BEGINNING THURSDAY, MAY 14
San Francisco at Cincinnati (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
Both these teams are hovering near the .500 mark but this looks like a good spot for the Reds to make up some ground in the NL Central. San Francisco has been playing well in recent days, but they?ve fared poorly against righthanders this year (-$735, averaging just 3.0 runs per game) and they?ll face a steady diet vs. the all-righty Reds rotation (3.75 ERA among starters in the last 10 days). Cincinnati is 10-4 in night games vs. righties (+$720) and with three evening contests scheduled we should get a couple of chances at Great American this weekend. BEST BET: Reds vs. righthanders in night games.
Washington at San Diego (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The Nationals have bounced back after a mediocre month of April (8-2, +$530 in their last 10, with a 2.97 ERA among starters) but they face a formidable task here at Petco Park. The Padres are averaging close to 5.0 runs per game this year, and they?ve been especially tough on lefthanders. We?ll stay away from lone southpaw Gio Gonzalez and the Washington pitchers who are still rounding into form. But Max Scherzer is looking very sharp (2.11 ERA in six starts) as is Doug Fister (2.79). Both are slated to appear in this series, hopefully at a reasonable road price. BEST BET: Scherzer/Fister.
Colorado at L.A. Dodgers (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The Rockies are crashing and burning rapidly, having lost their last nine straight in a week interrupted repeatedly by unseasonable weather in Colorado. Their team ERA is the worst in baseball (5.47) and they are winless vs. LA in head to head competition this year (0-5, -$500). The Dodgers continue to comfortably coast along atop the NL West (20-10, +$565 overall). They?ve scored more runs than any other NL club (over 5.0 per game) and the pitching ranks 4th in the league (3.21) despite Kershaw's poor start and a rash of injuries. Perhaps the Rockies can steal a victory at Chavez Ravine, but we?ll back the home team throughout. BEST BET: Dodgers in all games.
Toronto at Houston (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The Astros have cooled off a bit, but they are maintaining their early lead in the AL West thanks to strong pitching (3.45 ERA, 4th best in the league), something the Blue Jays are sorely lacking. Toronto checks in with an ugly 4.59 team ERA, and not a single starter has impressed. They can score runs (5.4 per game on average so far) so caution is advised. We?ll limit ourselves to a play on Dallas Keuchel (+$445, 1.39 ERA in seven appearances), who due to take a turn at Minute Maid Park this weekend. BEST BET: Keuchel.
Boston at Seattle (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The Mariners had high hopes coming into the season, and while they are hitting somewhat better than was the case in 2014, it?s still not enough (3.7 per game). At the same time, the pitching has declined noticeably (4.12 team ERA), with Chris Young having departed and Hisashi Iwakuma sidelined. But Boston has been a disaster (2-7, -$660 in the last 10 days, averaging 2.4 runs per game on offense) and they rank dead last in pitching in the AL (4.97). Nothing looks appealing at the present time. BEST BET: None.
BEGINNING FRIDAY, MAY 15
Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
The Pirates grabbed a couple of badly needed victories vs. St. Louis last weekend, preventing the Cardinals from extending their very healthy lead in the NL Central. They have a huge pitching edge over Chicago (3.12 ERA vs. 4.35 for the Cubs) and we like their chances at Wrigley Field this weekend. The Cubs have dropped 7 of their last 10 (-$520) and they?ve been a money-burner at home when facing righthanders (-$310, averaging just 3.0 runs per game). Take a shot with the visitor here. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Cubs.
Arizona at Philadelphia (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
The Phillies were expected to be terrible this year and that has indeed proved to be the case. They check in with a 4.35 ERA (4th lowest in the National League) and they are averaging under 3.0 runs per game on offense (.228 team BA). The Diamondbacks are off to a respectable start following a disastrous 2014, aided by a 3.86 team ERA. The Phillies are only 4-13 outside of Citizens Bank to start the year (-$700) and they could be facing the best Arizona has to offer. Josh Collmenter (3.63) and Chase Anderson (2.97) have begun the year well, and Archie Bradley (+$545, 1.80 ERA in four starts) is expected back from his stint on the DL. We?ll back any and all of that trio. BEST BET: C. Anderson/Collmenter/Bradley.
Milwaukee at N.Y. Mets (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
The Mets still haven?t figured things out at the plate (.239 team BA, averaging less than 4.0 runs per game) but the pitching has been exemplary (2.86 team ERA, 2nd best in MLB) and they should brush aside the hapless Brewers with little difficulty. Milwaukee is the worst team in baseball this season (11-21, -$950). They rank next to last in the NL in both team BA (.229) and ERA (4.64). New York has compiled a 13-3 record playing at CitiField (+$995) and it?s hard to see how Milwaukee steals a win this weekend. We?ll lay the inflated prices on the home team throughout. BEST BET: Mets in all games.
