Sneaky 4th

[JT Sneaks]

With a full slate of games, I am going to keep the recap short and not so sweet....

St. Louis +110 L-1.00
STL/MIL UNDER 9.5 -110 W+1.00
Cubs -115 W+1.00
Reds -125 L -1.25
Tampa Bay +125 Double Unit Selection W+2.50
Philly +135 L-1.00
Baltimore +130 L-1.00
SF +135 L -1.00
UNDER 9-120 SF/LA W +1.00

Yesterday:4-5, +.025
Dalla Factor:+2.5
Overall: 26-14, +19.38
Dalla Factor: +53.5

The tampa bay double unit selection was a big win, as it kept me out of the red with a small profit on the day. Overall it was still a tough day as I had a lead in three out of my five losses, as baltimore, philly, and san fran, could not hold on.

I look to get back on track with winners early and often and I will provide reasoning with as many selections as I can.

JT

Sneaks



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A man is not defined by how he reacts when he wins, but how he reacts when he loses.
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[JT Sneaks]

I like the first game out of the gate this morning, and if it wasn't for the weather I would have considered trying to turn two here.
KC @ Detroit -120 / 9.5U15

First the total, I cannot understand why it is at -115, when the Over seems to be the obvious play. Both pitchers have seen better times and the umpire is an over guy at 10-5, and averaging over 11 runs per game. The wind is blowing at 10 mph which is usually a good thing as when it is between 0-10 the O/U is 13/6, however the direction is west which is in. The forecast shows it blowing west/southwest all day, and although southwest is not in, I think I'll pass, for now.

However I do have a play on the side. Although the pitching matchup is even overall in the last three suppan is the better pitcher, the royals, are the hotter of the two hitting clubs (.331 vs. .254 in the last ten) and the hotter overall (KC7-3 vs. Det 2-8)

Whenever I can get the hotter pitcher, with the hotter team, who is hitting the ball much better at plus money, I'm down.

PLAY KC +110

If it was not for a bad day record for suppan, this would be a double unit selection.


back with more....

JT

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

Boston @ Cleveland -115
Emotions will be running high again as manny plays hi second game back at the jake after leaving for the bosox via free agency. I have never seen a game that should be more of a pass than this one. The sox in the last ten are hitting the ball better, have the better record, and have a hotter pitcher in the last three.

But wait a minute....wakefield has been getting beat up by the tribe, especially at the jake and although gonzo has some trouble with the knuckle everyone else hits him well. Burba's record is not graet against the sox, but four of the bosox starting nine hit less than .200 vs. Burba. Burba is alos 14-2 in his last 16 at home, and 8-1 in his last nine day starts.
Behind the plate Barksdale is a pure homer no bones about it, as the home team is 13-6 this year and 25-7 in the last two years.Burbas has won his last two straight vs. Boston, while wakefield only has won win in his last five vs. the tribe.

PASS

I usually do not go on so much about a pass, however I know this game is on the deuce, so I am sure it will get alot of action so I just wanted to get the info out.....

JT

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

Cubs -120 @ Mets 9U10

I think there is some value in try to turn two here. Those who backed the mets last night will agree with me when I say the mets had many chances to win last night, but blew it.

PLAY METS +110
I know it is hard to give reasoning for backing a team that is only hitting .205 in it's last ten vs. righties. However the mets will put rusch on the mound today and he has been able to shut down the cubs, as a matter of fact only Sosa at .286 hits well against him, and he has not homered against him, so that already is a plus. Tapani has been in a hole of late losing four straight and on the road he has lost three straight. The mets hitting wose should come to an end todays as several players hit tapani well.
Relaford .500
Ventura .415
Zeile .400
Finally the win last night for the cubbies was bigger than one may have thought because the cubs have a habit of playing bad in shea 2 wins in the last eleven games. If it was not for tapani's stellar day record (6-1) this may have also been a double play.


