BEGINNING THURSDAY JULY 5
N.Y. Mets at Houston (4) 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th
The Mets are surging as they head into the All-Star Break (8-2, +$530 last 10 days), solidifying their position as the best balanced club in the NL (.269 team BA, 3rd best in the league . . . 3.65 ERA, 2nd best). They?ve got an opportunity for a big weekend vs. an Astros team that continues to flounder (35-47, -$1630 overall). The visitor is 18-8 (+$1045) in road night games this year and all five of their starters are looking very sharp right now. They appear to be a safe bet to take at least 3 out of 4 contests at MinuteMaid Park this weekend. BEST BET: Mets in night games.
Seattle at Oakland (4) 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th
The Mariners are the hottest team in the AL right now (9-1, +$930 last 10 days) and they?ve already taken 4 out of the first 5 head to head matchups with Oakland (+$355). But the Athletics have been a remarkable second half team over the past several seasons, and they are blessed with a remarkable pitching staff (3.53 overall ERA). They used Rich Harden in relief at Yankee Stadium, and if he can fill the void in the bullpen caused by Huston Street?s absence, this could be a good weekend for the home team. We?ll steer clear for now and re-assess this matchup on game day. BEST BET: None.
BEGINNING FRIDAY JULY 6
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Cubs had a decent month of June (8-2, +$585 last 10 days with a .270 team BA, tops in the NL), closing just shy of .500 and with a reasonable chance of challenging Milwaukee in the second half. The pitching is solid, and they?ve fared well on the road this year, particularly against righthanders (+$465). The Pirates aren?t hitting (only 3.7 runs per game last 10 days) and their numbers vs. righthanders here at PNC Park are certainly not encouraging (9-14, -$775). BEST BET: Cubs when righty meets righty.
Milwaukee at Washington (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Brewers bounced back from a tough stretch in May to take command of the NL Central, and head towards the All-Star Break with the best record in the league (47-34, +$960). They swept the Nationals when the teams squared off at Miller Park (+$300) and their rotation should fare well vs. a Washington team that is only 9-17 (-$385) vs. righties at RFK, with just 3.1 runs per game in those contests. Our top choice is Claudio Vargas, who has led Milwaukee to victories in 12 of this 14 starts (+$1045). BEST BET: C. Vargas.
Arizona at Cincinnati (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The collapse of the Reds is not what we expected, but their starting rotation has performed poorly (4.80 team ERA, 4th worst in the league) so it?s hard to discern much value in this team as the season moves along. They are only 8-19 in night games at Great American Ballpark (+$1690), while the pitching rich Diamondbacks (3.83 team ERA) have amassed a respectable 15-9 record in night games away from Chase Field (+$775). They?ll need to win series like this against the weaker team in the NL just to keep pace in the competitive NL West. BEST BET: Diamondbacks when righty meets righty.
San Francisco at St. Louis (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Cardinals are desperate to shore up their miserable pitching situation (4.88 team ERA, 2nd worst in the NL), so the acquisition of Mike Maroth can?t hurt. But they?ve already lost twice to the Giants in their only two meetings (-$215) and their numbers here at Busch Stadium are atrocious, particularly against lefties (2-8, -$945 with only 2.6 runs per game). The Giants are not a wonderful proposition as a visitor, but with Zito & Lowry slated to start, we?ll take a shot if the price is right. BEST BET: Zito & Lowry as underdogs.
Philadelphia at Colorado (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
Both these teams were moving up in their respective divisions, but both have stumbled in recent days. The Phillies were clobbered by the Mets at Citizen?s Bank last weekend (6.12 ERA among starters last 10 days), while the Rockies suffered an eight game slide right after sweeping the Yankees here at Coors Field. Both clubs lose money vs. lefthanders (Rockies 7-14, -$765, Phillies 10-18, -$850) but have turned a profit vs. righties (Rockies +$965, Phillies +$670) so we?ll play these games accordingly and see if either can bounce back from recent woes. BEST BET: Lefthanders vs. righthanders.
