BEGINNING THURSDAY JULY 13
Houston at Florida (4) 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th
The Astros have not played well and are fortunate that St. Louis has fallen on hard times, giving Houston a shot at another of their patented second half comebacks. Their offense is anemic (.255 team BA, lowest in the league), their starting pitching inconsistent, and their bullpen ERA is 5th highest in the NL (4.56). They?ve been lousy on the road (15-24, -$865) and will have their hands full with a Florida team that has played the best baseball in the NL over the past six weeks. The Marlins are profitable vs. righthanders (+$530) so we?ll use their top hurlers whenever they face off against one. BEST BET: Willis, Olsen & Jo. Johnson vs. righthanders.
Colorado at Cincinnati (4) 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th
After seeing the Rockies rated dead last in team ERA year after year, it is remarkable to see them with the third lowest ERA in the NL this season (4.27). They?ve fared well on the road this year (+$805) and will no doubt command some very favorable underdog prices here at Great American Ballpark. The Reds are having a better than expected season, but their pitching has faltered in recent days (7.30 ERA last 10) and they?ve lost quite a bit of money at home (-$800 overall). Jason Jennings (3.67 ERA) and Aaron Cook (3.72) have looked sharp, and Cincinnati only averages 4.6 runs per game against righthanders. BEST BET: Jennings/Cook.
L.A. Dodgers at St. Louis (4) 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th
The Dodgers have struggled on the road, but the acquisition of Mark Hendrickson gives LA a reliable southpaw (3.96 ERA in 15 starts) who can shut down a St. Louis team that has been a disaster against lefthanders, particularly here at Busch Stadium (6-11, -$1170). But they?ve dominated righthanders in this ballpark (20-6, +$925) so stick with staff ace Chris Carpenter (2.92 ERA in 17 starts) and Anthony Reyes (3.86 in six starts since joining the rotation). BEST BET: Hendrickson/Carpenter & Reyes vs. righthanders.
Kansas City at Detroit (4) 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th
The Royals went into the All-Star break following their best stretch of the season, winning 6 of 11 (+$525) with an average of 6.5 runs per game. But their pitching was as horrible as ever (5.80 overall ERA) and now they go up against a Detroit team that has swept all eight head to head meetings so far in 2006 (+$800). We expect more of the same when these teams square off at Comerica this weekend, and going against KC?s 7-26 record on the road vs. righthanders (-$950 with only 2.6 runs per game) is tempting. But prices could exceed 3 to 1 so it?s hard to jump in. BEST BET: None.
Oakland at Boston (4) 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th
The A?s are still on top in the AL West thanks to solid starting pitching (4.20 team ERA, 3rd best in the AL), but their anemic offense (.243 team BA with only 4.3 runs per game) is preventing them from opening up a lead in this weak division. The Red Sox have been dominant at Fenway, particularly vs. righties (20-5, +$1275 with 6.6 runs per game) and the addition of Jon Lester (+$445, 3.06 ERA in six starts) to the rotation will make it tough on the rest of the contenders for the AL East title (A?s averaging just 3.8 runs per game vs. southpaws). BEST BET: Lester/Red Sox vs. righthanders.
Texas at Baltimore (4) 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th
The Rangers have done very well against lefthanded pitching this year, including a 6-2 (+$530) record in road games, with 6.4 runs per game, but they?ve lost money against righthanders (-$625 overall). The Orioles are just the opposite, posting solid profits vs. righties (+$1230 with 5.3 runs per game) while getting shut down by southpaws (8-22, -$1560 with only 4.0 runs per game). We?ll play this series accordingly. BEST BET: Orioles when righty meets righty/Rangers when lefty meets lefty.
Cleveland at Minnesota (4) 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th
The Tribe took 4 out of 5 in head to head play earlier this year (+$305) but that was before the Twins caught fire. With Johan Santana in top form (+$745, 2.95 ERA in 19 starts) and Francisco Liriano posting wins in 9 of his 10 starts (+$825, 1.36 ERA), this team has a chance to make up ground in the AL Central and possibly climb back into the playoff mix. Minnesota is 30-10 (+$2080) at the Metrodome while the Indians are just 17-24 (-$935) as visitors this year. Prices may be high, but everything points towards a big weekend for the home team in this series. BEST BET: Santana/Liriano.
