Southeast Conference West Division Forecast
1. ALABAMA
Coaching and Team
Who else would you want to coach your team, a master recruiter with national championship success? Yes, we?re talking about Nick Saban (111-50-1)down at Alabama who finished last year with a stellar 12-2 mark. He?s turned the trick again with back-to-back outstanding recruiting seasons placing his University in solid position to win the glass bowl. No doubt there will be many detractors as little Nicky must face the huge shadow of Florida and the high flying Rebels of Mississippi to take the Southeastern Conference title. That is step #1 in the process. Step #2 may not be as difficult as we have a host of schools in our Super-7 and other talented programs trying to reach the big game.
Look, Florida won their second BCS Championship under Urban Meyer last season. Of course, thrilled with that forecast, we knee-jerked ahead projecting the Urban and Timmy Legend would accrue back-to-back dividends. The defense has around 20 starters with outstanding backups who could start for any school in the country. The Gators defeated Oklahoma because of two goal line stands, stuffing the Sooners like card board at the line of scrimmage. But, any school, after such a successful run must overcome the projected mental lapses, on the field, when being so highly touted. Alabama, on the other hand, has lost some keys to last year, but their main concern will be the starting quarterback position of which I think (from what I?ve seen on tape and ESPN) Greg McElroy has the arm and intellect to shock the opposition. QB McElroy looked awesome in the spring game and so did the offense in spots. Critical on offense is the center and tackle positions. This spring, HC Saban was on the field to insure the energy was there on every play. His horror story at Alabama was the recent shellacking by Utah in the Sugar Bowl. If you recall, LSU (Saban) was upset by Iowa when the attention of the program was focused on their coach going to the NFL. So, you can expect the heat to be on the Kent State graduate (Saban) to win a national championship this time around. For sure, a favorable schedule is a major key.
Scheduling and Point Spread Observations
The Crimson Tide caught a major break in their overall scheduling in 2009. However, there are some land mines starting with their road and season opener at Blacksburg against the up and coming Hokies. If you recall, last season Saban caught Clemson flat in a 34-10 road whipping in Death Valley (ACC). This time around Alabama will face a well prepared Virginia Tech that can score on defense and special teams. After that encounter, the schedule falls off with the next big game being on October 10th against Ole Miss down in Mississippi. Actually, a BCS Championship game slot could be on the line. After, the Tide will have three home games against South Carolina, Tennessee and LSU. Alabama ends the season in the Iron Bowl against Auburn on the road. However, the week before the War Eagles, the Tide catches UT Chattanooga as a major schedule break. Critical, we find Georgia and Florida not on the Alabama schedule. This is a huge plus for Saban who can roll into the SEC title game without a conference loss, if they can handle Ole Miss and Auburn on the road. November 7th at LSU could be a major upset on the Crimson Tide run to a national title, if they escape, look out!
2. Ole Miss
Coaching
Houston Nutt is in his second year at Ole Miss and the stellar coach has put together a combined record of 89-58. The Rebels finished their last campaign with a smashing 9-4 record and a 47-34 defeat of Big-12 upstart Texas Tech (-4) accumulating over 500 total yards of offense. It was the best season for Mississippi dating back to the 10-3 mark in 2003. We should all remember that Nutt was the SEC coach of the year in 2006, so don?t sell the charismatic leader short, especially with 16 starters returning, 8 on offense and 8 on defense.
Team
The leader of the offense former Texas recruit QB Jevan Snead (2,762) had a super season at Oxford throwing for 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He returns as a starter along with running keys Dexter McCluster (697), Cordera Eason (66) and Brandon Bolden (565). Their biggest loss on offense was receiver Mike Wallace but, Shay Hodge and a host of returnees are set to take up the slack. This unit has speed to burn and will cause havoc in the SEC this year. The Rebels have a solid experienced offensive line with the exception of left tackle, where most likely, a RSF will be burning his knuckles. In 2008 the offensive unit averaged 32 points a game up from 20 points a game in 2007. On defense, we find another emerging unit that should not be undersold because of their previous schedule. The ?D? held the last four regular season opponents to an average of 5 points per game, two of those games were versus Auburn and LSU. Ole Miss reversed their defensive fortunes by stopping the run holding opponents to just 2.7 yards per carry down from 4.7 in 2007. Now, if they refrain from allowing the big plays which hurt them in the SEC games, they could steal the SEC and maybe a national championship, like some are predicting. The Rebels are experienced with Shene and Sparks in the kicking game and depth and speed on special teams. Yes, this is one loaded football team.
