BEGINNING THURSDAY JULY 6
Cincinnati at Atlanta (4) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th
The Reds are holding steady in the NL Central, aided to a large extent by the recent collapse of the Cardinals. They?ve got one of the better offenses in the league (5.1 runs per game) and they?ll get starts in this final series before the All-Star break from Brandon Arroyo (+$605, 2.58 ERA in 17 starts) and Aaron Harang (+$420, 3.45 ERA in 17 starts). At 13 games back the Braves are dead in the water, and their numbers vs. righthanders are appalling (-$1985 so far in ?06). BEST BET: Arroyo/Harang.
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (4) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th
The Brewers have used 12 different starting pitchers in the first half, so needless to say things aren?t exactly working out (5.07 team ERA, worst in the NL). They?ve played well at Miller Park (+$540) and the Cubs do look like an easy target (30-51, -$2215), but there just aren?t too many pitchers in the Milwaukee rotation who inspire much confidence. The lone exception is Chris Capuano (+$530, 3.45 ERA in 18 starts) who should fare well vs. a Chicago team that averages a mere 3.8 runs per game vs. southpaws. BEST BET: Capuano.
St. Louis at Houston (4) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th
These teams were swept in the World Series in 2004 & 2005 respectively, and they were decimated by the AL in recently completed inter-league play, so there isn?t much that?s positive we can point to right now. With Mark Mulder on the DL the Cardinals are really struggling on the mound (5.60 ERA among starters last 10 days). But the Astros have terrible numbers vs. righthanders (-$1200) and that is all they?ll see here. We?ll pass for the time being. BEST BET: None.
San Francisco at L.A. Dodgers (4) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th
There isn?t much separating these teams in the standings, they?ve split the first six head to head contests this year, and the team ERA?s are nearly identical. But the Dodgers are far more effective at the plate (.280 team BA with 5.3 runs per game for LA, best in the league, vs. .259 BA with 4.6 runs per game for the Giants) so we?ll avoid the visitor throughout. We?ll look for newly acquired Mark Hendrickson to snag a victory vs. an SF team that is 3-6 (-$295) vs. lefthanders on the road. BEST BET: Hendrickson.
Toronto at Kansas City (4) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th
The Royals (5.84 team ERA, highest in the league) are the ideal punching bag for a surging visitor that checks in with a 2.96 team BA, while averaging 5.5 runs per game). The Blue Jays (7-3, +$280 last 10 days) are poised to move ahead of the Yankees and challenge Boston in the AL East. BEST BET: Blue Jays in all games.
L.A. Angels at Oakland (4) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th
This is a hard series to read, because on paper the Angels appear to be well matched vs. the A?s (4.17 ERA for Oakland, 4.21 for LA . . 356 total runs for the A?s, 364 for the Angels). Don?t know why the visitor is six games behind in the standings with a record seven games below .500. We?re going to wait and take a closer look at the specific pitching matchups on game day. BEST BET: None.
BEGINNING FRIDAY JULY 7
San Diego at Washington (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
After a brief upsurge the Nationals have fallen on hard times once again (3-6, -$330 last 10 days with only 3.1 runs per game), and could have a tough time scoring runs vs. the Padres, who check in with the lowest ERA in the NL (3.92). San Diego has an all-righty rotation that can punish the weak Washington bats (Nationala only 11-19, -$820 vs. righties at RFK) and they are 16-9 (+$885) vs. righthanders in road games this year. Play this series accordingly. BEST BET: Padres vs. righthanders.
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
The Pirates aren?t just bad (28-55, -$2325) but they are unlucky as well, a pretty deadly combination if you want to back them. But the Phillies have fallen apart going into the All-Star break (2-7, -$395 last 10 days) and their numbers here at Citizens Bank Ballpark are not encouraging (18-23, -$1130). Brett Myers, their only reliable starter, has taken a ?leave of absence? following charges of domestic abuse, and the team is now below Florida in the standings and fading fast. Stay away from this mess of a series. BEST BET: None.
Florida at N.Y. Mets (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
The Mets survived a brutal June schedule to move 11 games up in the NL East and we seriously doubt they?ll face any threat to their playoff berth between now and October. So don?t be surprised if they start dropping games against hungry young teams like the Marlins, who?ll be sending a pair of very promising young hurlers to the hill in Josh Johnson (+$375, 2.09 ERA in 11 starts) and Ricky Nolsaco (2.94 ERA in 8 starts). The Mets have lost money vs. righties at Shea Stadium (-$385) in 2006. BEST BET: Jo. Johnson/Nolsaco.