Atlanta at San Diego (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
As much as we love the San Diego rotation, it?s important to note that this team is only breaking even money-wise at Petco Park, while the Braves have been a solid choice vs. righties outside of Turner Field (14-9, +$445 with 6.2 runs per game). Their pitching has been good in recent days (2.58 ERA among starters last 10), and staff veteran John Smoltz is having a terrific season so far (2.98 ERA in 16 starts so far). San Diego averages just 3.8 runs per game vs. righties at home (-$360). BEST BET: Smoltz if opposed by a righthander.
Florida at L.A. Dodgers (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Marlins are in dire straits as the All-Star Break approaches (only 3-6, -$435 last 10 days), and the return of 2006 standout Josh Johnson has thus far been a bust. More problematic this weekend is the sub-par performances by Scott Olsen (4.94 ERA) and Dontrelle Willis (4.65), both of whom are expected to see action this weekend. The Dodgers are very tough on lefthanders (15-6, +$785 with 5.3 runs per game), so we?ll lay the price on the home team, whatever it may be. BEST BET: Dodgers vs. Olsen & Willis.
Boston at Detroit (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
This could be a tough assignment for the Tigers in several respects. The Red Sox have dominated righthanders on the road this year (21-9, +$1365) while Detroit has lost vs. righties at home (-$885). The Tigers are in better shape if happen to get a lefty vs. lefty hook-up (Detroit +$930 vs. southpaws overall, Boston 4-8, -$665 vs. lefties on the road), but with Kason Gabbard the only Red Sox hurler who fits the bill, they may never get that opportunity. BEST BET: Red Sox when righty meets righty/Tigers when lefty vs. lefty.
L.A. Angels at N.Y. Yankees (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Angels breezed through the Bronx and swept a series in May (+$425), and the way the Bombers are reeling lately (2-7, -$910 last 10 days with only 2.9 runs per game), it could happen again. LA?s pitching has been outstanding (3.78 team ERA) and their numbers vs. righties are equally impressive (38-22, +$965 with 5.3 runs per game). The Yankees are buried in the AL East, their Wildcard hopes are fading with each passing day, and they?ll have a tough time coping with this rotation. BEST BET: Angels vs. righthanders.
Cleveland at Toronto (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Blue Jays were swept by a hot Cleveland team when these clubs hooked up earlier in the year (-$300) but Cleveland is not particularly imposing outside of Jacobs Field, particularly vs. righties (-$380) and that?s what they?ll be up against at Rogers Centre. Toronto has terrific numbers vs. southpaws at home (11-3, +$775) and they?ll probably catch some decent prices when facing this visitor. BEST BET: Blue Jays vs. lefthanders.
Tampa Bay at Kansas City (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Devil Rays are back in the AL East basement, but they?ve split the first four games with the Royals in 2007, and they might be able to grab a road victory when Scott Kazmir takes his turn (+$290, 4.26 in 17 starts so far). The Royals have been picking up some nice wins at fat underdog prices (+$525 last 10 days), but they are only 6-16 vs. southpaws (-$-$705) and could have a difficult time coping with Tampa Bay?s ace lefthander. BEST BET: Kazmir.
Minnesota at Chicago W. Sox (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Twins have drawn a bit closer in the AL Central thanks to a recent surge (6-4, +$215 with 6.0 runs per game), including a winning weekend vs. top division rival Detroit. The light hitting White Sox (.236 team BA) are mired way back in the pack and are actually at risk of falling behind the lowly Royals. The Twins have already taken 5 of 8 in head to head play (+$150) and given their excellent road numbers (+$520) they have an very good shot at taking at least 2 out of 3 here at US Cellular. BEST BET: Twins in all games.
Baltimore at Texas (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Rangers are enjoying their best stretch of the season (7-3, +$915 last 10 days), that has included taking 2 out of 3 at Fenway from the heavily favored Bosox. But their pitching (5.29 team ERA) is much worse than the Baltimore?s, and the Orioles have also enjoyed a measure of success in recent days (5-4, +$260 last 10). Jeremy Guthrie has been outstanding in his 12 starts this year (2.00 ERA) and should be available at a reasonable price when he takes the mound this weekend. BEST BET: Guthrie.
