BASEBALL
BEGINNING THURSDAY JULY 12
Cincinnati at N.Y. Mets (4) 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th
The beleaguered Reds do seem to have made some headway following their recent managerial shakeup (6-4, +$180 last 10 days with 5.6 runs per game), but they are still the worst team in the league and their money losses (-$1790 overall) don?t give us much confidence as they head into Shea Stadium. The Mets start the 2nd half protecting a slim lead in the NL East, but their starting pitching looks shaky (6.71 ERA among starters last 10 days) and they?ve lost a tidy sum vs. righties in this ballpark (-$660). Can?t see laying fat prices vs. the all-righty Cincinnati rotation. BEST BET: None.
Toronto at Boston (4) 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th
The Blue Jays don?t have much to recommend them as they head into Fenway Park this weekend. They?ve not fared well outside of Rogers Centre (only 17-25, -$610 as a visitor) and it?s unlikely they?ll see any lefthanders on the mound for Boston (Toronto -$1205 vs. righties so far). But the Red Sox are going to see a steady diet of righthanders on the mound for the visitor as well, and with a 6-10 mark in that situation in home night games (-$1105 with only 3.6 runs per game) caution is advised. Their best shot is on Sunday, given their 13-1 (+$1135 with 7.5 runs per game) record in that situation. Otherwise steer clear. BEST BET: Red Sox in day games.
Chicago W. Sox at Baltimore (4) 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th
Both these teams are in the midst of disappointing seasons, especially the White Sox, who were expected to compete in the AL Central but find themselves in jeopardy of falling into last place due to an appalling lack of offense (.240 team BA. lowest in the majors). We?re not anxious to back the Orioles here at Camden Yards where they?ve lost money in 2007, but we?ll make an exception when Eric Bedard takes the mound in his first 2nd half start. The young lefty is coming off a 15 strikeout gem vs. Texas, and has lowered his ERA to 3.40 in 19 starts. Chicago is only 9-16 (-$915) vs. lefthanders this season. BEST BET: Bedard.
N.Y. Yankees at Tampa Bay (4) 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th
The Yankees hope to climb back into the post-season chase by beating up on weaker teams like these Devil Rays. They?ll need to do better than the 1-3 mark they?ve posted in head to head play so far in ?07 (-$490), but they are catching Tampa Bay in the midst of a major slide (only 1-10, -$960 last 11). NY has turned a profit on the road vs. righties in night games (14-9, +$275 with 5.8 runs per game) and the Devil Rays are big losers here at Tropicana Field (19-24, -$625). BEST BET: Yankees vs. righthanders in night games.
Oakland at Minnesota (4) 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th
The A?s have had some recent success against the Twins, knocking them out of the playoffs last year and taking 2 out of 3 in an earlier 2007 series (+$105). They?ve still got the best pitching in the league (3.65 team ERA) and they?ve been a modest breadwinner on the road (+$285) while Minnesota has been particularly ineffective in night games at the Metrodome (-$965). The A?s are likely to catch a fat price vs. Johan Santana, who has lost money in 2007 (-$330). Oakland is 16-12 (+$270) with 5.2 runs per game vs. lefties so far. BEST BET: Athletics vs. J. Santana/Athletics in night games.
Detroit at Seattle (4) 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th
This Mariners team has been on fire over the past month (7-3, +$585 last 10 days), and comes into the 2nd half as the single most profitable team in MLB (+$1820). The Tigers are in a tough battle for the top slot in the AL Central, so this shapes up as an exciting and perhaps pivotal series. It?s hard to go against a Detroit team that has had so much success on the road (27-15, +$1310), but Seattle has been very hard to beat here at Safeco, so we?ll stay on the sidelines for now and check back on game day. BEST BET: None.
BEGINNING FRIDAY JULY 13
Houston at Chicago Cubs (3) 13th, 14th, 15th
The Cubs have been one of baseball?s hottest clubs over the past month or so (6-4, +$55 last 10 days) and have emerged as a major challenger to the Brewers in the NL Central. Their pitching staff looks like one of the league?s best right now (3.92 team ERA) and the preponderance of lefthanders in the starting pitching should help against a lackluster Houston team that averages just 4.0 runs per game vs. southpaws (-$365). But despite all of Chicago?s recent success, we?re still troubled by that ugly 20-21 mark here at Wrigley Field (-$1060). We?ll steer clear for the time being. BEST BET: None.
