BEGINNING THURSDAY JULY 31
Colorado at Florida (4) 31st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd
They may still be well below .500, but the Rockies have been coming on strong since the All-Star break (9-1, +$825 last 10 days with 7.6 runs per game). They?ve even been winning on the road, and with a 3-1 record vs. the Marlins in head to head play (+$120), they could have a good weekend here at Dolphin Stadium. Florida has over-performed, when you consider their stats (4.58 team ERA, .251 team BA, near the bottom of the NL), but they?ve had success at home vs. righties, so caution is advised. We?ll try our luck with the Colorado lefties, since the home team averages only 4.2 runs per game vs. southpaws. BEST BET: Lefthanders vs. the Marlins.
Arizona at L.A. Dodgers (4) 31st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd
These teams are battling it out atop the division that on one wants to win. The Dodgers have closed the gap, but Arizona has looked pretty good since the All-Star break (6-3, +$285 with 6.0 runs per game and a 2.29 ERA among starters), and they also hold a 5-3 (+$185) edge in head to head play vs. LA. The Dodgers have cobbled together a solid mound corps, but it?s hard to pass up a quality pitcher like Brandon Webb, who had led the D?Backs to victories in 15 of his 22 starts (+$575, 3.27 ERA). We?ll get on board when he takes his turn at Chavez Ravine. BEST BET: Webb.
L.A. Angels at N.Y. Yankees (4) 31st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd
The Yankees are the hottest team in baseball right now (8-1, +$735 with 5.7 runs per game and a 2.60 ERA among starters since the break), but the Angels historically have given them a great deal of trouble, and they own the best record in baseball, including a 33-19 mark in their road games (+$1435). Otherwise, these teams appear evenly matched statistically (NY 3.92 ERA, .270 team BA . . . LA 3.87 ERA, .261 BA), so this series is up for grabs. We?ll check specific matchups on game day before jumping in. BEST BET: None.
BEGINNING FRIDAY AUGUST 1
Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (3) 1st, 2nd, 3rd
The Cubs are in a dogfight all of a sudden. The Brewers are on fire and Chicago has not looked sharp since the All-Star break (4-6, -$480 with only 4.2 runs per game). But the Pirates might be just what the doctor ordered. The home team has dominated the Bucs in head to head play (9-3, +$400) and Pittsburgh has the highest team ERA in either league (5.28). They are at their worst on the road vs. lefthanders (only 3-12, -$775) so take a shot with Ted Lilly (2.77 ERA last two starts) regardless of price. BEST BET: Lilly.
Cincinnati at Washington (3) 1st, 2nd, 3rd
The Reds had a rough weekend at Great American Ballpark when they were thrashed by the red hot Rockies, but they are a perfect 4-0 vs. the Nationals (+$400). Washington has been performing as you would expect baseball?s most inept franchise to perform (-$1910 overall) and their meager run production vs. righthanders (3.4 per game) is bad news when taking on Cincinnati?s all-righty rotation. We?d be surprised if the visitor failed to take at least 2 out of 3. BEST BET: Reds in all games.
Milwaukee at Atlanta (3) 1st, 2nd, 3rd
The trade for C.C. Sabathia has clearly invigorated this franchise, which for decades has languished in mediocrity. They?ve been one of the hottest teams in baseball ever since (8-2, +$540 last 10 days), led by their new ace lefthander (4-0, +$400 with a 1.36 ERA since joining the team). The Braves have decent stats, but it hasn?t translated into many wins, and their pathetic 14-21 record against lefthanders (-$1420 with only 4.1 runs per game) is going to hurt them when the big southpaw in on the hill. BEST BET: Sabathia.
N.Y. Mets at Houston (3) 1st, 2nd, 3rd
The Mets have latched on to first place in the NL East, but they?ll need to put together a good road trip to hold off their division rivals. The Astros, with one of the worst pitching staffs in the league (4.58 ERA), make an inviting target. Johan Santana is in his usual second half groove (2.93 ERA overall) and will make an appearance here at Minute Maid Park over the weekend. Take a shot with the visitor when he goes. BEST BET: J. Santana.
