BEGINNING FRIDAY APRIL 22
Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Cubs took to out of 3 at PNC Park last weekend, barely squeaking out a couple victory against a Pittsburgh team they dominated in 2004 (13-5, +$535). The pitching has been very average thus far (4.22 team ERA, 8th in the NL), but you can be sure they?ll be heavily favored here at Wrigley Field nonetheless. Josh Fogg checks in with a 2.03 ERA in his first two starts, and will take the mound this weekend. Given Chicago?s heavy losses vs. righthanders at home last year (-$2660) and the anticipated high price, we?ll take a shot when he is in the hill. BEST BET: Fogg.
Washington at N.Y. Mets (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Nationals have been swinging some potent bats (.279 team BA, with just under 5 runs per game), but the starting pitching has been sub-par (5.09 ERA, 4th worst in the league) and the euphoria of opening weekend at RFK will be fading by the time this series gets underway. The Mets starters? have looked very sharp since losing their first 5 straight, especially Kazuhisa Ishii, who locked up in the scoreless duel with Rogers Clemens in his last start. Washington can?t hit lefties (only 3.5 runs per game so far) so we?ll go with New York?s newly acquired southpaw. BEST BET: Ishii.
Philadelphia at Atlanta (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Phillies bounced back from a Friday night drubbing to take 2 out of 3 from this team last weekend, thanks to a couple of 2-1 squeakers. Now the scene shifts to Turner Field, and given Phillies successes on the road last year (+$725), we like their chances. The Braves rank near the bottom in the NL in team BA (.247) and are losing money vs. righthanders in the early going (-$370). We like Brett Myers, who has been unhittable in his first three starts (0.44 ERA). He?ll probably be a slight underdog here. BEST BET: Myers
Cincinnati at Florida (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
Dontrelle Willis has been unbelievable in his first two starts of the season, registering complete game shutouts in both (+$200). Nevertheless, the Reds will be an outstanding value play when he takes the mound this weekend. The price will no doubt be wildly inflated, and keep in mind that Cincinnati, who have yet to lose to a lefthander this year (4-0, +$490 with 6.0 runs per game) were an impressive +$1050 vs. southpaws in 2004, with 5.7 runs per game).
The Marlins lost a bundle at Pro Player Park last year against righthanders (-$1625) and Eric Milton, the visitors only lefty, is not expected to see action. BEST BET: Reds vs. Willis.
Houston at St. Louis (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
These teams split a pair in Houston to open the new season, but it?s hard to consider going with the Cardinals when you look at how poorly they?ve performed statistically (.220 team BA, worst in the league . . . 4.35 team ERA). The Astros have been struggling somewhat offensively, but their pitching has been outstanding (3.27 team ERA, 3rd best in the majors), and they?ve got a solid pair in Clemens (0.64) and Backe (3.97) who are slated to see action on Saturday & Sunday. The Cards lost money in day games at Busch Stadium last year (-$410) and are doing it again in 2005 (1--3, -$400). BEST BET: Clemens & Backe in day games.
L.A. Dodgers at Colorado (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Dodgers have the best record in baseball (9-2, +$750) so it?s hard to see a bunch of scrubs like the Rockies getting the best of them. Colorado?s team ERA is always inflated, but two weeks into the new season it stands at an appalling 7.84. The Dodgers were terrific as a visitor last year (+$885) and they?ve won 4 of their first 6 in 2005 (+$210). Top play looks to be lefthander Odalis Perez, given his fast start (+$210, 1.59) and given the fact that Colorado has yet to defeat a lefthander (-$520). BEST BET: Od. Perez.
San Diego at Arizona (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Diamondbacks may not be playoff bound, but they have improved dramatically over last season?s 51-111 (-$6085) disaster. Brandon Webb is the best thing Arizona has going (+$200, 2.70 ERA) and while in the long run we look for the Padres to compete in the NL West, they?ll have a tough time when he?s on the hill. Jake Peavy is exhibiting the form that made him on of baseball?s most effective hurlers in 2004 (+$200, 1.32 ERA). We?ll use both of these pitchers if we can, assuming they don?t hook up against one another. BEST BET: Peavy & Webb unless they are facing each other.
