Despite first-round losses in their respective conference tournaments, Texas (22-6 straight up, 15-8-1 against the spread) and Florida (24-7 SU, 12-15 ATS) grabbed the top two seeds in the South region.
The Longhorns were slotted in the top spot, scheduled to meet the winner of the play-in game between UNC Asheville (14-16 SU) and Texas Southern, (18-12 SU) who will collide in Dayton Tuesday night.
The winner will face Rick Barnes' team in Birmingham. Expect a number for this matchup to be released Tuesday night. Neither squad has played a lined game this season.
Texas dropped a 92-81 decision to Texas Tech in the first round of the Big XII Tournament. The loss came as a seven-point favorite.
Assuming the Longhorns advance (no top seed has ever lost to a 16 seed), they will play the winner of the 8-9 showdown between LSU (21-10 SU, 15-10 ATS) and Purdue (18-10 SU, 13-13 ATS). The Tigers have been nasty against the number in recent weeks, compiling a 10-2 ATS mark in their last 12 outings.
Ronald Dupree has led LSU to a 10-2 ATS record in the last 12 games. (AP)
John Brady's team could be dangerous, with a special player in Ronald Dupree (16.0 PPG). The senior slasher is capable of carrying a team and hitting key shots at crunch time. LSU is a senior-laded team that has gelled at the right time, winning seven of its last eight games. Three of the victims were Tournament teams -- Alabama, Auburn and Florida.
Gene Keady's club stumbled down the stretch. The Boilermakers are in the midst of a 3-6 slide both SU and ATS. The 'under' is 10-4 in Purdue games.
Expect LSU to beat Purdue and pose a serious threat to the top-seeded Longhorns in the second round. Remember, Dupree and Co. upset Arizona in Baton Rouge earlier this year. Let's not forget a number of upsets by eighth seeds in recent years, including UCLA's win over Cincinnati last season.
Wisconsin advanced all the way to the Final Four as an eighth seed three years ago. Lest we forget, Dale Brown led this same program to the Final Four in 1984 as a No. 11.
Can Matt Walsh and the Gators shake off a three-game losing streak?(AP)
Most felt the Gators had slipped to at least a No. 3 seed after a loss to LSU in the SEC Tournament, not to mention a pair of setbacks (at Georgia and vs. Kentucky) to close the regular season. However, UF not only catches a break with a second seed, but it also gets to play its first two games in Tampa, which is the home of a huge alumni fan base. Apparently, non-conference wins over Maryland and Kansas proved beneficial for Billy Donovan's program.
Nevertheless, a three-games losing streak doesn't bode well for UF, which is only 1-3 both SU and ATS in Tournament games since advancing to the finals in 2000. Sam Houston State is the 15th seed in the South, and it will oppose the Gators as a 19-point underdog.
Gamblers should be aware of an injury to UF's best player, Matt Bonner. The senior power forward is suffering from plantar fasciitis, a foot injury. He'll play Friday but the true test will come in the second round with only 48 hours rest.
The 7-10 matchup in the South is a beauty, as Michigan State (19-12 SU, 15-14 ATS) and Colorado (20-11 SU, 14-13 ATS) are slated to do battle. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Spartans as four-point favorites.
Tom Izzo's team suffered a 55-54 loss to Ohio State in the semifinals of the Big Ten Tournament. The outright defeat came as a six-point 'chalk.' Prior to the loss to the Buckeyes, Michigan State won five in a row both SU and ATS. The 'under' is 12-7 in Michigan State's last 19 games with a total.
The Spartans and Gators have hooked up three times in the last three years, with Izzo's squad covering the number in each encounter. The Gators did manage an ouright win over MSU in Gainesville last season, but they allowed the Spartans to post a backdoor cover.
CU won four consecutive games before getting dropped by Oklahoma in the Big XII Tourney, 74-59. The Buffaloes are 8-5 ATS in their last 13 games, but they have lost three in a row against the number. Another important note on CU: It was only 1-7 SU in Big XII road games, with the lone win coming in Waco against a pitiful Baylor squad.
The Spartans and Buffaloes will play in Tampa.
Xavier (25-5 SU, 12-13 ATS) is the No. 3 seed in the South. It will square off against the No. 14 seed, Troy State, which is making its first appearance in the Big Dance after capturing the Atlantic Sun Tournament title.