Philadelphia at St. Louis (3) 1st, 2nd, 3rd
Both these teams are muddling along at the moment, but both remain legitimate playoff contenders, so this shapes up as an exciting series. The Phillies will have a tough time vs. this rotation, given their disappointing showing vs. righthanders this year (-$880). when you contrast this performance to the Cardinals 38-30 mark vs. righties (+$825), it?s very clear how we want to approach the series. BEST BET: Cardinals when righty meets righty.
San Francisco at San Diego (3) 1st, 2nd, 3rd
Neither of these teams has done much to distinguish itself, as they battle one another to stay out of the NL West basement. The Padres have been an enormous disappointment, in that they were expected to contend for a division title (41-65, -$2780 overall). They?ve lost money in all settings, while the Giants have actually turned a profit in night games on the road (+$545). We?ll avoid staff ace Jake Peavy (2.67 ERA), but none of the other SD starters gives us cause for concern. BEST BET: Giants in night games unless opposed by Peavy.
Oakland at Boston (3) 1st, 2nd, 3rd
The Red Sox have faded a bit since the second half got underway, but their record here at Fenway Park remains spectacular (37-13, +$1685) and they should handle the beleaguered Athletics without much difficulty. Oakland was no doubt demoralized when so much top talent was traded away, and the result has been a 2-7 (-$575) performance since that time. They?ve been most ineffective lefthanders on the road (4-12, -$660) so take a shot when Jon Lester (+$715, 3.17 ERA in 22 starts) takes his turn. BEST BET: Lester.
Detroit at Tampa Bay (3) 1st, 2nd, 3rd
We keep waiting for the Tigers to go on a tear and reclaim the top slot in the AL Central, but they never quite get there. This trip to Tropicana Field will be a true test, taking on a first place team with a solid 40-16 record at home (+$1955). Detroit has been successful vs. lefthanders this year (20-8, +$1055) so we?ll lay off staff ace Scott Kazmir. But Tampa Bay has an excellent group of righthanders in the starting rotation (3.78 team ERA,4th best in the league) and they should fare well vs. the Tigers, who are only 12-26 (-$1505) vs. righties on the road. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Tigers.
Toronto at Texas (3) 1st, 2nd, 3rd
The Rangers have been a profitable item in 2008 despite being saddled with the least effective mound corps in the AL (5.20 ERA). They rely on an explosive offense (.280 team BA, tops in the league) which they?ll need to get the best of Toronto?s very effective pitching staff (3.67 team ERA, 2nd lowest in the AL). Texas has been experimenting with a number of pitching options, including a few lefties, and while none has looked outstanding, they have a good chance against the Blue Jays, who are only 4-11 (-$730) on the road vs. southpaws. BEST BET: Lefthanders vs. the Blue Jays.
Chicago W. Sox at Kansas City (3) 1st, 2nd, 3rd
The White Sox are holding steady atop the AL Central, and they showed their resilience when they topped the Tigers in 2 out of 3 at Comerica last weekend. They?ve won 6 of 9 from the Royals already (+$185) and should have a good weekend at Kaufman Stadium. KC has been a disaster vs. righthanders (-$1035 with only 4.0 runs per game) and Chicago checks in with one of the better rotations in MLB (3.74 ERA). BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Royals.
Cleveland at Minnesota (3) 1st, 2nd, 3rd
This looks like another bad spot for the hapless Indians (-$2495 overall), taking on a Minnesota team that has already taken 8 of 12 in head to head play (+$455). The Tribe has amassed a pitiful 18-34 record outside of Progressive Field (-$1690) while Minnesota checks in with a stellar 34-19 (+$1505) mark here at the Metrodome. It appears Cliff Lee will miss this series, and he?s the only Cleveland starter who concerns us. The Indians will be fortunate to salvage a single victory this weekend. BEST BET: Twins in all games.
Baltimore at Seattle (3) 1st, 2nd, 3rd
The orioles have dominated the Mariners in 2008 (6-1, +$595 in head to head play so far) and it?s hard to even consider backing a Seattle team that has floundered in all settings (-$2730 overall). We?re not too keen on using Baltimore outside of Camden Yards (only 20-32, -$545) and since none of the starters in the Orioles? rotation is especially appealing (4.70 team ERA, 2nd worst in the AL), we?re inclined to steer clear of this one. BEST BET: None.
