Shockers a SUCKERS Bet????
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Totally agree...expected to see a line around 8...then again,
I thought St Pete was a sucker bet against Siena
yesterday :shrug: ...good ol' Vegas...luvs to keep us guessing!
I thought St Pete was a sucker bet against Siena
yesterday :shrug: ...good ol' Vegas...luvs to keep us guessing!
8???? an amazing number
The following teams would be a fav of 5 to 9 points at Ill State
Geo Tech
Ill
flo
ok state
prov
Purdue
Syracuse
Wake
None of these remind me of WSU
Ill state has a rating of 19- 5 for home court= 14
WSU has a 14...line close to a pick
Chicago Bob
The following teams would be a fav of 5 to 9 points at Ill State
Geo Tech
Ill
flo
ok state
prov
Purdue
Syracuse
Wake
None of these remind me of WSU
Ill state has a rating of 19- 5 for home court= 14
WSU has a 14...line close to a pick
Chicago Bob
Like I said...expected line to be 8 and still wouldnt have been near enough! Nice call and congrats!
result of the game aside, i have to somewhat agree with chicago robbie.
just because a game ends in a blowout doesnt necessarily mean the line was "off", the "wrong team was favored", or the winning side should have "been favored by much more".
lines arent final score projectors, nor are they "way off" if a team runs away with a win.
that being said, shockers appeared to be an easy cash.
just because a game ends in a blowout doesnt necessarily mean the line was "off", the "wrong team was favored", or the winning side should have "been favored by much more".
lines arent final score projectors, nor are they "way off" if a team runs away with a win.
that being said, shockers appeared to be an easy cash.
Gman,
I spent a lot of money at local bookies betting college hoops years ago, because I didn't understand how Vegas set the lines. It doesn't mean I am a good capper now, but at least I understand the basic principles of setting a line.
With hundreds of games each week, it is impossible for Vegas to look at every game. What is done, is set a power ranking for each team, then a value for how each team plays at home. Then the computer takes over and shoots out the spread based on the rankings and home court values.
When a team constantly beats the spread at home, a.k.a Tenn, Flo State, N C State, it is beacause Vegas is behind on placing the correct value on their home court, and Vegas may go thru a whole season without ever getting the value correct. It is difficult to change the power ratings by any significamnt number because it would screw up the number when these Monsters at home go on the road, where most don't do as well
If one would go back and check Tenn record at home, against kentucky, you will find an 80% cover by Tenn over a 40 year period. I have seen Tenn + huge numbers, like 7, 8 , 9, absolutely kick the crappolla out of Kentucky, SU as huge dogs, but, only at home. It is one of the biggest rivalries in college hoops, imo. When Kentucky TOPPED off Rupp Arena years ago and became the largest on-cmpus arena in the U S, Tenn anounced that very day, they were building their own, only with a capacity a few hundred more then Kentucky. Civil War stuff
Years ago I followed two teams closely, both when they were on te road. Northwestern and Colorado, Conference games only. Over a 12 year period, Northwestern failed to cover 85% of the time on the road and Colorado, in the days of the Big 8, covered only an average of 1 1/2 games each year, playing 7 away games.
There are still teams out there performing as Colo and N W did, the trick is finding them. We all know about the Monsters at home, Tenn, NCS and Flo State, and Colorado isn't too bad either.
If sanyone wants to share info on lines, or how they set their own, feel free to join in. I am sure we all can learn something.
Chicago Bob
I spent a lot of money at local bookies betting college hoops years ago, because I didn't understand how Vegas set the lines. It doesn't mean I am a good capper now, but at least I understand the basic principles of setting a line.
With hundreds of games each week, it is impossible for Vegas to look at every game. What is done, is set a power ranking for each team, then a value for how each team plays at home. Then the computer takes over and shoots out the spread based on the rankings and home court values.
When a team constantly beats the spread at home, a.k.a Tenn, Flo State, N C State, it is beacause Vegas is behind on placing the correct value on their home court, and Vegas may go thru a whole season without ever getting the value correct. It is difficult to change the power ratings by any significamnt number because it would screw up the number when these Monsters at home go on the road, where most don't do as well
If one would go back and check Tenn record at home, against kentucky, you will find an 80% cover by Tenn over a 40 year period. I have seen Tenn + huge numbers, like 7, 8 , 9, absolutely kick the crappolla out of Kentucky, SU as huge dogs, but, only at home. It is one of the biggest rivalries in college hoops, imo. When Kentucky TOPPED off Rupp Arena years ago and became the largest on-cmpus arena in the U S, Tenn anounced that very day, they were building their own, only with a capacity a few hundred more then Kentucky. Civil War stuff
Years ago I followed two teams closely, both when they were on te road. Northwestern and Colorado, Conference games only. Over a 12 year period, Northwestern failed to cover 85% of the time on the road and Colorado, in the days of the Big 8, covered only an average of 1 1/2 games each year, playing 7 away games.
There are still teams out there performing as Colo and N W did, the trick is finding them. We all know about the Monsters at home, Tenn, NCS and Flo State, and Colorado isn't too bad either.
If sanyone wants to share info on lines, or how they set their own, feel free to join in. I am sure we all can learn something.
Chicago Bob
