- Apr 1, 2011
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BEGINNING THURSDAY JULY 7
Houston at Florida (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The Marlins were thought of as legitimate wildcard contenders in April & May, but the loss of Josh Johnson and a hideous month of June have derailed their chances, They?ve recovered to some extent (5-4, +$285 last 10 days with a 2.82 ERA among starters) and they are still way better than the Astros, who currently own the single worst record in MLB. Houston is only 16-43 vs. righthanders this season (-$2320), so if the price stays reasonable we?ll back the home team. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Astros at -135 or less.
Cincinnati at Milwaukee (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The Reds have dominated the Brewers in head to head play so far this year (7-2, +$555,) but Milwaukee has been unstoppable here at Miller Park (29-11, +$1410) so caution is advised. Cincy?s pitching ranks 13th in the NL (4.09 team ERA) and they?ve been a losing proposition overall (-$495). They do score runs off lefthanders (a healthy 5.8 per game) so we?ll stick with the Milwaukee righthanders this weekend. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Reds.
Arizona at St. Louis (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The D?backs don?t have impressive stats, but they?ve emerged as serious contenders nonetheless, and could be a solid value at Busch Stadium. They are 28-18 vs righthanders in night games (+$1120) and St. Louis has lost money at home (-$350). Arizona has gotten excellent work out of Daniel Hudson (+$480, 3.49) and Ian Kennedy (+$350), both of whom are likely to see action. BEST BET: D.Hudson & Kennedy vs. righthanders in night games.
Tampa Bay at N.Y. Yankees (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The Yankees have been on a tear as the All-Star break draws near (7-2, +$440 last 10 days, averaging 5.6 runs per game with a 2.32 ERA among starters). But Tampa Bay has been steadily creeping up in the standings. They are 10 games over .500 and only four games back in this very competitive division. They are one of the top road teams in baseball (+$1230) and they could make things difficult for the Yankees, who have lost a lot of money in night games against righthanders (-$1140). These teams have only played each other twice in 2011, so many more head to head matchups remain. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Yankees in night games.
Toronto at Cleveland (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The Blue Jays do very well against lefthanders, but the Indians have yet to start a southpaw in 2011, so Toronto will have to contend with an all-righty rotation. That?s bad news for a team that is only 27-36 (-$1030) in that situation. Cleveland is on top in the AL Central, and they?ve been dominant at Progressive Field (24-14, +$1030). We?ll stick with a pair of arms who have turned a profit (Carrasco, +$460 and Tomlin,+$400), both of whom are expected to take turns on the mound this weekend. BEST BET: C. Carrasco/Tomlin.
Baltimore at Boston (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
This won?t be an easy stop for the Orioles, as their pitching continues to flounder (8.26 ERA among starters last 10 days) while they slip deeper into the AL East. They?ve had a terrible time in night games on the road (only 6-16, -$805) and they?ll be in against the top run producing team in the league (.274 team BA). With the Yankees in first place and Tampa poised for a 2nd half run, the Red Sox cannot afford to let these patsies off the hook at Fenway. We?ll back them throughout. BEST BET: Red Sox in all games.
Detroit at Kansas City (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The Tigers are trading first place back & forth with the Indians as the season hits its midway point, so they?ll want to cash a few tickets when they head into Kaufman Stadium. KC the worst team in the American League once again (-$1060), and Detroit checks in with a 9-4 mark vs. lefties on the road (+$545). They?ll see one or two southpaws this weekend. BEST BET: Tigers vs. lefthanders.
Minnesota at Chicago W. Sox (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The defending division champs have had an ugly first half, but even at 10 games under .500 we?re not ready to write them off just yet. They?ve already swept the White Sox in the first four games they?ve played against each other (+$500) and if they can get ahead of Chicago they can make a run at the Tigers & Indians. The White Sox have lost money at US Cellular (-$790) and their lefties are vulnerable to a Minnesota team that has turned a nice profit vs. southpaws outside of Target Field (+$385). BEST BET: Twins vs. lefthanders.
Seattle at L.A. Angels (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The Mariners have had exceptionally good pitching this year (3.16 team ERA, 2nd best in the AL) and they?ve already taken 3 of 5 from the Angels (+$165). But LA has some excellent hurlers as well (3.37 team ERA) and Seattle has struggled to put runs across the plate (.226 team BA, lowest in the league). Seattle has a good record vs. righties in night games (+$665) while the Angels are big losers vs. righties at Anaheim (-$790). We?ll play this series accordingly. BEST BET: Mariners when righty meets righty in night games.