Atlanta at Miami (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
The Braves got the jump on Miami when they faced off in April, before the Marlins got hot (4-2, +$290). Since then the home team has looked much better (.268 team BA, 3rd best in the NL) and if they get some of their pitching aces back they could challenge for a post-season berth. Atlanta?s pitching has been lousy (4.47 ERA) and they?ve been disappointed by the poor showing by their lone lefthanded starter Alex Wood. He checks in with a 4.28 ERA in seven outings (-$555) and that?s bad news when taking on a Miami club that has dominated southpaws the past two seasons (5-1, +$435, averaging 5.5 runs per game so far). BEST BET: Marlins vs. A. Wood.
L.A. Angels at Baltimore (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
The Angels have been notoriously slow starters over the years, and they?ve gotten off to another lackluster beginning here in 2015 (only 15-17, -$395 so far). The offense is struggling (.228 team BA, next to last in the AL) and they?ll face some pitchers at Camden Yards who are performing quite well. Lefthander Wei-Tin Chen is of to a fine start (+$200, 2.52 ERA in six appearances) and Ubaldo Jimenez has flashed the form that made him such a dominant force back in 2010 (2.36 ERA in five starts). Both are likely to take the mound in this series. BEST BET: W. Chen/Jimenez.
Cleveland at Texas (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
Dark days at Progressive Field, where the beleaguered Indians have floundered in 2015. Cleveland has been one of the worst team in baseball so far (11-19, -$1205 overall). Their pitching has been dreadful (4.75 ERA) and defending Cy Young winner Corey Kluber remains winless as Memorial Day approaches (-$940, 5.04 ERA). Texas is not a great home team, but they have a pair of solid righthanders in Nick Martinez (+$785, 1.47 ERA in six starts) and Colby Lewis (2.61 in six starts). Both are likely to be on the hill at Arlington for this showdown. BEST BET: N. Martinez/C. Lewis.
N.Y. Yankees at Kansas City (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
The Yankees passed their first test vs. the AL Central when they took 3 out of 4 at Comerica in April. Since then they?ve stayed very hot (7-3, +$430 last 10 days) but KC presents a formidable obstacle. The defending AL Champs lead the AL in both pitching (.23 ERA) and in team BA (.290). Their bullpen is even better than last year (1.45 ERA) and they?ve turned a nice profit here at Kaufman Stadium (+$480). New York has made a bundle for their backers on the road thus far (+$740) so it?s hard to give an edge to either side. We?ll look again on game day. BEST BET: None.
Tampa Bay at Minnesota (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
No one expected much from the Twins in 2015, but they?ve won 9 of their last 11 (+$855, averaging 7.0 runs per game on offense) and they?ve narrowed the gap in the AL Central. They are 12-5 playing here at Target Field (+$915) and they have a chance to continue their winning ways vs. a Tampa team that averages just 3.8 runs per game at the plate. The Rays rotation has now lost Drew Smyly for the year, and Alex Cobb is currently slated for elbow surgery. If we can get a reasonable price on the home team we?ll look for them to enjoy further success. BEST BET: Twins at -115 or less.
Chicago W. Sox at Oakland (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
The wheels have come off for the Athletics since last year?s All-Star break. They revamped a first place club at mid-season, only to see themselves collapse in the standings. Now they are mired in last place in the AL West (12-21, -$1275) and we see little value in them here at the Coliseum. Unfortunately, the White Sox do not appear to be a club that can capitalize on Oakland?s weaknesses. Chicago is only 2-11 when playing away from US Cellar (-$940) and their pitching continues to flounder (4.48 team ERA). BEST BET: None.
Detroit at St. Louis (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
Terrific inter-league matchup should be one to keep an eye on. St. Louis is the dominant team in baseball right now (22-9, +$1145), with the best ERA in the majors (2.75) and a .273 team BA, good for 2nd best in the NL. They are 12-1 vs. righthanders at Busch Stadium (+$1025) and the righties in Detroit?s rotation strike little fear. The Tigers have lost 6 of their last 10 (-$250), averaging just 3.1 runs per game in those contests. St. Louis is opening a fat lead in the NL Central, and it may be the case that they face no serious challenge in that division this year. BEST BET: Cardinals vs. righthanders.
