BEGINNING THURSDAY MAY 8
Baltimore at Kansas City (4) 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th
The Orioles are still holding up in the AL East, while the Royals have reversed course, landing them back in the Central Division basement as expected. Their starting pitching, with the exception of Zack Greinke, has tailed off dramatically (4.70 ERA last 10 days). Baltimore has gotten a strong showing by lefthander Brian Burres in five starts this year (+$205, 2.97 ERA). He?s expected to see action in this series, and should get the best of a KC team that is averaging just 2.8 runs per game vs. southpaws. BEST BET: Burres.
BEGINNING FRIDAY MAY 9
Arizona at Chicago Cubs (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
These look like the two best teams in the NL right now, with both clubs enjoying a mix of quality pitching and hitting (Cubs .286 team BA, 3.91 ERA . . . D?Backs .271 BA, 3.36 ERA). It?s important to avoid the top tier starters for each team, opting instead to go against the less effective hurlers. Arizona has posted a solid 8-3 record against lefthanders, including a 5-1 mark in road games (+$410). Neither Ted Lilly (5.98) nor Rich Hill (4.12) has looked particularly impressive, and both are expected to be on the mound at Wrigley Field this weekend. BEST BET: Diamondbacks vs. R. Hill and Lilly.
Atlanta at Pittsburgh (4) 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th
The Braves lost 2 of 3 to the Pirates in an earlier series (-$200) and they should have a better record given their statistics (.280 team BA, 3.46 team ERA). Pittsburgh?s pitching has been a disaster so far (5.28 team ERA, worst in the majors) but Atlanta has been awful outside of Turner Field (only 4-11, -$895), losing repeatedly to some of the league?s most inept teams. It?s difficult to find an angle that we?re comfortable with right now, so we?ll stay on the sidelines until game day draws near. BEST BET: None.
Cincinnati at N.Y. Mets (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Reds have a few weapons, but they?ve hit the skids (3-7, -$490 last 10 days with only 4.0 runs per game and a 5.94 ERA among starters) and their road numbers are atrocious (-$495). The Mets would like to see a bit more pop in their lineup, but their pitching is holding up well (3.87 team ERA) and they should throttle Cincinnati?s anemic offense. Johan Santana will be too expense, but Nelson Figueroa, who?s fared well in four starts (+$215, 3.86) should be an outstanding value. BEST BET: Figueroa.
Florida at Washington (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Nationals put a stop to that horrendous slide they were enduring, and have played very well in recent days (8-2, +$625 last 10). They actually posted an 8-7 record against lefthanders, and the Marlins are a club with a number of southpaws in their rotation. After a decent month of April Florida seems to be heading in the opposite direction (only 4-6, -$105 last 10 days) and Washington has a number of starters with very respectable ERAs. Stay away from Matt Chico, but the rest of the staff looks attractive. BEST BET: All Nationals? pitchers except Chico vs. lefthanders.
St. Louis at Milwaukee (4) 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th
After having been written off in 2008, the Cardinals have risen from the dead, thanks to surprisingly strong work from their starting rotation (3.55 team ERA, 3rd lowest in the league). The Brewers are off to another respectable start, but they lost 3 of their first 5 vs. St. Louis, and their rotation looks shaky once you get past Sheets (2.29) and Gallardo (1.80). Milwaukee is in the red vs. righthanders this year (-$470) and they?ll be facing a steady diet of them when the Cards roll into Miller Park. We should catch some bargains on the visitor. BEST BET: Cardinals unless opposed by Sheets & Gallardo.
Colorado at San Diego (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Padres are getting enough pitching to be competitive (3.99 team ERA), but their offense has been a disaster thus far (.231 team BA, averaging just 3.4 runs per game). The good news is they?ll be home at Petco Park taking on the coldest team in baseball. The Rockies are in a tailspin (3-7, -$430 last 10 days with a 6.64 ERA among starters) and their team BA of .248 ranks them near the bottom in the league. Justin Germano is not scheduled to pitch, and all of the other four members of the San Diego rotation should fare well. BEST BET: Peavy/Maddux/Wolf/C.Young
Philadelphia at San Francisco (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Giants finally bit the bullet an exiled the ineffective Barry Zito to the bullpen, and we can see the positive effect reflected in their recent ERA among starters (3.67 last 10). They?ve benefitted from the emergence of Tim Lincecum (+$215, 1.41 ERA in six starts) and Jonathan Sanchez (+$535, 3.48 ERA in six starts), both of whom are expected to see action this weekend. We?ll us those two when they take the hill, even if Cole Hamels is on the mound, since the Giants are 4-2 (+$265) vs. lefties. BEST BET: Lincecum/J. Sanchez.
