Vol 54/43 Thru Wednesday, June 26, 2024
BASEBALL
BEGINNING THURSDAY, JUNE 20
San Francisco at St. Louis (3) *20th, 22nd, 23rd
*The first game of this series will be played at Rickwood Field in Birmingham, Alabama. The Cardinals are still not hitting much (.678 OPS, averaging just 3.9 runs per game) and they’ve been dreadful in day games (-$795 so far). They’ll play two afternoon contests at Busch Stadium against the formidable right-handed duo of Jordan Hicks (2.82 ERA) and Logan Webb (2.99). The Giants have been profitable in day games in 2024 (+$725) and they’ll no doubt be available at a decent price. BEST BET: Hicks/L. Webb.
Milwaukee at San Diego (4) 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The 1st place Brewers are racking up fat profits against right-handers (34-22, +$1325, averaging 5.2 runs per game) and they’ll face a trio of them when they visit Petco Park. The Padres are only 8-16 in night games at home (-$1270) and their pitching has been inconsistent at best (5.85 ERA among starters in the last 10 days). Adam Mazur has been a disaster in his three starts for San Diego (-$335, 7.82 ERA), so we’ll look for the visitor to draw first blood in this four game series. BEST BET: Brewers vs. Mazur.
BEGINNING FRIDAY, JUNE 21
N.Y. Mets at Chicago Cubs (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Mets are roaring their way back into wild-card contention (8-2, +$625 last 10 days, averaging 6.3 runs per game at the plate). They have been profitable against right-handers in road games (+$635) and they have a couple of capable southpaws set to take the mound at Wrigley Field (Chicago only 5-10, -$560 against left-handers in 2024). We’ll avoid sizzling hot Shota Imanaga in the series opener, but David Peterson (+$225, 3.97) looks like a good choice when he takes on Javier Assad in Sunday’s finale. BEST BET: Peterson.
Arizona at Philadelphia (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Diamondbacks have crept back to almost .500 (7-3, +$260 last 10 days) as they get set to visit Citizens Bank. They’ve been a money-maker in day games (+$515) and they’ve averaged 5.6 runs per game vs. southpaws. They’ll take on lefty Christopher Sanchez in Sunday’s afternoon finale. The high-flying Phillies have lost 6 of their last 10 (-$345) yet they’ll be heavily favored throughout. BEST BET: Diamondbacks vs. left-handers in day games.
Washington at Colorado (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
It’s impossible not to love the Nationals, who racked up a massive profit in 2023 despite losing 91 games (+$2705) and who are once again among MLB’s top money-making clubs (36-38, +$1635). They enter Coors Field having won 7 of their last 10 (+$465). The 26-49 Rockies look as pitiful as ever (5.60 team ERA, worst in the majors) and they’ll have to contend with lefties DJ Herz (1.74 ERA last two starts) and Mitchell Parker (+$690, 3.06 ERA), who should be available at reasonable prices. BEST BET: Herz/Parker.
Chicago W. Sox at Detroit (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The 20-56 White Sox were swept the first time they took on the Tigers in 2024 (-$300) and they continue to flounder 28 games back in the AL Central. They are only 7-31 in road games (-$1880), while ranking dead last in the AL in pitching (4.82 ERA) and hitting as well (.626 OPS, 3.1 runs per game on offense). Unfortunately, Detroit is slumping (2-7, -$535 last 10 days) so we’re inclined to avoid the high prices this weekend at Comerica. BEST BET: None.
Toronto at Cleveland (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Guardians are maintaining a healthy lead in the AL Central, and they come into this series with a stellar 23-9 record at Progressive Field (+$960). The Blue Jays have dropped 6 of their last 6 (-$410) and they continue to struggle at the plate, averaging just 3.3 runs per game in those contests. We’ll steer clear of Toronto’s Jose Berrios (+$615, 3.13 ERA), but hard luck lefty Yusei Kikuchi (-$775) makes a tempting target. BEST BET: Guardians vs. Kikuchi.