San Francisco at Cincinnati (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
Both these teams are hovering near the .500 mark but this looks like a good spot for the Reds to make up some ground in the NL Central. San Francisco has been playing well in recent days, but they?ve fared poorly against righthanders this year (-$735, averaging just 3.0 runs per game) and they?ll face a steady diet vs. the all-righty Reds rotation (3.75 ERA among starters in the last 10 days). Cincinnati is 10-4 in night games vs. righties (+$720) and with three evening contests scheduled we should get a couple of chances at Great American this weekend. BEST BET: Reds vs. righthanders in night games.
Washington at San Diego (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The Nationals have bounced back after a mediocre month of April (8-2, +$530 in their last 10, with a 2.97 ERA among starters) but they face a formidable task here at Petco Park. The Padres are averaging close to 5.0 runs per game this year, and they?ve been especially tough on lefthanders. We?ll stay away from lone southpaw Gio Gonzalez and the Washington pitchers who are still rounding into form. But Max Scherzer is looking very sharp (2.11 ERA in six starts) as is Doug Fister (2.79). Both are slated to appear in this series, hopefully at a reasonable road price. BEST BET: Scherzer/Fister.
Colorado at L.A. Dodgers (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The Rockies are crashing and burning rapidly, having lost their last nine straight in a week interrupted repeatedly by unseasonable weather in Colorado. Their team ERA is the worst in baseball (5.47) and they are winless vs. LA in head to head competition this year (0-5, -$500). The Dodgers continue to comfortably coast along atop the NL West (20-10, +$565 overall). They?ve scored more runs than any other NL club (over 5.0 per game) and the pitching ranks 4th in the league (3.21) despite Kershaw's poor start and a rash of injuries. Perhaps the Rockies can steal a victory at Chavez Ravine, but we?ll back the home team throughout. BEST BET: Dodgers in all games.
Toronto at Houston (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The Astros have cooled off a bit, but they are maintaining their early lead in the AL West thanks to strong pitching (3.45 ERA, 4th best in the league), something the Blue Jays are sorely lacking. Toronto checks in with an ugly 4.59 team ERA, and not a single starter has impressed. They can score runs (5.4 per game on average so far) so caution is advised. We?ll limit ourselves to a play on Dallas Keuchel (+$445, 1.39 ERA in seven appearances), who due to take a turn at Minute Maid Park this weekend. BEST BET: Keuchel.
Boston at Seattle (4) 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
The Mariners had high hopes coming into the season, and while they are hitting somewhat better than was the case in 2014, it?s still not enough (3.7 per game). At the same time, the pitching has declined noticeably (4.12 team ERA), with Chris Young having departed and Hisashi Iwakuma sidelined. But Boston has been a disaster (2-7, -$660 in the last 10 days, averaging 2.4 runs per game on offense) and they rank dead last in pitching in the AL (4.97). Nothing looks appealing at the present time. BEST BET: None.
BEGINNING FRIDAY, MAY 15
Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
The Pirates grabbed a couple of badly needed victories vs. St. Louis last weekend, preventing the Cardinals from extending their very healthy lead in the NL Central. They have a huge pitching edge over Chicago (3.12 ERA vs. 4.35 for the Cubs) and we like their chances at Wrigley Field this weekend. The Cubs have dropped 7 of their last 10 (-$520) and they?ve been a money-burner at home when facing righthanders (-$310, averaging just 3.0 runs per game). Take a shot with the visitor here. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Cubs.
Arizona at Philadelphia (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
The Phillies were expected to be terrible this year and that has indeed proved to be the case. They check in with a 4.35 ERA (4th lowest in the National League) and they are averaging under 3.0 runs per game on offense (.228 team BA). The Diamondbacks are off to a respectable start following a disastrous 2014, aided by a 3.86 team ERA. The Phillies are only 4-13 outside of Citizens Bank to start the year (-$700) and they could be facing the best Arizona has to offer. Josh Collmenter (3.63) and Chase Anderson (2.97) have begun the year well, and Archie Bradley (+$545, 1.80 ERA in four starts) is expected back from his stint on the DL. We?ll back any and all of that trio. BEST BET: C. Anderson/Collmenter/Bradley.
Milwaukee at N.Y. Mets (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
The Mets still haven?t figured things out at the plate (.239 team BA, averaging less than 4.0 runs per game) but the pitching has been exemplary (2.86 team ERA, 2nd best in MLB) and they should brush aside the hapless Brewers with little difficulty. Milwaukee is the worst team in baseball this season (11-21, -$950). They rank next to last in the NL in both team BA (.229) and ERA (4.64). New York has compiled a 13-3 record playing at CitiField (+$995) and it?s hard to see how Milwaukee steals a win this weekend. We?ll lay the inflated prices on the home team throughout. BEST BET: Mets in all games.
