socon saturday

[loophole]

I'm cautiously optimistic about today's socon card. some of the games look too good to be true, but I see no serious red flags in the lines or the action so I'm forging ahead.

furman @ western carolina: furman's historical road woes have returned this season. paladins currently stand 2-6 s/u on the socon road, only wins were @ samford and @vmi. only other road win was @ unc-a back in november, making them 3-12 away overall. this is their 3rd road game of the week, with earlier losses Thursday @ etsu and last Saturday @ Wofford. Cullowhee holds little hope of relief for them, as the paladins are 3-12 in their last 15 trips to the cats' home court.

western is streaking, winning 6 of their last 7 (7-0 ats). they're 11-2 @ home, with only losses to etsu 2 weeks ago and college of charleston back in november. they're now in the driver's seat for a first round tourney bye, and they're playing to avenge a 2 point loss in greenville a month ago. the line currently sits @ western -1, showing very little situational adjustment from the 7- points the catamounts were catching in that game.

that's what I mean by too good to be true. regardless, big play on western carolina -1.

 

[buddy]

From a totally different handicapping point of view, what I find interesting is that furman. on their third consecutive game on the road, has lost their first two by very thin ats margins.

West Car, otoh, has won their last two games by very thin ats margins.

In their last two meetings, Furman is 2-0 SU / 1-1 ats.

WC may be looking to avenge the last two meetings with Furman, but given the margins of cover and no cover
of their most recent games I just don't see the advantage.

 

[loophole]

citadel @ vmi: best revenge play of the day, as the keydets lost in Charleston 78-75 4 weeks ago. but there's more going on than simple revenge here, and citadel coach duggar baucom knows it. you see, coach baucom led the keydets for 10 years until he bolted to the citadel this season, taking his run and gun style with him. this will be his first return to cameron hall since his defection, and it's not well timed for the bulldogs. this is senior night for 4 keydet seniors, who were all recruited by baucom. do you think they have this game circled? baucom's citadel transition hasn't exactly been a smooth one. sure, the bulldogs have set team scoring records running the court, but their defense has set new records of futility. this citadel team wasn't recruited to play this style of hoops, and it's showing. they're limping in, losing their last 8 and 10 of their last 11 (2-9 ats). citadel's last 3 fg% -27%, 39%, 27.9%. last game @ unc-g on Thursday, they were routed by the Spartans 92-63 in a game where they were dominated in every statistical category. not a good lead-in to today's emotionally charged scenario.

vmi is actually playing better, winning their last two home games against mercer and unc-g, and covering 3 of their last 4. and with every other intangigle in the mix this afternoon, this is the game that determines who finishes last in the socon. couldn't set up any sweeter for the keydets. vmi -3- all day.

 

[loophole]

buddy, what I'm seeing is a tradionally weak road team playing their 3rd road game in 8 days against a streaking team with one of the strongest home courts in the socon. and the spread won't help furman much today. If I was furman's coach though, I wouldn't want to go into the conference tournament next week off of 3 losses. like the man said, that's why they call it gambling.

 

[3 putt pete]

Thanks for one of few threads that are always worth opening here.

VMI back to back. :0074

Furman / WCar is a tougher nut to crack. I have to say that I was impressed with Furman's spirited attempt to come back after being buried in the FH by ETSU. With that in mind, I give Woff a punchers chance at an upset today at ETSU

In the OVC tinkering with the idea that Semo has a shot to hang around catching double digits.

Best of luck

 

[GaDawg12]

Hey Pete, we are all giving Loop his credit for his insight, well deserved I may add. I'd also like to give you your credit for all your insight and helpfulness:0008. Also, great year damn good job:toast:

 

[3 putt pete]

Thanks much Dawg :0008

 

[hawkeye]

Thanks loop. I am looking at totals on WC-Sam, Jax and TMart games--any thoughts?

 

[loophole]

hey hawkeye, not sure what to make of western's last game against Wofford, total-wise, so i'll pass that one. I favor all the socon home teams today, I would think utc will be wide open today to clinch the conference title on senior day and samford looks to out up their share so would lean to the over in that one. I wouldn't have much to offer on the ovc totals. I do like uva and the under today. cavs are laying for this one, and tough spot for the heels after the duke, Miami and state games. (I was surprised they were so hyped for the state game, guess I shouldn't have been). now roy is asking them to get up 4 in a row, and in charlotteville.? also like my canes under today vs the cards.

 

[hawkeye]

thanks-gl

 

[hawkeye]

Both Va and Mia unders look good

 

[GaDawg12]

Nice job Loop:toast:

 

[smax]

Loop :0008

Thank you, sir. These 2 + your reinforcement of IE's play on Indiana State sold me and gave me a very good day.

There is a network of very good solid cappers here with insights in various conferences and teams that make this a bit "easier" and sometimes?. even fun.

Hope your season and tourney roll . :toast:

 

[STEEL CITY SELECTIONS]

GREAT DAY LOOP


GLUCK TODAY
STEEL.