BEGINNING, THURSDAY, MAY 31
Chicago Cubs at N.Y. Mets (4) 31st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd
The Mets had a rough month of May, but the team is still over
.500 and just four games off the pace in the NL East. With players
soon to return from the DL their fortunes may well improve. The
Cubs have not taken command in the NL Central as expected, and
they?ve proven to be a big money-burner when taking on righthanders
(-$845 in that situation so far). Jacob deGrom has the best
ERA in the National League after 10 starts (1.54), and he?s set to
take the mound at CitiField this weekend. He could be an excellent
value vs. the overpriced Cubs. BEST BET: deGrom.
Pittsburgh at St. Louis (4) 31st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd
The Pirates have taken 4 of 6 from this team in head to head competition
(+$235) and they?ve been a profitable team in day games
(+$310), as was the case in 2017. The Cardinals have a solid mound
corps (3.47 ERA) but they average over half a run less per game
on offense (.240 team BA) and they?ve dropped a bundle vs. righthanders
when playing here at Busch Stadium (-$565). Pittsburgh as
a rotation that is currently all-righty, so they look like a terrific road
underdog. We?ll stick with the Bucs in the two scheduled afternoon
contests. BEST BET: Pirates in day games.
Washington at Atlanta (4) 31st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd
The Nationals have one of the league?s top starting rotations, but
their bullpen is one of the very worst (4.30 ERA) and they will have
their hands full with a hungry Atlanta team clinging to the top slot
in the NL East. The Braves have the best offense in the league (.263
team BA, 5.0 runs per game) and they have a pair of pitchers who
we?ll look forward to using here at Washington. Sean Newcomb has
been spectacular in 10 starts (+$300, 2.75 ERA) and he should fare
well vs. a club that is only 7-11 (-$800) vs. southpaws, averaging
just 3.6 runs per game. Mike Foltynewicz (2.55 ERA in 11 outings)
will also be available, and remember that the Nats are a losing
proposition here at home. BEST BET: Newcomb/Foltynewicz.
N.Y. Yankees at Baltimore (4) 31st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd
The O?s caught the Yankees early in April and managed to take 3
out of 4. But the wheels promptly came off and the team now stands
at 17-36 (-$1770), with a dismal 5.06 team ERA and a .232 team
BA, averaging just 3.9 runs per game at the plate. The Yankees are
the highest scoring team in the majors (5.7 runs per game) and they
rank #3 in team pitching in the AL (3.87 ERA). They?ve won 24 of
their last 31 (+$725 overall) and we like their chances with Masahiro
Tanaka, who looked sharp in his last outing and has led them to
wins in 8 of his 10 starts so far (+$225). BEST BET: Tanaka.
Boston at Houston (4) 31st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd
The Astros have a pitching staff that beats the rest of the league
by a considerable margin (2.61 ERA) but they might have their
hands full at Minute Maid Park taking on the team with MLB?s best
record. The Red Sox have been a big money-maker on the road,
compiling a 19-9 record in the role of visitor (+$730). Boston?s
pitching staff is formidable (3.59 ERA, 2nd best in the AL) and
their abundance of lefty starters is a big advantage vs. a Houston
team that has lost money vs. southpaws in this ballpark (-$765).
BEST BET: Left-handers vs. the Astros.
Cleveland at Minnesota (4) 31st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd
The Indians were expected to cruise to an easy division win, but the
team has struggled on the road (-$695 as visitors) and the pitching
has been surprisingly ineffective (4.22 ERA, 9th out of 15 teams in
the AL). Minnesota could be taking advantage of the Tribe?s weaknesses,
but the team continues to under-perform (3-7, -$530 last 10
days, averaging just 2.9 runs per game at the plate). The Twins have
some promising starters who might be worth a try, but they?ve lost
money here at Target Field (-$340 so far) so we?ll wait until game
day before jumping in. BEST BET: None.
Chicago Cubs at N.Y. Mets (4) 31st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd
The Mets had a rough month of May, but the team is still over
.500 and just four games off the pace in the NL East. With players
soon to return from the DL their fortunes may well improve. The
Cubs have not taken command in the NL Central as expected, and
they?ve proven to be a big money-burner when taking on righthanders
(-$845 in that situation so far). Jacob deGrom has the best
ERA in the National League after 10 starts (1.54), and he?s set to
take the mound at CitiField this weekend. He could be an excellent
value vs. the overpriced Cubs. BEST BET: deGrom.
Pittsburgh at St. Louis (4) 31st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd
The Pirates have taken 4 of 6 from this team in head to head competition
(+$235) and they?ve been a profitable team in day games
(+$310), as was the case in 2017. The Cardinals have a solid mound
corps (3.47 ERA) but they average over half a run less per game
on offense (.240 team BA) and they?ve dropped a bundle vs. righthanders
when playing here at Busch Stadium (-$565). Pittsburgh as
a rotation that is currently all-righty, so they look like a terrific road
underdog. We?ll stick with the Bucs in the two scheduled afternoon
contests. BEST BET: Pirates in day games.
Washington at Atlanta (4) 31st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd
The Nationals have one of the league?s top starting rotations, but
their bullpen is one of the very worst (4.30 ERA) and they will have
their hands full with a hungry Atlanta team clinging to the top slot
in the NL East. The Braves have the best offense in the league (.263
team BA, 5.0 runs per game) and they have a pair of pitchers who
we?ll look forward to using here at Washington. Sean Newcomb has
been spectacular in 10 starts (+$300, 2.75 ERA) and he should fare
well vs. a club that is only 7-11 (-$800) vs. southpaws, averaging
just 3.6 runs per game. Mike Foltynewicz (2.55 ERA in 11 outings)
will also be available, and remember that the Nats are a losing
proposition here at home. BEST BET: Newcomb/Foltynewicz.
N.Y. Yankees at Baltimore (4) 31st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd
The O?s caught the Yankees early in April and managed to take 3
out of 4. But the wheels promptly came off and the team now stands
at 17-36 (-$1770), with a dismal 5.06 team ERA and a .232 team
BA, averaging just 3.9 runs per game at the plate. The Yankees are
the highest scoring team in the majors (5.7 runs per game) and they
rank #3 in team pitching in the AL (3.87 ERA). They?ve won 24 of
their last 31 (+$725 overall) and we like their chances with Masahiro
Tanaka, who looked sharp in his last outing and has led them to
wins in 8 of his 10 starts so far (+$225). BEST BET: Tanaka.
Boston at Houston (4) 31st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd
The Astros have a pitching staff that beats the rest of the league
by a considerable margin (2.61 ERA) but they might have their
hands full at Minute Maid Park taking on the team with MLB?s best
record. The Red Sox have been a big money-maker on the road,
compiling a 19-9 record in the role of visitor (+$730). Boston?s
pitching staff is formidable (3.59 ERA, 2nd best in the AL) and
their abundance of lefty starters is a big advantage vs. a Houston
team that has lost money vs. southpaws in this ballpark (-$765).
BEST BET: Left-handers vs. the Astros.
Cleveland at Minnesota (4) 31st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd
The Indians were expected to cruise to an easy division win, but the
team has struggled on the road (-$695 as visitors) and the pitching
has been surprisingly ineffective (4.22 ERA, 9th out of 15 teams in
the AL). Minnesota could be taking advantage of the Tribe?s weaknesses,
but the team continues to under-perform (3-7, -$530 last 10
days, averaging just 2.9 runs per game at the plate). The Twins have
some promising starters who might be worth a try, but they?ve lost
money here at Target Field (-$340 so far) so we?ll wait until game
day before jumping in. BEST BET: None.