Washington at Florida (3) 13th, 14th, 15th
The Nationals are a team to keep an eye on, having turned a nice profit in the first half of the season, particularly in their road games (+$630), despite some of the weakest stats in the league. They?ve already gone 5-4 vs. the Marlins (+$435), and Florida is a disappointing 12-21 (-$1105) in night games here at Dolphin Stadium. We consider using Washington throughout this series, but for now we?ll only commit to a pay on Jason Bergmann, who has picked up where he left off since returning from the DL (3.47 ERA in 11 starts) and offers an outstanding underdog value. BEST BET: Bergmann.
St. Louis at Philadelphia (3) 13th, 14th, 15th
These teams are almost mirror images of one another statistically (Phillies 4.96 team ERA, .267 team BA . . . Cardinals 4.78 ERA, .265 team BA), and both are struggling to stay relevant as the 2nd half gets underway. Both teams have all kinds of trouble when taking on lefthanders (Phillies 10-19, -$950, Cardinals 12-16, -$535) but Philadelphia has put up some decent overall numbers against righties (+$575 with 5.5 runs per game), so we?re inclined to avoid the visitor. We?ll stick with a pair of Philly southpaws who should shut down the St. Louis attack. BEST BET: Hamels/Moyer.
Pittsburgh at Atlanta (3) 13th, 14th, 15th
The Pirates put together a solid string of games leading up to the All-Star break (7-4, +$370 last 11 days with 4.9 runs per game) but this looks like a tough spot. The Braves have been steadily closing ground with the Mets in the NL East, and are hitting the ball extremely well right now (6.1 runs per game last 10). We will avoid them when taking on those Pittsburgh lefthanders, but they?ve been an excellent value vs. righthanders this year (+$635) and other than Ian Snell (+$575, 2.93 ERA in 17 starts), none of the righties in the Pirates? rotation give us very much cause for concern. BEST BET: Braves vs. all righthanders except Snell.
Colorado at Milwaukee (3) 13th, 14th, 15th
The Rockies have knocked off some quality teams in 2007, and their numbers vs. righthanded pitchers are outstanding (+$1060 with 5.1 runs per game). But Miller Park has been a very unwelcoming venue for visiting teams so far in 2007 (Brewers 30-13, +$1130 at home) and Milwaukee shows no signs of surrendering their hold on first place in the NL Central without a fight. Chris Capuano has faded somewhat after a strong start, but his numbers at home are still solid (3.52 ERA) and the Rockies have been vulnerable to lefthanders (10-14, -$440 with 4.2 runs per game). BEST BET: Capuano.
San Diego at Arizona (3) 13th, 14th, 15th
They?ll be plenty of exciting intra-division series in the NL West as the 2nd half gets underway and this series looks like a prime example. Arizona as had success here at Chase Field, but the Padres are a terrific road team (+$575) and they have a team ERA (3.07) that is nearly a full run lower than Arizona?s (4.00). The D?Backs? rotation has struggled in recent days (6.15 ERA last 11), and even Cy Young winner Brandon Webb is struggling (6.23 last two starts). San Diego is just a better team. BEST BET: Padres in all games.
L.A. Dodgers at San Francisco (3) 13th, 14th, 15th
The Dodgers lost some ground going into the All-Star Break, dropping consecutive series at home to the Padres, Braves and Marlins, but they get a chance to regain lost ground against a weak division rival (SF only 38-48, -$1075 so far in 2007). LA has outstanding statistics (3.84 team ERA, 2nd best in the NL, .269 team BA, 3rd best) and they check in here with a 16-8 (+$650) mark against lefthanders. They look like an excellent value against Noah Lowry and Barry Zito, at least one of whom should see action at ATT Park this weekend. BEST BET: Dodgers vs. Zito & Lowry.
Kansas City at Cleveland (3) 13th, 14th, 15th
The Royals had a very nice month of June, and it?s hard to go against a team that keeps turning a profit vs. righthanders in road games (+$1170 so far). But the Indians continue to pound the baseball (4.9 runs per game last 11 games) and they?ve been dominant here at Jacobs Field (31-12, +$1305). Their best bet is with their lefthanders, given KC?s lackluster performance against southpaws to date (only 8-17, -$570 so far). We?ll play this series accordingly. BEST BET: Lefthanders vs. the Royals.
Texas at L.A. Angels (3) 13th, 14th, 15th
The Angels have taken 7 out of 10 from the sad-sack Rangers (+$295) and the way they?ve played in this ballpark, particularly against righthanders (21-8, +$670, with 6.2 runs per game) things are not likely to change. Texas is a terrible team (5.12 team ERA, .257 team BA, near the bottom of the AL in both departments) and none of the 10 starters they?ve used this year has an ERA lower than 5.36. Prices may be high, but the visitor will be hard pressed to salvage a single victory. BEST BET: Angels in all games.