Now for the total

PLAY UNDER 9-115
Bottom line is hitting has been a problem for these teams and although I expect the mets to finally score runs, rome wasn't built in a day. First some trends for those cubbies:1-10-1 o/u last 12 games
1-9 o/u last 10 road games
0-7 o/u last 7 road Day games
Mets:6-20-1 o/u last 27 home games in July
2-6 o/u last 8 games
Now let's combine a few.....
In the last ten games, both of these teams combined have the over / under at 4-14. In the last three starts for both of the pitchers today the O/U is 1/5.

Finally behind the plate is Nelson who has the O/U at a cozy 6/10.

more to come....

JT

Sneaks

 

[The Mover]

JT,thanks for the write ups don't always agree but one thing for sure you make me take a closer look.especially like the mets have them even also the det. game was leaning to the under i know weavers last 3 have been real poor so you got me taking another. like the reds & the over. once again thanks

 

[JT Sneaks]

Mover,

Glad I could be of help...

Pitt @ Cincy

Did have a slight lean to the Over after looking at howie's post, but I think I will pass on that as well. The only positive I see for this game is that it might be rained out. PASS

[This message has been edited by JT Sneaks (edited 07-04-2001).]

 

[JT Sneaks]

I will be back later with some rapid writeups on the later games. In the meantime, I am going to enjoy some BBQ and brews with the fam....

out

happy 4th to all,

JT

Sneaks

 

[4bubba]

JT SNEAKS
As far as the Det/KC game, is there any stats on when a pitcher goes against the same team on 2 consecutive starts? Weaver is in that position for Det. From my extremely limited baseball experience it seems that a good start follows a bad start, and vice versa. Does this follow at all??


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indecision is the KEY to flexibility

 

[JT Sneaks]

4bubba,

I don't have any numbers on that, but I am sure you would find many an arguement for both sides of the coin. If a pitcher faced a team once and lost, isn't it possible that team will have his number and beat him up again? or if a pitcher faces a team and lost, isn't there a good chance he will learn from his mistakes and pitch better? Without any numbers it's a tough call...

BTW see some of the stuff you are doing in the NFL forum...great stuff....

JT

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

I know it's alot of chalk but I have to pull the trigger on:

Yankees -170

JT

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

Now for the rest of the slate ....

Around the horn

Philly @ Atlanta -170
This is alot of chalk to give a first place team, but I would be weary of taking it in this spot. As many have mentioned philly's bullpen worked overtime last night, and so if coggin does not pitch well they are again in trouble. The phillies regained thier confidence after being swept by Atlanta, and pounded the fish. They game into last night knowing they could beat the braves, and at one point had a nice lead. You know the rest. The phillies lost the game and thier confidence. Perez has pitched well against the phils once, and should do it again tonight. The braves just seem to have the phils number to the tune of 21-8 since '86.

PLAY Braves -170

more to follow,,,,,

JT

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

Florida @ Montreal

The fish broke a nice losing streak with a blowout win in montreal last night. However the expos are actually the hotter of the two clubs as they have won the last seven out of 11, and five out of six inthe dome. Mattes has also been on fire in his last three posting a minute era of 1.98, and getting an average of eight runs of support. Clement has had some problems with an era over six in his last three, and the his teams have won just one out of his last three vs the expos to include 0-2 at Montreal. Debating on the run line.

Double Unit Selection
Montreal -125

JT

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

adding sorry so late...

expos -1.5 +160
value, value, value.....

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

Before I get to my next game, I have a side note: I usually post about 4-8 double unit selections a week, and I rarely post a triple unit selection, maybe once, or twice a month.If the overnight line stands there is a good chance I will have a triple unit selection for tomorrow night. More info to come.

Rest of the slate:

Col +110
Tex +155
LA-105
OVER LA/SF 9 -110

JT

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

as if I needed anymore

Texas +1.5 -105

full slate again tomorrow.....

JT

Sneaks