BEGINNING THURSDAY JULY 5
L.A. Dodgers at Arizona (4) 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th
The Dodgers have been sinking fast in the NL West and it has not been pretty. They?ve dropped 9 of their last 11 (-$750), averaging just 2.0 runs per game with a 4.95 ERA among starters. And after a shaky start the D?backs have picked up the pace considerably, climbing to within four games of first place in the division. LA has lost money on the road vs. lefties (only 7-11, -$405) so take a shot with Wade Miley, who pitched poorly in his last start but who still owns a 2.85 ERA (+$560). BEST BET: Miley.
Cincinnati at San Diego (4) 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th
The Reds have surged to the top slot in the NL Central thanks in large part to their bullpen, which boasts one of the lowest ERAs in the NL (2.87). Johnny Cueto has been their most reliable hurler (+$605, 2.26 ERA in 16 starts) and he?ll bet another shot at Petco Park in this series. The Reds have dominated in day games (20-11, +$890) while San Diego has floundered at home (-$715). Good opportunity for the visitor. BEST BET: Cueto/Reds in day games.
Tampa Bay at Cleveland (4) 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th
The Rays have been struggling in recent days (3-8, +$515 in their last 11), falling well behind first place New York in the AL East standings. The Indians have been fighting to maintain a .500 record record, but they are close to Chicago in the AL Central, and they?ve been sensational vs. righthanders here at Progressive Field (18-10, +$750). Tampa?s righties have been adequate at best, so we?ll try our luck with the home team. BEST BET: Indians vs. righthanders.
Baltimore at L.A. Angels (4) 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th
The Orioles have had a remarkable season, but it could all be heading south as the All-Star break approaches (3-6, -$400 last 10 days, averaging 3.0 runs per game with a 7.43 ERA among starters). The Angels have picked up the pace considerably following their dismal first several weeks, moving well above .500 and into serious playoff contention. But Baltimore?s road numbers are imposing (+$1125) so we?ll hold back for now. BEST BET: None.
BEGINNING FRIDAY JULY 6
Atlanta at Philadelphia (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
These are dark days for the Phillies (3-8, -$695 in their last 11), as they languish in the NL East basement with a dysfunctional pitching staff (4.13 ERA) and an inconsistent offense. They?ve been the biggest money-burners in baseball this year, including a 17-24 record here at Citizens Bank (-$1870). Atlanta has cleaned up on the road (+$850) and we like their chances of taking at least 2 out of 3 this weekend. BEST BET: Braves in all games.
San Francisco at Pittsburgh (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Pirates are coming off a sizzling hot month of June, and they find themselves in serious contention in the competitive NL Central. They?ve racked up impressive winnings overall (+$1485) and they are 10 games over .500 here at PNC Park. The Giants have moved into 1st place in the West, and their stats are solid (.261 team BA, 3.37 ERA). But they?ve lost money on the road vs. righties (-$335) and the Bucs have a good one in James McDonald (+$590, 2.24 ERA), who?s expected to see action. BEST BET: McDonald.
Colorado at Washington (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Nationals are having quite a season thus far. Their pitching is still the best in MLB (3.18 ERA) and the offense has improved. The Rockies? pitching (5.43 ERA) is allowing well over two runs more per game than Washington?s, and they check in here with a 12-23 record outside of Coors Field (-$705). The visitor will be fortunate to avoid a sweep this weekend. BEST BET: Nationals in all games.
Chicago Cubs at N.Y. Mets (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Mets have been playing well, but they managed to drop 2 out of 3 when they visited Wrigley in June (-$150). They have been deadly vs. righthanders, however, (+$1720 so far) and the rotation Chicago is sending has one of the worst records in MLB (4.43 ERA). The Cubs are only 6-17 vs. lefthanders this year (-$1115 with 3.2 runs per game) and they?ll be up against one of the best in Johan Santana (2.76 ERA in 16 starts). Prices on this game may be very high, but we love his chances. BEST BET: J. Santana/Mets vs. righthanders.
Milwaukee at Houston (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Astros have been very profitable here at Minute Maid Park (+$770) and they could improve on that record this weekend. The Brewers are only 16-23 outside of Miller Park (-$870) and they continue to under-perform in all facets of the game (.242 BA, 4.21 ERA). Houston has a pair of quality lefties in Wandy Rodriguez (3.54) and Dallas Keuchel (1.35 in three starts), both of whom are likely to see action. BEST BET: W. Rodriguez/Keuchel.
