Some Angles And Trends For Tonite!!!

[jmizeus]

very tough to call mnf games since it is the only game on the schedule! so u will pick right or u will pick wrong! here are some trends and angles that might help ur decision:

denver is 9-1 ats playing in there last september rd game
11-3 ats when playing for revenge
9-2 ats in september afetr a home game

baltimore is 8-0 ats in game #4 (although this is there 3rd game)
9-1 ats @home vs non-division
10-3 ats in this series

denver is 6-15-1 vs the afc north since 1987
denver as a favorite is 20-6 (over) since 1993
denver is 13-4-1 over since 1992 vs the afc north

hope this helps make ur decision!

as for me lean towards the ravens but that could change-gl!

 

[ddubs]

All you just did was just confuse the hell out of me.

Probably will just put some pocket change on the Ravens+8 as an action junkie play, though.

Thanks, Mizer.

 

[jmizeus]

i hear ya there! really shity game tonite! the total might be the wtg? if i knew baltimore would play well might be worth a ml? many mnf games are not decided by points! up +4.6 units this week -might even pass! gl

 

[ddubs]

I just won't lay more than a TD on a road fav, esp. MNF. Plus the way the doggies have been covering at a incredible pace, just don't feel confident taking Den, even though Den clearly is the better team.

I'm considering teasing Den and the Under, though, or buy 1/2 point to get 37 and play under. Billick said that Jamal Lewis will get 20-30 carries this game, and that makes sense as the only way Balt will have a chance to win this game is to keep the Denver offense on the sidelines.

Den-1 / Under 43.5 sure looks tempting, though.

 

[jmizeus]

looks good ddubs! a midle might be worth it also! denver -1' ov 31' i use to do this on mnf! hit it a few times gl!

 

[ddubs]

2 min after I put a unit on Den-1 / Under43.5 on a 7-pt teaser, the line went to Den-9 and 35 on the total. I wouldn't be surprised to see Den-10 by game time.

I'm just gonna sit on the teaser and not waste my time on this, this line is too screwy. You'd think they'd come up with a better match up on MNF than Den at Balt. Sheesh!!

GL tonite, Mizer, whatever you choose to play. Heading over to baseball forum.

 

[TheShrimp]

Re: Some Angles And Trends For Tonite!!!

baltimore is 8-0 ats in game #4 (although this is there 3rd game)
9-1 ats @home vs non-division
10-3 ats in this series

10-3 ATS in WHAT series? Are you counting the cleveland browns, or the baltimore colts, or what?

One other question -- if buffalo's fans are so great why were Buffalo PLAYOFF games being blacked out in the early 90's?

(Sorry, as a Pats fan, I couldn't resist. )

 

[acehistr8]

Re: Some Angles And Trends For Tonite!!!

baltimore is 8-0 ats in game #4 (although this is there 3rd game)
10-3 ats in this series

Appreciate the info, but these particular trends make ZERO sense to me. What I mean is, they have virtually no use in my personal handicapping of the game. I just cant bring myself to compare how Baltimore played 8 years ago in Week 4 with now, hell even 2 years ago they were SB champs.

Now if it were something like home dogs are 8-0 ATS on Monday nights the Last 8 weeks, thats one thing. But to say Team A in Week X is 10-0 over the last 10 years?

 

[jmizeus]

shrimp, maybe some were blacked out-but they were still sold out!

acehistr- just something to go by if u like trends-thats all! like i said when it comes down to mnf- alot of it is just luck! i can remember many times on mnf that a team like denver comes into play on mnf -should be total domination! but times the dog comes to play -best they have played all year! seem it to many times\! just like last week-no way the rams will go 0-4-but guess what?

baltimore is a horrible team right now-but lets look @ the texan/eagle game yesterday! philly should have cake walked in there park. they won easily but not like alot thought they would! houston played a bit better than some thought-especially point wise-i never thought they would score more than 10 in that game!

on paper denver should smoke the ravens! but if jamaal lewis does run the ball 20-30 times and keeps his team in it-who knows

gl

 

[theGibber1]

great info!

good luck with what ever you decide

 

