Some half way stats

[Antonio]

* i grabbed from another informative site.
* Now i see why i love them 1-3 point dogs
* Will Vegas adjust?

Pro basketball teams are installed in the favorite's role because they are expected to win, and the points they are asked to 'lay' are meant to divide the betting action.
But how many of those favorites win the game outright, giving money-line bettors an opportunity to cash their tickets? That was the question posed to Las Vegas Sports Consultants oddsmaker Mike Seba.
"Historically, favorites win outright at about a 65 percent clip," Seba reported. This year is no exception, as the 'chalk' is winning 66 percent of the time without a spread involved."
The following month-by-month chart supports Seba's statement.
Month Chalk Record SU Percentage

October 14-3 82%

November 137-70 66%

December 129-71 65%

January 141-69 67%

February 26-17 60%

TOTAL 447-230 66%
Note: Numbers are based on closing Stardust line.

Pick'em games or games off the board were omitted.
Of course, most pro basketball bettors are accustomed to either laying or taking the points. In this case, numbers on the favorite covering the spread might amaze you as the All-Star break approaches.
We have divided the favorites into pointspread categories - both home and away - for this example.
It may surprise some to discover that small home favorites between one and 3 1/2 points are 41-59 (41%).
"That tells me that, in this particular situation, home court in the NBA is overvalued up to this point," said Seba. "Generally NBA home court advantage ranges between three and five points. Therefore, when you have a home favorite between one and three points you are actually asking the favorite to defeat the better team."
In addition, small road favorites between one and 3 1/2 points are 30-45 (40%). That's a combined 33 games under .500 for small favorites.
"Home teams getting between one and 3 1/2 points seem to be undervalued so far this season. That is a fairly significant trend, but again, we expect those numbers to level out closer to the .500 mark by the end of the season," concluded Seba.
Numbers on the 'chalk' don't improve much as the pointspread increases. Home favorites between 6 1/2 and nine points are 61-65 (48.4%), while home squads favored between 9 1/2 and 13 points are 37-47 (44%).
The only two pointspread categories to show a profit at home are between 3 1/2 and six points (80-67, for 54.4%) and over 13 1/2 points (11-9 for 55%).
It is interesting to note that the Lakers and Spurs are each 6-6 ATS as a home favorite over 9 1/2 points, while the Kings are 9-3 ATS in that category. That might reflect Sacramento's highest rated home court value (about five points).
Road favorites in the middle categories are doing much better, evidenced by a combined 56-44 mark (56%) in the 3 1/2 to nine-point range.
The following chart is a breakdown of how all 29 NBA teams fare in five different spread categories as a home and road favorite.
HOME FAVORITE
----1-3 3.5-6 6.5-9 9.5-13 13.5+

