I was curious about how NFL teams have done in the playoffs on a short week. No surprise, it's not great. Here are some stats.
I only went back over the last 4 seasons. 2021 was the first year they added a Monday Night game in the WC round.
Overall, teams on a short week are 3-6 SU and 4-4-1 ATS. Yes, obviously we're dealing with a small sample size. But maybe the 4th quarter is the most telling. When teams on a short week may be getting tired. The teams on the short week have been outscored in the 4th quarter by a cumulative score of 87-43. That includes the 2 games when the team on short rest outscored their opponent.
Since it's that WC Monday Night game that first made me think about this, I then isolated those teams that played Monday (this year, it's Houston). Teams that won the Monday Night game are 1-4 SU and 2-3* ATS in the Divisional Round. I included the * because last year the LA Rams played Monday and then lost at Philadelphia by 6 (as a 7-point dog), BUT Jake Elliott missed 2 XP that game. So the Rams covering was a bit of an aberration. And here's maybe the biggest stat of all this. The teams that win that Monday WC game have been outscored in the 4th quarter in the Divisional Round 57-19.
We have 3 teams on short rest this weekend. Buffalo and SF both played on Sunday and this week are playing on Saturday. And Houston played Monday. All 3 were on the road last week and again this week, but with the tiny sample size, nothing stands out with that angle.
I may be driving through the Adirondacks late Sunday afternoon, so I won't even get a chance to bet the NE/Houston game live. But DK has lines available for each quarter. NE is -130 on the ML and -0.5 (+105) for the 4th quarter. NE has been a much better first half team this year, but this still looks like a good bet.
I only went back over the last 4 seasons. 2021 was the first year they added a Monday Night game in the WC round.
Overall, teams on a short week are 3-6 SU and 4-4-1 ATS. Yes, obviously we're dealing with a small sample size. But maybe the 4th quarter is the most telling. When teams on a short week may be getting tired. The teams on the short week have been outscored in the 4th quarter by a cumulative score of 87-43. That includes the 2 games when the team on short rest outscored their opponent.
Since it's that WC Monday Night game that first made me think about this, I then isolated those teams that played Monday (this year, it's Houston). Teams that won the Monday Night game are 1-4 SU and 2-3* ATS in the Divisional Round. I included the * because last year the LA Rams played Monday and then lost at Philadelphia by 6 (as a 7-point dog), BUT Jake Elliott missed 2 XP that game. So the Rams covering was a bit of an aberration. And here's maybe the biggest stat of all this. The teams that win that Monday WC game have been outscored in the 4th quarter in the Divisional Round 57-19.
We have 3 teams on short rest this weekend. Buffalo and SF both played on Sunday and this week are playing on Saturday. And Houston played Monday. All 3 were on the road last week and again this week, but with the tiny sample size, nothing stands out with that angle.
I may be driving through the Adirondacks late Sunday afternoon, so I won't even get a chance to bet the NE/Houston game live. But DK has lines available for each quarter. NE is -130 on the ML and -0.5 (+105) for the 4th quarter. NE has been a much better first half team this year, but this still looks like a good bet.
