BEGINNING THURSDAY, MAY 23
Toronto at Detroit (4) 23rd, 24th, 25th, 26th
The Tigers are coming off a rough series vs. the Royals, falling under .500 in recent days (3-7, -$540 last 10). They are only 5-9 in day games at Comerica (-$705), averaging just 3.0 runs per game in those contests. The Blue Jays have had a sub-par season so far, but they have their two top pitchers set to take the mound this weekend. Jose Berrios (2.98 ERA) and Yusei Kikuchi (2.64) should both be available at a decent price, as Toronto attempts to climb out of the AL East basement. BEST BET: Berrios/Kikuchi.
Baltimore at Chicago W. Sox (4) 23rd, 24th, 25th, 26th
The Orioles will be heavily favored throughout the weekend, but they’ve lost 6 of their last 9 (-$550) and it’s not likely they’ll sweep this four game set. Baltimore has been a losing proposition vs. right-handers (-$545) and they’ll have to contend with Erick Fedde (3.10 ERA), who’s led the White Sox to victories in 4 of his 5 starts at home (+$430). He will face a struggling Dean Kremer (7.45 ERA last two outings) on Saturday afternoon, giving the home team it’s best shot at a win vs. the O’s. BEST BET: Fedde vs. Kremer.
BEGINNING FRIDAY, MAY 24
Atlanta at Pittsburgh (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
The Braves have fallen six games behind the surging Phillies as they get set to visit PNC Park. They’ll try to make up ground vs. the Pirates, who have been a disaster when taking on right-handed pitching (13-20, -$820, 3.6 runs per game). Atlanta is 7-1 vs. righties in day games on the road (+$485, 6.1 runs per game) and they’ll be sending Reynaldo Lopez to the mound on Saturday afternoon. He comes in with a 1.54 ERA in his eight starts and should make short work of the anemic Pittsburgh attack. BEST BET: R. Lopez.
L.A. Dodgers at Cincinnati (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
The Reds have fallen into the NL Cellar (20-30, -$975 overall) and now they’ll have to contend with the dreaded Dodgers, who look 3 of 4 from them when they met in LA. The Dodgers have pitched well in 2024 (3.29 team ERA, 4th best in the NL) and they come into Great American Ballpark with an 11-3 record in night games on the road (+$1010). Lefty James Paxton has led the Dodgers to wins in 7 of his 8 starts so far. (+$585, 2.84 ERA). He looks like a solid choice in Friday’s opener. BEST BET: Paxton.
San Francisco at N.Y. Mets (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
The Giants (7-3, +$475 last 10 days) hope to rise above .500 this weekend at CitiField when they take on the floundering Mets. New York has dropped 15 games back in the NL East standings (2-8, -$640 last 10 days, with a 5.60 ERA among starters). The Giants need to improve their road performance, but they have been profitable in day games in all settings (+$750). We’ll take them in the two scheduled afternoon contests. BEST BET: Giants in day games.
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
The Cardinals have won 8 of their last 10 (+$675) and they have closed to within five games of 1st place in the NL Central. They catch the Cubs on the downswing (3-7, -$380 last 10), but Chicago still might make a decent choice in at least one game. Javier Assad (+$565 in 10 starts) has lowered his ERA to a tiny 1.70. He’ll pitch on Sunday night vs. St. Louis ace Sonny Gray, no doubt at a reasonable price. The Cubs are 14-7 in night games when taking on right-handers in 2024 (+$890). BEST BET: Assad.
Philadelphia at Colorado (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
Expect the best team in baseball to be massive favorites at Coors Field this weekend. Phiily has a 37-14 record (+$1735) and they lead the NL in pitching (3.14 team ERA). They swept the Rockies at Citizens Bank (+$300) and they’ve been hot at the plate (6.4 runs per game last 10 days). Perhaps the Rockies can steal a win, but we’re not interested at the moment. BEST BET: None.