--------------------------------------

ATL 3- 2 0- 1 0- 1 0- 0 0- 0

BOS 1- 2 6- 3 2- 4 2- 2 0- 0

CHA 2- 5 1- 3 3- 1 0- 1 0- 0

CHI 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0

CLE 1- 2 2- 0 2- 0 0- 0 0- 0

DAL 1- 1 4- 1 3- 6 4- 2 0- 0

DEN 0- 1 1- 2 0- 1 0- 1 0- 0

DET 2- 3 3- 5 3- 1 0- 1 0- 0

GS 0- 3 2- 1 1- 0 0- 1 0- 0

HOU 1- 4 1- 2 1- 3 0- 0 0- 0

IND 2- 2 1- 2 1- 3 1- 3 0- 0

LAC 4- 1 6- 4 2- 3 1- 0 0- 1

LAK 0- 0 1- 1 7- 2 4- 3 2- 3

MIA 0- 6 2- 4 1- 0 1- 2 0- 0

MLW 1- 0 6- 3 1- 4 0- 3 0- 1

MIN 2- 1 3- 1 4- 2 1- 4 2- 1

NJ 2- 1 6- 4 3- 2 3- 1 0- 0

NY 0- 7 0- 5 1- 3 1- 2 0- 0

ORL 0- 1 6- 2 2- 3 1- 1 1- 1

PHI 2- 0 1- 3 4- 4 1- 2 0- 0

PHO 2- 2 2- 3 2- 2 4- 3 0- 0

POR 5- 3 1- 3 4- 4 0- 0 1- 1

SAC 0- 0 2- 1 5- 4 5- 2 4- 1

SA 0- 0 1- 0 4- 6 5- 6 1- 0

SEA 3- 5 5- 2 1- 0 2- 2 0- 0

TOR 0- 1 4- 4 2- 4 1- 3 0- 0

UTA 2- 3 8- 5 1- 1 0- 2 0- 0

MEM 1- 0 0- 1 1- 0 0- 0 0- 0

WAS 4- 3 5- 1 0- 1 0- 0 0- 0

WIN% 41.0 54.4 48.4 44.0 55.0
ROAD FAVORITE
---- 1-3 3.5-6 6.5-9 9.5-13 13.5+

--------------------------------------

ATL 0- 0 0- 1 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0

BOS 2- 2 1- 0 0- 1 0- 0 0- 0

CHA 1- 3 2- 0 1- 0 0- 1 0- 0

CHI 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0

CLE 0- 1 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0

DAL 1- 4 7- 1 2- 0 1- 0 0- 0

DEN 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0

DET 1- 1 2- 1 1- 0 0- 0 0- 0

GS 0- 0 1- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0

HOU 0- 3 0- 1 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0

IND 2- 0 1- 0 1- 0 0- 0 0- 0

LAC 0- 1 0- 2 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0

LAK 0- 2 6- 3 2- 2 2- 4 0- 0

MIA 0- 1 0- 3 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0

MLW 2- 0 0- 2 2- 1 0- 0 0- 0

MIN 3- 4 0- 4 2- 2 0- 0 0- 0

NJ 1- 7 1- 0 1- 0 0- 0 0- 0

NY 0- 0 0- 0 0- 1 0- 0 0- 0

ORL 1- 3 2- 0 3- 0 0- 0 0- 0

PHI 1- 1 1- 4 0- 0 1- 0 0- 0

PHO 0- 3 2- 1 1- 0 0- 0 0- 0

POR 2- 3 1- 2 1- 0 0- 0 0- 0

SAC 4- 1 0- 0 1- 1 0- 1 0- 0

SA 5- 4 3- 3 2- 0 0- 1 0- 0

SEA 2- 0 1- 1 1- 0 0- 0 0- 0

TOR 2- 1 1- 1 0- 1 0- 0 0- 0

UTA 0- 0 1- 3 0- 1 0- 0 0- 0

MEM 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0

WAS 0- 0 2- 0 0- 0 0- 0 0- 0

WIN% 40.0 51.5 67.7 36.4 0.0

 

[Antonio]

** Does Vegas know there numbers or what????
** Not a single trend u can use on your side that would make u any ca$h whatsoever.
** Must dig deeper!!!

Straight Up (Won Loss Tie)

Category Record Percent
Away Teams 279-410-0 40.49%
Home Teams 410-279-0 59.51%
Favorites 450-229-0 66.27%
Dogs 229-450-0 33.73%
Away Favorites 117-73-0 61.58%
Away Dogs 156-333-0 31.90%
Home Favorites 333-156-0 68.10%
Home Dogs 73-117-0 38.42%


Against The Spread (ATS)

Category Record Percent
Away Teams 349-328-12 51.55%
Home Teams 328-349-12 48.45%
Favorites 323-344-12 48.43%
Dogs 344-323-12 51.57%
Away Favorites 93-94-3 49.73%
Away Dogs 250-230-9 52.08%
Home Favorites 230-250-9 47.92%
Home Dogs 94-93-0 50.27%


Over vs. Under

Category Overs Percent Unders Percent
Non-Overtime Games 310 49.60% 315 50.40%
Overtime Games 34 75.56% 11 24.44%
All Games 344 51.34% 326 48.66%

 

[Antonio]

LAS VEGAS - Milwaukee Bucks coach George Karl recently ripped his team and its three superstars for lackadaisical play.

Gamblers might agree with Karl, as the Bucks are 1-9 ATS when laying six points or more at the Bradley Center.

The Bucks figure to be laying double-digits on Wednesday when they host Cleveland. The Cavaliers have covered seven of their last nine when taking 9 ? points or more.

It doesn't matter how many points the New York Knicks lay at home. They are a dismal 3-18 ATS when laying points at Madison Square Garden this season. The Knicks have covered just seven of their past 23 overall games.

The Houston Rockets are another bad home favorite, going 2-11 ATS laying points at the Compaq Center. The Rockets have failed to cover in eight of their last nine home games.

Trivia question: Who is the only player ranked in the top-20 in blocks, rebounds and steals? Answer: Detroit center Ben Wallace.

The Bulls, playing better under new coach Bill Cartwright, are 9-1 ATS when getting eight points or more. The Bulls may find themselves taking at least that many Wednesday when they play at Charlotte for their second game in two nights.

The Los Angeles Lakers will be without Shaquille O'Neal for at least their next four games. If you're looking to play against the Lakers on the money line, you might try it with a weak opponent.

Of the Lakers' 13 losses this season, six have occurred against teams with losing records. The Lakers actually may open as an underdog Thursday when they play in Seattle. The Sonics have defeated the Lakers in five of the last six meetings, with every victory being registered by at least eight points.

The Utah Jazz certainly welcomed the All-Star break because they are in the midst of a brutal nine-game road trip. The Jazz lost the first two games of the road swing, falling to Houston and Memphis.

Now, after a seven-day break, they play six road games in nine days. At least the first five opponents are from the Eastern Conference. Utah is 1-10 SU against the top five teams in the Western Conference.

On the injury front, the Lakers' O'Neal is expected to return to the lineup Feb. 19 against Boston. That's the first day he's eligible to come off the injured list.

Point guard Jason Williams and forward Lorenzen Wright are expected to return to the Memphis lineup for Tuesday's game against Houston.

Vince Carter may miss Toronto's next few games. He re-aggravated his left quad tendon in the Raptors' last game. Carter had a similar injury last season, which caused him to miss seven games.

There's also the possibility the Phoenix Suns could suspend point guard Stephon Marbury after he was arrested last Friday for driving under the influence.