BEGINNING FRIDAY JULY 8
Atlanta at Philadelphia (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Phillies have several things going for them in this series, even though these two clubs own very similar statistics (Phillies 3.08 ERA, .245 BA . . . Braves 3.07 ERA, .237 BA). They check in here with a 12-2 record vs. righthanders in day games (+$990 with 5.6 runs per game) and two of these contests will take place in the afternoon. BEST BET: Phillies vs. righthanders in day games.
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Pirates have greatly exceeded expectations, and they can thank a previously unheralded pitching staff for their success (.345 team ERA, 5th best in the NL). Jeff Karstens is having a breakout year after knocking around for several seasons (+$420, 2.86 ERA in 14 starts) and veteran Kevin Correia is proving to be very profitable (+$945 so far). Both are likely to see action. BEST BET: Karstens/Correia.
Colorado at Washington (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
Like the Pirates, Washington has spent the first half silencing critics, showing vast improvement because of stellar work performed by their mound corps (3.53 ERA). They?ve turned a tidy profit in their own back yard (+$98) and they have a standout hurler in Jordan Zimmermann (2.63 ERA in 16 starts). Colorado has lost a fortune to righthanders up to this point (-$1590). BEST BET: Zimmermann.
San Diego at L.A. Dodgers (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Padres have moved up thanks to a hot run in recent days (6-3, +$310 last 10) and their pitching continues to look very sharp (3.29 team ERA). They?ve turned a nice profit on the road vs. righthanders (+$830) while the last place Dodgers are only 26-38 in that situation (-$1590). BEST BET: Padres when righty meets righty.
N.Y. Mets at San Francisco (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Giants took 2 of 3 at CitiField (+$120) and they?ve been very hot going into the final week before the All-Star break (8-3, +$540 in their last 11). But the Mets have been big money-makers outside of CitiField this year (+$1085) so we?re inclined to stay away from this one until game day. BEST BET: None.
Oakland at Texas (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The AL West is still up for grabs, and don?t count out the A?s, who are still only six games off the pace despite a dreadful first half (38-47, -$1320). The Rangers have already lost 4 of 6 to Oakland (-$200) and they are coming off a mediocre stretch (4-5, -$405 last10 days). They have a number of lefties on their staff, and Oakland has turned a small profit on the road vs. southpaws. We?ll take the price on the visitor when we can. BEST BET: Athletics vs. lefthanders.
Houston at Florida (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The Marlins were thought of as legitimate wildcard contenders in April & May, but the loss of Josh Johnson and a hideous month of June have derailed their chances, They?ve recovered to some extent (5-4, +$285 last 10 days with a 2.82 ERA among starters) and they are still way better than the Astros, who currently own the single worst record in MLB. Houston is only 16-43 vs. righthanders this season (-$2320), so if the price stays reasonable we?ll back the home team. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Astros at -135 or less.
Cincinnati at Milwaukee (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The Reds have dominated the Brewers in head to head play so far this year (7-2, +$555,) but Milwaukee has been unstoppable here at Miller Park (29-11, +$1410) so caution is advised. Cincy?s pitching ranks 13th in the NL (4.09 team ERA) and they?ve been a losing proposition overall (-$495). They do score runs off lefthanders (a healthy 5.8 per game) so we?ll stick with the Milwaukee righthanders this weekend. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Reds.
Arizona at St. Louis (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The D?backs don?t have impressive stats, but they?ve emerged as serious contenders nonetheless, and could be a solid value at Busch Stadium. They are 28-18 vs righthanders in night games (+$1120) and St. Louis has lost money at home (-$350). Arizona has gotten excellent work out of Daniel Hudson (+$480, 3.49) and Ian Kennedy (+$350), both of whom are likely to see action. BEST BET: D.Hudson & Kennedy vs. righthanders in night games.
Tampa Bay at N.Y. Yankees (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The Yankees have been on a tear as the All-Star break draws near (7-2, +$440 last 10 days, averaging 5.6 runs per game with a 2.32 ERA among starters). But Tampa Bay has been steadily creeping up in the standings. They are 10 games over .500 and only four games back in this very competitive division. They are one of the top road teams in baseball (+$1230) and they could make things difficult for the Yankees, who have lost a lot of money in night games against righthanders (-$1140). These teams have only played each other twice in 2011, so many more head to head matchups remain. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Yankees in night games.
Toronto at Cleveland (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The Blue Jays do very well against lefthanders, but the Indians have yet to start a southpaw in 2011, so Toronto will have to contend with an all-righty rotation. That?s bad news for a team that is only 27-36 (-$1030) in that situation. Cleveland is on top in the AL Central, and they?ve been dominant at Progressive Field (24-14, +$1030). We?ll stick with a pair of arms who have turned a profit (Carrasco, +$460 and Tomlin,+$400), both of whom are expected to take turns on the mound this weekend. BEST BET: C. Carrasco/Tomlin.
