- Apr 1, 2011
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BEGINNING THURSDAY APRIL 21
Philadelphia at San Diego (4) 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Phillies are playing quite well in the early going (11-4, +$400 so far) and they come into Petco Park with a significant edge over the Padres. They took 5 of 7 from a quality San Diego team last year (+$205) and while the pitching has been comparable, the Phillies hold a big advantage at the plate (.298 team BA as opposed to .211 for SD). The Phillies excelled on the road last year (+$575) and they?re off to a 4-2 start as visitors in 2011 (+$165). The Padres lost money vs. righties in this ballpark (-$700) and the Phillies have some of the best in their rotation. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Padres.
Boston at L.A. Angels (4) 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Angels have been a hot team in recent days (7-2, +$500 in their past 10), thanks in large measure to their surprisingly effective pitching staff (2.72 team ERA, 3rd best in the AL). They would love to continue their wining ways vs. a struggling Boston that dominated them in head to head play last year (LA only 1-9, -$840 vs. the Sox). Boston lost it?s first six road games of 2011 (-$840) and their statistics are horrific (.230 team BA, 6.41 ERA). Jered Weaver (+$400, .076 ERA) and Danny Haren (+$165, 1.20) are in top form right now, and both are likely to see action. BEST BET: Jr. Weaver/Haren.
Oakland at Seattle (4) 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Mariners took 2 of 3 from the Athletics on Opening weekend, but Oakland is getting what they hoped for from their young mound corps (2.70 ERA, lowest in the majors), as the offense tries to get on track. We like their chances in the re-match. The A?s dominated this team in 2010 (13-6, +$605)and Seattle ranks at the bottom of the league in team BA (.214) and next to last in ERA (4.89). They?ve emerged once again as a huge money-burner (-$640 so far, -$3695 in 2010) so take a shot throughout with a visitor. If they can split you should at least break even. BEST BET: Athletics in all games.
BEGINNING FRIDAY APRIL 22
L.A. Dodgers at Chicago Cubs (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
Neither of these teams is doing anything positive at the moment and things might not change anytime soon. The Dodgers have been pitching poorly (4.98 team ERA, 3rd worst in the NL) and they?ve averaged a pitiful 2.3 runs per game vs. righthanders (-$445). They?ll get a steady diet of righties from the Chicago rotation, and we like the Cubs? chances vs. Ted Lilly (6.00 ERA in three starts), given the home team?s record vs. lefties (4-1, +$305, averaging 5.0 runs per game so far). BEST BET: Cubs vs. Lilly.
Washington at Pittsburgh (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
This was one of the few teams the Nationals had success against in 2010 (5-1, +$400) and their better than expected rotation might get the best of the light hitting Bucs. Washington has won 7 of is last 10 (+$605) and have a record that is impressive considering they?ve been playing some of the top teams in the league recently. We should see some attractive underdog prices here at PNC Park and we?ll be on board when we do. BEST BET: Nationals as underdogs.
Colorado at Florida (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
Both these teams are playing well, but the Rockies are the club that is tearing up the league at the moment (12-3, +$720 so far in 2011). They are averaging a healthy 5.7 runs per game, in contrast to Florida?s less imposing 3.9 per game. Josh Johnson remains the one true quality arm the Marlins can offer up, while Colorado boasts a number of hurlers who have jumped out of the gate. Esmil Rogers is coming off a pair of quality starts (+$210, 2.77 ERA) and is expected to see action this weekend. This is a Florida team that dropped a fortune vs. righties in 2010 (-$2255). BEST BET: E. Rogers.
Arizona at N.Y. Mets (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The lifeless Mets managed to halt a seven game slide when they eked one out against the Braves last Sunday. But they?ve been an unmitigated disaster for far in 2011, including a 1-6 (-$640) record here at CitiField. The Diamondbacks don?t have much going in the pitching department, but they did take 5 of 6 from New York in head to head play last year (+$505). They are swinging some productive bats (averaging 5.4 runs per game) and they are worth a look at what could be some inflated prices here at Flushing. BEST BET: Diamondbacks at +120 or better.
Houston at Milwaukee (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Brewers have been up and down following that ugly opening series sweep by the Reds (5-4, +$25 last 10 days) but their pitching looks very strong at the moment (3.05). With Zack Greinke?s return looming on the horizon, Milwaukee is poised to do some serious damage in the NL Central. The Astros are stumbling along, mired in their usual spring ineptitude (5-11, -$570) and they are averaging just 3.1 runs per game vs. righties in road games. Yovani Gallardo & Shaun Marcum are both expected to take turns at Miller Park, we?ll take a shot when they appear. BEST BET: Gallardo/Marcum.