Schedule and Point Spread Observations
Most likely the critical group of games for Ole Miss will come at South Carolina, at Vanderbilt and home versus the Crimson Tide. These battles start September 24th and run three consecutive weekends. The Rebels lost those encounters last year by a combined 17 points and represent major revenge games in 2009. The Rebels play Tennessee this season for the first time since 2005, but more important, the very next week LSU comes visiting. The Tigers will look to avenge a 31-13 beating last year in Baton Rouge. If the Tigers are getting points, they maybe a solid play. Invariably, this SEC unit can carve out an 11 win season, if the breaks go their way.
3. Louisiana State University
Coaching
Les Miles has shown he has strong character, a family man much like his mentor from Michigan good old ?Bo.? But, in the SEC the name of the game is winning and the stress level is assuredly growing everyday now with the new ESPN contract. Seemingly, Miles hears the questions and comparisons to Nick Saban coach of Alabama. When at LSU (48-16) ?Little Nicky? restored the winning attitude? to the program and improved the communications through super recruiter Larry Cunningham. The majority of Saban?s recruits are gone, but the skeptics still have questions. Maybe they should check out Saban?s on the field adjustments versus Utah in the Sugar Bowl last year for a real prime time evaluation. Les Miles has won a BCS Title and is 4-0 in bowl games at LSU. Georgia Tech was overmatched last season at the line of scrimmage in the Chick-fil-A Bowl by the Tigers fronts, another chalk in the post season bit the dust. Miles is 70-32 showing up for his 5th year at Baton Rouge after an 8-5 campaign with the Tigers. The major coaching change came at DC where long time Tennessee assistant John Chavis was hired away to take charge of the LSU defense. As far as we know the defense has been improved based on Miles? comments.
Team
Now a sophomore, QB Jordan Jefferson, excited all the LSU backers in the bowl win over Georgia Tech. The kid passed for 142 yards (16/25) and ran for 25 more. Jefferson did not throw an interception or fumble the football, a major accomplishment for a true frosh in a big time game. He has support this season with RB Charles Scott (1,208) back in the fold, along with Williams, Murphy, Ridley and Holliday. The receiving corpse in loaded again with senior Brandon LaFell, TE Richard Dickson, Terrance Toliver and true frosh Rueben Randle (#1 rated receiver in the country). Further, the Tigers will have additional skill with the #1 ranked athlete and dual quarterback in the country Russell Shepard. The youngster from Texas will most likely receive playing time out of the ?Wild Tiger? formation. So, overall with 7 starters returning on offense, depth on the line, and true skill being added to offense, the point production should improve over the 30.9 per game in 2009. Defensively, there should be at least 7 starters returning and now with DC Chavis the unit is understandably crafted with changing guidelines. Since Chad Jones is fully blessed as a starting safety the unit should gain more confidence with his bone crushing tackles almost every down. Our worriment is on the defensive line and the line backing group. We have heard DC Chavis will have these units playing in better position and an aggressive type defense? However, one of my complaints about Chavis at UT was that his corners played too far off the ball, allowing a skilled passer to move the chains effectively. As far as special teams, Trindon Holliday will be running back punts and kicks, along with Chad Jones, so this unit will have big play ability. But, there is no quality replacement for place kicker Colt David who was 16-21 in field goals and 43-44 in extra points last year. The punting game should be okay.
Scheduling and Point Spread Observations
If you thought the Tigers had a chance to win the West, think again. They must travel to both Alabama and Ole Miss this season, not only that, but after the Rebels encounter they return home to face Arkansas who has tormented the Tigers the last two years winning 50-48 (OT) and 31-30. In between are games at Georgia and a revenge game at Death Valley versus #1 Florida. At this writing, like the Tigers plus any points in Baton Rouge on October 10th when the Gators and QB Tim Tebow come calling.
4. Arkansas
Coaching
Bobby Petrino had a short stay at Big East power Louisville. However, reflecting on the changeover to the pressure cooker of the SEC, while replacing Houston Nutt, I still like what the maligned mentor executed in his first season down in Fayetteville. With the prior administration?s recruits, current support and a change in scheme the Razorbacks concluded 2008 with a 5-7 mark and a 31-30 upset of LSU. Petrino has a super offensive background leading to a 46-16 coaching mark in his career. This season Arkansas brings back 50 lettermen.