BEGINNING FRIDAY JULY 14
N.Y. Mets at Chicago Cubs (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
It?s been a rough year for the Cubs (34-54, -$1855) and it won?t get easier with the NL?s top team rolling into Wrigley following the All-Star break. The Mets still have the 2nd lowest team ERA in the league (4.03) despite a number of injuries to the starting rotation and their road numbers this year are very solid (+$715). It?s unclear how hard the Mets will push it now that they?ve opened up such a commanding lead in the NL East, with no real challenger on the horizon. But if the prices on these games stay in line, New York is certainly worth a shot. BEST BET: Mets at -150 or less.
Washington at Pittsburgh (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
The Pirates are just 6-24 (-$1825) vs. lefties, so we?ll take a shot with Michael O?Connor (3.23 ERA in six road games) under any circumstances. Another problem for the Bucs is their pitiful record in day games (6-24, -$1745), so go with Washington in Sunday?s finale. But Pittsburgh has posted a solid 14-6 in night games vs. righties at PNC Park (+$1045 with 5.8 runs per game), and the Nats are only 12-22 (-$540) in night games on the road. BEST BET: O?Connor/Pirates vs. righthanders in night games/Nationals in day games.
Milwaukee at Arizona (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
The Brewers are overachieving with a record around .500, considering they?ve got the highest team ERA in the NL (5.04) and their offense (.261 team BA with 4.5 runs per game) ranks near the bottom of the league as well. They?ve not been successful as a visitor in ?06 (15-26, -$850) so we?ll take a shot with a pair of Arizona hurlers who have had success this year (Webb 2.65 ERA in 19 starts, Batista +$840 in 18 starts), even though the Diamondbacks struggled in the weeks leading up to the All-Star break. BEST BET: Webb/Batista.
Atlanta at San Diego (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
The Padres have the lowest team ERA in the NL (3.91) and they?ve opened up a modest division lead, but they?ll need to improve their record at Petco Park, where they?ve lost more game than they?ve won (23-24, -$795). Veteran hurlers Woody Williams (+$510, 3.14 ERA in nine starts), Chan Ho Park (+$540 , 4.31 ERA in 16 starts) along with the impressive Chris Young (+$280, 3.12 in 18 starts) look like the three best candidates to post wins at home. Use any of them against the hapless Braves, who are going nowhere in 2006 (31-39, -$1560 vs. righties). BEST BET: Williams/Park/Young.
Philadelphia at San Francisco (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
The Giants were swept by a hot Phillies? team earlier in the year (0-3, -$300) but the visitor has fallen well off the pace since then, making them one of the biggest money-burners in the league this season (only 39-47, -$1470). The Giants are battling it out in that five team race in the NL West, but they?ve had trouble handling righthanded pitching thais year, so caution is advised. The best chance they have is if Philadelphia sends one of its lefthanders to the hill, given SF?s 8-2 (+$505) record vs. southpaws at ATT Park. Otherwise, we?ll stay away from this one. BEST BET: Giants vs. lefthanders.
Seattle at Toronto (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
The Blue Jays are having a terrific season, and are doing their best work here at Skydome vs. righthanders (23-11, +$1130), though it will be hard to get back into the playoff picture given the strong competition in the AL this year. The Mariners had been moving up in the standings very nicely, but they?ve struggled offensively in recent days (3-7, -$550 with 2.6 runs per game last 10) and their numbers vs. lefthanders remain as bad as ever (9-16, -$955 with only 3.6 runs per game). We?ll take a shot with Ted Lilly, who should see action this weekend, as long as a righthander is on the hill for the visitor. BEST BET: Lilly if opposed by a righthander.
Chicago W. Sox at N.Y. Yankees (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
This is a tough assignment for the Yankees, taking on the defending Champs after having lost a fortune in home games against righthanders (-$1050). The White Sox are 37-15 (+$1660) vs. righties with 6.1 runs per game, and they?ll probably be available at a very attractive price in each of these games. Lefthanders are another story (Chicago -$470 vs. southpaws on the road, NY 10-3, +530 at home) so if southpaws are paired against each other in this series go with the Bombers. BEST BET: White Sox when righty meets righty/ Yankees when lefty meets lefty.
Tampa Bay at L.A. Angels (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
The Angels have very quietly been making up lots of ground in the AL west (8-2, +$645 last 10 days) and their starting pitching looks as good as it has all year (4.07 team ERA, 2nd lowest in the league). But we?re still hesitant to use them in home games, given how poorly they?ve fared in LA this season (-$1160). The Devil Rays are a lousy road team (only 17-30, -$520), but they?ve been getting solid pitching in recent days (3.03 ERA last 10), and could be dangerous if posted as a high priced underdog. We?ll take a closer look when we get specific pitching matchups on game day. BEST BET: None.