Cincinnati at St. Louis (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Reds had a difficult time dealing with the Cardinals in 2010 (only 6-12, -$630) but they?ve quickly jumped to the head of the pack in the NL Central and we like their chances here at Busch Stadium. St. Louis has not been a winning proposition in this ballpark (-$440 with only 2.5 runs per game) and Cincinnati is pounding out an average of 6.1 runs per game. They were a consistent money-maker on the road last year (+$635), and their pitching has been decent. If the price is right we?ll take a shot with the visitor in this one. BEST BET: Reds at +120 or better.
Atlanta at San Francisco (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Giants may be looking up at Colorado in the standings, but they?ve climbed to 9-6 after an impressive hot streak (6-3, +$250) and appear poised for another run at post-season. The Braves are pitching well but the hits have been few and far between (.230 team BA). They were a disaster in the road in 2010 (-$1645) and haven?t fared much better this April (3-4, --$150). San Francisco had a 37-20 record vs. righthanders here at ATT Park last season (+$940) and they?ll be facing a steady stream of Atlanta righties this weekend. We?ll stick with the home team unless the Braves send a lefty to the mound. BEST BET: Giants vs. righthanders.
Chicago W. Sox at Detroit (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
Things are a bit upside down in the AL Central, with lightly regarded KC and Cleveland jumping out of the gate quickly, so there?s plenty of time for struggling clubs like the Tigers & White Sox to turn things around. Chicago lost money in head to head play vs. this team last year (-$355) but they have been hitting well (.273 team BA, 2nd best in the league) and their starters are beginning to round into form (3.22 ERA last 10 days). John Danks remains winless after three outings, but his ERA is excellent (3.15) and he should shut down a Detroit team that is averaging just 2.8 runs per games vs. lefthanders at this point. BEST BET: Danks.
N.Y. Yankees at Baltimore (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Orioles? 6-1 start is now a distant memory, as they dropped their 7th straight pushing them down to 6-8 with little likelihood of a significant reversal. They dropped a pair in the Bronx last week and could only secure 5 wins in 18 head to head contests with New York last year (-$205). The Yankees haven?t played many games on the road up to this point, but C.C. Sabathia has performed as a true ace in his first four starts (2.52 ERA). The O?s are averaging just 1.7 runs per game vs. lefties (only 3.4 per game all last year), so stick with the big Yankee southpaw at any price. BEST BET: Sabathia.
Tampa Bay at Toronto (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Rays have crept back up in the standings after a nice two game sweep at Fenway Park last week, but big problems remain. They lost money vs. righthanders in 2010 (-$705 overall) and we?re seeing that pattern again this season (-$445). The Blue Jays check in with a very respectable 3.37 team ERA and they dominated righties last year, including a 42-24 (+$1620) mark here at Rogers Centre. It?s early of course, but with Boston floundering and New York groping to cobble together a viable rotation, the door is opened for a run by Toronto. BEST BET: Blue Jays when righty meets righty.
Kansas City at Texas (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Rangers pounded the hapless Royals last season (7-2, +$385 in their nine meetings) and they are playing as well as any team in the AL right now (+$530). But the Royals are off to their best start in years (+$730), with the top rated offense in the league (.279 ERA, averaging close to 5.5 runs per game), so caution is advised. KC has a pair of hot lefties in Bruce Chen (+$350, 2.37) and Jeff Francis (3.00), both of whom are likely to be on the hill at Arlington. The Rangers averaged a disappointing 4.5 runs per game vs. southpaws in 2010. BEST BET: Chen/Francis.
Cleveland at Minnesota (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
Everything has been breaking in Cleveland?s favor up to this point, and their strong play shows no signs of letting up (8-2, +$735 last 10 days, averaging 4.8 runs per game with a 1.87 ERA among starters). That?s bad news for a struggling Minnesota team that checks in at 5-10 (-$485). Francisco Liriano has been a major disappointment in his first three starts (-$380 with a 9.42 ERA) and he?ll be in against an Indians? team that is 5-1 (+$510) vs. southpaws, averaging 7.3 runs per game in those contests. BEST BET: Indians vs. Liriano.
