Senors' Leans/Selections Wk 9

Senor Capper

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Early leans as follows:

Tampon Bay - 7.5
Baltimore + 7.5
Philly - 6.5
Chargers - 7.5
Brownies + 3.5
'Zona + 3 ???

& just in time for Halloween.....
Green Bay Fudge Packers - 4


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Action Plays plays are not counted on my record.

My money/record plays are ranked from strongest to weakest
(top to bottom)

Of course they can change in rank
(& probably will) before gametime Sunday depending on the circumstances.


Week # 9 The Week of Opposite Directions

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New York JETS @ San Diego Chargers

Opposite direction game # 1.

The 2-5 Jets must take to the road, following their blowing of that 21-3 lead vs the Brownies (LW) while the host, 6-1 Chargers, are off their bye week.

Jets have been iffy to say the least, for the entire season ranking 27th in the NFL in"O" as well as 31st in "D".

In their 2 wins the Jets have a combined 100-yd deficit.
Also in weeks 3 thru 6 note that NY has allowed 211, 223 & 215 RYs which is absolute fodder for LaDamien (sp) & mates.

San Diego is 7-1 ATS off a SU win over Oakland.

NY is 12-30 ATS in non-division AFC contests.

:director: watch that hook!!
San Diego - 7.5


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Minnesota Vikings @ Strap-on Bay Buccaneers

Opposite direction game # 2

Quite a show by the Vikes LW in their rout of Da Banged-up Bears
Total Domination which included a 24-12 FD edge, a 148-44 RY advantage & a 41:03 - 18:57 time edge.

Minny who is ranked dead last in the TO margin entering that one (-14) actually had a + 2 edge vs Chicago.
Vikings hadn't held an opponent to 7 pts in it's previous 36 games before last weekend.

TB on the otherhand is the cream of the NFL defensive crop, despite its ATS setback vs Panthers. Held Panthers to 9 FDs & 130 yards. Thus over its last 7 games TB has held its foes to 8 ppg.

Bucs are 22-13 ATS at home.
Vikings are 3-9 ATS as a RD & 1-7 ATS on non-division road.


The Buc stops here :nono: Tampa Bay - 7

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Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears

Opposite direction game # 3.

Bears have now dropped 5 straight both SU & ATS. Chicago saw its 7-1 spread run at Minny snap with LWs miserable showing. In that game the Bears had the ball for less than 19 minutes & just manages 44 RYs.
With their latest futility, the Bears have now allowed 29 ppg in their last 5 outings.

This one is a rematch for LYs playoff loss to the Eagles, when McNabb nearly single-handedly wreaked havoc on Chicago's then rock-ribbed "D".

Eagles wins have come by an average of 30pts, BUT the Eagles are 0-2 SU & ATS on the non-division road.

Bears are 10-2 ATS as non-division HDs.

Eagles are 10-3 ATS in Nov.

?guilas De Philadelphia - 7 ;)

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Washington Redskins @ Seattle Seahgs

This one marks Seattles 2nd non-division HG of the season, with the Seahags winning in their 1st such setup 48-23 (Minny).
And it also marks Washingtons 1st RG since being bombarded 30-9 by the Packers.

Easy call for the Hags, right?

Not so fast deputy.

Skins are in off a more than 100 yd edge over Indy.
Washington is a superb 10-1 spread play as a Nov underdog, as well as, 8-1-1 ATS at the NFC West.

Seattle is just 3-11 ATS as a Nov favorite & giving a FG or more Seahags are 4-14-1 ATS in that role lately.


:director: Looking for some "Skin + 3

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Back by popular demand .......Postal Pick@!

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Brownies


A week ago Minnesota became the 1st same season revenge play of the year & came in easily hosting Da Bears.

This is revenge # 2.

Steelers took the Brownies in OT just 5 weeks ago.
Cleveland aint nuttin special but can't overlook coming back from a 21-3 deficit at the Jets, behind Couch's 2nd 300 PY outing.
In that game the Brownies had a 16 minute time edge over NY.

The last 2 times Cleveland hosted Pittsburgh they exchanged 3-pt wins.
Steelers have topped 27 pts in all Maddox starts but aren't the best in this type setup: 6-13 ATS as a grass RF.


Brownies are 6-1-1 ATS as HDs.


