BEGINNING THURSDAY AUGUST 24
Houston at Pittsburgh (4) 24th, 25th, 26th, 27th
The Pirates have not had much success against their division rival in 2006 (2-7, -$510 in head to head play with Houston), but three night games at PNC Park could change that. So far this season the Bucs are an improbable 22-7 (+$1850) vs. righthanders in home night games, averaging 5.3 runs per game in those contests. The Astros have had a miserable season because of their anemic offense (.257 team BA, lowest in the NL) and they?ve been at their worst on the road (only 25-34, -$895). Nevertheless, they?ll still be favored when their marquee pitchers are on the hill, and that means great value on the home dog. BEST BET: Pirates vs. righthanders in night games.
Cincinnati at San Francisco (4) 24th, 25th, 26th, 27th
The Reds haven?t been pitching all that well in recent days, but they?ve still got one of the most prolific offenses in baseball, averaging around five runs per game. They?ve made money on the road in 2006 (+$930) and they are well positioned for a playoff spot, either as the wildcard or perhaps as NL Central champs. The Giants have lost money vs. righthanders at ATT Park (-$735) and they?ve got too many teams to climb over to mount a serious challenge, especially with the season rapidly winding down. Aaron Harang (3.74 ERA) and Brandon Arroyo (3.45) will both be on the mound in this series, giving us outstanding value. BEST BET: Harang/Arroyo.
BEGINNING FRIDAY AUGUST 25
Philadelphia at N.Y. Mets (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
We can?t see the Phillies putting together a sustained winning streak and climbing back into the wildcard picture (the NL East is out of the question). But the Phillies slapped the Mets around at Citizens Bank two weeks ago, and could prove an annoyance here at Shea Stadium. They?ve got a quality offense (5.4 runs per game, best in the league) and the Mets are beset with injuries in the starting rotation (5.65 ERA among starters last 10 days). So go with the visitor if the price is inflated. BEST BET: Phillies at +135 or better.
Washington at Atlanta (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Nationals have split 12 games with the Braves and made a decent profit in the process (+$235) and they?ve made money against lefthanders this year (+$415). But they are a lousy road team, and the Atlanta starters have looked better in recent days (3.83 ERA last 10) so caution is advised. But we have to avoid the Braves, a beleaguered team that has performed horribly here at Turner Field in 2006 (25-31, -$1450). Pass for the time being. BEST BET: None.
Milwaukee at Florida (4) 25th, 26th, 27th, 28th
The Brewers are always worth consideration at Miller Park, but they?ve been a disaster on the road this year (23-39, -$1220) so we?ll look for a way to take the Marlins in this four game set. Avoid those Milwaukee southpaws (Florida -$780 vs. lefthanders), but since the Marlins have turned a profit vs. righties (+$845), and the Brewers are one of the poorest pitching teams in the league (4.86 team ERA, 2nd worst) , we?ll stick with the home team as they drive down the season?s final stretch. BEST BET: Marlins vs. righthanders.
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
If the Cardinals fall out of the 2006 playoffs, they can point directly to their unbelievably bad performance against the hapless Chicago Cubs (only 5-11, -$1100 in head to head play). We?ve steered clear of Chicago consistently this year, but they?ve been trying out an assortment of new pitchers, including a couple of lefthanders. St. Louis has lost a fortune vs. southpaws (17-28, -$2180) so why not grab a fat price with a visitor who seems to have St. Louis?s number. BEST BET: Lefthanders vs. the Cardinals.
San Diego at Colorado (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Padres have had a tough time with the Rockies this year (only 5-8, -$495 in head to head play) but they?ve been one of baseball?s more profitable road teams, particularly vs. righthanders (26-17, +$1165). Statistically, the Rockies do match up reasonably well with San Diego (4.10 ERA, .267 BA for Colorado . . . 4.14 ERA, .261 ERA for the Padres), but they have lost money vs. righthanders (-$720) and and we like what we?ve seen of Chris Young (3.78 ERA in 25 starts) since he joined the team this year. BEST BET: C.Young.