Arizona at Colorado (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
The D?backs fell quickly from grace when the Jason Grimsley/ growth hormone scandal erupted in the headlines, falling to a 40-42 last place mark. But they still have a pair of pitchers who appeal to us. Brandon Webb checks in with a 2.72 ERA after 18 starts. Miguel Batista has been winning load of money (+$720 overall) and he?s led Arizona to wins in six of his nine road starts, with an ERA just over 4.00. The Rockies? run production is soft for a team that plays half its games at Coors Field (only 4.6 per game). We?ll look for the visitor to go into the break on a high note. BEST BET: Webb/Batista.
Baltimore at Cleveland (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
The Baltimore starters have been showing signs of improvement, and we look for the O?s to put together a good second half. They?ve posted a profit against righties (+$1210 with 5.3 runs per game), while the Indians have lost a bundle in that spot (-$1055). The Tribe is hopelessly behind in the AL Central, and with the league?s 2nd worst bullpen (5.16 ERA) the rest of the season could get ugly. BEST BET: Orioles when righty meets righty.
N.Y. Yankees at Tampa Bay (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
The Yankees cannot afford a poor showing vs. last place Tampa Bay given their precarious position in the AL playoff chase. But prices will be astronomical and NY has not fared well vs. righties (-$1045 overall), while the Devil Rays have turned a profit vs. righthanders in this ballpark (+$525). We?ll try to cash some big tickets with the home dog. BEST BET: Devil Rays when righty meets righty.
Minnesota at Texas (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
The Twins went on a 17-1 run but only picked up two games in the standings. When was the last time that happened? Stick with the red-hot visitor, even though their road numbers aren?t great, when righthanders square off at Arlington (Texas -$790 at home, Twins +$1450 overall). BEST BET: Twins when righty meets righty.
Boston at Chicago W. Sox (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
First meeting since the Red Sox were swept away by Chicago in the ALDS last October. Hard to find much fault with Boston, but they are in the red vs. lefthanders (5-7, -$350 as visitors) and Mark Buehrle is having a sensational season (+$560, 3.86 ERA in 17 starts). The White Sox are a stellar 29-11 (+$1210) so far this year at U.S. Cellular. BEST BET: Buehrle.
Detroit at Seattle (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
In a year full of surprises, the Tigers are the story of the year. (56-25, +$2710 overall). Their pitching is superb (3.47 ERA, best in the majors) and while Seattle has improved greatly, they are still only 8-16 (-$1060) vs. lefthanders. They?ll be seeing a good one when Nate Robertson (+$385, 3.14) takes his turn. BEST BET: Robertson.
Cincinnati at Atlanta (4) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th
The Reds are holding steady in the NL Central, aided to a large extent by the recent collapse of the Cardinals. They?ve got one of the better offenses in the league (5.1 runs per game) and they?ll get starts in this final series before the All-Star break from Brandon Arroyo (+$605, 2.58 ERA in 17 starts) and Aaron Harang (+$420, 3.45 ERA in 17 starts). At 13 games back the Braves are dead in the water, and their numbers vs. righthanders are appalling (-$1985 so far in ?06). BEST BET: Arroyo/Harang.
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (4) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th
The Brewers have used 12 different starting pitchers in the first half, so needless to say things aren?t exactly working out (5.07 team ERA, worst in the NL). They?ve played well at Miller Park (+$540) and the Cubs do look like an easy target (30-51, -$2215), but there just aren?t too many pitchers in the Milwaukee rotation who inspire much confidence. The lone exception is Chris Capuano (+$530, 3.45 ERA in 18 starts) who should fare well vs. a Chicago team that averages a mere 3.8 runs per game vs. southpaws. BEST BET: Capuano.
St. Louis at Houston (4) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th
These teams were swept in the World Series in 2004 & 2005 respectively, and they were decimated by the AL in recently completed inter-league play, so there isn?t much that?s positive we can point to right now. With Mark Mulder on the DL the Cardinals are really struggling on the mound (5.60 ERA among starters last 10 days). But the Astros have terrible numbers vs. righthanders (-$1200) and that is all they?ll see here. We?ll pass for the time being. BEST BET: None.
San Francisco at L.A. Dodgers (4) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th
There isn?t much separating these teams in the standings, they?ve split the first six head to head contests this year, and the team ERA?s are nearly identical. But the Dodgers are far more effective at the plate (.280 team BA with 5.3 runs per game for LA, best in the league, vs. .259 BA with 4.6 runs per game for the Giants) so we?ll avoid the visitor throughout. We?ll look for newly acquired Mark Hendrickson to snag a victory vs. an SF team that is 3-6 (-$295) vs. lefthanders on the road. BEST BET: Hendrickson.
Toronto at Kansas City (4) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th
The Royals (5.84 team ERA, highest in the league) are the ideal punching bag for a surging visitor that checks in with a 2.96 team BA, while averaging 5.5 runs per game). The Blue Jays (7-3, +$280 last 10 days) are poised to move ahead of the Yankees and challenge Boston in the AL East. BEST BET: Blue Jays in all games.