Colorado at Florida (4) 31st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd
They may still be well below .500, but the Rockies have been coming on strong since the All-Star break (9-1, +$825 last 10 days with 7.6 runs per game). They?ve even been winning on the road, and with a 3-1 record vs. the Marlins in head to head play (+$120), they could have a good weekend here at Dolphin Stadium. Florida has over-performed, when you consider their stats (4.58 team ERA, .251 team BA, near the bottom of the NL), but they?ve had success at home vs. righties, so caution is advised. We?ll try our luck with the Colorado lefties, since the home team averages only 4.2 runs per game vs. southpaws. BEST BET: Lefthanders vs. the Marlins.
Arizona at L.A. Dodgers (4) 31st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd
These teams are battling it out atop the division that on one wants to win. The Dodgers have closed the gap, but Arizona has looked pretty good since the All-Star break (6-3, +$285 with 6.0 runs per game and a 2.29 ERA among starters), and they also hold a 5-3 (+$185) edge in head to head play vs. LA. The Dodgers have cobbled together a solid mound corps, but it?s hard to pass up a quality pitcher like Brandon Webb, who had led the D?Backs to victories in 15 of his 22 starts (+$575, 3.27 ERA). We?ll get on board when he takes his turn at Chavez Ravine. BEST BET: Webb.
L.A. Angels at N.Y. Yankees (4) 31st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd
The Yankees are the hottest team in baseball right now (8-1, +$735 with 5.7 runs per game and a 2.60 ERA among starters since the break), but the Angels historically have given them a great deal of trouble, and they own the best record in baseball, including a 33-19 mark in their road games (+$1435). Otherwise, these teams appear evenly matched statistically (NY 3.92 ERA, .270 team BA . . . LA 3.87 ERA, .261 BA), so this series is up for grabs. We?ll check specific matchups on game day before jumping in. BEST BET: None.
BEGINNING FRIDAY AUGUST 1
Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (3) 1st, 2nd, 3rd
The Cubs are in a dogfight all of a sudden. The Brewers are on fire and Chicago has not looked sharp since the All-Star break (4-6, -$480 with only 4.2 runs per game). But the Pirates might be just what the doctor ordered. The home team has dominated the Bucs in head to head play (9-3, +$400) and Pittsburgh has the highest team ERA in either league (5.28). They are at their worst on the road vs. lefthanders (only 3-12, -$775) so take a shot with Ted Lilly (2.77 ERA last two starts) regardless of price. BEST BET: Lilly.
Cincinnati at Washington (3) 1st, 2nd, 3rd
The Reds had a rough weekend at Great American Ballpark when they were thrashed by the red hot Rockies, but they are a perfect 4-0 vs. the Nationals (+$400). Washington has been performing as you would expect baseball?s most inept franchise to perform (-$1910 overall) and their meager run production vs. righthanders (3.4 per game) is bad news when taking on Cincinnati?s all-righty rotation. We?d be surprised if the visitor failed to take at least 2 out of 3. BEST BET: Reds in all games.
Milwaukee at Atlanta (3) 1st, 2nd, 3rd
The trade for C.C. Sabathia has clearly invigorated this franchise, which for decades has languished in mediocrity. They?ve been one of the hottest teams in baseball ever since (8-2, +$540 last 10 days), led by their new ace lefthander (4-0, +$400 with a 1.36 ERA since joining the team). The Braves have decent stats, but it hasn?t translated into many wins, and their pathetic 14-21 record against lefthanders (-$1420 with only 4.1 runs per game) is going to hurt them when the big southpaw in on the hill. BEST BET: Sabathia.
N.Y. Mets at Houston (3) 1st, 2nd, 3rd
The Mets have latched on to first place in the NL East, but they?ll need to put together a good road trip to hold off their division rivals. The Astros, with one of the worst pitching staffs in the league (4.58 ERA), make an inviting target. Johan Santana is in his usual second half groove (2.93 ERA overall) and will make an appearance here at Minute Maid Park over the weekend. Take a shot with the visitor when he goes. BEST BET: J. Santana.