L.A. Dodgers at Arizona (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Dodgers appeared poised to run away with the NL West until a few days ago. They are maintaining a slim lead in the division, but Arizona is very much within striking distance. The Diamondbacks have lost money vs. righthanders at Chase Field (-$980) but they?ve done well against lefties (11-5, +$450 with 5.7 runs per game). Mark Hendrickson is likely to get a start, and his efforts since coming to LA have been less than stellar (-$350, 5.19 ERA in nine starts). The Dodgers have been far less effective when venturing away from Chavez Ravine. BEST BET: Diamondbacks vs. Hendrickson.
Tampa Bay at Baltimore (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Devil Rays would love to climb over Baltimore and out of the AL East basement. But time is running short and their 18-45 (-$1740) road record is certainly not encouraging. We will avoid the home team when Tampa Bay starts lefthanders (O?s -$1770 vs. southpaws), but Baltimore has done extremely well against righthanders this year (+$1140 with 5.3 runs per game) and none of the hurlers in the visitor?s rotation give us much cause to be concerned (4.99 team ERA, 3rd worst in the AL). BEST BET: Orioles vs. righthanders.
Detroit at Cleveland (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Indians were supposed to compete with the White Sox for Central division supremacy, but it hasn?t turned out that way (Tribe only 56-67, -$1995 in 2006). Instead, the Tigers emerged as the top team in the AL, with a +$2685 profit that includes a 12-4 (+$765) record against Cleveland. Detroit has stumbled a bit in recent days, but with an MLB best team ERA (3.66) we expect them to bounce back in time to continue their domination of the underachieving Indians. BEST BET: Tigers in all games.
Kansas City at Toronto (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
This looks like a severe mismatch, pitting a 38-24 (+$905) home team with playoff aspirations against a 17-46 (-$730) road team 35 games behind the leader in the AL Central. The only thing to watch out for is the high prices, since the Blue Jays in all likelihood will take at least 2 out of 3. But that might be enough if they are favored by better than 2 to 1, so play these games accordingly. BEST BET: Blue Jays at -180 or less.
Oakland at Texas (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Rangers have been riding a hot streak (8-2, +$685 last 10 days with 6.7 runs per game). But the A?s have been red hot since the All-Star break (8-2, +$490 last 10 days, 2.24 ERA among starters), that bizarre doubleheader loss to Kansas City notwithstanding, and will have a decided edge in righty vs. righty matchups. The A?s are big moneymakers in that situation on the road (+$1135), while Texas has lost money vs. righties at Arlington (-$935). BEST BET: Athletics when righty meets righty.
Minnesota at Chicago W. Sox (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
Huge implications in this one, given that a sweep by the Sox could more or less end the Twins? bid for a playoff berth. Neither is likely to catch Detroit for the division title, but the White Sox are looking sharper these days, while the Twins are struggling to put runs on the board (only 3.4 per game last 10). The loss of Francisco Liriano was a serious blow, and Minnesota?s road record (only 28-31, -$265) is not encouraging. BEST BET: White Sox vs. righthanders.
Boston at Seattle (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Red Sox pitching staff took a brutal beating from the Yankees at Fenway last weekend, and they now rank 4th worst in the AL in ERA (4.84). They?ve dropped a bundle on the road so far (only 30-31, -$790) and are no doubt exhausted after five games in four days with the Yankees and three vs. the Angels, all without a day off. The Mariners have been on a terrible losing streak (0-11, -$1100 last 11 days with a 8.14 ERA among starters, averaging only 3.3 runs per game), and that has effectively ended their hope for a playoff bid. Stay away from these problem plagued clubs. BEST BET: None.
N.Y. Yankees at L.A. Angels (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Angels have been a thorn in New York?s side over the past several seasons, knocking them out of the playoffs twice and getting the best of them in regular season play (4-3, +$240 so far in ?06 . . . 6-4, +$420 in ?05). But the Yankees are going to sidestep Jered Weaver on this trip, and the rest of their starters seem vulnerable. LA has lost money in this ballpark, (-$690 vs. righties), so take a shot with Yankee ace Mike Mussina (3.61 ERA in 27 starts), as the visitor looks to exact a measure of revenge. BEST BET: Mussina.