Xavier has lost four of its last five games ATS. (AP)
The Trojans' best win of the year came at Arkansas. They lost by 28 at Auburn in their only lined game as a five-point underdog. Don Maestri's club utilizes a high-octane pressing system similar to Paul Westhead's Loyola Marymount teams of the late 1980s.
If the Muskateers can get past Troy State's run-and-gun style, they could face the defending national champions in a second-round machup in Nashville. Maryland (19-9 SU, 10-15 ATS) is the No. 6 seed, with a difficult first-round draw.
The Terrapins will play UNC Wilmington (24-6 SU, 15-7 ATS), which knocked off Southern Cal in the first round last year before giving eventual runner-up Indiana all it wanted. The Seahawks are led by Brett Blizzard, one of the best-kept secrets in the country.
Blizzard (21.0 points per game) is the three-time Player of the Year in the Colonial. This Tallahassee, Fla., product can drain 3-balls as well as any player in the country. He has guided UNCW to a 3-1 spread record in the underdog role. The Seahawks have covered the number in seven of their last eight games.
Gary Williams' club has the type of team to make another deep run. The Terps own a ton of Tournament experience and a veteran backcourt with Drew Nicholas and Steve Blake. Look for this Maryland-UNC-W matchup to be one of the best games of the first round.
Most sports books were listing the Terps as eight-point favorites late Sunday night, with a total due out later in the week.The 'over' is 7-2 in Maryland's last nine games.
Four South region teams will spend this weekend in Spokane, Wash. Fourth-seeded Stanford (23-8 SU, 18-12-1) will meet the WCC Tournament champions, 13th-seeded San Diego (18-11 SU, 11-12 ATS).
The Cardinal own the 23rd-best spread record in the country among 233 board teams. Mike Montgomery's squad has been especially dangerous in the underdog role, with an 8-3 ATS mark.
The Toreros took advantage of playing their conference tourney at home, knocking off Gonzaga in the finals by a 72-63 count. This is San Diego's first NCAA Tournament berth since 1987. It went 2-5 SU against teams in this year's field.
Stanford is favored by seven.
The 5-12 game in the South region will pit Connecticut (21-9 SU, 13-12 ATS) versus BYU (23-8 SU, 19-10 ATS). The Huskies are 5-2 ATS in their last seven outings, while the 'under' has compiled a 5-1 mark in their last six games.
The Cougars are ranked sixth in the nation in our ATS rankings. They were listed as four-point underdogs Monday morning.
How I see it...
Maryland is a team that many are claiming as a sleeper to advance to New Orleans for the Final Four. However, I'm not so sure the defending champs get past the Colonial champs. Xavier had a great season, and the Muskateers have a premier post player in David West. Nonetheless, I see this No. 3 seed getting the boot at some point this weekend.
Florida has its concerns, but something tells me the Gators will right the ship in Tampa. A big key for UF is keeping David Lee out of foul trouble. This sophomore center has played extremely well recently, but his foul trouble woes were a killer in the loss to LSU. There is concern that freshmen Matt Walsh and Anthony Roberson have hit the wall, but the Gators should have fresh legs after another early exit at the SEC Tournament.
Texas knows it will meet a red-hot club if LSU gets past Purdue. Don't expect LSU point guard Torris Bright to back down against T.J. Ford. Bright has faced many of the best points guards in the country already this year, including Jason Gardner, Mo Williams and Derrick Zimmerman.
Discussing a UConn-Stanford matchup would be premature because both teams have their hands full with BYU and San Diego. The Cougars own five wins over teams in the Tourament.
It's all about surviving and advancing in this Tournament. Once you get to the Sweet 16, it's all about desire and execution.
Led by their trio of seniors, I like the Gators to derail UNC-Wilmington in a Sweet 16 matchup in San Antonio. In addition, the Longhorns will survive a war with UConn.
In the Elite Eight matchup, I like UF's chances to neutralize Ford with defensive specialist Justin Hamilton, who has already stymied stars such as Blake, Kirk Hinrich and Ezra Williams this season.
Billy Donovan owns an 8-4 record in NCAA Tournament games. The Gators posted a 6-4 record against Big Dance teams, not to mention a win over Georgia. Two of the four setbacks came to top-seeded Kentucky. I like UF to cut the nets down in San Antonio.