Milwaukee at San Francisco (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Brewers are unlikely to have their two most effective starters, Ben Sheets and Doug Davis, available, and that might make it tough for the visiting underdog. The Giants are tops in the NL offensively, and they?ve averaged 6 runs per game vs. lefthanders, following up on last year?s 19-7 (+$840) record vs. southpaws at SBC Park. The prices might be a bit on the high side, but San Francisco still looks like a solid value. BEST BET: Giants vs. lefthanders.
Minnesota at Detroit (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Twins have jumped to an early lead in the AL Central, at least in part thanks to a sweep of these Tigers at the Metrodome last week. They manhandled this team in head to head play last year (12-7, +$195) and they?ve got a huge edge in pitching (3.48 ERA vs. 4.31 for Detroit). They were one of baseball?s most profitable road teams in 2004 (+$1170) and we?re looking for that trend is continue. We?ll get them at very reasonable prices here at Comerica, and will back them throughout. BEST BET: Twins in all games.
Texas at N.Y. Yankees (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Yankees are off to a truly dismal start, near the bottom of the American League in both hitting (.258 team BA) and pitching (5.50 ERA). They are only 2-7 (-$795) vs. righthanders, averaging a mere 3.9 runs per game in those contests. Eventually they will start winning, but we should look for opportunities to take big prices with opposing teams. particularly here at Yankee Stadium. Texas went 17-12 on the road vs. lefties last year (+$1035) and they?ve gone 2-0 (+$275) in that situation already this year. We?ll jump at the opportunity to take this team against Randy Johnson and his inflated (4.74) ERA. BEST BET: Rangers vs. R. Johnson.
Baltimore at Toronto (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
Lee Mazzilli has the Orioles playing excellent baseball (8-4, +$480), as they lead the league in team BA (.296). The Blue Jays are another big surprise this April (8-5, +$430), thanks to one of the top rated pitching staff in the AL (3.58 ERA). That pitching edge is what causes us to lean to the home team in this matchup. Ponson (12.47) and Cabrera (9.72) have not been much help to the Orioles, and figure to be overmatched here at Skydome. We?ll stick with Toronto when they take their turn. BEST BET: Blue Jays vs. Ponson & Cabrera.
Boston at Tampa Bay (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Devil Rays were no match for this team in 2004, losing 14 of 19 meetings, and they were dispatched rather handily in a three game sweep at Fenway last weekend, scoring a total of three runs to Boston?s 22. Time Wakefield (+$365, 1.37 ERA) baffled them in the last game of that series and should repeat that feat here at Tropicana Field. No one on the Tampa Bay staff (5.18 team ERA) concerns us at this time. BEST BET: Wakefield.
Chicago W. Sox at Kansas City (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The White Sox made short work of the hapless Royals in 2004 (13-6, +$350) and since they?ll be seeing a steady diet of righthanders this weekend at Kaufman Stadium, they?ll be tough to pass up (Chisox 7-12, +$510 in that situation this year . . . +$1725 in ?04). Look for them to keep pace with the Twins in the early days of the Central Division pennant chase. BEST BET: White Sox in all games.
Oakland at L.A. Angels (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Athletics took 2 out of 3 at the Coliseum last weekend, and despite the off season losses of Mulder and Hudson, they look like they?ve got the type of pitching that will make them competitive in the AL West once again (3.62 ERA, 4th best in the league). The Angels look very vulnerable (4.50 ERA, .241 team BA) and don?t lose sight of how ineffective they were against righthanders in this ballpark last year (-$955). We?ll try our luck with a couple of hurlers who have impressed us and are expected to take turns this weekend. BEST BET: Blanton/Haren.
Cleveland at Seattle (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The M?s are averaging 5.0 runs per game and they?ve got the pitching staff with the 2nd lowest ERA in the AL (3.57). Despite a dreadful 2004 they still made money against righthanders at Safeco Field (+$400). The Tribe is only 1-4( -$315) against lefthanders so far, with only 2.2 runs per game in those contests, the same weakness that plagued them in 2004 (-$1175 vs. southpaws). Jaime Moyer is looking very sharp (+$250) and is a solid value as long as he isn?t facing a Cleveland southpaw. BEST BET: Moyer vs. a righthander.
Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Cubs took to out of 3 at PNC Park last weekend, barely squeaking out a couple victory against a Pittsburgh team they dominated in 2004 (13-5, +$535). The pitching has been very average thus far (4.22 team ERA, 8th in the NL), but you can be sure they?ll be heavily favored here at Wrigley Field nonetheless. Josh Fogg checks in with a 2.03 ERA in his first two starts, and will take the mound this weekend. Given Chicago?s heavy losses vs. righthanders at home last year (-$2660) and the anticipated high price, we?ll take a shot when he is in the hill. BEST BET: Fogg.
Washington at N.Y. Mets (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Nationals have been swinging some potent bats (.279 team BA, with just under 5 runs per game), but the starting pitching has been sub-par (5.09 ERA, 4th worst in the league) and the euphoria of opening weekend at RFK will be fading by the time this series gets underway. The Mets starters? have looked very sharp since losing their first 5 straight, especially Kazuhisa Ishii, who locked up in the scoreless duel with Rogers Clemens in his last start. Washington can?t hit lefties (only 3.5 runs per game so far) so we?ll go with New York?s newly acquired southpaw. BEST BET: Ishii.
Philadelphia at Atlanta (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Phillies bounced back from a Friday night drubbing to take 2 out of 3 from this team last weekend, thanks to a couple of 2-1 squeakers. Now the scene shifts to Turner Field, and given Phillies successes on the road last year (+$725), we like their chances. The Braves rank near the bottom in the NL in team BA (.247) and are losing money vs. righthanders in the early going (-$370). We like Brett Myers, who has been unhittable in his first three starts (0.44 ERA). He?ll probably be a slight underdog here. BEST BET: Myers
Cincinnati at Florida (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
Dontrelle Willis has been unbelievable in his first two starts of the season, registering complete game shutouts in both (+$200). Nevertheless, the Reds will be an outstanding value play when he takes the mound this weekend. The price will no doubt be wildly inflated, and keep in mind that Cincinnati, who have yet to lose to a lefthander this year (4-0, +$490 with 6.0 runs per game) were an impressive +$1050 vs. southpaws in 2004, with 5.7 runs per game).
The Marlins lost a bundle at Pro Player Park last year against righthanders (-$1625) and Eric Milton, the visitors only lefty, is not expected to see action. BEST BET: Reds vs. Willis.
Houston at St. Louis (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
These teams split a pair in Houston to open the new season, but it?s hard to consider going with the Cardinals when you look at how poorly they?ve performed statistically (.220 team BA, worst in the league . . . 4.35 team ERA). The Astros have been struggling somewhat offensively, but their pitching has been outstanding (3.27 team ERA, 3rd best in the majors), and they?ve got a solid pair in Clemens (0.64) and Backe (3.97) who are slated to see action on Saturday & Sunday. The Cards lost money in day games at Busch Stadium last year (-$410) and are doing it again in 2005 (1--3, -$400). BEST BET: Clemens & Backe in day games.
L.A. Dodgers at Colorado (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Dodgers have the best record in baseball (9-2, +$750) so it?s hard to see a bunch of scrubs like the Rockies getting the best of them. Colorado?s team ERA is always inflated, but two weeks into the new season it stands at an appalling 7.84. The Dodgers were terrific as a visitor last year (+$885) and they?ve won 4 of their first 6 in 2005 (+$210). Top play looks to be lefthander Odalis Perez, given his fast start (+$210, 1.59) and given the fact that Colorado has yet to defeat a lefthander (-$520). BEST BET: Od. Perez.
San Diego at Arizona (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Diamondbacks may not be playoff bound, but they have improved dramatically over last season?s 51-111 (-$6085) disaster. Brandon Webb is the best thing Arizona has going (+$200, 2.70 ERA) and while in the long run we look for the Padres to compete in the NL West, they?ll have a tough time when he?s on the hill. Jake Peavy is exhibiting the form that made him on of baseball?s most effective hurlers in 2004 (+$200, 1.32 ERA). We?ll use both of these pitchers if we can, assuming they don?t hook up against one another. BEST BET: Peavy & Webb unless they are facing each other.
