WINNING POINTS TIPSHEET
NFL PLAYS SUMMARY
****BEST BETS
4* Chicago over *Green Bay by 7
3* Baltimore over *Cincinnati by 17
**PREFERRED PLAYS
Miami over *Buffalo by 10
Tampa Bay over *New Orleans by 11
CLOSE CALLS
New England over *Detroit by 1 (Thanksgiving)
*Dallas over Washington by 1 (Thanksgiving)
NFL TOTALS
**OVER: Atlanta at Minnesota Mike Vick and his teammates are getting better each week and will be operating against a horrible defense, while the Vikings are averaging close to 24 points their past five games.
UNDER: Pittsburgh at Jacksonville The Steelers lose their passing edge without Tommy Maddox, and six of the last seven games between these teams at Jacksonville has gone under the total.
UNDER: Tennessee at New York Giants Tricky winds this time of year at Giants Stadium could hurt the kickers in this matchup, which figures to have plenty of running and conservative play-calling.
DETAILED NCAA & NFL PLAYS ANALYSIS
****BEST BETS
Chicago over *Green Bay by 7
Brett Favre is going wild again. Thats not good if youre Green Bay. After playing under control for most of the season, Favre has cut loose with seven interceptions the past two games. The result has been Green Bay road losses to Minnesota and Tampa Bay. Now here come the Bears, who had not won since Week 2 until beating Detroit in overtime last week. Even with that morale boost, the Bears arent going anywhere this season, and they know it. Theyre just trying to survive an injury-plagued season. They have already lost 42 different players, when last year they had 31 injuries the entire season. The Bears also have had to play all their games on the road because of remodeling to Solider Field, their home stadium. Believe it or not, this actually will be their first game on grass all season. The Bears are more suited to grass because they like to run the ball, play for field position and rely on their defense. This is one of the rare games the Bears have been pointing to ever since the Packers embarrassed them on Monday night earlier this season with Favre passing for 359 yards and three touchdowns. This is the oldest rivalry in professional football, and the Bears have no excuse not to be pumped. Despite their 3-7 mark, they have come close their two previous games before Detroit, losing at the very end to New England and battling the Rams on Monday night. The Bears covered both of those contests. This shows that the Bears havent quit, which is crucial when backing a large underdog. While Green Bay has defeated the Bears nine straight times in Illinois, they are 2-3 ATS the past five in Green Bay. If the point spread creeps past 10, keep in mind, too, the Packers are 0-10-2 ATS when laying 11 or more points. Green Bays run defense could be impacted if huge nose tackle Gilbert Brown (check status) is unable to play. Hes their key run stuffer. CHICAGO 26-19.
***BEST
Baltimore over *Cincinnati by 17
You sure wont hear any guaranteed win predictions this week from Dick LeBeau or any of his Bengals. The Bengals arent playing an expansion team this week. They also are at home. Thats bad news for the Bengals. Its even worse news for their fans, which have to watch them. You would think grocery bags would be a hot selling concession item in Cincinnati. The Bengals have yet to win or cover in five home games this season. Baltimore lost 27 players from last year due to salary cap reasons. Star middle linebacker Ray Lewis has missed six of the past seven games, and their offense ranks near the bottom. Yet the Ravens have things the Bengals totally lack. They have character, mental toughness and good coaching. Those are all foreign concepts to the Bengals. Ravens coach Brian Billick has kept his team together. This is reflected in the standings, where the Ravens are just one game under .500 and in contention for the AFC North Division title. So unlike the Bengals, the Ravens still have playoff motivation. When the teams met just three weeks ago, the Ravens won, 38-27. It was the ninth time in 11 games the Ravens have won and covered against Cincinnati. Jon Kitna has been the Bengalsbest quarterback, which certainly doesnt say much for the state of the team. Yet it wouldnt be surprising if the Bengals cheap management orders LeBeau to play someone else at quarterback because they dont want to have pay performance bonuses that would be due to Kitna. Obviously if Lewis plays, its a huge boost for the Ravens, although Ed Hartwell and Bernardo Harris have been filling in well at linebacker. But the key here is the Ravens should have enough savvy and motivation to get a victory against a listless and gutless Bengals squad that does nothing but lose. The Bengals are 3-7 ATS as an underdog, and have yet to show much life. BALTIMORE 30-13.