Houston at L.A. Dodgers (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Dodgers are the hottest team in baseball right now (8-2,+$580 last 10 days with 7.6 runs per game), thanks to some solid starting pitching (3.64 team ERA) and outstanding offensive production (.284 team BA). Prices might be high on LA, and the Astros? current rotation has no lefties for the Dodgers to beat up on (7.3 runs per game vs. southpaws, only 4.4 vs. righthanders). But Houston is only 2-7 (-$380) in road day games, so we?ll take a shot with the home team in Sunday?s contest. BEST BET: Dodgers in day games.
N.Y. Yankees at Detroit (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Yankees suffered a humiliating three game sweep at home against the resurgent Tigers last week (-$385), but their offense picked up some momentum over the weekend, and they could exact a measure of revenge this weekend at Comerica. The Tigers have been a lousy proposition at home again this year (-$695), and their pitching ranks next to last in the AL (5.00). Veteran Mike Mussina is coming off a pair of strong outings (2.45 ERA last two) and should be available at a reasonable price. BEST BET: Mussina.
Toronto at Cleveland (4) 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th
Considering the quality of their starting pitching (3.45 team ERA, 2nd best in the league), the Blue Jays are a team that is underachieving (15-17, -$590 overall). But the indians are having a great deal of difficulty scoring runs (3.5 per game last 10 days) and they?ve been undercut by the horrible showing by Cy Young ace C.C. Sabathia. The big lefthander will still be favored, so we?ll see if the Toronto hurlers can keep it close. BEST BET: Blue Jays vs. Sabathia.
L.A. Angels at Tampa Bay (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Rays have been a surprise in the early going (6-4, -$245 last 10 days), posting a 8-3 record vs. righthanders here at Tropicana Field (+$560 with 5.0 runs per game). Ervin Santana is the only righty in the Angels rotation that concerns us, and the team has an overall ERA of 4.45, 4th worst in the AL. We?ll take a shot with the home team against a few of LA?s less accomplished arms. BEST BET: Rays vs. all righthanders except E. Santana.
Oakland at Texas (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Athletics have the best pitching in the AL right now (3.26 team ERA) while the hapless Rangers check in with the league?s worst, allowing nearly two runs moire per game (5.18). Oakland has been unstoppable in road games vs. righthanders (8-1, +$1005) and after losing a series to this team at McAfee Coliseum last weekend, they?ll be looking for some payback. Vicente Padilla is the only Texas hurler who concerns us, and he?s due to miss this series entirely. BEST BET: Athletics vs. righthanders.
Boston at Minnesota (4) 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th
The Red Sox are scoring plenty of runs (.285 team BA) but they?ve been very average on the mound thus far (4.11 team ERA), with Daisuke Matsuzaka the only standout (+$600, 2.52 ERA). They?ve posted a disappointing 6-8 record on the road (-$300) and they?ll be in against a pair of young righthanders in Boof Bonser (4.29 ERA) and Nick Blackburn (3.52) who have each flashed excellent form in their first six starts. As long as Boston?s ace is on the bench we?ll grab these two as home underdogs. BEST BET: Bonser & Blackburn unless opposed by Matsuzaka.
Chicago W. Sox at Seattle (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Mariners are reeling after getting drubbed by the Yankees in the Bronx last weekend, dropping their season record to a sorrowful 13-19 (-$815). The White Sox look like a team that could challenge in the AL Central, given the poor starts by their division rivals, but they?ve struggled in recent days (3-6, -$350 last 10 days, averaging just 3.2 runs per game). Eric Bedard and Felix Hernandez are not expected to see action, but Chicago seems like a shaky proposition at the moment. We?ll check back on game day. BEST BET: None.
