The game of baseball has changed allot over the last few years. There has been an offensive explosion due mainly to the dwindling pitching talent caused by expansion and ballparks that are much smaller and easier to hit the ball out of!
With the trend of high scoring games also attributable to the severe decline in bullpen quality it is much harder to handicap baseball. In the past before all of this all you had to do mainly was study pitching matchups and batting statistics and you could do a decent job capping bases.
Unfortunately it isn't that simple anymore just looking at starting pitching can't come close to comparing two teams, mainly because the fact that starters only last about 5 innings a game and then you have to rely on a bunch of guys that can't make it as starters to protect your lead! There have already been several examples of this in the very young season this year.
Another thing that few people look at when betting baseball is the home plate umpire, yes that's right the home plate umpire! Believe it or not there are several umpires that favor the home or visiting teams, they also have a list of umpires with smaller strike zones that tend to lean to the over and vice versa on a large strike zone. There are a couple of sites that have these statistics www.covers.com being one of my personal favorites.
The umpire is the only one that is in control of the game he calls all the strikes and balls after all and can be a very large factor in determining the outcome and even more important the total.
The umpires are not factored into the line or total when the books make the line so knowing how each of them tends to call games can give you an edge over the books. Just for one example is John Hirschbeck he has a very large strike zone and games that he is behind home plate tend to go under, on the other end of the spectrum are umps that have very small strike zones they tend to go over in large part because they call allot more balls if you can get an ump like this with a pitcher like Randy Johnson or Curt Schilling you can have a big advantage because of their control and ability to throw strikes.
Another factor you might want to consider when betting baseball is the parks themselves and their locations. Coors Field is in the thin air of Colorado and the ball tends to travel much farther so if you know your pitchers and get a couple of guys that give up allot of fly balls the over could be a very safe bet.
In contrast Chicago's winds can effect the total when the wind is blowing in to home plate it is very hard to get one out of the park.
Baseball is also a game of streaks teams will get hot for a few games and if you catch them just right they can be very profitable look at Seattle last year if I am not mistaken they went on a 13 game win streak, so keep an eye out for those hot teams and take advantage of that especially if you are on the fence about a game.
I like to bet small favorites and dogs but I also see games where the big favorites have value, the way I do this is I will take two big favorites that I am very confident in I will put them together in a two team parlay this will bring the odds back down to about even in most cases. And I win with them much more than I lose.
Well just thought I would put some of my thoughts on baseball handicapping down hope I didn't bore anyone to much and if I can help anyone it is all worth it.
With the trend of high scoring games also attributable to the severe decline in bullpen quality it is much harder to handicap baseball. In the past before all of this all you had to do mainly was study pitching matchups and batting statistics and you could do a decent job capping bases.
Unfortunately it isn't that simple anymore just looking at starting pitching can't come close to comparing two teams, mainly because the fact that starters only last about 5 innings a game and then you have to rely on a bunch of guys that can't make it as starters to protect your lead! There have already been several examples of this in the very young season this year.
Another thing that few people look at when betting baseball is the home plate umpire, yes that's right the home plate umpire! Believe it or not there are several umpires that favor the home or visiting teams, they also have a list of umpires with smaller strike zones that tend to lean to the over and vice versa on a large strike zone. There are a couple of sites that have these statistics www.covers.com being one of my personal favorites.
The umpire is the only one that is in control of the game he calls all the strikes and balls after all and can be a very large factor in determining the outcome and even more important the total.
The umpires are not factored into the line or total when the books make the line so knowing how each of them tends to call games can give you an edge over the books. Just for one example is John Hirschbeck he has a very large strike zone and games that he is behind home plate tend to go under, on the other end of the spectrum are umps that have very small strike zones they tend to go over in large part because they call allot more balls if you can get an ump like this with a pitcher like Randy Johnson or Curt Schilling you can have a big advantage because of their control and ability to throw strikes.
Another factor you might want to consider when betting baseball is the parks themselves and their locations. Coors Field is in the thin air of Colorado and the ball tends to travel much farther so if you know your pitchers and get a couple of guys that give up allot of fly balls the over could be a very safe bet.
In contrast Chicago's winds can effect the total when the wind is blowing in to home plate it is very hard to get one out of the park.
Baseball is also a game of streaks teams will get hot for a few games and if you catch them just right they can be very profitable look at Seattle last year if I am not mistaken they went on a 13 game win streak, so keep an eye out for those hot teams and take advantage of that especially if you are on the fence about a game.
I like to bet small favorites and dogs but I also see games where the big favorites have value, the way I do this is I will take two big favorites that I am very confident in I will put them together in a two team parlay this will bring the odds back down to about even in most cases. And I win with them much more than I lose.
Well just thought I would put some of my thoughts on baseball handicapping down hope I didn't bore anyone to much and if I can help anyone it is all worth it.