Miami at Arizona (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
The Marlins dug themselves a deep hole in April, but they’ve come around nicely in recent days (7-3, +$640 with a 2.73 ERA among starters in their last 10). We like their chances with Ryan Weathers (3.49 ERA in 10 starts, 0.60 ERA last two), who’s slated to take the mound in Sunday’s finale. Arizona is only 3-6 vs. lefties at home (-$430) and their weak bullpen has dragged down their team ERA (4.38, 4th worst in the NL). BEST BET: Weathers.
Kansas City at Tampa Bay (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
The Royals are on a roll, winning their last six in a row to improve their record to 32-19 (+$1465), while keeping pace with Cleveland in the competitive AL Central. Their team ERA (3.40) is almost a full run lower than Tampa’s (4.38), and they have two of their top starters set to take the hill at Tropicana Field. Seth Lugo (+$420, 1.93 ERA) and Brady Singer (+$430, 2.70) should fare well against the Rays, who have lost money vs. right-handers in 2024 (-$895, averaging just 3.7 runs per game). BEST BET: Lugo/Singer.
Texas at Minnesota (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
The World Champion Rangers have been a big disappointment at 24-27, and they enter Target Field having dropped 8 of their last 10 (-$775). The Twins took 5 of 7 from Texas in 2023 (+$430), but they’ve dropped 7 of their last 9 (-$635) while their offense flounders (2.8 runs per game over that stretch). Both are still viable contenders, but neither appeals to us at the moment. BEST BET: None.
Cleveland at L.A. Angels (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
The Guardians are the hottest team in MLB (9-1, +$820 last 10 days), as they continue to excel on the mound (3.28 team ERA, 3rd best in the AL). Tanner Bibee has led Cleveland to victories in 9 of his 10 starts (+$820) and he’s posted an 0.73 ERA in his last two outings. Ben Lively checks in with a 2.84 ERA in his seven appearances. The Angels are only 6-16 at Anaheim (-$840) and 13-28 vs. right-handers in 2024 (-$1105). BEST BET: Bibee/Lively.
Houston at Oakland (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
The Athletics are sinking hard and fast (2-8, -$645 last 10 days), just in time to take on the surging Astros, who swept them at Minute Maid Park in an earlier series (-$400). Houston remains a big money-loser overall in 2024 (-$1520), but the AL West is up for grabs, so look for the Astros to capitalize on this opportunity. Ronel Blanco has led the visitor to wins in 7 of his 8 starts (+$555, 2.08 ERA). We’ll lay the fat price when he goes. BEST BET: Blanco.
Seattle at Washington (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
The Nats have dropped 8 of their last 10 (-$455), but they’ve been a big money-maker for us over the past couple of seasons and deserve some consideration here. The Mariners are a light hitting club, averaging just 3.7 runs per game so far. They’ve lost money vs. right-handers outside of T-Mobile Park (-$340). They’ll have to contend with Trevor Williams, who has led Washington to wins in 7 of his 9 starts so far (+$915, 2.35 ERA). BEST BET: T. Williams.
Milwaukee at Boston (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
The Brewers have lost 6 of their last 10 (-$305) and their team pitching (3.97 ERA) is no match for Boston. The Red Sox (2.99 team ERA) have a trio of capable pitchers set to take turns at Fenway Park. However, Milwaukee has performed well vs. right-handers, particularly on the road (13-8, +$780) and they could pose a problem for the home team, given Boston’s losing record in this ballpark (-$550). We’ll hold off for now. BEST BET: None.
N.Y. Yankees at San Diego (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
The Yankees have the top rated offense in MLB (.772 OPS) and the best pitching as well (2.86 ERA). They own the best record in the AL (35-17) and they come into Petco Park having taken 8 of their last 10 (+$535). The Padres have a terrific road record, but they are only 10-16 at home (-$1250) and they average just 2.6 runs per game against left-handers. Following an injury plagued first season in New York Carlos Rodon has looked sharp in 2024 (+$260, 3.27 ERA). He should build on that success here. BEST BET: Rodon.
