Just thought I'd share some of the info I use in capping baseball.
Of course the most important factor when capping baseball is Pitching. Always look at the current form of the pitchers....such as era, strikeout to walk ratio and also look at the average number of runners to reach base per 9 innings vs them. I usually only go back 3 games to get a more accurate reading of their current form.
Also, look at how they pitched last time out. Sometimes, say a decent pitcher in past has struggled for a while, but had a solid outing last time out, It could have just been their mechanics, which they got straightened out, and you could possibly get some nice value.
I also look at how the team has faired vs the opposing pitcher in the past. Some teams just plain struggle vs. certain pitchers. For example, Cleveland just can't hit that knuckle ball pitcher! (Sparks)
Alot of teams struggle vs. lefties (or righties) and it's a good idea to look at how many runs they average vs. the lefty or righty status of the pitcher. You can also go a little deeper and check those lefty-righty stats on the road or home or even day or night games.
Also, it's a good idea to make sure the bullpen isn't tired or just doesn't plain suck, especially when NOT dealing with the ace on the mound or with an ace on a low pitch count.
Also, a major angle I use is matching up the pitchers with the Home plate Umpires. For example, you get a pitcher who likes to nibble at the corners...say a Jamey Wright....matched up with an Ump with a tight strikezone, this = Runners and more runners on base. Of course you have the Umps with the huge zones as well.
For more on the Umpires...see my Umpire post.
Of course there's more factors but this should be a good foundation for people planning on betting some baseball.
-ndnfan
Of course the most important factor when capping baseball is Pitching. Always look at the current form of the pitchers....such as era, strikeout to walk ratio and also look at the average number of runners to reach base per 9 innings vs them. I usually only go back 3 games to get a more accurate reading of their current form.
Also, look at how they pitched last time out. Sometimes, say a decent pitcher in past has struggled for a while, but had a solid outing last time out, It could have just been their mechanics, which they got straightened out, and you could possibly get some nice value.
I also look at how the team has faired vs the opposing pitcher in the past. Some teams just plain struggle vs. certain pitchers. For example, Cleveland just can't hit that knuckle ball pitcher! (Sparks)
Alot of teams struggle vs. lefties (or righties) and it's a good idea to look at how many runs they average vs. the lefty or righty status of the pitcher. You can also go a little deeper and check those lefty-righty stats on the road or home or even day or night games.
Also, it's a good idea to make sure the bullpen isn't tired or just doesn't plain suck, especially when NOT dealing with the ace on the mound or with an ace on a low pitch count.
Also, a major angle I use is matching up the pitchers with the Home plate Umpires. For example, you get a pitcher who likes to nibble at the corners...say a Jamey Wright....matched up with an Ump with a tight strikezone, this = Runners and more runners on base. Of course you have the Umps with the huge zones as well.
For more on the Umpires...see my Umpire post.
Of course there's more factors but this should be a good foundation for people planning on betting some baseball.
-ndnfan
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