Philadelphia at San Diego (4) 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Phillies are playing quite well in the early going (11-4, +$400 so far) and they come into Petco Park with a significant edge over the Padres. They took 5 of 7 from a quality San Diego team last year (+$205) and while the pitching has been comparable, the Phillies hold a big advantage at the plate (.298 team BA as opposed to .211 for SD). The Phillies excelled on the road last year (+$575) and they?re off to a 4-2 start as visitors in 2011 (+$165). The Padres lost money vs. righties in this ballpark (-$700) and the Phillies have some of the best in their rotation. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Padres.
Boston at L.A. Angels (4) 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Angels have been a hot team in recent days (7-2, +$500 in their past 10), thanks in large measure to their surprisingly effective pitching staff (2.72 team ERA, 3rd best in the AL). They would love to continue their wining ways vs. a struggling Boston that dominated them in head to head play last year (LA only 1-9, -$840 vs. the Sox). Boston lost it?s first six road games of 2011 (-$840) and their statistics are horrific (.230 team BA, 6.41 ERA). Jered Weaver (+$400, .076 ERA) and Danny Haren (+$165, 1.20) are in top form right now, and both are likely to see action. BEST BET: Jr. Weaver/Haren.
Oakland at Seattle (4) 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Mariners took 2 of 3 from the Athletics on Opening weekend, but Oakland is getting what they hoped for from their young mound corps (2.70 ERA, lowest in the majors), as the offense tries to get on track. We like their chances in the re-match. The A?s dominated this team in 2010 (13-6, +$605)and Seattle ranks at the bottom of the league in team BA (.214) and next to last in ERA (4.89). They?ve emerged once again as a huge money-burner (-$640 so far, -$3695 in 2010) so take a shot throughout with a visitor. If they can split you should at least break even. BEST BET: Athletics in all games.
BEGINNING FRIDAY APRIL 22
L.A. Dodgers at Chicago Cubs (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
Neither of these teams is doing anything positive at the moment and things might not change anytime soon. The Dodgers have been pitching poorly (4.98 team ERA, 3rd worst in the NL) and they?ve averaged a pitiful 2.3 runs per game vs. righthanders (-$445). They?ll get a steady diet of righties from the Chicago rotation, and we like the Cubs? chances vs. Ted Lilly (6.00 ERA in three starts), given the home team?s record vs. lefties (4-1, +$305, averaging 5.0 runs per game so far). BEST BET: Cubs vs. Lilly.
Washington at Pittsburgh (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
This was one of the few teams the Nationals had success against in 2010 (5-1, +$400) and their better than expected rotation might get the best of the light hitting Bucs. Washington has won 7 of is last 10 (+$605) and have a record that is impressive considering they?ve been playing some of the top teams in the league recently. We should see some attractive underdog prices here at PNC Park and we?ll be on board when we do. BEST BET: Nationals as underdogs.
Colorado at Florida (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
Both these teams are playing well, but the Rockies are the club that is tearing up the league at the moment (12-3, +$720 so far in 2011). They are averaging a healthy 5.7 runs per game, in contrast to Florida?s less imposing 3.9 per game. Josh Johnson remains the one true quality arm the Marlins can offer up, while Colorado boasts a number of hurlers who have jumped out of the gate. Esmil Rogers is coming off a pair of quality starts (+$210, 2.77 ERA) and is expected to see action this weekend. This is a Florida team that dropped a fortune vs. righties in 2010 (-$2255). BEST BET: E. Rogers.
Arizona at N.Y. Mets (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The lifeless Mets managed to halt a seven game slide when they eked one out against the Braves last Sunday. But they?ve been an unmitigated disaster for far in 2011, including a 1-6 (-$640) record here at CitiField. The Diamondbacks don?t have much going in the pitching department, but they did take 5 of 6 from New York in head to head play last year (+$505). They are swinging some productive bats (averaging 5.4 runs per game) and they are worth a look at what could be some inflated prices here at Flushing. BEST BET: Diamondbacks at +120 or better.
Houston at Milwaukee (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Brewers have been up and down following that ugly opening series sweep by the Reds (5-4, +$25 last 10 days) but their pitching looks very strong at the moment (3.05). With Zack Greinke?s return looming on the horizon, Milwaukee is poised to do some serious damage in the NL Central. The Astros are stumbling along, mired in their usual spring ineptitude (5-11, -$570) and they are averaging just 3.1 runs per game vs. righties in road games. Yovani Gallardo & Shaun Marcum are both expected to take turns at Miller Park, we?ll take a shot when they appear. BEST BET: Gallardo/Marcum.