Houston at Florida (4) 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th
The Astros have not played well and are fortunate that St. Louis has fallen on hard times, giving Houston a shot at another of their patented second half comebacks. Their offense is anemic (.255 team BA, lowest in the league), their starting pitching inconsistent, and their bullpen ERA is 5th highest in the NL (4.56). They?ve been lousy on the road (15-24, -$865) and will have their hands full with a Florida team that has played the best baseball in the NL over the past six weeks. The Marlins are profitable vs. righthanders (+$530) so we?ll use their top hurlers whenever they face off against one. BEST BET: Willis, Olsen & Jo. Johnson vs. righthanders.
Colorado at Cincinnati (4) 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th
After seeing the Rockies rated dead last in team ERA year after year, it is remarkable to see them with the third lowest ERA in the NL this season (4.27). They?ve fared well on the road this year (+$805) and will no doubt command some very favorable underdog prices here at Great American Ballpark. The Reds are having a better than expected season, but their pitching has faltered in recent days (7.30 ERA last 10) and they?ve lost quite a bit of money at home (-$800 overall). Jason Jennings (3.67 ERA) and Aaron Cook (3.72) have looked sharp, and Cincinnati only averages 4.6 runs per game against righthanders. BEST BET: Jennings/Cook.
L.A. Dodgers at St. Louis (4) 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th
The Dodgers have struggled on the road, but the acquisition of Mark Hendrickson gives LA a reliable southpaw (3.96 ERA in 15 starts) who can shut down a St. Louis team that has been a disaster against lefthanders, particularly here at Busch Stadium (6-11, -$1170). But they?ve dominated righthanders in this ballpark (20-6, +$925) so stick with staff ace Chris Carpenter (2.92 ERA in 17 starts) and Anthony Reyes (3.86 in six starts since joining the rotation). BEST BET: Hendrickson/Carpenter & Reyes vs. righthanders.
Kansas City at Detroit (4) 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th
The Royals went into the All-Star break following their best stretch of the season, winning 6 of 11 (+$525) with an average of 6.5 runs per game. But their pitching was as horrible as ever (5.80 overall ERA) and now they go up against a Detroit team that has swept all eight head to head meetings so far in 2006 (+$800). We expect more of the same when these teams square off at Comerica this weekend, and going against KC?s 7-26 record on the road vs. righthanders (-$950 with only 2.6 runs per game) is tempting. But prices could exceed 3 to 1 so it?s hard to jump in. BEST BET: None.
Oakland at Boston (4) 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th
The A?s are still on top in the AL West thanks to solid starting pitching (4.20 team ERA, 3rd best in the AL), but their anemic offense (.243 team BA with only 4.3 runs per game) is preventing them from opening up a lead in this weak division. The Red Sox have been dominant at Fenway, particularly vs. righties (20-5, +$1275 with 6.6 runs per game) and the addition of Jon Lester (+$445, 3.06 ERA in six starts) to the rotation will make it tough on the rest of the contenders for the AL East title (A?s averaging just 3.8 runs per game vs. southpaws). BEST BET: Lester/Red Sox vs. righthanders.
Texas at Baltimore (4) 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th
The Rangers have done very well against lefthanded pitching this year, including a 6-2 (+$530) record in road games, with 6.4 runs per game, but they?ve lost money against righthanders (-$625 overall). The Orioles are just the opposite, posting solid profits vs. righties (+$1230 with 5.3 runs per game) while getting shut down by southpaws (8-22, -$1560 with only 4.0 runs per game). We?ll play this series accordingly. BEST BET: Orioles when righty meets righty/Rangers when lefty meets lefty.
Cleveland at Minnesota (4) 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th
The Tribe took 4 out of 5 in head to head play earlier this year (+$305) but that was before the Twins caught fire. With Johan Santana in top form (+$745, 2.95 ERA in 19 starts) and Francisco Liriano posting wins in 9 of his 10 starts (+$825, 1.36 ERA), this team has a chance to make up ground in the AL Central and possibly climb back into the playoff mix. Minnesota is 30-10 (+$2080) at the Metrodome while the Indians are just 17-24 (-$935) as visitors this year. Prices may be high, but everything points towards a big weekend for the home team in this series. BEST BET: Santana/Liriano.
