Dooley recently (last week Thursday) saw a presentation by Phillips Hager and North.
they manage 60 billion for pension funds and have a mutual fund (also in Canada) that manages 24 billion (along with private clients). they are value managers and most of their funds are highly rated except for Vintage and US and Int. fund.
they have recently changed management, min is 25K, low mers. and good performance. funds only sold in Canada. however Carl Lytollis in now head of their US fund, and he runs funds in the US.
anyways here are some of their thoughts: mine are in brackets
outlook 2006/2007
global economy is still heatlhy but risks of weaker than consenseus growth for 2007 are rising.
US is at the leading edge of the slowdown.
Risks to the outlook
Federal reserve goes to far (if they go one more time)
Imbalances in US housing market and current account
trade barriers and geopoltical tensions
energy prices (that probably is not much of a thread, gas dropped and oil will not hit 100 in 07)
financial market panic selling
housing market extreme valuations in some regions; hope it can be slowly unwound
current account defecit still requires ongoing massive inflow of global savings
US dollar still dependant on investor sentiment.
China
one graph never realized since 1993 GDP has never been below 7%.
government plan is calls for 7.5% growth each year for the next five years.
they believe growth might drop to 6% GDP, and this may cause problems....(6% is still amazing...)
believe the US will still grow in 2007 but it will be very low 2%.
as for stocks would agree on some large caps, high dividend. lower PE, than the market in general.
thanks
selkirk