[jmizeus]

i already made up my mind and am sticking w/the ravens tonite! but i will wait to see if this line does hit maybe +10! all u raven backers lets let the public keep on helping us tonite!

i'm playing ravens + and also on the ml! gl guys!

by the way here is some more food for thought i did nort post!

thses are from statfox!

play On - Home underdogs of 7.5 to 14 points (BALTIMORE) - off a bye week.
(8-2 ATS) (80%, +5.8 units. Rating = 0*)

Play Against - Road favorites of 7.5 to 14 points (DENVER) - off a home win.
(51-29 ATS) (63.8%, +19.1 units. Rating = 1*)

Play On - Home underdogs of 7.5 to 14 points (BALTIMORE) - in the first month of the season.
(16-4 ATS) (80%, +11.6 units. Rating = 1*)

STATFOX GAME ESTIMATOR

Estimator projects an 18-13 Baltimore win with Baltimore outgaining Denver 247-240.

DENVER is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) when they gain less than 250 total yards since 1992.
The average score was DENVER 12.1, OPPONENT 20.6

STATFOX SITUATIONAL POWER TRENDS
BALTIMORE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) off a home loss since 1992. Average score was BAL 20.9, OPPONENT 16.2 DENVER is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better over the last 3 seasons. The average score was DENVER 20.4, OPPONENT 26.3

STATFOX ADVANCED TEAM STATS
In one of my favorite stats to analyze, Baltimore still sits among the tops in the league allowing just 4.7 yards per play. Denver has yielded 5.3 ypp. On offense Denver has a 5.5 to 4.2 ypp edge.

 

[ddubs]

STATFOX GAME ESTIMATOR

Estimator projects an 18-13 Baltimore win with Baltimore outgaining Denver 247-240.

Huh?? WTF?? 18-13 Balt, talk about going out on a limb!

GL, Mizer!!

 

[Ice Picks]

Line is up to Raves +10 at Casablanca...
All this means is the betting public is all over da Broncs...

And they have 34.5 on the Over/Under...

IP

 

[TheShrimp]

I thought I remember specifically that Buffalo-Houston game with the big comeback NOT being sold out. IIRC, that was their first playoff game after three straight superbowl losses.

Anyway, good luck on the ravens tonight. Just for action, I have a little on denver -7.5 but she's up to 9.5 (+100) at SIA right now and I'm really thinking about buying it back. God, with so many people on the Broncs, the Ravens HAVE to be the pick, huh?

I lived in Buffalo country for all four superbowls, and naturally as a Pats fan it started to get to me. I knew a couple of poster-boy fair weather fans too, so I never had the best impression of their fans. But, to tell you the truth, fans of every team except your own usually rub ya the wrong way.

Take 'er easy.

TheShrimp

 

[kebbyc]

shrimp, having lived in the area you know that buffalo has one of the biggest stadiums and the 2nd smallest market in football, behind Green Bay Good luck tonight

 

[jmizeus]

nice come back kebby!

i know ur just having fun shrimp!

maybe when the bill/p[ats play well have a little side bet-!:shrug:

 

[kebbyc]

absolutely just having fun shrimp, that is what the game is all about! Looking forward to your Pats coming to town.

 

[nakor]

Might think about teasing or parlaying BAL with the under. Actually if the line does hit 10 at one of my outs I will try that correlated parlay and bank on the Ravens defense - a teaser might even be better (say BAL +16 / UN41.5), if BAL can hold them to 17 points you are looking really good.

Of course I'd be rooting for DEN tonight... if only the (*#&$ Saints had won the first half of my large teaser.

Good luck all,
Nakor

 

[acehistr8]

if BAL can hold them to 17 points you are looking really good.

Phew that is a HUGE if in my book, though I agree with correlated parlays in the right instance.

 

[nakor]

That's true. IMO if BAL covers 8.5 points the game will almost surely go under 41 as I do not see them getting more than 17 (although I could be wrong.)

Since my available line has now dropped to 35 I will have to think about this some more. Seeing all these posts like 'Denver by 30' and 'Baltimore sucks, they have no chance' gets my dog jones groovin'. Of course I live in Baltimore and I know they aren't very good, but I NEVER lay >7 on the road in the NFL. Teasing down to 2.5 might be an option tho heh.