POINTWISE PLAYS
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES 11-06 & 07
(con't)
CENTRAL FLORIDA (HC) 27 - Ohio U 24 - (4:00) -- If the Knights (and O'Leary)
are to get off the schneid (12 straight losses), this is the time. Only 7 & 9 FDs
last 2 weeks, & no rushing "O". But 4 straight losses for 'Cats, so vulnerable.
Eastern Michigan 35 - Central Michigan 31 - (4:30 @ Detroit) -- Eastern is
averaging 31 pts in last 4 outings, with QB Bonet a nice 16/5 TDs to INTs. On
3-game ATS run. CM's Seymour held <100 RYs 1st time in a dozen tilts LW.
HOUSTON (HC) 45 - East Carolina 14 - (5:00) -- Chance for the Coogs to take
out carload of frustrations. Kolb ate the Pirates up LY, & check UH "D" holding
Tulane to 3 pts, after 59 -pt explosion previous wk. Pirates took advantage of
lacking Army "D", but rank 114th in rushing "O", & allowing 55 ppg on the road.
ARIZONA STATE (HC) 41 - Stanford 13 - (6:30) -- Devils have been outscored
72-7 by mighty USC & Cal, but averaging >36 pts in other 6 games. Walter
last 3 wks: 0 TDs, 6 TDs, 0 TDs. Have to see patented comeback effort, &
with Cards averaging 9 ppg in 3 of last 4 outings, can't seem them staying in it.
SOUTH CAROLINA 38 - Arkansas 28 - (7:00) -- 'Cocks posted 30 FDs, 226
RYs, & 341 PYs (155 yd edge) in loss to Tenn, but couldn't overcome 3 INTs,
& TD on KO return. Pinkins is healthy, & SC should move it vs Hog "D" which
has allowed 513, 522 yds last 2 games. Host is on an 8-0 ATS run in Ark tilts.
Navy 31 - TULANE 20 - (7:00) -- Middies had season-high 346 yds in avenging
'03 loss to Delaware, behind QB Polanco & RB Eckel. Now 7-1 SU, while the
Wave is just 2-5. Greenies can't stay with 'em, overland (>108 RYs just 1 of
6 lined tilts), but Ricard is dangerous overhead. Revenge sandwich for Navy.
TEXAS 37 - Oklahoma State 14 - (7:00) -- Nice time for 'Horns to be catching
crestfallen 'Pokes (missed 49-yd tying FG in last 0:11 vs Okies, with Morency
<100 RYs first time). Steers in off perhaps best 2 performances of the year,
with RY edges of 351-(-17) & 326-3. And Texas took 'em by 49 just last year.
NEVADA-RENO 45 - San Jose State 31 - (9:05) -- Plenty of running here, as
rested Reno has allowed 267 RYpg last 4 outings, while the Spartans ranked
dead last in rush "D", before holding Utep to just 144 yds. Five TOs killed 'em
in that one, but before stepping out with SJSt, note host is 9-0 ATS in Nev tilts.
HAWAII 46 - Louisiana Tech 24 - (11:05) -- Chang still needs 14 PYs for set alltime
Div I record for most PYs. His 4 picks vs Boise should have him focused
here, & remember that the 'Bows are averaging 46 pts at home. Tech "D" can
be had, but Moats (if healthy) is salivating over prospect of facing HI rush "D".
TUESDAY NIGHT
NORTHERN ILLINOIS 45 - Toledo 42 - (7:30 - ESPN2) -- This one has all the
earmarks of a classic shootout. Both are on 6-game runs, amazingly averaging
an identical 42 pts in those streaks. Haldi & Wolfe over Gradkowski, but barely.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LOUISVILLE 56 - Texas Christian 13 - (7:00 - ESPN2) -- No Saturday games
for Cards between Oct 2 & Nov 20. Have 128-16 pt edge at home, & should be
able to move at will vs Frogs, who are on an 0-6 spread run on the road, losing to
the spot by nearly 14 ppg. Tcu ranks last in passing "D". LeFors highlight reel.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM 48 - South Florida 24 - (7:00 - ESPN2) -- Hackney
continues his onslaught for Blazers. Another 448 yds vs Tulane & 18/4 TD/INT
ratio. Loss to Greenies wasn't in cards, but quick bounceback vs defenseless
Bulls (>40 pts 3 of last 4), with Julmiste in off horrendous 3-of-20 showing. Rout.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Louisville 38 - MEMPHIS 20 - (7:30 - ESPN) -- Fully realize that the dog is king
in this series, that the Tigers are averaging 47 pts at home, & that Williams has
topped 100 RYs in 15 of his last 17 games. But there is no bucking this smoking
Card outfit, which is 6-0 ATS, by 13.25 ppg ATS. LeFors is 38-of-48 last 2 gms.
FRIDAY NIGHT
Marshall 22 - AKRON 20 - (7:30 - ESPN2) -- Just 20 pts for the Herd vs CFla's
38 ppg D", with Hill a human 15-of-41. Marshall is 5-0 in MAC play, but has worst
"O" in nation. Zips have gotten 510 RYs from Biggs last 3, & Frye is steady hand.
SATURDAY
BOSTON COLLEGE 27 - Rutgers 20 - (12:00) -- Only Syracuse & WVa ran on
Knights, who are only 18 pts from an 18-1 ATS run. Eagles rested, but WVa is
up next. QB Peterson & BC's rush "D" are solid, but still a question overland.
