Boston at N.Y. Yankees (3) 3rd, 6th, 7th
The Red Sox may have ultimately snapped their 86 year dry spell with a 2004 world Series win, but they struggled on the road throughout the regular season (-$1180) and they racked up substantial losses against lefthanders (-$990). That would suggest a play on the revenge thirsty Yankees in a Randy Johnson/David Wells opening night matchup (NY 22-6, +$1105 vs. southpaws at home). But the line will no doubt top 2 to 1 and Wells has too good a history playing in Yankee Stadium to lay that kind of price. We prefer to play on New York in other matchups if the price isn?t too high. PREFERRED: Yankees at -140 or less when righty meets righty.
BEGINNING MONDAY APRIL 4
Milwaukee at Pittsburgh (2) 4th, 6th
Ben Sheets had a remarkable ERA in 2004 (2.70 in 34 starts) and may well be posted as a road favorite in the opener. But his efforts didn?t translate into very many victories, particularly on the road (only 6-11, -$400). The Pirates dominated the Brewers in head to head play last year (12-6, +$760) and managed to turn a profit with a .500 record here at PNC Park (+$435). We?ll take them against the Milwaukee ace and when they send their top lefty Oliver Perez to the hill (+$745, 2.99 ERA), though we won?t be surprised to see them squaring off in the first game. PREFERRED: Perez/Pirates vs. Sheets.
N.Y. Mets at Cincinnati (3) 4th, 6th, 7th
The Mets will be tough in the opener with P.J taking the hill, but the Reds look like an excellent value in the two remaining games. NY was a dismal 20-33 in night games on the road last year (-$865) while Cincinnati posted a solid +$535 in night games at Great American Ballpark and a profit of +$1305 overall. Paul Wilson (+$680) and Aaron Harang (+$1065) were moneymakers in ?04 (+$680) and the addition of Eric Milton and Ramon Ortiz will bolster the rotation, assuming the latter is healthy. Look for the home team to prevail once they get past Martinez. PREFERRED: Reds in night games.
Washington at Philadelphia (3) 4th, 6th, 7th
The Phillies were hampered by one of the NL?s weaker pitching staffs last year (4.45 ERA, 4th worst in the league) and we?re not sure Jon Lieber & Corey Lidle will offer much improvement, given the losses of Kevin Millwood and Eric Milton. They dropped a bundle in 2004 home games (-$1045) and could be vulnerable against the relocated Expos, who turned a profit in road games last year (+$465). We?ll try our luck with a pair of quality Washington hurlers looking to bounce back from sub-par 2004 seasons. PREFERRED: Hernandez/Loaiza.
San Diego at Colorado (2) 4th, 6th
Jake Peavy is expected to start the opener after missing some time in spring training, and he?ll be difficult for the Rockies to deal with. His 2004 numbers were phenomenal (+1160, $2.27 ERA in 27 starts) and San Diego was one of baseball?s most profitable road franchises (+$1275). Colorado starts its 13th season with another sorrowful pitching staff (5.54 ERA in ?04, worst in the majors) and we haven?t lost sight of their poor showing vs. righthanders at Coors Field (23-36, -$1325). PREFERRED: Peavy.
Chicago Cubs at Arizona (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Cubs were big losers against righthanders in 2004 (-$2160) and with Prior & Woods struggling to overcome injuries before the regular season gets underway, we might steal a few wins with the revamped Diamondbacks. Brandon Webb posted an ERA under 3.00 in 17 starts at Bank One Ballpark and ex-Yankee Javier Vazquez should benefit from a return to the NL and a less pressure-filled environment. PREFERRED: Webb/Vazquez.
Kansas City at Detroit (3) 4th, 6th, 7th
The Royals (58-104, -$2740 in 2004 with an AL Worst 5.15 team ERA) look to be in pretty sad shape, with much of what little pitching they have (Anderson, Affeldt) plagued by injuries. The Tigers have become a fashionable choice to challenge in the AL Central, but they lost money at Comerica Park last year (-$870) and dropped 11 of 19 head to head contests with KC (-$740). We don?t want to get burned by the visitor, so we?ll sit this one out. PREFERRED: None.