Houston at Pittsburgh (4) 24th, 25th, 26th, 27th
The Pirates have not had much success against their division rival in 2006 (2-7, -$510 in head to head play with Houston), but three night games at PNC Park could change that. So far this season the Bucs are an improbable 22-7 (+$1850) vs. righthanders in home night games, averaging 5.3 runs per game in those contests. The Astros have had a miserable season because of their anemic offense (.257 team BA, lowest in the NL) and they?ve been at their worst on the road (only 25-34, -$895). Nevertheless, they?ll still be favored when their marquee pitchers are on the hill, and that means great value on the home dog. BEST BET: Pirates vs. righthanders in night games.
Cincinnati at San Francisco (4) 24th, 25th, 26th, 27th
The Reds haven?t been pitching all that well in recent days, but they?ve still got one of the most prolific offenses in baseball, averaging around five runs per game. They?ve made money on the road in 2006 (+$930) and they are well positioned for a playoff spot, either as the wildcard or perhaps as NL Central champs. The Giants have lost money vs. righthanders at ATT Park (-$735) and they?ve got too many teams to climb over to mount a serious challenge, especially with the season rapidly winding down. Aaron Harang (3.74 ERA) and Brandon Arroyo (3.45) will both be on the mound in this series, giving us outstanding value. BEST BET: Harang/Arroyo.
BEGINNING FRIDAY AUGUST 25
Philadelphia at N.Y. Mets (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
We can?t see the Phillies putting together a sustained winning streak and climbing back into the wildcard picture (the NL East is out of the question). But the Phillies slapped the Mets around at Citizens Bank two weeks ago, and could prove an annoyance here at Shea Stadium. They?ve got a quality offense (5.4 runs per game, best in the league) and the Mets are beset with injuries in the starting rotation (5.65 ERA among starters last 10 days). So go with the visitor if the price is inflated. BEST BET: Phillies at +135 or better.
Washington at Atlanta (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Nationals have split 12 games with the Braves and made a decent profit in the process (+$235) and they?ve made money against lefthanders this year (+$415). But they are a lousy road team, and the Atlanta starters have looked better in recent days (3.83 ERA last 10) so caution is advised. But we have to avoid the Braves, a beleaguered team that has performed horribly here at Turner Field in 2006 (25-31, -$1450). Pass for the time being. BEST BET: None.
Milwaukee at Florida (4) 25th, 26th, 27th, 28th
The Brewers are always worth consideration at Miller Park, but they?ve been a disaster on the road this year (23-39, -$1220) so we?ll look for a way to take the Marlins in this four game set. Avoid those Milwaukee southpaws (Florida -$780 vs. lefthanders), but since the Marlins have turned a profit vs. righties (+$845), and the Brewers are one of the poorest pitching teams in the league (4.86 team ERA, 2nd worst) , we?ll stick with the home team as they drive down the season?s final stretch. BEST BET: Marlins vs. righthanders.
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
If the Cardinals fall out of the 2006 playoffs, they can point directly to their unbelievably bad performance against the hapless Chicago Cubs (only 5-11, -$1100 in head to head play). We?ve steered clear of Chicago consistently this year, but they?ve been trying out an assortment of new pitchers, including a couple of lefthanders. St. Louis has lost a fortune vs. southpaws (17-28, -$2180) so why not grab a fat price with a visitor who seems to have St. Louis?s number. BEST BET: Lefthanders vs. the Cardinals.
San Diego at Colorado (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Padres have had a tough time with the Rockies this year (only 5-8, -$495 in head to head play) but they?ve been one of baseball?s more profitable road teams, particularly vs. righthanders (26-17, +$1165). Statistically, the Rockies do match up reasonably well with San Diego (4.10 ERA, .267 BA for Colorado . . . 4.14 ERA, .261 ERA for the Padres), but they have lost money vs. righthanders (-$720) and and we like what we?ve seen of Chris Young (3.78 ERA in 25 starts) since he joined the team this year. BEST BET: C.Young.