Call out the dog catcher.....
Revenging home division dog on loose..
Cleveland + 3.5 & maybe OUTRIGHT !!! kurby <- Dog

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San Francisco 49ers @ Oakland Raiders

A few short weeks ago the Raiders looked to be on a 1 way trip to the SB opening w/ 4 easy wins accompanied by covers of 7, 17, 20 & 15 pts.
That was then this is now....
Oakland has gone 0-3 SU with spread losses of 23, 15 & 12.5 pts.
AMAZING!!!

I believe this is the game that puts them back on the right track.

49ers are in off a 1-pt cover vs the Cardinals. In a game that featured a 5-0 edge in the all-important TO column.
That won't happen with the Raiders & their # 1 rated "O".

Oakland is 13-4 ATS vs the NFC

San Fran is only 1-10 ATS in Nov off a SU won.


:director: Raiders cover the 2.5

Aint going overboard here

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Action plays on;

Bills - 2.5
'Zona + 3.5 (upset?)
Lions - 2.5
Ravens + 7.5

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NFL
Sides 33-22-2
Totals 2-2-0

Best to all

SC
 
Last edited:

Statman02

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if my program is running correctly I show San Diego as the # 2 rushing team in the league and the Jets # 31 at stopping the run.......last week the 5 worst run defenses went 1/4 ats while the 5 best rush offences went 4/1 ats.........I can see what you mean........
 

bej0101

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statman good info..have you tracked the rushing info for the season? if so what are thr results?
 

theGibber1

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i like your write ups and good luck on sunday..

i do have questions about the tampa minny game though..

i like your angle your taking on this game.. but the Buck O is a concern for me.. Vikes D is awful against the pass. but Rank 5th in run defense.. Vikes will stuff the run and make the 2nd and 3rd stringer QBs beat them w/ the pass..Will tampa have a QB that can get the ball downfield?

Bucks have the best D in the NFL ! no doubt there.. but i have to believe that Culpepper and Co. will put up at least a few points..

that being said.. i dont no if the Bucks O will be capable of scoring enough points to cover 7.5.. or they will have to shut out the Vikes completly..
maybe the under is worth consideration..

thoughts?

good luck senor!
 

MrChristo

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Sexlexia...
I jumped on the under when it first came out at 38.5.

Got a bit lucky with King starting maybe, but as theGibber says, Minni's run defense is very under-rated, allowing only 3.8 ypc.
They completely stuffed Chicago last week, and Tampa's rushing isn't that much better.
Like the under ;)
 

Senor Capper

is feeling it
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Cover 7.5 ??

Cover 7.5 ??

Well I believe they will cover the 7.
TB "D" will force turnovers that will give them points or at the least great field position Playing the short field will help out the "O" to put the points on the board even if they are all FGs (LW).

It will be a long day for Daunte, w/ Randy Moss being double covered. He will be forced to run or throw into traffic & we all know what that means ;)

Bucs have allowed only 3 teams double digits all year.

Vikings were nearly shut out by the likes of the Jets 2 weeks ago, they may not score at all against the Bucs
T.B. beat Minnesota at home 6 out of the last 7 years

Brad may play after all.

Would I play TB w/ the hook ?
Probably not.

Best to you guyz
SC
 
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Senor Capper

is feeling it
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badjab said:
Like your picks for the teaser. I placed one earlier (6 pt.) with all those same teams except I added SF +9 and did not include GB.

What a quawinkiedink I pondered the thought of SF + 9 but backed out cause Raiders need this really really bad.
So I took a stab at Rams + 4.:nooo:
 

GlobalTrance

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morning sir ,
"quawinkiedink" , i didn't try to spell it (copy&paste is my friend) . "NO" idea what it means , my bad.:,on the understanding english thing ;) . Have Pitt -4 , (whats a guy to do) , wish you the best best ! Be Well . GT
p.s. does Maddox "seem" to have that "Brady" kind of feel to the season ? ;)
 

Senor Capper

is feeling it
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Top o da mornin to ya GT

Top o da mornin to ya GT

Brownies are by far NOT my best bet, but do like 'em + 3.5. They rank around the Raiders - 2.5 in my plays today.

I may go down down down in a buring ring of fire with my TOP 3 being all favs at - 7 or more.

Steelers are now - 4 ???

Best to you

SC
 
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