Baltimore at Kansas City (4) 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th
The Orioles are still holding up in the AL East, while the Royals have reversed course, landing them back in the Central Division basement as expected. Their starting pitching, with the exception of Zack Greinke, has tailed off dramatically (4.70 ERA last 10 days). Baltimore has gotten a strong showing by lefthander Brian Burres in five starts this year (+$205, 2.97 ERA). He?s expected to see action in this series, and should get the best of a KC team that is averaging just 2.8 runs per game vs. southpaws. BEST BET: Burres.
BEGINNING FRIDAY MAY 9
Arizona at Chicago Cubs (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
These look like the two best teams in the NL right now, with both clubs enjoying a mix of quality pitching and hitting (Cubs .286 team BA, 3.91 ERA . . . D?Backs .271 BA, 3.36 ERA). It?s important to avoid the top tier starters for each team, opting instead to go against the less effective hurlers. Arizona has posted a solid 8-3 record against lefthanders, including a 5-1 mark in road games (+$410). Neither Ted Lilly (5.98) nor Rich Hill (4.12) has looked particularly impressive, and both are expected to be on the mound at Wrigley Field this weekend. BEST BET: Diamondbacks vs. R. Hill and Lilly.
Atlanta at Pittsburgh (4) 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th
The Braves lost 2 of 3 to the Pirates in an earlier series (-$200) and they should have a better record given their statistics (.280 team BA, 3.46 team ERA). Pittsburgh?s pitching has been a disaster so far (5.28 team ERA, worst in the majors) but Atlanta has been awful outside of Turner Field (only 4-11, -$895), losing repeatedly to some of the league?s most inept teams. It?s difficult to find an angle that we?re comfortable with right now, so we?ll stay on the sidelines until game day draws near. BEST BET: None.
Cincinnati at N.Y. Mets (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Reds have a few weapons, but they?ve hit the skids (3-7, -$490 last 10 days with only 4.0 runs per game and a 5.94 ERA among starters) and their road numbers are atrocious (-$495). The Mets would like to see a bit more pop in their lineup, but their pitching is holding up well (3.87 team ERA) and they should throttle Cincinnati?s anemic offense. Johan Santana will be too expense, but Nelson Figueroa, who?s fared well in four starts (+$215, 3.86) should be an outstanding value. BEST BET: Figueroa.
Florida at Washington (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Nationals put a stop to that horrendous slide they were enduring, and have played very well in recent days (8-2, +$625 last 10). They actually posted an 8-7 record against lefthanders, and the Marlins are a club with a number of southpaws in their rotation. After a decent month of April Florida seems to be heading in the opposite direction (only 4-6, -$105 last 10 days) and Washington has a number of starters with very respectable ERAs. Stay away from Matt Chico, but the rest of the staff looks attractive. BEST BET: All Nationals? pitchers except Chico vs. lefthanders.
St. Louis at Milwaukee (4) 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th
After having been written off in 2008, the Cardinals have risen from the dead, thanks to surprisingly strong work from their starting rotation (3.55 team ERA, 3rd lowest in the league). The Brewers are off to another respectable start, but they lost 3 of their first 5 vs. St. Louis, and their rotation looks shaky once you get past Sheets (2.29) and Gallardo (1.80). Milwaukee is in the red vs. righthanders this year (-$470) and they?ll be facing a steady diet of them when the Cards roll into Miller Park. We should catch some bargains on the visitor. BEST BET: Cardinals unless opposed by Sheets & Gallardo.
Colorado at San Diego (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Padres are getting enough pitching to be competitive (3.99 team ERA), but their offense has been a disaster thus far (.231 team BA, averaging just 3.4 runs per game). The good news is they?ll be home at Petco Park taking on the coldest team in baseball. The Rockies are in a tailspin (3-7, -$430 last 10 days with a 6.64 ERA among starters) and their team BA of .248 ranks them near the bottom in the league. Justin Germano is not scheduled to pitch, and all of the other four members of the San Diego rotation should fare well. BEST BET: Peavy/Maddux/Wolf/C.Young
Philadelphia at San Francisco (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Giants finally bit the bullet an exiled the ineffective Barry Zito to the bullpen, and we can see the positive effect reflected in their recent ERA among starters (3.67 last 10). They?ve benefitted from the emergence of Tim Lincecum (+$215, 1.41 ERA in six starts) and Jonathan Sanchez (+$535, 3.48 ERA in six starts), both of whom are expected to see action this weekend. We?ll us those two when they take the hill, even if Cole Hamels is on the mound, since the Giants are 4-2 (+$265) vs. lefties. BEST BET: Lincecum/J. Sanchez.