**PREFERRED PLAYS
Miami over *Buffalo by 10
Ordinarily we would stay away from the Dolphins in a cold weather site like this. Miami is 0-2 this season in cold weather, losing to Green Bay on Monday night and to the New York Jets. But there is a clear class difference here. The Dolphins are a legitimate playoff team, while the Bills are perhaps a year away. The Dolphins have the better defense and rushing attack. Miami has held its last two foes, Baltimore and San Diego, to a combined 301 yards. The Bills are allowing an average of 33.6 points at home. Not only are the Bills among the most penalized teams in the NFL, but also their offense has regressed. After scoring at least 23 points during their first eight games, the Bills have scored just seven against New England, 16 vs. Kansas City and 13 to the New York Jets. None of those defenses has ever been referred to as being especially tough. They are all clearly inferior to Miamis defense. The Dolphins also know Drew Bledsoe well, having annually gone against him when he played for New England. Prior to this season, the Dolphins had won and covered their past four meetings against Buffalo. But the Bills took advantage of Ray Lucas first start at quarterback to pick off four passes in beating the Dolphins, 23-10, on Oct. 20. Lucas has since settled down to play better, and theres a chance the Dolphins could get back theuir starting quarterback Jay Fielder (check status). MIAMI 26-16.
Tampa Bay over *New Orleans by 11
A flashy offense, exciting game-breakers and a gaudy 7-4 record cant hide that the Saints have been out-gained this season. They are more about style than substance. The Bucs are much more mundane on offense, but their defense makes plays. They have 30 takeaways and are a plus 15 in turnover ratio. The Bucs also are extremely well coached on defense. Saints QB Aaron Brooks has talent and a big arm, but hes young and prone to make mistakes. The Saints could also be without star all-purpose RB Deuce McAllister (check status). McAllister had accounted for 97 percent of New Orleansrunning game, until missing last weeks loss to Cleveland with a sprained ankle. The Saints need to score plenty of points because their defense is allowing 25.5 points per game. However, in the last two weeks the Saints have combined to score just 32 points. The Saints pass rush is down from past seasons. They have 25 sacks, after posting 53 last season. Given time, Bucs QB Brad Johnson can hurt a defense with his accuracy. Defensive lineman Norman Hand and LB Charlie Clemons are having bad seasons for the Saints. New Orleans biggest weakness, though, has been its secondary. CB Dale Carter is rusty after returning from an eight-game suspension. His return has so far failed to noticeably improve the quality of the secondary. This will be the Bucs first road game in five weeks, so they should be rested. TAMPA BAY 30-19
NFL PLAYS SUMMARY
****BEST BETS
4* Chicago over *Green Bay by 7
3* Baltimore over *Cincinnati by 17
**PREFERRED PLAYS
Miami over *Buffalo by 10
Tampa Bay over *New Orleans by 11
CLOSE CALLS
New England over *Detroit by 1 (Thanksgiving)
*Dallas over Washington by 1 (Thanksgiving)
NFL TOTALS
**OVER: Atlanta at Minnesota Mike Vick and his teammates are getting better each week and will be operating against a horrible defense, while the Vikings are averaging close to 24 points their past five games.
UNDER: Pittsburgh at Jacksonville The Steelers lose their passing edge without Tommy Maddox, and six of the last seven games between these teams at Jacksonville has gone under the total.
UNDER: Tennessee at New York Giants Tricky winds this time of year at Giants Stadium could hurt the kickers in this matchup, which figures to have plenty of running and conservative play-calling.
DETAILED NCAA & NFL PLAYS ANALYSIS
****BEST BETS
Chicago over *Green Bay by 7
Brett Favre is going wild again. Thats not good if youre Green Bay. After playing under control for most of the season, Favre has cut loose with seven interceptions the past two games. The result has been Green Bay road losses to Minnesota and Tampa Bay. Now here come the Bears, who had not won since Week 2 until beating Detroit in overtime last week. Even with that morale boost, the Bears arent going anywhere this season, and they know it. Theyre just trying to survive an injury-plagued season. They have already lost 42 different players, when last year they had 31 injuries the entire season. The Bears also have had to play all their games on the road because of remodeling to Solider Field, their home stadium. Believe it or not, this actually will be their first game on grass all season. The Bears are more suited to grass because they like to run the ball, play for field position and rely on their defense. This is one of the rare games the Bears have been pointing to ever since the Packers embarrassed them on Monday night earlier this season with Favre passing for 359 yards and three touchdowns. This is the oldest rivalry in professional football, and the Bears have no excuse not to be pumped. Despite their 3-7 mark, they have come close their two previous games before Detroit, losing at the very end to New England and battling the Rams on Monday night. The Bears covered both of those contests. This shows that the Bears havent quit, which is crucial when backing a large underdog. While Green Bay has defeated the Bears nine straight times in Illinois, they are 2-3 ATS the past five in Green Bay. If the point spread creeps past 10, keep in mind, too, the Packers are 0-10-2 ATS when laying 11 or more points. Green Bays run defense could be impacted if huge nose tackle Gilbert Brown (check status) is unable to play. Hes their key run stuffer. CHICAGO 26-19.