Philadelphia at St. Louis (3) 1st, 2nd, 3rd
Both these teams are muddling along at the moment, but both remain legitimate playoff contenders, so this shapes up as an exciting series. The Phillies will have a tough time vs. this rotation, given their disappointing showing vs. righthanders this year (-$880). when you contrast this performance to the Cardinals 38-30 mark vs. righties (+$825), it?s very clear how we want to approach the series. BEST BET: Cardinals when righty meets righty.
San Francisco at San Diego (3) 1st, 2nd, 3rd
Neither of these teams has done much to distinguish itself, as they battle one another to stay out of the NL West basement. The Padres have been an enormous disappointment, in that they were expected to contend for a division title (41-65, -$2780 overall). They?ve lost money in all settings, while the Giants have actually turned a profit in night games on the road (+$545). We?ll avoid staff ace Jake Peavy (2.67 ERA), but none of the other SD starters gives us cause for concern. BEST BET: Giants in night games unless opposed by Peavy.
Oakland at Boston (3) 1st, 2nd, 3rd
The Red Sox have faded a bit since the second half got underway, but their record here at Fenway Park remains spectacular (37-13, +$1685) and they should handle the beleaguered Athletics without much difficulty. Oakland was no doubt demoralized when so much top talent was traded away, and the result has been a 2-7 (-$575) performance since that time. They?ve been most ineffective lefthanders on the road (4-12, -$660) so take a shot when Jon Lester (+$715, 3.17 ERA in 22 starts) takes his turn. BEST BET: Lester.
Detroit at Tampa Bay (3) 1st, 2nd, 3rd
We keep waiting for the Tigers to go on a tear and reclaim the top slot in the AL Central, but they never quite get there. This trip to Tropicana Field will be a true test, taking on a first place team with a solid 40-16 record at home (+$1955). Detroit has been successful vs. lefthanders this year (20-8, +$1055) so we?ll lay off staff ace Scott Kazmir. But Tampa Bay has an excellent group of righthanders in the starting rotation (3.78 team ERA,4th best in the league) and they should fare well vs. the Tigers, who are only 12-26 (-$1505) vs. righties on the road. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Tigers.
Toronto at Texas (3) 1st, 2nd, 3rd
The Rangers have been a profitable item in 2008 despite being saddled with the least effective mound corps in the AL (5.20 ERA). They rely on an explosive offense (.280 team BA, tops in the league) which they?ll need to get the best of Toronto?s very effective pitching staff (3.67 team ERA, 2nd lowest in the AL). Texas has been experimenting with a number of pitching options, including a few lefties, and while none has looked outstanding, they have a good chance against the Blue Jays, who are only 4-11 (-$730) on the road vs. southpaws. BEST BET: Lefthanders vs. the Blue Jays.
Chicago W. Sox at Kansas City (3) 1st, 2nd, 3rd
The White Sox are holding steady atop the AL Central, and they showed their resilience when they topped the Tigers in 2 out of 3 at Comerica last weekend. They?ve won 6 of 9 from the Royals already (+$185) and should have a good weekend at Kaufman Stadium. KC has been a disaster vs. righthanders (-$1035 with only 4.0 runs per game) and Chicago checks in with one of the better rotations in MLB (3.74 ERA). BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Royals.
Cleveland at Minnesota (3) 1st, 2nd, 3rd
This looks like another bad spot for the hapless Indians (-$2495 overall), taking on a Minnesota team that has already taken 8 of 12 in head to head play (+$455). The Tribe has amassed a pitiful 18-34 record outside of Progressive Field (-$1690) while Minnesota checks in with a stellar 34-19 (+$1505) mark here at the Metrodome. It appears Cliff Lee will miss this series, and he?s the only Cleveland starter who concerns us. The Indians will be fortunate to salvage a single victory this weekend. BEST BET: Twins in all games.
Baltimore at Seattle (3) 1st, 2nd, 3rd
The orioles have dominated the Mariners in 2008 (6-1, +$595 in head to head play so far) and it?s hard to even consider backing a Seattle team that has floundered in all settings (-$2730 overall). We?re not too keen on using Baltimore outside of Camden Yards (only 20-32, -$545) and since none of the starters in the Orioles? rotation is especially appealing (4.70 team ERA, 2nd worst in the AL), we?re inclined to steer clear of this one. BEST BET: None.