The Longhorns were slotted in the top spot, scheduled to meet the winner of the play-in game between UNC Asheville (14-16 SU) and Texas Southern, (18-12 SU) who will collide in Dayton Tuesday night.
The winner will face Rick Barnes' team in Birmingham. Expect a number for this matchup to be released Tuesday night. Neither squad has played a lined game this season.
Texas dropped a 92-81 decision to Texas Tech in the first round of the Big XII Tournament. The loss came as a seven-point favorite.
Assuming the Longhorns advance (no top seed has ever lost to a 16 seed), they will play the winner of the 8-9 showdown between LSU (21-10 SU, 15-10 ATS) and Purdue (18-10 SU, 13-13 ATS). The Tigers have been nasty against the number in recent weeks, compiling a 10-2 ATS mark in their last 12 outings.
Ronald Dupree has led LSU to a 10-2 ATS record in the last 12 games. (AP)
John Brady's team could be dangerous, with a special player in Ronald Dupree (16.0 PPG). The senior slasher is capable of carrying a team and hitting key shots at crunch time. LSU is a senior-laded team that has gelled at the right time, winning seven of its last eight games. Three of the victims were Tournament teams -- Alabama, Auburn and Florida.
Gene Keady's club stumbled down the stretch. The Boilermakers are in the midst of a 3-6 slide both SU and ATS. The 'under' is 10-4 in Purdue games.
Expect LSU to beat Purdue and pose a serious threat to the top-seeded Longhorns in the second round. Remember, Dupree and Co. upset Arizona in Baton Rouge earlier this year. Let's not forget a number of upsets by eighth seeds in recent years, including UCLA's win over Cincinnati last season.
Wisconsin advanced all the way to the Final Four as an eighth seed three years ago. Lest we forget, Dale Brown led this same program to the Final Four in 1984 as a No. 11.
Can Matt Walsh and the Gators shake off a three-game losing streak?(AP)
Most felt the Gators had slipped to at least a No. 3 seed after a loss to LSU in the SEC Tournament, not to mention a pair of setbacks (at Georgia and vs. Kentucky) to close the regular season. However, UF not only catches a break with a second seed, but it also gets to play its first two games in Tampa, which is the home of a huge alumni fan base. Apparently, non-conference wins over Maryland and Kansas proved beneficial for Billy Donovan's program.
Nevertheless, a three-games losing streak doesn't bode well for UF, which is only 1-3 both SU and ATS in Tournament games since advancing to the finals in 2000. Sam Houston State is the 15th seed in the South, and it will oppose the Gators as a 19-point underdog.
Gamblers should be aware of an injury to UF's best player, Matt Bonner. The senior power forward is suffering from plantar fasciitis, a foot injury. He'll play Friday but the true test will come in the second round with only 48 hours rest.
The 7-10 matchup in the South is a beauty, as Michigan State (19-12 SU, 15-14 ATS) and Colorado (20-11 SU, 14-13 ATS) are slated to do battle. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Spartans as four-point favorites.
Tom Izzo's team suffered a 55-54 loss to Ohio State in the semifinals of the Big Ten Tournament. The outright defeat came as a six-point 'chalk.' Prior to the loss to the Buckeyes, Michigan State won five in a row both SU and ATS. The 'under' is 12-7 in Michigan State's last 19 games with a total.
The Spartans and Gators have hooked up three times in the last three years, with Izzo's squad covering the number in each encounter. The Gators did manage an ouright win over MSU in Gainesville last season, but they allowed the Spartans to post a backdoor cover.
CU won four consecutive games before getting dropped by Oklahoma in the Big XII Tourney, 74-59. The Buffaloes are 8-5 ATS in their last 13 games, but they have lost three in a row against the number. Another important note on CU: It was only 1-7 SU in Big XII road games, with the lone win coming in Waco against a pitiful Baylor squad.
The Spartans and Buffaloes will play in Tampa.
Xavier (25-5 SU, 12-13 ATS) is the No. 3 seed in the South. It will square off against the No. 14 seed, Troy State, which is making its first appearance in the Big Dance after capturing the Atlantic Sun Tournament title.
