I'd go further and say 2 to 3 TDs.
This line is way off and I'm happy for it.
The quality of play is night and day different.
NT's wins are against teams at the bottom of the barrel. They are going to meet one of the consistently better temas in Conf. USA.
It may take SM a few quarters to get warmed up, but no way you bring a one dimensional Offense against a defense that has far better talent and has played far better opponents.
Good Luck.