Milwaukee at San Francisco (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Brewers are unlikely to have their two most effective starters, Ben Sheets and Doug Davis, available, and that might make it tough for the visiting underdog. The Giants are tops in the NL offensively, and they?ve averaged 6 runs per game vs. lefthanders, following up on last year?s 19-7 (+$840) record vs. southpaws at SBC Park. The prices might be a bit on the high side, but San Francisco still looks like a solid value. BEST BET: Giants vs. lefthanders.
Minnesota at Detroit (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Twins have jumped to an early lead in the AL Central, at least in part thanks to a sweep of these Tigers at the Metrodome last week. They manhandled this team in head to head play last year (12-7, +$195) and they?ve got a huge edge in pitching (3.48 ERA vs. 4.31 for Detroit). They were one of baseball?s most profitable road teams in 2004 (+$1170) and we?re looking for that trend is continue. We?ll get them at very reasonable prices here at Comerica, and will back them throughout. BEST BET: Twins in all games.
Texas at N.Y. Yankees (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Yankees are off to a truly dismal start, near the bottom of the American League in both hitting (.258 team BA) and pitching (5.50 ERA). They are only 2-7 (-$795) vs. righthanders, averaging a mere 3.9 runs per game in those contests. Eventually they will start winning, but we should look for opportunities to take big prices with opposing teams. particularly here at Yankee Stadium. Texas went 17-12 on the road vs. lefties last year (+$1035) and they?ve gone 2-0 (+$275) in that situation already this year. We?ll jump at the opportunity to take this team against Randy Johnson and his inflated (4.74) ERA. BEST BET: Rangers vs. R. Johnson.
Baltimore at Toronto (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
Lee Mazzilli has the Orioles playing excellent baseball (8-4, +$480), as they lead the league in team BA (.296). The Blue Jays are another big surprise this April (8-5, +$430), thanks to one of the top rated pitching staff in the AL (3.58 ERA). That pitching edge is what causes us to lean to the home team in this matchup. Ponson (12.47) and Cabrera (9.72) have not been much help to the Orioles, and figure to be overmatched here at Skydome. We?ll stick with Toronto when they take their turn. BEST BET: Blue Jays vs. Ponson & Cabrera.
Boston at Tampa Bay (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Devil Rays were no match for this team in 2004, losing 14 of 19 meetings, and they were dispatched rather handily in a three game sweep at Fenway last weekend, scoring a total of three runs to Boston?s 22. Time Wakefield (+$365, 1.37 ERA) baffled them in the last game of that series and should repeat that feat here at Tropicana Field. No one on the Tampa Bay staff (5.18 team ERA) concerns us at this time. BEST BET: Wakefield.
Chicago W. Sox at Kansas City (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The White Sox made short work of the hapless Royals in 2004 (13-6, +$350) and since they?ll be seeing a steady diet of righthanders this weekend at Kaufman Stadium, they?ll be tough to pass up (Chisox 7-12, +$510 in that situation this year . . . +$1725 in ?04). Look for them to keep pace with the Twins in the early days of the Central Division pennant chase. BEST BET: White Sox in all games.
Oakland at L.A. Angels (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Athletics took 2 out of 3 at the Coliseum last weekend, and despite the off season losses of Mulder and Hudson, they look like they?ve got the type of pitching that will make them competitive in the AL West once again (3.62 ERA, 4th best in the league). The Angels look very vulnerable (4.50 ERA, .241 team BA) and don?t lose sight of how ineffective they were against righthanders in this ballpark last year (-$955). We?ll try our luck with a couple of hurlers who have impressed us and are expected to take turns this weekend. BEST BET: Blanton/Haren.
Cleveland at Seattle (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The M?s are averaging 5.0 runs per game and they?ve got the pitching staff with the 2nd lowest ERA in the AL (3.57). Despite a dreadful 2004 they still made money against righthanders at Safeco Field (+$400). The Tribe is only 1-4( -$315) against lefthanders so far, with only 2.2 runs per game in those contests, the same weakness that plagued them in 2004 (-$1175 vs. southpaws). Jaime Moyer is looking very sharp (+$250) and is a solid value as long as he isn?t facing a Cleveland southpaw. BEST BET: Moyer vs. a righthander.
