BEGINNING THURSDAY MAY 10
San Francisco at Colorado (4) 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th
The Giants are one of the eight teams in the NL with a winning record, and they are poised for a big weekend at Coors Field. Their starting pitchers have excelled, led by southpaw ace Barry Zito (3.52 ERA in six starts) and Noah Lowry (3.29 in six starts). Those two are both slated to see action in this series, bad news for a Colorado team that is only 1-7 (-$665) vs. southpaws. Jeff Francis is off to a disappointing start (-$210, 6.19 ERA) and the Giants are 7-4 (+$335) vs. lefties. Prices on the visitor should be very reasonable when these clubs meet. BEST BET: Zito/Lowry/Giants vs. Francis.
BEGINNING FRIDAY MAY 11
Florida at Washington (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Marlins have been slow to get on track this season, and their pitching has not been up to par (4.80 team ERA, 2nd worst in the NL). But they made money vs. the Nationals in 2006 (+$420) and are off to a 4-2 (+$90) start in head to head play this season. Florida swings the bats quite well (.276 team BA, 2nd highest in the NL) and they?ve posted solid numbers vs. righthanders this year (+$330 with 5.5 runs per game). They won?t have to cope with Jason Bergmann, Washington?s only capable righty, so chances are they?ll have a pleasant weekend. BEST BET: Marlins vs. righthanders.
Atlanta at Pittsburgh (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Braves seem to be tapering off a bit after their strong start, and their starting rotation appears to be a bit thin. But a trip to PNC Park could be the perfect way to get back on track. The Pirates have an anemic offense (.238 ERA), so it?s hard for them to come back when they?ve fallen behind. They?ve not fared well vs. righties in this ballpark (-$550 with only 2.6 runs per game), compared to Atlanta?s 12-3 (+$675) overall mark vs. righthanders. We?ll stay away from this series when the Bucs start one of their southpaws (Braves -$260 in that situation), but when the matchup permits we?ll jump in with a play on the visitor. BEST BET: Braves when righty meets righty.
Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
After a lackluster April, the Cubs have gotten hot (7-1, +$590 last 10 days). Their low team ERA (3.55) is a major improvement since last year, and they?ve been hitting the ball well in recent days (5.6 runs per game last 10). The Phillies have the highest team ERA in the league (4.82), with a number of rotation members who were expected to anchor the staff off to terrible starts. Two of the worst have been Adam Eaton (8.18 ERA and Freddy Garcia (6.06), at least one of whom should take a turn. The Cubs are 7-3 (+$425) on the road vs. righties. BEST BET: Cubs vs. Eaton & F. Garcia.
Milwaukee at N.Y. Mets (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
We predicted the Brewers would win the NL Central in our season preview, and they have not disappointed (21-10, +$1120 so far). They now face their biggest test of the 2007, traveling to Shea to take on a New York team that ranks #1 in both pitching (2.97 ERA) and hitting (.287). With all their success, the Mets are a disappointing 4-6 vs. righthanders at home. We?ll take the price with a pair of Milwaukee hurlers who are flashing excellent form right now, both of whom should be available. BEST BET: Sheets/Suppan.
Arizona at Houston (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Diamondbacks have had some ups and downs so far in 2007, but they?ve found a welcome addition to their rotation in Doug Davis (2.25 ERA in six starts). We?re not impressed with the Astros at this point, especially when they take on lefties (only 2-7, -$675 with 3.4 runs per game in that situation), so grab the Arizona southpaw when he takes his turn. BEST BET: D. Davis.
St. Louis at San Diego (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
After getting all the breaks in the 2006 post season, it appears that the Cardinals? luck as simply run out. They look awful at the moment (3-6, -$375 last 10 days with only 2.2 runs per game and a 7.58 ERA among starters). They?ve scored a pitifully low 90 runs in their first 29 games, so they?ll have their hands full with San Diego staff aces Jake Peavy (1.75 ERA in seven starts) and Chris Young (3.34), both of whom are slated to take the mound at Petco Park this weekend. BEST BET: Peavy/C. Young.