Team
Former Michigan QB Ryan Mallet will most likely be the starting helmsmen this year for the ?Hogs. The 6-7 and 245 pound athlete must first prove himself both on and off the field. His bout with public intoxication did not help his case, but the kid has talent and should eventually earn the starting berth. The early practice reports have Petrino working on Mallet?s foot work. Overall, the offense is ?loaded? with the fierce RB Michael Smith (1,119) returning for his senior season. In addition there are RSF and transfers on board to add depth and talent to a solid group. If the offensive line improves over last season the 21.9 points per game average from last season should improve greatly. Lucas Miller (490) and Joseph Adams (377) were key leaders from the wide receiver group, but Petrino has 9 qualify players in the program that can play outside and in the slot. D. J. Williams (723) will once again be the starting tight end and is a solid individual. There are 8 returning starters offensively with 3 seniors on deck. Defensively, the ?Hogs bring 9 starters back to the fold. This unit allowed 31.2 points per game last year and 4.4 yards per carry, while giving way time of possession to opposing offenses. With a more experienced defense and special teams the ?Hogs should improve. If Arkansas goes to a bowl game, they will be dancing in Fayetteville.
Schedule and Point Spread Observations
Bobby Petrino was handed no easy task when he moved to Arkansas, especially after peeling back the 2009 schedule. His SEC road games are at Alabama, Florida, Mississippi and LSU. Oh, his first SEC home game Georgia. With the change over in the quarterback position, I would wait a few games to seriously test Arkansas in Las Vegas. Look at October 3rd when the ?Hogs travel to Arlington to play Texas A&M in a non-conference showdown. Arkansas will be coming off a road game at Alabama, while the Aggies will be showing off a softy. If the ?Hogs are getting, we are taking the points.
5. Auburn
Coaching
Gene Chizik is 5-19 is his short coaching career, while sowing his oats at Iowa State. Chizik did not have much talent at ISU, but failed to exactly set the world on fire either. Now he jumps into the world of SEC football where losing is not acceptable in most every program. Chizik is the former assistant to Tommy Tuberville (Auburn) and once led the 2004 defensive unit to the #1 ranking in points allowed. Still, he has the complete responsibility of bringing back the War Eagles after a 5-7 season. Good Luck!
Team
After the Tony Franklin offensive experience, Chizik was smart to hire OC Gus Malzahn. With 7 starters returning this unit needs to improve on their horrid national ranking (#104) and their 18 points per game in 2008. QB Kodi Burns is a junior, so I can?t envision the upper classmen being moved out of position. The running game is solid with senior Ben Tate (718) and outstanding depth. The offensive line will be full of experience and littered with upper classmen. So, I believe you will see a huge jump in their 3.5 yards per carry from last season. Of course, the major problems scoring points last season came throwing the football averaging just165 yards per game. My guess is Tommy Trott will be a key this season in their new scheme (H-Back). On defense, I really like what AU has going, an athletic dominating defensive line and linebackers. JUCO Eltoro Freeman has found his place at linebacker solidifying a questionable unit. Recall the defense was ranked #29 last season. Again, the secondary is full of experience and should improve on their 179 yards allowed per game. If junior safety Mike McNeil is healthy, this could round out one of the top four defenses in the SEC. Special teams could be a real question mark with the lack of a quality place-kicker at this writing. If, Auburn does have a winning campaign Chizik will deserve much credit.
Schedule and Point Spread Observations
On September 26th Auburn faces a visiting MAC club, Ball State, between a home game with West Virginia and their first SEC road game at Tennessee. Most likely, we will see double digits. If you are playing, the early season observation says to take the generous points. Oh, don?t forget the Iron Bowl the Crimson Tide mangled the War Eagles last season 36-0.
6. Mississippi State
Coaching
Hopefully, the former Bulldogs mentor, Sylvester Croom, has moved on to greener pastures because the gentleman had one difficult task down in Starkville. In 2007 MSU put together a nice 8-5 season, winning the Liberty Bowl against UCF 10-3 to complete the campaign. Hopes were high last year, but the 4-8 finish completed the run at Mississippi State for Sylvester Croom. They lost the final game of the season to in-state rival Ole Miss 45-0. New mentor Dan Mullen will try his hand at college coaching for the first time after working for Urban Meyer and Dennis Franchione. Good Luck!