Baltimore at Boston (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
This won?t be an easy stop for the Orioles, as their pitching continues to flounder (8.26 ERA among starters last 10 days) while they slip deeper into the AL East. They?ve had a terrible time in night games on the road (only 6-16, -$805) and they?ll be in against the top run producing team in the league (.274 team BA). With the Yankees in first place and Tampa poised for a 2nd half run, the Red Sox cannot afford to let these patsies off the hook at Fenway. We?ll back them throughout. BEST BET: Red Sox in all games.
Detroit at Kansas City (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The Tigers are trading first place back & forth with the Indians as the season hits its midway point, so they?ll want to cash a few tickets when they head into Kaufman Stadium. KC the worst team in the American League once again (-$1060), and Detroit checks in with a 9-4 mark vs. lefties on the road (+$545). They?ll see one or two southpaws this weekend. BEST BET: Tigers vs. lefthanders.
Minnesota at Chicago W. Sox (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The defending division champs have had an ugly first half, but even at 10 games under .500 we?re not ready to write them off just yet. They?ve already swept the White Sox in the first four games they?ve played against each other (+$500) and if they can get ahead of Chicago they can make a run at the Tigers & Indians. The White Sox have lost money at US Cellular (-$790) and their lefties are vulnerable to a Minnesota team that has turned a nice profit vs. southpaws outside of Target Field (+$385). BEST BET: Twins vs. lefthanders.
Seattle at L.A. Angels (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
The Mariners have had exceptionally good pitching this year (3.16 team ERA, 2nd best in the AL) and they?ve already taken 3 of 5 from the Angels (+$165). But LA has some excellent hurlers as well (3.37 team ERA) and Seattle has struggled to put runs across the plate (.226 team BA, lowest in the league). Seattle has a good record vs. righties in night games (+$665) while the Angels are big losers vs. righties at Anaheim (-$790). We?ll play this series accordingly. BEST BET: Mariners when righty meets righty in night games.
BEGINNING FRIDAY JULY 8
Atlanta at Philadelphia (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Phillies have several things going for them in this series, even though these two clubs own very similar statistics (Phillies 3.08 ERA, .245 BA . . . Braves 3.07 ERA, .237 BA). They check in here with a 12-2 record vs. righthanders in day games (+$990 with 5.6 runs per game) and two of these contests will take place in the afternoon. BEST BET: Phillies vs. righthanders in day games.
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Pirates have greatly exceeded expectations, and they can thank a previously unheralded pitching staff for their success (.345 team ERA, 5th best in the NL). Jeff Karstens is having a breakout year after knocking around for several seasons (+$420, 2.86 ERA in 14 starts) and veteran Kevin Correia is proving to be very profitable (+$945 so far). Both are likely to see action. BEST BET: Karstens/Correia.
Colorado at Washington (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
Like the Pirates, Washington has spent the first half silencing critics, showing vast improvement because of stellar work performed by their mound corps (3.53 ERA). They?ve turned a tidy profit in their own back yard (+$98) and they have a standout hurler in Jordan Zimmermann (2.63 ERA in 16 starts). Colorado has lost a fortune to righthanders up to this point (-$1590). BEST BET: Zimmermann.
San Diego at L.A. Dodgers (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Padres have moved up thanks to a hot run in recent days (6-3, +$310 last 10) and their pitching continues to look very sharp (3.29 team ERA). They?ve turned a nice profit on the road vs. righthanders (+$830) while the last place Dodgers are only 26-38 in that situation (-$1590). BEST BET: Padres when righty meets righty.
N.Y. Mets at San Francisco (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Giants took 2 of 3 at CitiField (+$120) and they?ve been very hot going into the final week before the All-Star break (8-3, +$540 in their last 11). But the Mets have been big money-makers outside of CitiField this year (+$1085) so we?re inclined to stay away from this one until game day. BEST BET: None.
Oakland at Texas (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The AL West is still up for grabs, and don?t count out the A?s, who are still only six games off the pace despite a dreadful first half (38-47, -$1320). The Rangers have already lost 4 of 6 to Oakland (-$200) and they are coming off a mediocre stretch (4-5, -$405 last10 days). They have a number of lefties on their staff, and Oakland has turned a small profit on the road vs. southpaws. We?ll take the price on the visitor when we can. BEST BET: Athletics vs. lefthanders.