BEGINNING THURSDAY JULY 12
Cincinnati at N.Y. Mets (4) 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th
The beleaguered Reds do seem to have made some headway following their recent managerial shakeup (6-4, +$180 last 10 days with 5.6 runs per game), but they are still the worst team in the league and their money losses (-$1790 overall) don?t give us much confidence as they head into Shea Stadium. The Mets start the 2nd half protecting a slim lead in the NL East, but their starting pitching looks shaky (6.71 ERA among starters last 10 days) and they?ve lost a tidy sum vs. righties in this ballpark (-$660). Can?t see laying fat prices vs. the all-righty Cincinnati rotation. BEST BET: None.
Toronto at Boston (4) 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th
The Blue Jays don?t have much to recommend them as they head into Fenway Park this weekend. They?ve not fared well outside of Rogers Centre (only 17-25, -$610 as a visitor) and it?s unlikely they?ll see any lefthanders on the mound for Boston (Toronto -$1205 vs. righties so far). But the Red Sox are going to see a steady diet of righthanders on the mound for the visitor as well, and with a 6-10 mark in that situation in home night games (-$1105 with only 3.6 runs per game) caution is advised. Their best shot is on Sunday, given their 13-1 (+$1135 with 7.5 runs per game) record in that situation. Otherwise steer clear. BEST BET: Red Sox in day games.
Chicago W. Sox at Baltimore (4) 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th
Both these teams are in the midst of disappointing seasons, especially the White Sox, who were expected to compete in the AL Central but find themselves in jeopardy of falling into last place due to an appalling lack of offense (.240 team BA. lowest in the majors). We?re not anxious to back the Orioles here at Camden Yards where they?ve lost money in 2007, but we?ll make an exception when Eric Bedard takes the mound in his first 2nd half start. The young lefty is coming off a 15 strikeout gem vs. Texas, and has lowered his ERA to 3.40 in 19 starts. Chicago is only 9-16 (-$915) vs. lefthanders this season. BEST BET: Bedard.
N.Y. Yankees at Tampa Bay (4) 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th
The Yankees hope to climb back into the post-season chase by beating up on weaker teams like these Devil Rays. They?ll need to do better than the 1-3 mark they?ve posted in head to head play so far in ?07 (-$490), but they are catching Tampa Bay in the midst of a major slide (only 1-10, -$960 last 11). NY has turned a profit on the road vs. righties in night games (14-9, +$275 with 5.8 runs per game) and the Devil Rays are big losers here at Tropicana Field (19-24, -$625). BEST BET: Yankees vs. righthanders in night games.
Oakland at Minnesota (4) 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th
The A?s have had some recent success against the Twins, knocking them out of the playoffs last year and taking 2 out of 3 in an earlier 2007 series (+$105). They?ve still got the best pitching in the league (3.65 team ERA) and they?ve been a modest breadwinner on the road (+$285) while Minnesota has been particularly ineffective in night games at the Metrodome (-$965). The A?s are likely to catch a fat price vs. Johan Santana, who has lost money in 2007 (-$330). Oakland is 16-12 (+$270) with 5.2 runs per game vs. lefties so far. BEST BET: Athletics vs. J. Santana/Athletics in night games.
Detroit at Seattle (4) 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th
This Mariners team has been on fire over the past month (7-3, +$585 last 10 days), and comes into the 2nd half as the single most profitable team in MLB (+$1820). The Tigers are in a tough battle for the top slot in the AL Central, so this shapes up as an exciting and perhaps pivotal series. It?s hard to go against a Detroit team that has had so much success on the road (27-15, +$1310), but Seattle has been very hard to beat here at Safeco, so we?ll stay on the sidelines for now and check back on game day. BEST BET: None.
BEGINNING FRIDAY JULY 13
Houston at Chicago Cubs (3) 13th, 14th, 15th
The Cubs have been one of baseball?s hottest clubs over the past month or so (6-4, +$55 last 10 days) and have emerged as a major challenger to the Brewers in the NL Central. Their pitching staff looks like one of the league?s best right now (3.92 team ERA) and the preponderance of lefthanders in the starting pitching should help against a lackluster Houston team that averages just 4.0 runs per game vs. southpaws (-$365). But despite all of Chicago?s recent success, we?re still troubled by that ugly 20-21 mark here at Wrigley Field (-$1060). We?ll steer clear for the time being. BEST BET: None.