Cincinnati at L.A. Dodgers (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Reds have a lot of talent, with a quartet of young righthanders who can keep the team in contention all year. But they?ve not been playing well as of late (4-6, -$230 last 10 days), and they were winless (-$680) in six head to head meetings with the Dodgers in 2006. LA has a very good team with the second lowest team ERA in the NL (3.25) but they are losing money here at home, where they tend to be overpriced. We?re reluctant to go out on a limb with either of these squads at the present time. BEST BET: None.
Baltimore at Boston (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Orioles have had no success in dealing with the Red Sox over the past two seasons. They dropped a pair at Camden Yards in April (-$200) following a pathetic 3-15 (-$1220) showing in 2006. Boston does tend to command some very high prices here at Fenway Park, but they?ve not lost to a lefthander at home this year (+$300 with 7.3 runs per game), and they?ll get at least one chance to square off against one this weekend. BEST BET: Red Sox vs. lefthanders.
Tampa Bay at Toronto (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Devil Rays still can?t pitch (5.62 ERA, worst in the majors), but they?ve held their own money-wise so far this year (+$235 overall) and they are up against a last place Toronto team that is struggled badly right now (3-8, -$575 last 11 days with a 6.06 ERA among starters). There may be a number of spots in which we can use the visiting underdog, depending on the prices, but we know Scott Kazmir (+$220, 3.71 ERA) is slated to take a turn, so we?ll limit ourselves to a play on him for the time being. BEST BET: Kazmir.
L.A. Angels at Texas (4) 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th
The Rangers seemed to be slowly heading in the right direction the past couple of years under Buck Showalter. But they jettisoned him over the winter and now the wheels have come off (.241 team BA, 5.15 team ERA, 3rd worst in the league in both departments), and they find themselves fading fast in the competitive AL West. The Angels look very sharp (.268 team BA, 3.70 ERA) and after pounding this team in three straight at Anaheim earlier this year, they seem poised for a big weekend. Texas has lost money vs. righthanders (10-14, +$415) and they?ll get a steady diet of them when facing the all-righty LA rotation. BEST BET: Angels in all games.
Detroit at Minnesota (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The AL Central is shaping up to be the epic battle we predicted it would, and it will be interesting to see how well the red-hot Tigers (7-2, +$420 last 10 days) can stay here at the Metrodome. The Twins have not been as dominant at home as they?ve been in the past, and they?ve fared poorly vs. lefties so far in 2007 (only 5-7, -$465 with 3.7 runs per game). And based on the rotations, Minnesota will be up against a tough pair in this series. BEST BET: Robertson/Maroth.
Kansas City at Chicago W. Sox (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Royals were a dangerous team to bet against last year, because they were always going off at outrageously high prices. That has not been the case this year, and they remain winless at 0-7 against lefties (-$700). The White Sox haven?t been playing that well in recent days, but you can?t argue with the success Mark Buehrle has enjoyed (+$415, 3.22 ERA). He?s always been a good first half pitcher, so lay the fat price when he takes his turn. BEST BET: Buehrle.
Cleveland at Oakland (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Athletics are getting outstanding pitching again this season (3.17 team ERA, best in the AL), but the lack of offense is a cause for concern. They always pick up the pace after the All-Star break, so this series is a good opportunity for the Indians to build on their early success. The Tribe does not have the most impressive stats, but it?s difficult to argue with that 15-4 record vs. righthanders (+$1060 with 6.3 runs per game). Oakland has lost money here at McAfee (-$305) but we expect them to be favored most of the time. That means lots of very attractive prices we can take with the red hot visitor. BEST BET: Indians vs. righthanders.
N.Y. Yankees at Seattle (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Yankees got a needed boost over the weekend when it was announced that Roger Clemens would be donning the pinstripes in 2007. But the seven time Cy Young winner won?t be ready until the end of the month, so New York will need to cobble together a working rotation until he gets there. The Mariners dropped 2 of the first in the Bronx last week, but they?ve been playing well (6-4, +$290 last 10 days) and they?ve posted a winning mark against lefthanders in 2007 (+$305 with 6.3 runs per game). We?ll be able to grab a fat price on the home underdog when Andy Pettitte is on the hill for the visitor. BEST BET: Mariners vs. Pettitte.