Miami at St. Louis (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Cardinals took 3 out of 4 the first time these clubs met (+$265) and all is not well in Miami. After a decent stretch in May the team has fallen well of the pace in the NL East (-$910 overall) and they could be vulnerable here at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals own the best team BA in the NL (.274) but they?ve won far fewer games than we expected, and they?ve been a terrible proposition at home (only 18-18, -$950). We?ll pass on this one. BEST BET: None.
Kansas City at Detroit (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Royals have been an outstanding betting proposition in their road games this year (+$1040) and they are more than capable of upending the Tigers here at Comerica. Detroit continues to languish below .500 in the AL Central, and they?ve been a disaster vs. lefthanded pitching (8-13, -$1020, averaging only 3.6 runs per game in those contests). BEST BET: Lefthanders vs. the Tigers.
N.Y. Yankees at Boston (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
These teams have only played two head to head games (NY 2-0, +$205) as the season hits the halfway point, so they?ll be squaring off frequently between now and October. The Red Sox have improved considerably since recovering from some of their early season woes, but the Yanks are very formidable right now, and they?ve turned a profit on the road (+$740). Boston is only 10-17 vs. righties at Fenway Park (+$1315) and they?ll be facing a hot trio in Kuroda, Hughes & Nova. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Red Sox.
Minnesota at Texas (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Rangers stomped the Twins in their first series (3-0, +$300) and while they?ve shown some improvement, this is not a good time to take on Texas (Rangers 7-3 in the last 10 days). The home team averages 5.4 runs per game and Minnesota has the weakest pitching in the league (4.92 ERA). If prices are reasonable we?ll stick with the home team. BEST BET: Rangers at -175 or less.
Toronto at Chicago W. Sox (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The White Sox are a quality team, but as long as they continue losing at US Cellular we?ll be looking to take the other side (-$780). They average only 3.4 runs per game vs. lefthanders (-$605) and they?ll be taking on Ricky Romero, who?s been profitable (+$445 in 16 starts) despite racking up a high ERA. BEST BET: Romero.
Seattle at Oakland (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
These teams have already played each other 10 times this year, including that pair in Tokyo to open the regular season (Mariners 6-4, +$180 in those contests). Oakland?s pitching has been improving steadily (3.55 team ERA, 2nd best in the AL) and they?ve turned a nice profit vs. righties at home (+$340). Felix Hernandez is likely to miss this series, and no other Seattle starter gives us cause for concern. BEST BET: Athletics vs. all righthanders except F. Hernandez.
L.A. Dodgers at Arizona (4) 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th
The Dodgers have been sinking fast in the NL West and it has not been pretty. They?ve dropped 9 of their last 11 (-$750), averaging just 2.0 runs per game with a 4.95 ERA among starters. And after a shaky start the D?backs have picked up the pace considerably, climbing to within four games of first place in the division. LA has lost money on the road vs. lefties (only 7-11, -$405) so take a shot with Wade Miley, who pitched poorly in his last start but who still owns a 2.85 ERA (+$560). BEST BET: Miley.
Cincinnati at San Diego (4) 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th
The Reds have surged to the top slot in the NL Central thanks in large part to their bullpen, which boasts one of the lowest ERAs in the NL (2.87). Johnny Cueto has been their most reliable hurler (+$605, 2.26 ERA in 16 starts) and he?ll bet another shot at Petco Park in this series. The Reds have dominated in day games (20-11, +$890) while San Diego has floundered at home (-$715). Good opportunity for the visitor. BEST BET: Cueto/Reds in day games.
Tampa Bay at Cleveland (4) 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th
The Rays have been struggling in recent days (3-8, +$515 in their last 11), falling well behind first place New York in the AL East standings. The Indians have been fighting to maintain a .500 record record, but they are close to Chicago in the AL Central, and they?ve been sensational vs. righthanders here at Progressive Field (18-10, +$750). Tampa?s righties have been adequate at best, so we?ll try our luck with the home team. BEST BET: Indians vs. righthanders.
Baltimore at L.A. Angels (4) 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th
The Orioles have had a remarkable season, but it could all be heading south as the All-Star break approaches (3-6, -$400 last 10 days, averaging 3.0 runs per game with a 7.43 ERA among starters). The Angels have picked up the pace considerably following their dismal first several weeks, moving well above .500 and into serious playoff contention. But Baltimore?s road numbers are imposing (+$1125) so we?ll hold back for now. BEST BET: None.
BEGINNING FRIDAY JULY 6
Atlanta at Philadelphia (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
These are dark days for the Phillies (3-8, -$695 in their last 11), as they languish in the NL East basement with a dysfunctional pitching staff (4.13 ERA) and an inconsistent offense. They?ve been the biggest money-burners in baseball this year, including a 17-24 record here at Citizens Bank (-$1870). Atlanta has cleaned up on the road (+$850) and we like their chances of taking at least 2 out of 3 this weekend. BEST BET: Braves in all games.