L.A. Dodgers at Arizona (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Dodgers appeared poised to run away with the NL West until a few days ago. They are maintaining a slim lead in the division, but Arizona is very much within striking distance. The Diamondbacks have lost money vs. righthanders at Chase Field (-$980) but they?ve done well against lefties (11-5, +$450 with 5.7 runs per game). Mark Hendrickson is likely to get a start, and his efforts since coming to LA have been less than stellar (-$350, 5.19 ERA in nine starts). The Dodgers have been far less effective when venturing away from Chavez Ravine. BEST BET: Diamondbacks vs. Hendrickson.
Tampa Bay at Baltimore (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Devil Rays would love to climb over Baltimore and out of the AL East basement. But time is running short and their 18-45 (-$1740) road record is certainly not encouraging. We will avoid the home team when Tampa Bay starts lefthanders (O?s -$1770 vs. southpaws), but Baltimore has done extremely well against righthanders this year (+$1140 with 5.3 runs per game) and none of the hurlers in the visitor?s rotation give us much cause to be concerned (4.99 team ERA, 3rd worst in the AL). BEST BET: Orioles vs. righthanders.
Detroit at Cleveland (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Indians were supposed to compete with the White Sox for Central division supremacy, but it hasn?t turned out that way (Tribe only 56-67, -$1995 in 2006). Instead, the Tigers emerged as the top team in the AL, with a +$2685 profit that includes a 12-4 (+$765) record against Cleveland. Detroit has stumbled a bit in recent days, but with an MLB best team ERA (3.66) we expect them to bounce back in time to continue their domination of the underachieving Indians. BEST BET: Tigers in all games.
Kansas City at Toronto (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
This looks like a severe mismatch, pitting a 38-24 (+$905) home team with playoff aspirations against a 17-46 (-$730) road team 35 games behind the leader in the AL Central. The only thing to watch out for is the high prices, since the Blue Jays in all likelihood will take at least 2 out of 3. But that might be enough if they are favored by better than 2 to 1, so play these games accordingly. BEST BET: Blue Jays at -180 or less.
Oakland at Texas (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Rangers have been riding a hot streak (8-2, +$685 last 10 days with 6.7 runs per game). But the A?s have been red hot since the All-Star break (8-2, +$490 last 10 days, 2.24 ERA among starters), that bizarre doubleheader loss to Kansas City notwithstanding, and will have a decided edge in righty vs. righty matchups. The A?s are big moneymakers in that situation on the road (+$1135), while Texas has lost money vs. righties at Arlington (-$935). BEST BET: Athletics when righty meets righty.
Minnesota at Chicago W. Sox (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
Huge implications in this one, given that a sweep by the Sox could more or less end the Twins? bid for a playoff berth. Neither is likely to catch Detroit for the division title, but the White Sox are looking sharper these days, while the Twins are struggling to put runs on the board (only 3.4 per game last 10). The loss of Francisco Liriano was a serious blow, and Minnesota?s road record (only 28-31, -$265) is not encouraging. BEST BET: White Sox vs. righthanders.
Boston at Seattle (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Red Sox pitching staff took a brutal beating from the Yankees at Fenway last weekend, and they now rank 4th worst in the AL in ERA (4.84). They?ve dropped a bundle on the road so far (only 30-31, -$790) and are no doubt exhausted after five games in four days with the Yankees and three vs. the Angels, all without a day off. The Mariners have been on a terrible losing streak (0-11, -$1100 last 11 days with a 8.14 ERA among starters, averaging only 3.3 runs per game), and that has effectively ended their hope for a playoff bid. Stay away from these problem plagued clubs. BEST BET: None.
N.Y. Yankees at L.A. Angels (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Angels have been a thorn in New York?s side over the past several seasons, knocking them out of the playoffs twice and getting the best of them in regular season play (4-3, +$240 so far in ?06 . . . 6-4, +$420 in ?05). But the Yankees are going to sidestep Jered Weaver on this trip, and the rest of their starters seem vulnerable. LA has lost money in this ballpark, (-$690 vs. righties), so take a shot with Yankee ace Mike Mussina (3.61 ERA in 27 starts), as the visitor looks to exact a measure of revenge. BEST BET: Mussina.