***BEST
Baltimore over *Cincinnati by 17
You sure wont hear any guaranteed win predictions this week from Dick LeBeau or any of his Bengals. The Bengals arent playing an expansion team this week. They also are at home. Thats bad news for the Bengals. Its even worse news for their fans, which have to watch them. You would think grocery bags would be a hot selling concession item in Cincinnati. The Bengals have yet to win or cover in five home games this season. Baltimore lost 27 players from last year due to salary cap reasons. Star middle linebacker Ray Lewis has missed six of the past seven games, and their offense ranks near the bottom. Yet the Ravens have things the Bengals totally lack. They have character, mental toughness and good coaching. Those are all foreign concepts to the Bengals. Ravens coach Brian Billick has kept his team together. This is reflected in the standings, where the Ravens are just one game under .500 and in contention for the AFC North Division title. So unlike the Bengals, the Ravens still have playoff motivation. When the teams met just three weeks ago, the Ravens won, 38-27. It was the ninth time in 11 games the Ravens have won and covered against Cincinnati. Jon Kitna has been the Bengalsbest quarterback, which certainly doesnt say much for the state of the team. Yet it wouldnt be surprising if the Bengals cheap management orders LeBeau to play someone else at quarterback because they dont want to have pay performance bonuses that would be due to Kitna. Obviously if Lewis plays, its a huge boost for the Ravens, although Ed Hartwell and Bernardo Harris have been filling in well at linebacker. But the key here is the Ravens should have enough savvy and motivation to get a victory against a listless and gutless Bengals squad that does nothing but lose. The Bengals are 3-7 ATS as an underdog, and have yet to show much life. BALTIMORE 30-13.
**PREFERRED PLAYS
Miami over *Buffalo by 10
Ordinarily we would stay away from the Dolphins in a cold weather site like this. Miami is 0-2 this season in cold weather, losing to Green Bay on Monday night and to the New York Jets. But there is a clear class difference here. The Dolphins are a legitimate playoff team, while the Bills are perhaps a year away. The Dolphins have the better defense and rushing attack. Miami has held its last two foes, Baltimore and San Diego, to a combined 301 yards. The Bills are allowing an average of 33.6 points at home. Not only are the Bills among the most penalized teams in the NFL, but also their offense has regressed. After scoring at least 23 points during their first eight games, the Bills have scored just seven against New England, 16 vs. Kansas City and 13 to the New York Jets. None of those defenses has ever been referred to as being especially tough. They are all clearly inferior to Miamis defense. The Dolphins also know Drew Bledsoe well, having annually gone against him when he played for New England. Prior to this season, the Dolphins had won and covered their past four meetings against Buffalo. But the Bills took advantage of Ray Lucas first start at quarterback to pick off four passes in beating the Dolphins, 23-10, on Oct. 20. Lucas has since settled down to play better, and theres a chance the Dolphins could get back theuir starting quarterback Jay Fielder (check status). MIAMI 26-16.
Tampa Bay over *New Orleans by 11
A flashy offense, exciting game-breakers and a gaudy 7-4 record cant hide that the Saints have been out-gained this season. They are more about style than substance. The Bucs are much more mundane on offense, but their defense makes plays. They have 30 takeaways and are a plus 15 in turnover ratio. The Bucs also are extremely well coached on defense. Saints QB Aaron Brooks has talent and a big arm, but hes young and prone to make mistakes. The Saints could also be without star all-purpose RB Deuce McAllister (check status). McAllister had accounted for 97 percent of New Orleansrunning game, until missing last weeks loss to Cleveland with a sprained ankle. The Saints need to score plenty of points because their defense is allowing 25.5 points per game. However, in the last two weeks the Saints have combined to score just 32 points. The Saints pass rush is down from past seasons. They have 25 sacks, after posting 53 last season. Given time, Bucs QB Brad Johnson can hurt a defense with his accuracy. Defensive lineman Norman Hand and LB Charlie Clemons are having bad seasons for the Saints. New Orleans biggest weakness, though, has been its secondary. CB Dale Carter is rusty after returning from an eight-game suspension. His return has so far failed to noticeably improve the quality of the secondary. This will be the Bucs first road game in five weeks, so they should be rested. TAMPA BAY 30-19
