, is struggling and their No. 2 guy, Joe Kemp, is a redshirt freshman. To top it off, the starting running back is done for the year. In times like this, what your QB really needs is a vote of confidence. A few words from the coach that shows he really believes in you heading into Baton Rouge. "It's going to be a difficult game, and we don't want Joe to get demoralized," Tulane coach Bob Toledo told the New Orleans Times-Picayune. "LSU is a really good football team. I know they gave up some big plays (to Georgia), but obviously we're not capable of making big plays right now. I'd say right now that both are going to get a chance to play, but we haven't made that decision yet."

RB Charles Scott is coming off another outstanding performance, rushing for 144 yards and a pair of TDs against Georgia. In seven games, Scott has rushed for 100 yards five times and third in the SEC with 110.7 yards per game. Scott has rushed for 775 yards and 10 TDs. LSwho QB Jarrett Lee has thrown for 1,328 yards and 11 TDs. WR Brandon LaFell has been the top target for LSwho quarterbacks, catching 36 passes for 524 yards and five touchdowns.

The Tulane defense remains ranked among the nation's top teams in total sacks at No. 28 with 16 for minus 106 yards. TU is averaging 2.43 sacks per game this season. Corey Sonnier leads the team with 50 tackles. Reggie Scott has 4.5 TFLs and two sacks, while Josh Lumar has 4.0 TFLs, two sacks and one interception. Logan Kelley leads the team with 4.0 sacks.

Andre Anderson ranks eighth nationally and first among C-USA players in rushing yards per game (123.43) and is 24th in the nation and fifth in C-USA for all-purpose yards per contest (152.29). He has rushed for 100 or more yards in four games and has 864 yards on 174 carries and seven touchdowns on the ground this year. (HE IS OUT!) Jeremy Williams leads Tulane is receiving with 27 receptions for 437 yards and five touchdowns, and he ranks second on the team in all-purpose yards with 135.2 yards.

Defensively, S Harry Coleman leads the Bayou Bengals with 41 tackles, while DE Rahim Alem has 5.0 sacks and DE Tyson Jackson 4.5 sacks, fourth in the SEC. Jackson ran his career total to 18.5, which ranks eighth in school history. Alem, a junior, ranks No. 2 in the SEC in sacks per game with 0.71 a contest. Alem is also No. 9 in the league in tackles for losses with 7.0.

The Bayou Bengals should be able to start thinking about the return of Nick Saban at some point during the 2nd half. My guess is the Mad Hatter did some asskicking in practice this week. Even if LSwho has a hard time getting up for this game, it?ll cruise to a victory on talent alone. The Bayou Bengals will run the ball without much resistance and try to recapture some of the swagger that?s been lost on defense. Last week I loved Kentucky +26 and we all know what happened, LOL. This week I'm laying the chalk. HOLD THAT TIGER!

My prediction is LSwho 44-10

My bet is Bayou Bengals -26.5

 

[RollTide72]

Over/Unders

Awbarn at Ole Miss... 42
Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Mississippi.

My bet is UNDER 42

Tulsa at Arkansas... 75.5
The over is 5-1 in both teams? past six non-conference games.

My lean is UNDER 75.5

Kentucky at Mississippi State... 37.5
Under is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 home games.
Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 road games.

My lean is UNDER 37.5

Arkansas State at Alabama... 46
The under is 4-0 in ASU?s last four road games and 5-2 in the Tide?s last seven non-conference games.

My lean is UNDER 46

Florida at Georgia... 57.5
The over is 11-2 in Florida?s last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record.

My lean is UNDER 57.5

UcheaT at USC-East... 38
Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

My bet is UNDER 38

Tulane at LSwho... 54.5
The over is 12-3 in LSU?s past 15 games.

My lean is UNDER 54.5

 

[trolln4walii]

Always love to read the wealth of knowledge I find in your thread each week. Really appreciate the efffort you take to provide all the great info :thumb: Am extremely happy when my midwestern views line up on the same side of your plays :00hour With you this week on the Gators and the two Mississippis. May throw LSU and the Gamecocks in a 14point teaser. GL with your plays :toast:

 

[RollTide72]

Weather Forecasts

Jacksonville, FL
72* and scattered showers (30%)

Tuscaloosa, AL
74* and Sunny (what else would you expect in God's country?) :SIB

Oxford, MS
65* and Sunny

Fayetteville, AR
72* and Sunny

Starkville, MS
71* and Sunny

Baton Rouge, LA
61* and Clear

Columbia, SC
58* and Clear

 

[Fluk]

Jawga at Florida

My prediction is Florida 27-21

My lean is Reptiles -6.5

:shrug: :shrug: :shrug:

I apologize in advance for my ignorance, but can you help me understand your UAT math?

Good luck today.

 

[RollTide72]

:shrug: :shrug: :shrug:

I apologize in advance for my ignorance, but can you help me understand your UAT math?

Good luck today.

I will try to explain, so I'll type s-l-o-w-l-y.

I predicted a final score of Florida winning 27-21.

The spread is Florida -6.5 points. I'm not betting the game because it's too close... but if I were betting (lean) it would be to take Florida laying the points.

As FDC says, hope this helps.

 

[Fluk]

I predicted a final score of Florida winning 27-21.

The spread is Florida -6.5 points. I'm not betting the game because it's too close... but if I were betting (lean) it would be to take Florida laying the points.

You are predicting 27-21, but lean to Florida -6.5 - got it, makes perfect sense.

 

[RollTide72]

My final bets for the day...

Ole Miss -6 and UNDER 41.5

Tulsa -7 and UNDER 76.5

South Carolina -5.5 and UNDER 37.5

Mississippi State -2.5

LSU -26.5 and UNDER 54

Looking for some DEFENSIVE games today in the SEC.

Might even tease a few of these (Tulsa -1 and UNDER 82.5) (USC +.5 and UNDER 43.5).

Good luck to everyone! :toast:

 

[RollTide72]

Always love to read the wealth of knowledge I find in your thread each week. Really appreciate the efffort you take to provide all the great info :thumb: Am extremely happy when my midwestern views line up on the same side of your plays :00hour With you this week on the Gators and the two Mississippis. May throw LSU and the Gamecocks in a 14point teaser. GL with your plays :toast:

I appreciate your comments. Hope the Rebs can bring it home in the 2nd half!

Good luck my friend! :toast:

 

[IntenseOperator]

I will try to explain, so I'll type s-l-o-w-l-y.

He mistakingly thought you may have played an underdog and was trying to save you.

 

[RollTide72]

My final bets for the day...

Ole Miss -6 and UNDER 41.5 WINNER WINNER :00hour :00hour

Tulsa -7 and UNDER 76.5 Loser WINNER

South Carolina -5.5 and UNDER 37.5

Mississippi State -2.5 Loser

LSU -26.5 and UNDER 54

Looking for some DEFENSIVE games today in the SEC.

Might even tease a few of these (Tulsa -1 and UNDER 82.5) Loser (USC +.5 and UNDER 43.5).

Good luck to everyone! :toast:

A pedestrian 3-3 so far. Need the Bayou Bengals and Gamecocks tonight!