San Francisco at Colorado (4) 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th
The Giants are one of the eight teams in the NL with a winning record, and they are poised for a big weekend at Coors Field. Their starting pitchers have excelled, led by southpaw ace Barry Zito (3.52 ERA in six starts) and Noah Lowry (3.29 in six starts). Those two are both slated to see action in this series, bad news for a Colorado team that is only 1-7 (-$665) vs. southpaws. Jeff Francis is off to a disappointing start (-$210, 6.19 ERA) and the Giants are 7-4 (+$335) vs. lefties. Prices on the visitor should be very reasonable when these clubs meet. BEST BET: Zito/Lowry/Giants vs. Francis.
BEGINNING FRIDAY MAY 11
Florida at Washington (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Marlins have been slow to get on track this season, and their pitching has not been up to par (4.80 team ERA, 2nd worst in the NL). But they made money vs. the Nationals in 2006 (+$420) and are off to a 4-2 (+$90) start in head to head play this season. Florida swings the bats quite well (.276 team BA, 2nd highest in the NL) and they?ve posted solid numbers vs. righthanders this year (+$330 with 5.5 runs per game). They won?t have to cope with Jason Bergmann, Washington?s only capable righty, so chances are they?ll have a pleasant weekend. BEST BET: Marlins vs. righthanders.
Atlanta at Pittsburgh (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Braves seem to be tapering off a bit after their strong start, and their starting rotation appears to be a bit thin. But a trip to PNC Park could be the perfect way to get back on track. The Pirates have an anemic offense (.238 ERA), so it?s hard for them to come back when they?ve fallen behind. They?ve not fared well vs. righties in this ballpark (-$550 with only 2.6 runs per game), compared to Atlanta?s 12-3 (+$675) overall mark vs. righthanders. We?ll stay away from this series when the Bucs start one of their southpaws (Braves -$260 in that situation), but when the matchup permits we?ll jump in with a play on the visitor. BEST BET: Braves when righty meets righty.
Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
After a lackluster April, the Cubs have gotten hot (7-1, +$590 last 10 days). Their low team ERA (3.55) is a major improvement since last year, and they?ve been hitting the ball well in recent days (5.6 runs per game last 10). The Phillies have the highest team ERA in the league (4.82), with a number of rotation members who were expected to anchor the staff off to terrible starts. Two of the worst have been Adam Eaton (8.18 ERA and Freddy Garcia (6.06), at least one of whom should take a turn. The Cubs are 7-3 (+$425) on the road vs. righties. BEST BET: Cubs vs. Eaton & F. Garcia.
Milwaukee at N.Y. Mets (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
We predicted the Brewers would win the NL Central in our season preview, and they have not disappointed (21-10, +$1120 so far). They now face their biggest test of the 2007, traveling to Shea to take on a New York team that ranks #1 in both pitching (2.97 ERA) and hitting (.287). With all their success, the Mets are a disappointing 4-6 vs. righthanders at home. We?ll take the price with a pair of Milwaukee hurlers who are flashing excellent form right now, both of whom should be available. BEST BET: Sheets/Suppan.
Arizona at Houston (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Diamondbacks have had some ups and downs so far in 2007, but they?ve found a welcome addition to their rotation in Doug Davis (2.25 ERA in six starts). We?re not impressed with the Astros at this point, especially when they take on lefties (only 2-7, -$675 with 3.4 runs per game in that situation), so grab the Arizona southpaw when he takes his turn. BEST BET: D. Davis.
St. Louis at San Diego (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
After getting all the breaks in the 2006 post season, it appears that the Cardinals? luck as simply run out. They look awful at the moment (3-6, -$375 last 10 days with only 2.2 runs per game and a 7.58 ERA among starters). They?ve scored a pitifully low 90 runs in their first 29 games, so they?ll have their hands full with San Diego staff aces Jake Peavy (1.75 ERA in seven starts) and Chris Young (3.34), both of whom are slated to take the mound at Petco Park this weekend. BEST BET: Peavy/C. Young.