N.Y. Mets at Houston (4) 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th
The Mets are surging as they head into the All-Star Break (8-2, +$530 last 10 days), solidifying their position as the best balanced club in the NL (.269 team BA, 3rd best in the league . . . 3.65 ERA, 2nd best). They?ve got an opportunity for a big weekend vs. an Astros team that continues to flounder (35-47, -$1630 overall). The visitor is 18-8 (+$1045) in road night games this year and all five of their starters are looking very sharp right now. They appear to be a safe bet to take at least 3 out of 4 contests at MinuteMaid Park this weekend. BEST BET: Mets in night games.
Seattle at Oakland (4) 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th
The Mariners are the hottest team in the AL right now (9-1, +$930 last 10 days) and they?ve already taken 4 out of the first 5 head to head matchups with Oakland (+$355). But the Athletics have been a remarkable second half team over the past several seasons, and they are blessed with a remarkable pitching staff (3.53 overall ERA). They used Rich Harden in relief at Yankee Stadium, and if he can fill the void in the bullpen caused by Huston Street?s absence, this could be a good weekend for the home team. We?ll steer clear for now and re-assess this matchup on game day. BEST BET: None.
BEGINNING FRIDAY JULY 6
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Cubs had a decent month of June (8-2, +$585 last 10 days with a .270 team BA, tops in the NL), closing just shy of .500 and with a reasonable chance of challenging Milwaukee in the second half. The pitching is solid, and they?ve fared well on the road this year, particularly against righthanders (+$465). The Pirates aren?t hitting (only 3.7 runs per game last 10 days) and their numbers vs. righthanders here at PNC Park are certainly not encouraging (9-14, -$775). BEST BET: Cubs when righty meets righty.
Milwaukee at Washington (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Brewers bounced back from a tough stretch in May to take command of the NL Central, and head towards the All-Star Break with the best record in the league (47-34, +$960). They swept the Nationals when the teams squared off at Miller Park (+$300) and their rotation should fare well vs. a Washington team that is only 9-17 (-$385) vs. righties at RFK, with just 3.1 runs per game in those contests. Our top choice is Claudio Vargas, who has led Milwaukee to victories in 12 of this 14 starts (+$1045). BEST BET: C. Vargas.
Arizona at Cincinnati (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The collapse of the Reds is not what we expected, but their starting rotation has performed poorly (4.80 team ERA, 4th worst in the league) so it?s hard to discern much value in this team as the season moves along. They are only 8-19 in night games at Great American Ballpark (+$1690), while the pitching rich Diamondbacks (3.83 team ERA) have amassed a respectable 15-9 record in night games away from Chase Field (+$775). They?ll need to win series like this against the weaker team in the NL just to keep pace in the competitive NL West. BEST BET: Diamondbacks when righty meets righty.
San Francisco at St. Louis (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Cardinals are desperate to shore up their miserable pitching situation (4.88 team ERA, 2nd worst in the NL), so the acquisition of Mike Maroth can?t hurt. But they?ve already lost twice to the Giants in their only two meetings (-$215) and their numbers here at Busch Stadium are atrocious, particularly against lefties (2-8, -$945 with only 2.6 runs per game). The Giants are not a wonderful proposition as a visitor, but with Zito & Lowry slated to start, we?ll take a shot if the price is right. BEST BET: Zito & Lowry as underdogs.
Philadelphia at Colorado (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
Both these teams were moving up in their respective divisions, but both have stumbled in recent days. The Phillies were clobbered by the Mets at Citizen?s Bank last weekend (6.12 ERA among starters last 10 days), while the Rockies suffered an eight game slide right after sweeping the Yankees here at Coors Field. Both clubs lose money vs. lefthanders (Rockies 7-14, -$765, Phillies 10-18, -$850) but have turned a profit vs. righties (Rockies +$965, Phillies +$670) so we?ll play these games accordingly and see if either can bounce back from recent woes. BEST BET: Lefthanders vs. righthanders.
