some market thoughts and never doubt a 79 year old

[selkirk]

currently not bearish or bullish, could see us trade in a range. the market is not cheap but the end of the economic world is not at our doorstep either.

for myself will know where I stand after July have about a page and a half of options come due...most of them look good. a small correction in the financials would be great, but not sure that will happen.

gold is still good insurance, though do not get carried away, and have covered call on my golds, premiums are very good.

ag stocks may begin a pull back, not sure, however the question is fertlizer stocks hold price and volumes is a good one....be carefull, and after a nice run from lows would take some off the table.

will set back and see how the market reacts.

Last year picked up some firewood from my uncle. he had some dead trees and wanted to cut them down.

he worked over two days and told me there probably was not much there...also at first wondered if it would be a wasted trip, how much work can a 79 year old do anyways.

show up and it took three days to haul all the wood. the amount cut was impresive and all the wood was piled up and cut in neat piles.
the yard and home is well cared for, it looks like an army of ten have worked on it over the season.

went over the winter with him to the hospitals for check ups, eye, and he passed out at emerg. one time when he had to take my aunt in...

in the spring he thought he might have a cold. or worse. he could not do any yard work and helped him remove the hay off the lines...(called -40 below winters...lol).

anyways they found cancer in the liver, and one week later he is in the hospice.

not great news, but going to visit every chance I get....

still not a bad run, I mean even in his 79th year he could do more work than two or three people, heatlhy, active and strong, almost until the end...not bad at all.

thanks
selkirk

 

[IE]

will say a prayer, selkirk...

sounds like a remarkable person.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

--quite remarkable indeed--hopefully he can remain active and enjoy life to the end.

--on markets--have had quite a few sell on stops recently and not eager to buy back in and will do so slowly in increments when I do.
Kirk you wouldn't have rule of thumb you use to buy back in would you.

Example: you have stock you like and it sells at $10.00 --is there any # you use to buy back?

Strange times--good peforming companies at the mercy of market in general--and I'm not very optomistic of U.S. market in forseeable future.

 

[selkirk]

thanks IE, he is a remarkable person. doing better, and will experience little pain in his final days.

DTB after getting stopped out of a stock look at what the investment does,

1. if it goes down and is performing worse than the market, there is no reason to buy it back. at least any time soon.

you can compile information slowly.

2. after you sell the stock rallies would put a certain percentage, for example 20-25%, if this shows a profit then would consider putting more in the investment.

the amount can vary but probably would be know more than 25%, and would increase it over time, as long as the first investment shows a profit.

in 1999 I sold out most of my sci-tech fund, that was doing great, was worried about valuations.

went down the first two days, and then the rally came back, prices went back, nothing changed. so over the month invested back in, at 20-25% at a time. as long as each invesment showed me a gain. invested more to the orginal amount.

though I did miss out on 10%, was glad bought back in....

besides buying back in over time, you could also use options ie. calls and puts to get back a position, this can generate revenue, also...
will start an option thread to update the portfolio on options and a trade on how this can be done.


Potash missed estimates so it was a good idea to take some off the table.
my biggest holding is AGU and have 48 July calls on most of the position.

energy is still acting well, would be concerned if it corrected below 65.

DTB the market is acting well in the short term. you are correct there is plenty to be concerned.

though the market is still in a bullish mode, and good news is being rewarded and bad new ingnored. also companies are beating estimates that are and have been reduced.

also to get out of a debt crisis, is by re-inflating the economy...if it works the equity market may hold up rather well.

if it fails...not good.

resources are a bullsh play that the market will continue higher.

reducing ag. maintain avg. weighting in energy, and gold...(insurance).

thanks
selkirk