Cincinnati at St. Louis (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Reds had a difficult time dealing with the Cardinals in 2010 (only 6-12, -$630) but they?ve quickly jumped to the head of the pack in the NL Central and we like their chances here at Busch Stadium. St. Louis has not been a winning proposition in this ballpark (-$440 with only 2.5 runs per game) and Cincinnati is pounding out an average of 6.1 runs per game. They were a consistent money-maker on the road last year (+$635), and their pitching has been decent. If the price is right we?ll take a shot with the visitor in this one. BEST BET: Reds at +120 or better.
Atlanta at San Francisco (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Giants may be looking up at Colorado in the standings, but they?ve climbed to 9-6 after an impressive hot streak (6-3, +$250) and appear poised for another run at post-season. The Braves are pitching well but the hits have been few and far between (.230 team BA). They were a disaster in the road in 2010 (-$1645) and haven?t fared much better this April (3-4, --$150). San Francisco had a 37-20 record vs. righthanders here at ATT Park last season (+$940) and they?ll be facing a steady stream of Atlanta righties this weekend. We?ll stick with the home team unless the Braves send a lefty to the mound. BEST BET: Giants vs. righthanders.
Chicago W. Sox at Detroit (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
Things are a bit upside down in the AL Central, with lightly regarded KC and Cleveland jumping out of the gate quickly, so there?s plenty of time for struggling clubs like the Tigers & White Sox to turn things around. Chicago lost money in head to head play vs. this team last year (-$355) but they have been hitting well (.273 team BA, 2nd best in the league) and their starters are beginning to round into form (3.22 ERA last 10 days). John Danks remains winless after three outings, but his ERA is excellent (3.15) and he should shut down a Detroit team that is averaging just 2.8 runs per games vs. lefthanders at this point. BEST BET: Danks.
N.Y. Yankees at Baltimore (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Orioles? 6-1 start is now a distant memory, as they dropped their 7th straight pushing them down to 6-8 with little likelihood of a significant reversal. They dropped a pair in the Bronx last week and could only secure 5 wins in 18 head to head contests with New York last year (-$205). The Yankees haven?t played many games on the road up to this point, but C.C. Sabathia has performed as a true ace in his first four starts (2.52 ERA). The O?s are averaging just 1.7 runs per game vs. lefties (only 3.4 per game all last year), so stick with the big Yankee southpaw at any price. BEST BET: Sabathia.
Tampa Bay at Toronto (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Rays have crept back up in the standings after a nice two game sweep at Fenway Park last week, but big problems remain. They lost money vs. righthanders in 2010 (-$705 overall) and we?re seeing that pattern again this season (-$445). The Blue Jays check in with a very respectable 3.37 team ERA and they dominated righties last year, including a 42-24 (+$1620) mark here at Rogers Centre. It?s early of course, but with Boston floundering and New York groping to cobble together a viable rotation, the door is opened for a run by Toronto. BEST BET: Blue Jays when righty meets righty.
Kansas City at Texas (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Rangers pounded the hapless Royals last season (7-2, +$385 in their nine meetings) and they are playing as well as any team in the AL right now (+$530). But the Royals are off to their best start in years (+$730), with the top rated offense in the league (.279 ERA, averaging close to 5.5 runs per game), so caution is advised. KC has a pair of hot lefties in Bruce Chen (+$350, 2.37) and Jeff Francis (3.00), both of whom are likely to be on the hill at Arlington. The Rangers averaged a disappointing 4.5 runs per game vs. southpaws in 2010. BEST BET: Chen/Francis.
Cleveland at Minnesota (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
Everything has been breaking in Cleveland?s favor up to this point, and their strong play shows no signs of letting up (8-2, +$735 last 10 days, averaging 4.8 runs per game with a 1.87 ERA among starters). That?s bad news for a struggling Minnesota team that checks in at 5-10 (-$485). Francisco Liriano has been a major disappointment in his first three starts (-$380 with a 9.42 ERA) and he?ll be in against an Indians? team that is 5-1 (+$510) vs. southpaws, averaging 7.3 runs per game in those contests. BEST BET: Indians vs. Liriano.