Washington at Florida (3) 13th, 14th, 15th
The Nationals are a team to keep an eye on, having turned a nice profit in the first half of the season, particularly in their road games (+$630), despite some of the weakest stats in the league. They?ve already gone 5-4 vs. the Marlins (+$435), and Florida is a disappointing 12-21 (-$1105) in night games here at Dolphin Stadium. We consider using Washington throughout this series, but for now we?ll only commit to a pay on Jason Bergmann, who has picked up where he left off since returning from the DL (3.47 ERA in 11 starts) and offers an outstanding underdog value. BEST BET: Bergmann.
St. Louis at Philadelphia (3) 13th, 14th, 15th
These teams are almost mirror images of one another statistically (Phillies 4.96 team ERA, .267 team BA . . . Cardinals 4.78 ERA, .265 team BA), and both are struggling to stay relevant as the 2nd half gets underway. Both teams have all kinds of trouble when taking on lefthanders (Phillies 10-19, -$950, Cardinals 12-16, -$535) but Philadelphia has put up some decent overall numbers against righties (+$575 with 5.5 runs per game), so we?re inclined to avoid the visitor. We?ll stick with a pair of Philly southpaws who should shut down the St. Louis attack. BEST BET: Hamels/Moyer.
Pittsburgh at Atlanta (3) 13th, 14th, 15th
The Pirates put together a solid string of games leading up to the All-Star break (7-4, +$370 last 11 days with 4.9 runs per game) but this looks like a tough spot. The Braves have been steadily closing ground with the Mets in the NL East, and are hitting the ball extremely well right now (6.1 runs per game last 10). We will avoid them when taking on those Pittsburgh lefthanders, but they?ve been an excellent value vs. righthanders this year (+$635) and other than Ian Snell (+$575, 2.93 ERA in 17 starts), none of the righties in the Pirates? rotation give us very much cause for concern. BEST BET: Braves vs. all righthanders except Snell.
Colorado at Milwaukee (3) 13th, 14th, 15th
The Rockies have knocked off some quality teams in 2007, and their numbers vs. righthanded pitchers are outstanding (+$1060 with 5.1 runs per game). But Miller Park has been a very unwelcoming venue for visiting teams so far in 2007 (Brewers 30-13, +$1130 at home) and Milwaukee shows no signs of surrendering their hold on first place in the NL Central without a fight. Chris Capuano has faded somewhat after a strong start, but his numbers at home are still solid (3.52 ERA) and the Rockies have been vulnerable to lefthanders (10-14, -$440 with 4.2 runs per game). BEST BET: Capuano.
San Diego at Arizona (3) 13th, 14th, 15th
They?ll be plenty of exciting intra-division series in the NL West as the 2nd half gets underway and this series looks like a prime example. Arizona as had success here at Chase Field, but the Padres are a terrific road team (+$575) and they have a team ERA (3.07) that is nearly a full run lower than Arizona?s (4.00). The D?Backs? rotation has struggled in recent days (6.15 ERA last 11), and even Cy Young winner Brandon Webb is struggling (6.23 last two starts). San Diego is just a better team. BEST BET: Padres in all games.
L.A. Dodgers at San Francisco (3) 13th, 14th, 15th
The Dodgers lost some ground going into the All-Star Break, dropping consecutive series at home to the Padres, Braves and Marlins, but they get a chance to regain lost ground against a weak division rival (SF only 38-48, -$1075 so far in 2007). LA has outstanding statistics (3.84 team ERA, 2nd best in the NL, .269 team BA, 3rd best) and they check in here with a 16-8 (+$650) mark against lefthanders. They look like an excellent value against Noah Lowry and Barry Zito, at least one of whom should see action at ATT Park this weekend. BEST BET: Dodgers vs. Zito & Lowry.
Kansas City at Cleveland (3) 13th, 14th, 15th
The Royals had a very nice month of June, and it?s hard to go against a team that keeps turning a profit vs. righthanders in road games (+$1170 so far). But the Indians continue to pound the baseball (4.9 runs per game last 11 games) and they?ve been dominant here at Jacobs Field (31-12, +$1305). Their best bet is with their lefthanders, given KC?s lackluster performance against southpaws to date (only 8-17, -$570 so far). We?ll play this series accordingly. BEST BET: Lefthanders vs. the Royals.
Texas at L.A. Angels (3) 13th, 14th, 15th
The Angels have taken 7 out of 10 from the sad-sack Rangers (+$295) and the way they?ve played in this ballpark, particularly against righthanders (21-8, +$670, with 6.2 runs per game) things are not likely to change. Texas is a terrible team (5.12 team ERA, .257 team BA, near the bottom of the AL in both departments) and none of the 10 starters they?ve used this year has an ERA lower than 5.36. Prices may be high, but the visitor will be hard pressed to salvage a single victory. BEST BET: Angels in all games.