L.A. Angels at Oakland (4) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th
This is a hard series to read, because on paper the Angels appear to be well matched vs. the A?s (4.17 ERA for Oakland, 4.21 for LA . . 356 total runs for the A?s, 364 for the Angels). Don?t know why the visitor is six games behind in the standings with a record seven games below .500. We?re going to wait and take a closer look at the specific pitching matchups on game day. BEST BET: None.
BEGINNING FRIDAY JULY 7
San Diego at Washington (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
After a brief upsurge the Nationals have fallen on hard times once again (3-6, -$330 last 10 days with only 3.1 runs per game), and could have a tough time scoring runs vs. the Padres, who check in with the lowest ERA in the NL (3.92). San Diego has an all-righty rotation that can punish the weak Washington bats (Nationala only 11-19, -$820 vs. righties at RFK) and they are 16-9 (+$885) vs. righthanders in road games this year. Play this series accordingly. BEST BET: Padres vs. righthanders.
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
The Pirates aren?t just bad (28-55, -$2325) but they are unlucky as well, a pretty deadly combination if you want to back them. But the Phillies have fallen apart going into the All-Star break (2-7, -$395 last 10 days) and their numbers here at Citizens Bank Ballpark are not encouraging (18-23, -$1130). Brett Myers, their only reliable starter, has taken a ?leave of absence? following charges of domestic abuse, and the team is now below Florida in the standings and fading fast. Stay away from this mess of a series. BEST BET: None.
Florida at N.Y. Mets (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
The Mets survived a brutal June schedule to move 11 games up in the NL East and we seriously doubt they?ll face any threat to their playoff berth between now and October. So don?t be surprised if they start dropping games against hungry young teams like the Marlins, who?ll be sending a pair of very promising young hurlers to the hill in Josh Johnson (+$375, 2.09 ERA in 11 starts) and Ricky Nolsaco (2.94 ERA in 8 starts). The Mets have lost money vs. righties at Shea Stadium (-$385) in 2006. BEST BET: Jo. Johnson/Nolsaco.
Arizona at Colorado (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
The D?backs fell quickly from grace when the Jason Grimsley/ growth hormone scandal erupted in the headlines, falling to a 40-42 last place mark. But they still have a pair of pitchers who appeal to us. Brandon Webb checks in with a 2.72 ERA after 18 starts. Miguel Batista has been winning load of money (+$720 overall) and he?s led Arizona to wins in six of his nine road starts, with an ERA just over 4.00. The Rockies? run production is soft for a team that plays half its games at Coors Field (only 4.6 per game). We?ll look for the visitor to go into the break on a high note. BEST BET: Webb/Batista.
Baltimore at Cleveland (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
The Baltimore starters have been showing signs of improvement, and we look for the O?s to put together a good second half. They?ve posted a profit against righties (+$1210 with 5.3 runs per game), while the Indians have lost a bundle in that spot (-$1055). The Tribe is hopelessly behind in the AL Central, and with the league?s 2nd worst bullpen (5.16 ERA) the rest of the season could get ugly. BEST BET: Orioles when righty meets righty.
N.Y. Yankees at Tampa Bay (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
The Yankees cannot afford a poor showing vs. last place Tampa Bay given their precarious position in the AL playoff chase. But prices will be astronomical and NY has not fared well vs. righties (-$1045 overall), while the Devil Rays have turned a profit vs. righthanders in this ballpark (+$525). We?ll try to cash some big tickets with the home dog. BEST BET: Devil Rays when righty meets righty.
Minnesota at Texas (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
The Twins went on a 17-1 run but only picked up two games in the standings. When was the last time that happened? Stick with the red-hot visitor, even though their road numbers aren?t great, when righthanders square off at Arlington (Texas -$790 at home, Twins +$1450 overall). BEST BET: Twins when righty meets righty.
Boston at Chicago W. Sox (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
First meeting since the Red Sox were swept away by Chicago in the ALDS last October. Hard to find much fault with Boston, but they are in the red vs. lefthanders (5-7, -$350 as visitors) and Mark Buehrle is having a sensational season (+$560, 3.86 ERA in 17 starts). The White Sox are a stellar 29-11 (+$1210) so far this year at U.S. Cellular. BEST BET: Buehrle.
Detroit at Seattle (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
In a year full of surprises, the Tigers are the story of the year. (56-25, +$2710 overall). Their pitching is superb (3.47 ERA, best in the majors) and while Seattle has improved greatly, they are still only 8-16 (-$1060) vs. lefthanders. They?ll be seeing a good one when Nate Robertson (+$385, 3.14) takes his turn. BEST BET: Robertson.
