I know it's way too early to worry, or is it?
Tony Barnhart | Tuesday, October 21, 2008
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
It?s just for fun, but one of the things I like to do right after the first BCS Standings are released is look for what I call ?Doomsday Scenarios.? Those are potential outcomes that will drive the powers that be in college football, or at least some of them, absolutely crazy and spark cries for change in the post-season format for Division I-A football.
Here are some former Doomsday Scenarios that came true:
2000: Miami beats Florida State head to head during the regular season but finishes third behind the Seminoles in the final BCS Standings and gets shut out of the game. Florida State loses to Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl
2001: Nebraska played for the BCS championship but didn?t even win the Big 12. The Cornhuskers were embarrassed by Miami in the Rose Bowl.
2003: Southern Cal finishes No. 1 in both of the human polls but No. 3 in the BCS formula. LSU and Oklahoma play for the BCS championship and USC settles for the AP title. This game changed the BCS formula to weight it more heavily towards the human voters.
2004: Auburn wins the SEC championship at 12-0 and gets shut out of the BCS championship game.
What are the potential Doomsday Scenarios for this season? Here are just five:
1. Penn State gets left out: No. 1 Texas and No. 2 Alabama both finish 13-0 and win their respective conference championship games. Like Auburn in 2004, a 12-0 Penn State, which has not played a game since Nov. 22, finishes No. 3 because it played a weaker schedule. Joe Paterno, 81, is denied the chance to end his career with a national championship game. Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany, one of the strongest opponents to a four-team playoff, gets an earful from Paterno.
2. Alabama gets left out: The Crimson Tide has another second-half swoon Saturday night at Tennessee and needs a field goal at the buzzer to win 17-14. Penn State blows out Ohio State and the voters decide it is time for a change and move the Nittany Lions to No. 2 on Sunday. Penn State wins out. For the second time in five years an undefeated SEC team does not make the big game. SEC commissioner Mike Slive reintroduces his plan for a four-team playoff.
3. Southern Cal gets in, 12-1 SEC champ gets left out: The biggest disconnect between the human polls and the computer polls is with the Trojans (5-1), whose loss came at Oregon State (27-21) on Sept. 25. The human polls have them at No. 4 and No. 5 but the computers have USC at No. 10 because of a weak schedule that will only get weaker as the season goes along. But the human polls are now two-thirds of the formula. Let?s say the Trojans get in ahead of a 12-1 Florida team that beat LSU, Georgia, and Alabama and whose only loss was by one point to Ole Miss.
4. Utah or Boise State gets left out: Utah (8-0) of the Mountain West is No. 11 while Boise State (6-0) of the WAC is No. 12. If they go undefeated and hold or improve their current positions both would qualify for an at-large BCS berth. But according to the rules of the BCS only one can go because the rest of the at-large slots are reserved for the big boys. The five Coalition (non-BCS conferences) will fuss a little bit but not much. They had to fight too hard just to get a seat at the BCS table.
5. Big 12 gets hosed again: Last season the Big 12 had three teams ranked in the top eight of the final BCS Standings: No. 4 Oklahoma (11-2), No. 6 Missouri (11-2), and No. 8 Kansas (11-1). Because of the BCS rule that limits each conference to a maximum of two slots, No. 6 Missouri gets left out. This season it could be worse. If Texas loses to Oklahoma State on Saturday, Oklahoma State loses to Oklahoma on Nov. 29, and Oklahoma wins out, the Big 12 would have three 11-1 teams ranked in the top five or six. But under the rules, an 11-1 team ranked in the top five could miss a BCS bowl in favor of a lower ranked team from another conference. It happened last season when 9-3 Illinois went to the Rose Bowl. If Penn State beats Ohio State, then the last at-large bid will likely go to the 10-2 Buckeyes.
Tony Barnhart | Tuesday, October 21, 2008
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
It?s just for fun, but one of the things I like to do right after the first BCS Standings are released is look for what I call ?Doomsday Scenarios.? Those are potential outcomes that will drive the powers that be in college football, or at least some of them, absolutely crazy and spark cries for change in the post-season format for Division I-A football.
Here are some former Doomsday Scenarios that came true:
2000: Miami beats Florida State head to head during the regular season but finishes third behind the Seminoles in the final BCS Standings and gets shut out of the game. Florida State loses to Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl
2001: Nebraska played for the BCS championship but didn?t even win the Big 12. The Cornhuskers were embarrassed by Miami in the Rose Bowl.
2003: Southern Cal finishes No. 1 in both of the human polls but No. 3 in the BCS formula. LSU and Oklahoma play for the BCS championship and USC settles for the AP title. This game changed the BCS formula to weight it more heavily towards the human voters.
2004: Auburn wins the SEC championship at 12-0 and gets shut out of the BCS championship game.
What are the potential Doomsday Scenarios for this season? Here are just five:
1. Penn State gets left out: No. 1 Texas and No. 2 Alabama both finish 13-0 and win their respective conference championship games. Like Auburn in 2004, a 12-0 Penn State, which has not played a game since Nov. 22, finishes No. 3 because it played a weaker schedule. Joe Paterno, 81, is denied the chance to end his career with a national championship game. Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany, one of the strongest opponents to a four-team playoff, gets an earful from Paterno.
2. Alabama gets left out: The Crimson Tide has another second-half swoon Saturday night at Tennessee and needs a field goal at the buzzer to win 17-14. Penn State blows out Ohio State and the voters decide it is time for a change and move the Nittany Lions to No. 2 on Sunday. Penn State wins out. For the second time in five years an undefeated SEC team does not make the big game. SEC commissioner Mike Slive reintroduces his plan for a four-team playoff.
3. Southern Cal gets in, 12-1 SEC champ gets left out: The biggest disconnect between the human polls and the computer polls is with the Trojans (5-1), whose loss came at Oregon State (27-21) on Sept. 25. The human polls have them at No. 4 and No. 5 but the computers have USC at No. 10 because of a weak schedule that will only get weaker as the season goes along. But the human polls are now two-thirds of the formula. Let?s say the Trojans get in ahead of a 12-1 Florida team that beat LSU, Georgia, and Alabama and whose only loss was by one point to Ole Miss.
4. Utah or Boise State gets left out: Utah (8-0) of the Mountain West is No. 11 while Boise State (6-0) of the WAC is No. 12. If they go undefeated and hold or improve their current positions both would qualify for an at-large BCS berth. But according to the rules of the BCS only one can go because the rest of the at-large slots are reserved for the big boys. The five Coalition (non-BCS conferences) will fuss a little bit but not much. They had to fight too hard just to get a seat at the BCS table.
5. Big 12 gets hosed again: Last season the Big 12 had three teams ranked in the top eight of the final BCS Standings: No. 4 Oklahoma (11-2), No. 6 Missouri (11-2), and No. 8 Kansas (11-1). Because of the BCS rule that limits each conference to a maximum of two slots, No. 6 Missouri gets left out. This season it could be worse. If Texas loses to Oklahoma State on Saturday, Oklahoma State loses to Oklahoma on Nov. 29, and Oklahoma wins out, the Big 12 would have three 11-1 teams ranked in the top five or six. But under the rules, an 11-1 team ranked in the top five could miss a BCS bowl in favor of a lower ranked team from another conference. It happened last season when 9-3 Illinois went to the Rose Bowl. If Penn State beats Ohio State, then the last at-large bid will likely go to the 10-2 Buckeyes.