Cincinnati at L.A. Dodgers (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Reds have a lot of talent, with a quartet of young righthanders who can keep the team in contention all year. But they?ve not been playing well as of late (4-6, -$230 last 10 days), and they were winless (-$680) in six head to head meetings with the Dodgers in 2006. LA has a very good team with the second lowest team ERA in the NL (3.25) but they are losing money here at home, where they tend to be overpriced. We?re reluctant to go out on a limb with either of these squads at the present time. BEST BET: None.
Baltimore at Boston (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Orioles have had no success in dealing with the Red Sox over the past two seasons. They dropped a pair at Camden Yards in April (-$200) following a pathetic 3-15 (-$1220) showing in 2006. Boston does tend to command some very high prices here at Fenway Park, but they?ve not lost to a lefthander at home this year (+$300 with 7.3 runs per game), and they?ll get at least one chance to square off against one this weekend. BEST BET: Red Sox vs. lefthanders.
Tampa Bay at Toronto (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Devil Rays still can?t pitch (5.62 ERA, worst in the majors), but they?ve held their own money-wise so far this year (+$235 overall) and they are up against a last place Toronto team that is struggled badly right now (3-8, -$575 last 11 days with a 6.06 ERA among starters). There may be a number of spots in which we can use the visiting underdog, depending on the prices, but we know Scott Kazmir (+$220, 3.71 ERA) is slated to take a turn, so we?ll limit ourselves to a play on him for the time being. BEST BET: Kazmir.
L.A. Angels at Texas (4) 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th
The Rangers seemed to be slowly heading in the right direction the past couple of years under Buck Showalter. But they jettisoned him over the winter and now the wheels have come off (.241 team BA, 5.15 team ERA, 3rd worst in the league in both departments), and they find themselves fading fast in the competitive AL West. The Angels look very sharp (.268 team BA, 3.70 ERA) and after pounding this team in three straight at Anaheim earlier this year, they seem poised for a big weekend. Texas has lost money vs. righthanders (10-14, +$415) and they?ll get a steady diet of them when facing the all-righty LA rotation. BEST BET: Angels in all games.
Detroit at Minnesota (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The AL Central is shaping up to be the epic battle we predicted it would, and it will be interesting to see how well the red-hot Tigers (7-2, +$420 last 10 days) can stay here at the Metrodome. The Twins have not been as dominant at home as they?ve been in the past, and they?ve fared poorly vs. lefties so far in 2007 (only 5-7, -$465 with 3.7 runs per game). And based on the rotations, Minnesota will be up against a tough pair in this series. BEST BET: Robertson/Maroth.
Kansas City at Chicago W. Sox (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Royals were a dangerous team to bet against last year, because they were always going off at outrageously high prices. That has not been the case this year, and they remain winless at 0-7 against lefties (-$700). The White Sox haven?t been playing that well in recent days, but you can?t argue with the success Mark Buehrle has enjoyed (+$415, 3.22 ERA). He?s always been a good first half pitcher, so lay the fat price when he takes his turn. BEST BET: Buehrle.
Cleveland at Oakland (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Athletics are getting outstanding pitching again this season (3.17 team ERA, best in the AL), but the lack of offense is a cause for concern. They always pick up the pace after the All-Star break, so this series is a good opportunity for the Indians to build on their early success. The Tribe does not have the most impressive stats, but it?s difficult to argue with that 15-4 record vs. righthanders (+$1060 with 6.3 runs per game). Oakland has lost money here at McAfee (-$305) but we expect them to be favored most of the time. That means lots of very attractive prices we can take with the red hot visitor. BEST BET: Indians vs. righthanders.
N.Y. Yankees at Seattle (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Yankees got a needed boost over the weekend when it was announced that Roger Clemens would be donning the pinstripes in 2007. But the seven time Cy Young winner won?t be ready until the end of the month, so New York will need to cobble together a working rotation until he gets there. The Mariners dropped 2 of the first in the Bronx last week, but they?ve been playing well (6-4, +$290 last 10 days) and they?ve posted a winning mark against lefthanders in 2007 (+$305 with 6.3 runs per game). We?ll be able to grab a fat price on the home underdog when Andy Pettitte is on the hill for the visitor. BEST BET: Mariners vs. Pettitte.