Atlanta at San Diego (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
As much as we love the San Diego rotation, it?s important to note that this team is only breaking even money-wise at Petco Park, while the Braves have been a solid choice vs. righties outside of Turner Field (14-9, +$445 with 6.2 runs per game). Their pitching has been good in recent days (2.58 ERA among starters last 10), and staff veteran John Smoltz is having a terrific season so far (2.98 ERA in 16 starts so far). San Diego averages just 3.8 runs per game vs. righties at home (-$360). BEST BET: Smoltz if opposed by a righthander.
Florida at L.A. Dodgers (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Marlins are in dire straits as the All-Star Break approaches (only 3-6, -$435 last 10 days), and the return of 2006 standout Josh Johnson has thus far been a bust. More problematic this weekend is the sub-par performances by Scott Olsen (4.94 ERA) and Dontrelle Willis (4.65), both of whom are expected to see action this weekend. The Dodgers are very tough on lefthanders (15-6, +$785 with 5.3 runs per game), so we?ll lay the price on the home team, whatever it may be. BEST BET: Dodgers vs. Olsen & Willis.
Boston at Detroit (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
This could be a tough assignment for the Tigers in several respects. The Red Sox have dominated righthanders on the road this year (21-9, +$1365) while Detroit has lost vs. righties at home (-$885). The Tigers are in better shape if happen to get a lefty vs. lefty hook-up (Detroit +$930 vs. southpaws overall, Boston 4-8, -$665 vs. lefties on the road), but with Kason Gabbard the only Red Sox hurler who fits the bill, they may never get that opportunity. BEST BET: Red Sox when righty meets righty/Tigers when lefty vs. lefty.
L.A. Angels at N.Y. Yankees (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Angels breezed through the Bronx and swept a series in May (+$425), and the way the Bombers are reeling lately (2-7, -$910 last 10 days with only 2.9 runs per game), it could happen again. LA?s pitching has been outstanding (3.78 team ERA) and their numbers vs. righties are equally impressive (38-22, +$965 with 5.3 runs per game). The Yankees are buried in the AL East, their Wildcard hopes are fading with each passing day, and they?ll have a tough time coping with this rotation. BEST BET: Angels vs. righthanders.
Cleveland at Toronto (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Blue Jays were swept by a hot Cleveland team when these clubs hooked up earlier in the year (-$300) but Cleveland is not particularly imposing outside of Jacobs Field, particularly vs. righties (-$380) and that?s what they?ll be up against at Rogers Centre. Toronto has terrific numbers vs. southpaws at home (11-3, +$775) and they?ll probably catch some decent prices when facing this visitor. BEST BET: Blue Jays vs. lefthanders.
Tampa Bay at Kansas City (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Devil Rays are back in the AL East basement, but they?ve split the first four games with the Royals in 2007, and they might be able to grab a road victory when Scott Kazmir takes his turn (+$290, 4.26 in 17 starts so far). The Royals have been picking up some nice wins at fat underdog prices (+$525 last 10 days), but they are only 6-16 vs. southpaws (-$-$705) and could have a difficult time coping with Tampa Bay?s ace lefthander. BEST BET: Kazmir.
Minnesota at Chicago W. Sox (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Twins have drawn a bit closer in the AL Central thanks to a recent surge (6-4, +$215 with 6.0 runs per game), including a winning weekend vs. top division rival Detroit. The light hitting White Sox (.236 team BA) are mired way back in the pack and are actually at risk of falling behind the lowly Royals. The Twins have already taken 5 of 8 in head to head play (+$150) and given their excellent road numbers (+$520) they have an very good shot at taking at least 2 out of 3 here at US Cellular. BEST BET: Twins in all games.
Baltimore at Texas (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Rangers are enjoying their best stretch of the season (7-3, +$915 last 10 days), that has included taking 2 out of 3 at Fenway from the heavily favored Bosox. But their pitching (5.29 team ERA) is much worse than the Baltimore?s, and the Orioles have also enjoyed a measure of success in recent days (5-4, +$260 last 10). Jeremy Guthrie has been outstanding in his 12 starts this year (2.00 ERA) and should be available at a reasonable price when he takes the mound this weekend. BEST BET: Guthrie.