Kansas City at Texas (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Royals have lost 7 of their last 10 (-$340) and they’ve not had much success outside of Kaufman Stadium, going 17-20 in road games. However, there’s not much enthusiasm for the defending champs (Texas 3-6, -$205 last 10 days, averaging just 3.1 runs per game), who have lost a fortune already playing here at Arlington (-$810). Both sides have some capable arms set to appear, but it’s hard to see much of an edge for either side. BEST BET: None.
Baltimore at Houston (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Orioles have closed to within half a game of 1st place in the AL East after taking 2 out of 3 from the Yankees in the Bronx (7-3, +$485 last 10 days). They now own the best team ERA in the American League (3.13) and they come into Minute Maid Park with a 24-11 record in road games (+$1055). The Astros remain well below .500 and eight games back in the AL West (-$1750). Hard to pass up the hot visiting team. BEST BET: Orioles in all games.
Minnesota at Oakland (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Twins have prevailed in 7 of their last 10 (+$200, averaging 6.7 runs per game on offense), and they managed a clean sweep of Oakland when they squared off at Target Field (+$400). The hapless Athletics have lost 8 of their last 10 (-$510) and they are only 20-39 vs. right-handers in 2024 (-$1015). Minnesota’s pitching has been a disappointment, but their all-righty rotation should still take at least 2 of 3 at the Coliseum. BEST BET: Twins in all games.
Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Rays have the 3rd worst ERA in the AL (4.44) and they own a 24-32 record against right-handers (-$1400), averaging just 3.6 runs per game in those contests. The Pirates are just a couple of games below .500 and they are within striking distance of getting to the top of the NL Central. Paul Skenes has looked spectacular since breaking onto the scene (+$455, 2.29 ERA in seven outings). He should make short work for the fading visitor. BEST BET: Skenes.
Atlanta at N.Y. Yankees (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Braves have turned out to a bad road team in 2024 (-$890) and they’ll be taking on one of the top pitching clubs in MLB (NY 3.18 team ERA). The Yankees are 19-6 vs. right-handers in the Bronx (+$1150, 5.3 runs per game) so we’ll go against Charlie Morton (-$530 in 13 appearances) on Saturday evening. On the other hand, New York has lost money vs. lefties at home (-$805) and Atlanta has a dangerous duo (Sale & Fried) set to take turns. Avoid the Yankees when they appear. BEST BET: Yankees vs. right-handers.
Seattle at Miami (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Mariners (7-3, +$395 last 10 days) bring an eight game lead in the AL West into Miami to face the NL’s worst club (Marlins 25-49, -$1805 overall). Seattle has a 14-9 record against left-handers (+$495) and they’ll face a trio of southpaws this weekend. Miami has a .636 OPS, worst in the NL, and they’ll be facing a formidable Seattle mound corps (3.03 ERA last 10 days). The Marlins will be lucky to avoid a sweep. BEST BET: Mariners vs. left-handers.
Boston at Cincinnati (3) 21st, 22nd, 23rd
The Red Sox have moved five games over .500 (8-2, +$755 last 10 days) as they continue to benefit from their high quality pitching staff (3.45 ERA, 3rd best in the American League). They have been very profitable outside of Fenway Park (+$930) while the Reds have been slumping, dropping 6 of their last 9 (-$245, 2.6 runs per game). We’ll avoid Andrew Abbott (Boston only 4.0 runs per game vs. lefties) but Frankie Montas (-$495) and Carson Spiers (6.00 ERA in his only start) don’t give us much cause for concern. BEST BET: Red Sox vs. right-handers.
L.A. Angels at L.A. Dodgers (3) 21st, 22nd
The Dodgers tend to be overpriced, but they own a 20-7 record against left-handers (+$425), averaging 5.0 runs per game in those contests. They’ll get to face Patrick Sandoval in the opener, who owns a bloated 5.36 ERA in his 15 starts. He’ll face Landon Knack, who’ll be making his fifth start after compiling a 2.61 ERA in his first four, in the series opener. BEST BET: Dodgers vs. left-handers.