FLORIDA STATE (HC) 49 - Duke 7 - (12:00) -- 'Noles have dropped to 13th in
both polls, & deservedly so. Only 94 RYpg last 2, with Washington's shoulder
injury key. But covered their last HG by 30, & altho the Imps are in off 423-400
yd edge at Wake, not the opportune time to be catching the Sems. In a romp.
WISCONSIN 37 - Minnesota 17 - (12:00) -- Bye week was perfect timing for the
Badgers, with "D" line hurting. Were mauled overland at Minny LY, but Gophs
are epitome of home/road dichotomy, losing their last 2 travelers by 42? & 26?
pts ATS, & in off 238-169 RY deficit vs impotent Indiana rush game. Revenge!
MICHIGAN STATE 34 - Ohio State 17 - (12:00) -- Spartan psyche is of utmost
concern, after blowing 27-10 lead over hated Mich in final 6? minutes. Stanton
expected to miss this, but note MSt averaging 287 RYs & 346 PYs last 4 tilts.
No TDs for 98th rated Bucks offense LW, which lost its last RG by 26 pts ATS.
ILLINOIS 27 - Indiana 17 - (12:00) -- Fourteen straight Big10 losses for the Illini,
who are averaging just 68 RYs in 4 of last 5 outings. But note holding Iowa to
2.1 ypr. Should move it vs Indy's 110th ranked defense. This a home series.
PENN STATE 13 - Northwestern 10 - (12:00) -- Lions averaging only 7 pts & 67
RYs in current 5-game slide. Only 1 TD over the past 2 wks. 'Cats pulled the
upset of Purdue, winning in final 0:38, but caught in revenge sandwich. Pass.
IOWA 24 - Purdue 17 - (12:00) -- It has all come crashing down for Boilers, who
have fallen out of Top 25, after ranking 5th just 3 wks back. Seven TOs in three
late losses to Wisc, Mich, & NW, after only 2 in first 5 games. And Orton was
benched at NW. Hawks outscored MichSt & OhioSt by 71-23 as Big10 hosts.
MIAMI-FLORIDA (HC) 38 - Clemson 10 - (12:00) -- Ultimate embarrassment for
'Canes, losing as 3-TD chalks. Have allowed 100 pts & 1,492 yds past 3 gms,
& their running game is now a question. Tigers did it to NCSt, but 6 takeaways
were key, & check only 62 RYpg in their last 4 ACC games. 'Cane bounceback.
MISSOURI 31 - Kansas State 17 - (12:30) -- Tigers have been outscored 44-3,
since taking 17-0 lead over OkieSt. Allowed only 8 FDs LW, but were killed by
the TO & big play in loss to Neb. Overland game suddenly iffy, but Smith will do
his thing vs 'Cat "D" which has allowed >30 pts in 5 of last 7 outings. Tiger call.
WEST VIRGINIA (HC) 44 - Temple 20 - (1:00) -- Mounties dominant overland of
late, with RYs edges of 309-97, 279-66, & 267-87 last 3, but they have little or
no breathing room, ATS. Owls, who have allowed 45, 45, & 45 pts in 3 of last
4 RGs, are rested, off 475 yd effort at UConn. Slightest puppy shade in this.
Georgia 45 - KENTUCKY 10 - (1:00) -- Greene has now tied Payton Manning as
the winningest starting QB ever: 39 victories. 'Dawgs are caught in a Fla/Aub
sandwich here, but they need some competition in order for that to work, & the
'Cats hardly provide any. Check UK's 267-70 RYpg deficit last 4 outings. Ugly.
ARMY 38 - Air Force 34 - (1:00) -- Cadets couldn't handle chalk role, after 3 easy
******. Averaging 240 RYs & 234 PYs past 3, but have nation's worst "D".
Falcs welcome that stat, but allowing 42 ppg last 3, themselves. Entertaining.
SYRACUSE 31 - Pittsburgh 20 - (1:30) -- 'Cuse came from 279-66 RY deficit to
281-121 in a week. Only 17 FDs, along with a 12? minute disadvantage LW,
but registered 5 sacks vs UConn. Pitt is rested, has ND & WV up next, & was
outstatted in its only 2 easy wins this year (Rutgers & OhioU). A dog series.
Virginia Tech 31 - NORTH CAROLINA 16 - (1:30) -- How about that! Tars rolled
up 30 FDs, along with 545 yds in epic upset of Miami, winning on 42-yd FG as
time ran out. Nothing fluky about it. Hokies trailed GT 20-12 with 5? left. Won
34-20. Tech's 8th rated "D" should put clamps on elated Heels. Not involved.
Kent State 28 - BUFFALO 21 - (1:30) -- Bulls rested off running for 202 yds vs
Marshall's 14th rated rush "D". Host is on 6-0 ATS run in UB games, but note
that Kent is only 11 pts from an 11-1 ATS run, & QB Cribbs is simply on fire.
ADDED GAMES
North Texas 41 - LAFAYETTE 37 TROY STATE 35 - Fla-Atlantic 30
Arkansas State 27 - IDAHO 21 MONROE 17 - Utah State 13
Middle Tennessee State 33 - NEW MEXICO STATE 30