Xavier has lost four of its last five games ATS. (AP)
The Trojans' best win of the year came at Arkansas. They lost by 28 at Auburn in their only lined game as a five-point underdog. Don Maestri's club utilizes a high-octane pressing system similar to Paul Westhead's Loyola Marymount teams of the late 1980s.
If the Muskateers can get past Troy State's run-and-gun style, they could face the defending national champions in a second-round machup in Nashville. Maryland (19-9 SU, 10-15 ATS) is the No. 6 seed, with a difficult first-round draw.
The Terrapins will play UNC Wilmington (24-6 SU, 15-7 ATS), which knocked off Southern Cal in the first round last year before giving eventual runner-up Indiana all it wanted. The Seahawks are led by Brett Blizzard, one of the best-kept secrets in the country.
Blizzard (21.0 points per game) is the three-time Player of the Year in the Colonial. This Tallahassee, Fla., product can drain 3-balls as well as any player in the country. He has guided UNCW to a 3-1 spread record in the underdog role. The Seahawks have covered the number in seven of their last eight games.
Gary Williams' club has the type of team to make another deep run. The Terps own a ton of Tournament experience and a veteran backcourt with Drew Nicholas and Steve Blake. Look for this Maryland-UNC-W matchup to be one of the best games of the first round.
Most sports books were listing the Terps as eight-point favorites late Sunday night, with a total due out later in the week.The 'over' is 7-2 in Maryland's last nine games.
Four South region teams will spend this weekend in Spokane, Wash. Fourth-seeded Stanford (23-8 SU, 18-12-1) will meet the WCC Tournament champions, 13th-seeded San Diego (18-11 SU, 11-12 ATS).
The Cardinal own the 23rd-best spread record in the country among 233 board teams. Mike Montgomery's squad has been especially dangerous in the underdog role, with an 8-3 ATS mark.
The Toreros took advantage of playing their conference tourney at home, knocking off Gonzaga in the finals by a 72-63 count. This is San Diego's first NCAA Tournament berth since 1987. It went 2-5 SU against teams in this year's field.
Stanford is favored by seven.
The 5-12 game in the South region will pit Connecticut (21-9 SU, 13-12 ATS) versus BYU (23-8 SU, 19-10 ATS). The Huskies are 5-2 ATS in their last seven outings, while the 'under' has compiled a 5-1 mark in their last six games.
The Cougars are ranked sixth in the nation in our ATS rankings. They were listed as four-point underdogs Monday morning.
How I see it...
Maryland is a team that many are claiming as a sleeper to advance to New Orleans for the Final Four. However, I'm not so sure the defending champs get past the Colonial champs. Xavier had a great season, and the Muskateers have a premier post player in David West. Nonetheless, I see this No. 3 seed getting the boot at some point this weekend.
Florida has its concerns, but something tells me the Gators will right the ship in Tampa. A big key for UF is keeping David Lee out of foul trouble. This sophomore center has played extremely well recently, but his foul trouble woes were a killer in the loss to LSU. There is concern that freshmen Matt Walsh and Anthony Roberson have hit the wall, but the Gators should have fresh legs after another early exit at the SEC Tournament.
Texas knows it will meet a red-hot club if LSU gets past Purdue. Don't expect LSU point guard Torris Bright to back down against T.J. Ford. Bright has faced many of the best points guards in the country already this year, including Jason Gardner, Mo Williams and Derrick Zimmerman.
Discussing a UConn-Stanford matchup would be premature because both teams have their hands full with BYU and San Diego. The Cougars own five wins over teams in the Tourament.
It's all about surviving and advancing in this Tournament. Once you get to the Sweet 16, it's all about desire and execution.
Led by their trio of seniors, I like the Gators to derail UNC-Wilmington in a Sweet 16 matchup in San Antonio. In addition, the Longhorns will survive a war with UConn.
In the Elite Eight matchup, I like UF's chances to neutralize Ford with defensive specialist Justin Hamilton, who has already stymied stars such as Blake, Kirk Hinrich and Ezra Williams this season.
Billy Donovan owns an 8-4 record in NCAA Tournament games. The Gators posted a 6-4 record against Big Dance teams, not to mention a win over Georgia. Two of the four setbacks came to top-seeded Kentucky. I like UF to cut the nets down in San Antonio.