Oakland at Baltimore (3) 4th, 6th, 7th
The Orioles were terrible against lefties last year (only 22-29, -$1030) and their numbers against righthanders at Camden Yards were bleak as well (24-31, -$1085), so this doesn?t look like much of a spot for the home team. The A?s had some problems on the road, but their numbers against lefthanders are encouraging (+$460 with 5.0 runs per game) so we?ll use the visitor when Baltimore sends one of their young southpaws to the hill. PREFERRED: Athletics vs. lefthanders.
Cleveland at Chicago W. Sox (3) 4th, 6th, 7th
These teams matched up evenly in 2004, with Chicago eking out a 10-9 mark in head to head play. They key for us is that both teams were sensational against righthanders (Indians +$1335, Sox +$1725) but terrible against lefthanders (Indians -$1175, Chicago -$2030). We?ll play this series accordingly, passing on any matchup in which righty meets righty or when southpaws square off. PREFERRED: Lefthanders when opposed by righthanders.
Toronto at Tampa Bay (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Blue Jays 2004 collapse helped the Devil Rays climb out of last place for a 4th place finish, the first time that feat was accomplished in franchise history. Losing Carlos Delgado won?t do much to bolster one of the league?s weakest offenses (.260 team BA, 719 total runs) and that 27-53 (-$1565) road record makes them unusable here. Tampa Bay posted nice numbers at Tropicana Field (+$790) and should be available at decent prices throughout this series. They should take at least 2 out of 3. PREFERRED: Devil Rays in all games.
Minnesota at Seattle (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Twins (+$1820 in ?04) come into the 2005 with very high expectations, and that could be a problem if they get off to a slow start like they did last year. The Mariners on the other hand could be poised for a rebound after their disastrous 2004 (-$2930), having added Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre to an offense that scored the fewest runs in the AL last year. We?re going to take a close look at these matchups on game day before we commit ourselves. PREFERRED: None.
The Red Sox may have ultimately snapped their 86 year dry spell with a 2004 world Series win, but they struggled on the road throughout the regular season (-$1180) and they racked up substantial losses against lefthanders (-$990). That would suggest a play on the revenge thirsty Yankees in a Randy Johnson/David Wells opening night matchup (NY 22-6, +$1105 vs. southpaws at home). But the line will no doubt top 2 to 1 and Wells has too good a history playing in Yankee Stadium to lay that kind of price. We prefer to play on New York in other matchups if the price isn?t too high. PREFERRED: Yankees at -140 or less when righty meets righty.
BEGINNING MONDAY APRIL 4
Milwaukee at Pittsburgh (2) 4th, 6th
Ben Sheets had a remarkable ERA in 2004 (2.70 in 34 starts) and may well be posted as a road favorite in the opener. But his efforts didn?t translate into very many victories, particularly on the road (only 6-11, -$400). The Pirates dominated the Brewers in head to head play last year (12-6, +$760) and managed to turn a profit with a .500 record here at PNC Park (+$435). We?ll take them against the Milwaukee ace and when they send their top lefty Oliver Perez to the hill (+$745, 2.99 ERA), though we won?t be surprised to see them squaring off in the first game. PREFERRED: Perez/Pirates vs. Sheets.
N.Y. Mets at Cincinnati (3) 4th, 6th, 7th
The Mets will be tough in the opener with P.J taking the hill, but the Reds look like an excellent value in the two remaining games. NY was a dismal 20-33 in night games on the road last year (-$865) while Cincinnati posted a solid +$535 in night games at Great American Ballpark and a profit of +$1305 overall. Paul Wilson (+$680) and Aaron Harang (+$1065) were moneymakers in ?04 (+$680) and the addition of Eric Milton and Ramon Ortiz will bolster the rotation, assuming the latter is healthy. Look for the home team to prevail once they get past Martinez. PREFERRED: Reds in night games.
