should i hedge

highendlowlife

highendlowlife

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Rod Stewart is my neighbor!
Parlay made yesterday 5 down one to go
[Ticket #: 75805639] PARLAY (6 TEAMS)
04/28/2010 @ 05:10 PM MLB [963] CIN REDS -111
( M LEAKE -R / F PAULINO -R )
04/28/2010 @ 05:20 PM MLB [966] STL CARDINALS -163
( K KAWAKAMI-R / J GARCIA -L )
04/28/2010 @ 04:10 PM MLB [973] NY YANKEES -250
( C SABATHIA-L / J GUTHRIE-R )
04/29/2010 @ 07:05 PM MLB [908] SDG PADRES -145
( D DAVIS-L / W LEBLANC-L )
04/28/2010 @ 05:00 PM NBA [537] MIL GM5 +10-130 (B+1)
04/28/2010 @ 07:50 PM NBA [542] DEN GM5 -6-130 (B+1)

Made this yesterday only thing left is the padres the more i look at that game the more i worry
would appreciate the help normally i never hedge
 
G

Glenn Quagmire

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Personally, I always hedge in those situations to guarantee a profit. Worst case is that you miss out on some money, but the best case is you have no chance of losing it all. Losing a parlay because of one game is brutal. Having said all that I'm on the Padres tonight, so what the hell do I know? :shrug:
 
cbrown334

cbrown334

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highendlowlife said:
Parlay made yesterday 5 down one to go
[Ticket #: 75805639] PARLAY (6 TEAMS)
04/28/2010 @ 05:10 PM MLB [963] CIN REDS -111
( M LEAKE -R / F PAULINO -R )
04/28/2010 @ 05:20 PM MLB [966] STL CARDINALS -163
( K KAWAKAMI-R / J GARCIA -L )
04/28/2010 @ 04:10 PM MLB [973] NY YANKEES -250
( C SABATHIA-L / J GUTHRIE-R )
04/29/2010 @ 07:05 PM MLB [908] SDG PADRES -145
( D DAVIS-L / W LEBLANC-L )
04/28/2010 @ 05:00 PM NBA [537] MIL GM5 +10-130 (B+1)
04/28/2010 @ 07:50 PM NBA [542] DEN GM5 -6-130 (B+1)

Made this yesterday only thing left is the padres the more i look at that game the more i worry
would appreciate the help normally i never hedge
Click to expand...

I LIKE TO HEDGE TOO, WHAT ARE YOU RISKING VS. WINNING IN THIS PARLAY IF YA DON'T MIND ME ASKING?
 
T

Theboundbook

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Definitely HEDGE.... crazy not to. My rule for myself, (after losing on the last game more than I care to remember), is HEDGE ANY parlay over 4 games. (sometimes even 4)...

And what's nice, is that SD is the FAVORITE, so, depending on what you risk/receive, you'll be getting appx 1.2:1 on MIL tonight (+120)...

Good luck on SD! (They have been hottest team in West so far :scared :scared :scared )
 
H

HoopsGuru

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my question to the original poster is why make a multi-day parlay if you're planning on hedging after you hit the first 5 plays? Why not just make a 5 teamer and it would be over by now. I don't like to make a parlay and hedge unless some information comes up that makes me change my mind after the parlay has been played. If you like the sd play i'd stay with it, if you don't feel comfortable with it anymore then by all means go for the hedge. good luck with the rest of the parlay!
 
highendlowlife

highendlowlife

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Rod Stewart is my neighbor!
HoopsGuru said:
my question to the original poster is why make a multi-day parlay if you're planning on hedging after you hit the first 5 plays? Why not just make a 5 teamer and it would be over by now. I don't like to make a parlay and hedge unless some information comes up that makes me change my mind after the parlay has been played. If you like the sd play i'd stay with it, if you don't feel comfortable with it anymore then by all means go for the hedge. good luck with the rest of the parlay!
Click to expand...

i bascially added the padres because i was being greedy i usually never make multi-day parlays
with that being said i think im over analyzing the pads game which is messing with my head because at first i felt real comfortable with play been following the pads since spring training and
this kid leblanc is nasty he was only sent to the minors because we were out of options on a couple of other pitchers
 
T

Theboundbook

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highendlowlife said:
i bascially added the padres because i was being greedy i usually never make multi-day parlays
with that being said i think im over analyzing the pads game which is messing with my head because at first i felt real comfortable with play been following the pads since spring training and
this kid leblanc is nasty he was only sent to the minors because we were out of options on a couple of other pitchers
Click to expand...

If you took out the SD game, your parlay would have paid around 622.04; a difference of 463.38.... (1085.42 -622.04 (would have paid on parlay WITHOUT SD)=463.38 is how i figured that.


So, if you werent greedy you would now be up 622.04.

this game you have 50/463.38 pretty much on SD -130ish; follow me???

so with that, you actually have SD at 9:1 about on just this game alone. I PERSONALLY would hedge half of that; so 4.5x(original bet of 50), so I would lay 225 on MIL at +120.

so, 225/264 on MIL. If MIL wins you profit 214 for pushing the greed card too far.

If they lose, and SD COMES THROUGH for you on your "GREEDY PLAY" you win your 1085.42 -225.00 (risked on MIL ML)=860.42.

That way you make extra cash for being GREEDY (it still pays to be greedy).... OR you win 214.00 and learn a lesson which the poster above was saying about why do you do a multiday parlay when you could have already won. BUT, YOU STILL GET PAID A NICE PAYOUT.
 
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