San Francisco at Pittsburgh (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Pirates are coming off a sizzling hot month of June, and they find themselves in serious contention in the competitive NL Central. They?ve racked up impressive winnings overall (+$1485) and they are 10 games over .500 here at PNC Park. The Giants have moved into 1st place in the West, and their stats are solid (.261 team BA, 3.37 ERA). But they?ve lost money on the road vs. righties (-$335) and the Bucs have a good one in James McDonald (+$590, 2.24 ERA), who?s expected to see action. BEST BET: McDonald.
Colorado at Washington (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Nationals are having quite a season thus far. Their pitching is still the best in MLB (3.18 ERA) and the offense has improved. The Rockies? pitching (5.43 ERA) is allowing well over two runs more per game than Washington?s, and they check in here with a 12-23 record outside of Coors Field (-$705). The visitor will be fortunate to avoid a sweep this weekend. BEST BET: Nationals in all games.
Chicago Cubs at N.Y. Mets (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Mets have been playing well, but they managed to drop 2 out of 3 when they visited Wrigley in June (-$150). They have been deadly vs. righthanders, however, (+$1720 so far) and the rotation Chicago is sending has one of the worst records in MLB (4.43 ERA). The Cubs are only 6-17 vs. lefthanders this year (-$1115 with 3.2 runs per game) and they?ll be up against one of the best in Johan Santana (2.76 ERA in 16 starts). Prices on this game may be very high, but we love his chances. BEST BET: J. Santana/Mets vs. righthanders.
Milwaukee at Houston (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Astros have been very profitable here at Minute Maid Park (+$770) and they could improve on that record this weekend. The Brewers are only 16-23 outside of Miller Park (-$870) and they continue to under-perform in all facets of the game (.242 BA, 4.21 ERA). Houston has a pair of quality lefties in Wandy Rodriguez (3.54) and Dallas Keuchel (1.35 in three starts), both of whom are likely to see action. BEST BET: W. Rodriguez/Keuchel.
Miami at St. Louis (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Cardinals took 3 out of 4 the first time these clubs met (+$265) and all is not well in Miami. After a decent stretch in May the team has fallen well of the pace in the NL East (-$910 overall) and they could be vulnerable here at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals own the best team BA in the NL (.274) but they?ve won far fewer games than we expected, and they?ve been a terrible proposition at home (only 18-18, -$950). We?ll pass on this one. BEST BET: None.
Kansas City at Detroit (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Royals have been an outstanding betting proposition in their road games this year (+$1040) and they are more than capable of upending the Tigers here at Comerica. Detroit continues to languish below .500 in the AL Central, and they?ve been a disaster vs. lefthanded pitching (8-13, -$1020, averaging only 3.6 runs per game in those contests). BEST BET: Lefthanders vs. the Tigers.
N.Y. Yankees at Boston (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
These teams have only played two head to head games (NY 2-0, +$205) as the season hits the halfway point, so they?ll be squaring off frequently between now and October. The Red Sox have improved considerably since recovering from some of their early season woes, but the Yanks are very formidable right now, and they?ve turned a profit on the road (+$740). Boston is only 10-17 vs. righties at Fenway Park (+$1315) and they?ll be facing a hot trio in Kuroda, Hughes & Nova. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Red Sox.
Minnesota at Texas (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Rangers stomped the Twins in their first series (3-0, +$300) and while they?ve shown some improvement, this is not a good time to take on Texas (Rangers 7-3 in the last 10 days). The home team averages 5.4 runs per game and Minnesota has the weakest pitching in the league (4.92 ERA). If prices are reasonable we?ll stick with the home team. BEST BET: Rangers at -175 or less.
Toronto at Chicago W. Sox (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The White Sox are a quality team, but as long as they continue losing at US Cellular we?ll be looking to take the other side (-$780). They average only 3.4 runs per game vs. lefthanders (-$605) and they?ll be taking on Ricky Romero, who?s been profitable (+$445 in 16 starts) despite racking up a high ERA. BEST BET: Romero.
Seattle at Oakland (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
These teams have already played each other 10 times this year, including that pair in Tokyo to open the regular season (Mariners 6-4, +$180 in those contests). Oakland?s pitching has been improving steadily (3.55 team ERA, 2nd best in the AL) and they?ve turned a nice profit vs. righties at home (+$340). Felix Hernandez is likely to miss this series, and no other Seattle starter gives us cause for concern. BEST BET: Athletics vs. all righthanders except F. Hernandez.