Washington at Philadelphia (3) 4th, 6th, 7th
The Phillies were hampered by one of the NL?s weaker pitching staffs last year (4.45 ERA, 4th worst in the league) and we?re not sure Jon Lieber & Corey Lidle will offer much improvement, given the losses of Kevin Millwood and Eric Milton. They dropped a bundle in 2004 home games (-$1045) and could be vulnerable against the relocated Expos, who turned a profit in road games last year (+$465). We?ll try our luck with a pair of quality Washington hurlers looking to bounce back from sub-par 2004 seasons. PREFERRED: Hernandez/Loaiza.
San Diego at Colorado (2) 4th, 6th
Jake Peavy is expected to start the opener after missing some time in spring training, and he?ll be difficult for the Rockies to deal with. His 2004 numbers were phenomenal (+1160, $2.27 ERA in 27 starts) and San Diego was one of baseball?s most profitable road franchises (+$1275). Colorado starts its 13th season with another sorrowful pitching staff (5.54 ERA in ?04, worst in the majors) and we haven?t lost sight of their poor showing vs. righthanders at Coors Field (23-36, -$1325). PREFERRED: Peavy.
Chicago Cubs at Arizona (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Cubs were big losers against righthanders in 2004 (-$2160) and with Prior & Woods struggling to overcome injuries before the regular season gets underway, we might steal a few wins with the revamped Diamondbacks. Brandon Webb posted an ERA under 3.00 in 17 starts at Bank One Ballpark and ex-Yankee Javier Vazquez should benefit from a return to the NL and a less pressure-filled environment. PREFERRED: Webb/Vazquez.
Kansas City at Detroit (3) 4th, 6th, 7th
The Royals (58-104, -$2740 in 2004 with an AL Worst 5.15 team ERA) look to be in pretty sad shape, with much of what little pitching they have (Anderson, Affeldt) plagued by injuries. The Tigers have become a fashionable choice to challenge in the AL Central, but they lost money at Comerica Park last year (-$870) and dropped 11 of 19 head to head contests with KC (-$740). We don?t want to get burned by the visitor, so we?ll sit this one out. PREFERRED: None.
Oakland at Baltimore (3) 4th, 6th, 7th
The Orioles were terrible against lefties last year (only 22-29, -$1030) and their numbers against righthanders at Camden Yards were bleak as well (24-31, -$1085), so this doesn?t look like much of a spot for the home team. The A?s had some problems on the road, but their numbers against lefthanders are encouraging (+$460 with 5.0 runs per game) so we?ll use the visitor when Baltimore sends one of their young southpaws to the hill. PREFERRED: Athletics vs. lefthanders.
Cleveland at Chicago W. Sox (3) 4th, 6th, 7th
These teams matched up evenly in 2004, with Chicago eking out a 10-9 mark in head to head play. They key for us is that both teams were sensational against righthanders (Indians +$1335, Sox +$1725) but terrible against lefthanders (Indians -$1175, Chicago -$2030). We?ll play this series accordingly, passing on any matchup in which righty meets righty or when southpaws square off. PREFERRED: Lefthanders when opposed by righthanders.
Toronto at Tampa Bay (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Blue Jays 2004 collapse helped the Devil Rays climb out of last place for a 4th place finish, the first time that feat was accomplished in franchise history. Losing Carlos Delgado won?t do much to bolster one of the league?s weakest offenses (.260 team BA, 719 total runs) and that 27-53 (-$1565) road record makes them unusable here. Tampa Bay posted nice numbers at Tropicana Field (+$790) and should be available at decent prices throughout this series. They should take at least 2 out of 3. PREFERRED: Devil Rays in all games.
Minnesota at Seattle (3) 4th, 5th, 6th
The Twins (+$1820 in ?04) come into the 2005 with very high expectations, and that could be a problem if they get off to a slow start like they did last year. The Mariners on the other hand could be poised for a rebound after their disastrous 2004 (-$2930), having added Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre to an offense that scored the fewest runs in the AL last year. We?re going to take a close look at these matchups on game day before we commit ourselves. PREFERRED: None.