Atlanta at Miami (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
The Braves got the jump on Miami when they faced off in April, before the Marlins got hot (4-2, +$290). Since then the home team has looked much better (.268 team BA, 3rd best in the NL) and if they get some of their pitching aces back they could challenge for a post-season berth. Atlanta?s pitching has been lousy (4.47 ERA) and they?ve been disappointed by the poor showing by their lone lefthanded starter Alex Wood. He checks in with a 4.28 ERA in seven outings (-$555) and that?s bad news when taking on a Miami club that has dominated southpaws the past two seasons (5-1, +$435, averaging 5.5 runs per game so far). BEST BET: Marlins vs. A. Wood.
L.A. Angels at Baltimore (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
The Angels have been notoriously slow starters over the years, and they?ve gotten off to another lackluster beginning here in 2015 (only 15-17, -$395 so far). The offense is struggling (.228 team BA, next to last in the AL) and they?ll face some pitchers at Camden Yards who are performing quite well. Lefthander Wei-Tin Chen is of to a fine start (+$200, 2.52 ERA in six appearances) and Ubaldo Jimenez has flashed the form that made him such a dominant force back in 2010 (2.36 ERA in five starts). Both are likely to take the mound in this series. BEST BET: W. Chen/Jimenez.
Cleveland at Texas (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
Dark days at Progressive Field, where the beleaguered Indians have floundered in 2015. Cleveland has been one of the worst team in baseball so far (11-19, -$1205 overall). Their pitching has been dreadful (4.75 ERA) and defending Cy Young winner Corey Kluber remains winless as Memorial Day approaches (-$940, 5.04 ERA). Texas is not a great home team, but they have a pair of solid righthanders in Nick Martinez (+$785, 1.47 ERA in six starts) and Colby Lewis (2.61 in six starts). Both are likely to be on the hill at Arlington for this showdown. BEST BET: N. Martinez/C. Lewis.
N.Y. Yankees at Kansas City (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
The Yankees passed their first test vs. the AL Central when they took 3 out of 4 at Comerica in April. Since then they?ve stayed very hot (7-3, +$430 last 10 days) but KC presents a formidable obstacle. The defending AL Champs lead the AL in both pitching (.23 ERA) and in team BA (.290). Their bullpen is even better than last year (1.45 ERA) and they?ve turned a nice profit here at Kaufman Stadium (+$480). New York has made a bundle for their backers on the road thus far (+$740) so it?s hard to give an edge to either side. We?ll look again on game day. BEST BET: None.
Tampa Bay at Minnesota (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
No one expected much from the Twins in 2015, but they?ve won 9 of their last 11 (+$855, averaging 7.0 runs per game on offense) and they?ve narrowed the gap in the AL Central. They are 12-5 playing here at Target Field (+$915) and they have a chance to continue their winning ways vs. a Tampa team that averages just 3.8 runs per game at the plate. The Rays rotation has now lost Drew Smyly for the year, and Alex Cobb is currently slated for elbow surgery. If we can get a reasonable price on the home team we?ll look for them to enjoy further success. BEST BET: Twins at -115 or less.
Chicago W. Sox at Oakland (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
The wheels have come off for the Athletics since last year?s All-Star break. They revamped a first place club at mid-season, only to see themselves collapse in the standings. Now they are mired in last place in the AL West (12-21, -$1275) and we see little value in them here at the Coliseum. Unfortunately, the White Sox do not appear to be a club that can capitalize on Oakland?s weaknesses. Chicago is only 2-11 when playing away from US Cellar (-$940) and their pitching continues to flounder (4.48 team ERA). BEST BET: None.
Detroit at St. Louis (3) 15th, 16th, 17th
Terrific inter-league matchup should be one to keep an eye on. St. Louis is the dominant team in baseball right now (22-9, +$1145), with the best ERA in the majors (2.75) and a .273 team BA, good for 2nd best in the NL. They are 12-1 vs. righthanders at Busch Stadium (+$1025) and the righties in Detroit?s rotation strike little fear. The Tigers have lost 6 of their last 10 (-$250), averaging just 3.1 runs per game in those contests. St. Louis is opening a fat lead in the NL Central, and it may be the case that they face no serious challenge in that division this year. BEST BET: Cardinals vs. righthanders.