BEGINNING FRIDAY JULY 14
N.Y. Mets at Chicago Cubs (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
It?s been a rough year for the Cubs (34-54, -$1855) and it won?t get easier with the NL?s top team rolling into Wrigley following the All-Star break. The Mets still have the 2nd lowest team ERA in the league (4.03) despite a number of injuries to the starting rotation and their road numbers this year are very solid (+$715). It?s unclear how hard the Mets will push it now that they?ve opened up such a commanding lead in the NL East, with no real challenger on the horizon. But if the prices on these games stay in line, New York is certainly worth a shot. BEST BET: Mets at -150 or less.
Washington at Pittsburgh (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
The Pirates are just 6-24 (-$1825) vs. lefties, so we?ll take a shot with Michael O?Connor (3.23 ERA in six road games) under any circumstances. Another problem for the Bucs is their pitiful record in day games (6-24, -$1745), so go with Washington in Sunday?s finale. But Pittsburgh has posted a solid 14-6 in night games vs. righties at PNC Park (+$1045 with 5.8 runs per game), and the Nats are only 12-22 (-$540) in night games on the road. BEST BET: O?Connor/Pirates vs. righthanders in night games/Nationals in day games.
Milwaukee at Arizona (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
The Brewers are overachieving with a record around .500, considering they?ve got the highest team ERA in the NL (5.04) and their offense (.261 team BA with 4.5 runs per game) ranks near the bottom of the league as well. They?ve not been successful as a visitor in ?06 (15-26, -$850) so we?ll take a shot with a pair of Arizona hurlers who have had success this year (Webb 2.65 ERA in 19 starts, Batista +$840 in 18 starts), even though the Diamondbacks struggled in the weeks leading up to the All-Star break. BEST BET: Webb/Batista.
Atlanta at San Diego (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
The Padres have the lowest team ERA in the NL (3.91) and they?ve opened up a modest division lead, but they?ll need to improve their record at Petco Park, where they?ve lost more game than they?ve won (23-24, -$795). Veteran hurlers Woody Williams (+$510, 3.14 ERA in nine starts), Chan Ho Park (+$540 , 4.31 ERA in 16 starts) along with the impressive Chris Young (+$280, 3.12 in 18 starts) look like the three best candidates to post wins at home. Use any of them against the hapless Braves, who are going nowhere in 2006 (31-39, -$1560 vs. righties). BEST BET: Williams/Park/Young.
Philadelphia at San Francisco (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
The Giants were swept by a hot Phillies? team earlier in the year (0-3, -$300) but the visitor has fallen well off the pace since then, making them one of the biggest money-burners in the league this season (only 39-47, -$1470). The Giants are battling it out in that five team race in the NL West, but they?ve had trouble handling righthanded pitching thais year, so caution is advised. The best chance they have is if Philadelphia sends one of its lefthanders to the hill, given SF?s 8-2 (+$505) record vs. southpaws at ATT Park. Otherwise, we?ll stay away from this one. BEST BET: Giants vs. lefthanders.
Seattle at Toronto (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
The Blue Jays are having a terrific season, and are doing their best work here at Skydome vs. righthanders (23-11, +$1130), though it will be hard to get back into the playoff picture given the strong competition in the AL this year. The Mariners had been moving up in the standings very nicely, but they?ve struggled offensively in recent days (3-7, -$550 with 2.6 runs per game last 10) and their numbers vs. lefthanders remain as bad as ever (9-16, -$955 with only 3.6 runs per game). We?ll take a shot with Ted Lilly, who should see action this weekend, as long as a righthander is on the hill for the visitor. BEST BET: Lilly if opposed by a righthander.
Chicago W. Sox at N.Y. Yankees (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
This is a tough assignment for the Yankees, taking on the defending Champs after having lost a fortune in home games against righthanders (-$1050). The White Sox are 37-15 (+$1660) vs. righties with 6.1 runs per game, and they?ll probably be available at a very attractive price in each of these games. Lefthanders are another story (Chicago -$470 vs. southpaws on the road, NY 10-3, +530 at home) so if southpaws are paired against each other in this series go with the Bombers. BEST BET: White Sox when righty meets righty/ Yankees when lefty meets lefty.
Tampa Bay at L.A. Angels (3) 14th, 15th, 16th
The Angels have very quietly been making up lots of ground in the AL west (8-2, +$645 last 10 days) and their starting pitching looks as good as it has all year (4.07 team ERA, 2nd lowest in the league). But we?re still hesitant to use them in home games, given how poorly they?ve fared in LA this season (-$1160). The Devil Rays are a lousy road team (only 17-30, -$520), but they?ve been getting solid pitching in recent days (3.03 ERA last 10), and could be dangerous if posted as a high priced underdog. We?ll take a closer look when we get specific pitching matchups on game day. BEST BET: None.