Houston at L.A. Dodgers (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Dodgers are the hottest team in baseball right now (8-2,+$580 last 10 days with 7.6 runs per game), thanks to some solid starting pitching (3.64 team ERA) and outstanding offensive production (.284 team BA). Prices might be high on LA, and the Astros? current rotation has no lefties for the Dodgers to beat up on (7.3 runs per game vs. southpaws, only 4.4 vs. righthanders). But Houston is only 2-7 (-$380) in road day games, so we?ll take a shot with the home team in Sunday?s contest. BEST BET: Dodgers in day games.
N.Y. Yankees at Detroit (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Yankees suffered a humiliating three game sweep at home against the resurgent Tigers last week (-$385), but their offense picked up some momentum over the weekend, and they could exact a measure of revenge this weekend at Comerica. The Tigers have been a lousy proposition at home again this year (-$695), and their pitching ranks next to last in the AL (5.00). Veteran Mike Mussina is coming off a pair of strong outings (2.45 ERA last two) and should be available at a reasonable price. BEST BET: Mussina.
Toronto at Cleveland (4) 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th
Considering the quality of their starting pitching (3.45 team ERA, 2nd best in the league), the Blue Jays are a team that is underachieving (15-17, -$590 overall). But the indians are having a great deal of difficulty scoring runs (3.5 per game last 10 days) and they?ve been undercut by the horrible showing by Cy Young ace C.C. Sabathia. The big lefthander will still be favored, so we?ll see if the Toronto hurlers can keep it close. BEST BET: Blue Jays vs. Sabathia.
L.A. Angels at Tampa Bay (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Rays have been a surprise in the early going (6-4, -$245 last 10 days), posting a 8-3 record vs. righthanders here at Tropicana Field (+$560 with 5.0 runs per game). Ervin Santana is the only righty in the Angels rotation that concerns us, and the team has an overall ERA of 4.45, 4th worst in the AL. We?ll take a shot with the home team against a few of LA?s less accomplished arms. BEST BET: Rays vs. all righthanders except E. Santana.
Oakland at Texas (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Athletics have the best pitching in the AL right now (3.26 team ERA) while the hapless Rangers check in with the league?s worst, allowing nearly two runs moire per game (5.18). Oakland has been unstoppable in road games vs. righthanders (8-1, +$1005) and after losing a series to this team at McAfee Coliseum last weekend, they?ll be looking for some payback. Vicente Padilla is the only Texas hurler who concerns us, and he?s due to miss this series entirely. BEST BET: Athletics vs. righthanders.
Boston at Minnesota (4) 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th
The Red Sox are scoring plenty of runs (.285 team BA) but they?ve been very average on the mound thus far (4.11 team ERA), with Daisuke Matsuzaka the only standout (+$600, 2.52 ERA). They?ve posted a disappointing 6-8 record on the road (-$300) and they?ll be in against a pair of young righthanders in Boof Bonser (4.29 ERA) and Nick Blackburn (3.52) who have each flashed excellent form in their first six starts. As long as Boston?s ace is on the bench we?ll grab these two as home underdogs. BEST BET: Bonser & Blackburn unless opposed by Matsuzaka.
Chicago W. Sox at Seattle (3) 9th, 10th, 11th
The Mariners are reeling after getting drubbed by the Yankees in the Bronx last weekend, dropping their season record to a sorrowful 13-19 (-$815). The White Sox look like a team that could challenge in the AL Central, given the poor starts by their division rivals, but they?ve struggled in recent days (3-6, -$350 last 10 days, averaging just 3.2 runs per game). Eric Bedard and Felix Hernandez are not expected to see action, but Chicago seems like a shaky proposition at the moment. We?ll check back on game day. BEST BET: None.