Team
I am pretty sure Dan Mullen expected to have his ?offense? in the lineup practicing this fall and of course, I am referring to RB Anthony Dixon. However, Dixon was arrested in July for ?driving under the influence.? So, we don?t know at this writing his status for this early season or what his availability will be at all to the football team. No matter, the Bulldogs start the season with six returning letters on offense, including Dixon (869). With the change over in the quarterback position last year we have no idea who will run the show this time around. This is a group that could push the scrimmage line for only 3.1 yards per carry running the football, that is why Dixon?s numbers where so incredible. In addition, the OL gave into 36 sacks with the help of indecisions by the QB position. On defense, the deal becomes real dicey as there will just 4 starters returning from a year ago. How Mullen handles this side of the ball will determine is starting point at MSU. Last year, the Bulldogs lost four games by 25 or more points. MSU has an interesting contrast on defense, a smallish defensive line, big linebackers and a small secondary. However, we understand the JUCO transfers are very talented and should improve the overall ability of the stop troops. Unfortunately, special teams at Mississippi State continue to be just average, but Mullen is looking to upgrade this aspect of the football team.
Schedule and Point Spread Observations
If Mississippi State wins three games, it will be a huge surprise to most observers, especially considering they matriculate in the jacked up west division of the SEC. From the point spread perspective, a very bad spot for the Bulldogs will be November 21st when they travel to Little Rock to face Arkansas. Last season MSU defeated 31-28 at Starkville. Revenge? You bet!
1. ALABAMA
Coaching and Team
Who else would you want to coach your team, a master recruiter with national championship success? Yes, we?re talking about Nick Saban (111-50-1)down at Alabama who finished last year with a stellar 12-2 mark. He?s turned the trick again with back-to-back outstanding recruiting seasons placing his University in solid position to win the glass bowl. No doubt there will be many detractors as little Nicky must face the huge shadow of Florida and the high flying Rebels of Mississippi to take the Southeastern Conference title. That is step #1 in the process. Step #2 may not be as difficult as we have a host of schools in our Super-7 and other talented programs trying to reach the big game.
Look, Florida won their second BCS Championship under Urban Meyer last season. Of course, thrilled with that forecast, we knee-jerked ahead projecting the Urban and Timmy Legend would accrue back-to-back dividends. The defense has around 20 starters with outstanding backups who could start for any school in the country. The Gators defeated Oklahoma because of two goal line stands, stuffing the Sooners like card board at the line of scrimmage. But, any school, after such a successful run must overcome the projected mental lapses, on the field, when being so highly touted. Alabama, on the other hand, has lost some keys to last year, but their main concern will be the starting quarterback position of which I think (from what I?ve seen on tape and ESPN) Greg McElroy has the arm and intellect to shock the opposition. QB McElroy looked awesome in the spring game and so did the offense in spots. Critical on offense is the center and tackle positions. This spring, HC Saban was on the field to insure the energy was there on every play. His horror story at Alabama was the recent shellacking by Utah in the Sugar Bowl. If you recall, LSU (Saban) was upset by Iowa when the attention of the program was focused on their coach going to the NFL. So, you can expect the heat to be on the Kent State graduate (Saban) to win a national championship this time around. For sure, a favorable schedule is a major key.
Scheduling and Point Spread Observations
The Crimson Tide caught a major break in their overall scheduling in 2009. However, there are some land mines starting with their road and season opener at Blacksburg against the up and coming Hokies. If you recall, last season Saban caught Clemson flat in a 34-10 road whipping in Death Valley (ACC). This time around Alabama will face a well prepared Virginia Tech that can score on defense and special teams. After that encounter, the schedule falls off with the next big game being on October 10th against Ole Miss down in Mississippi. Actually, a BCS Championship game slot could be on the line. After, the Tide will have three home games against South Carolina, Tennessee and LSU. Alabama ends the season in the Iron Bowl against Auburn on the road. However, the week before the War Eagles, the Tide catches UT Chattanooga as a major schedule break. Critical, we find Georgia and Florida not on the Alabama schedule. This is a huge plus for Saban who can roll into the SEC title game without a conference loss, if they can handle Ole Miss and Auburn on the road. November 7th at LSU could be a major upset on the Crimson Tide run to a national title, if they escape, look out!
2. Ole Miss
Coaching
Houston Nutt is in his second year at Ole Miss and the stellar coach has put together a combined record of 89-58. The Rebels finished their last campaign with a smashing 9-4 record and a 47-34 defeat of Big-12 upstart Texas Tech (-4) accumulating over 500 total yards of offense. It was the best season for Mississippi dating back to the 10-3 mark in 2003. We should all remember that Nutt was the SEC coach of the year in 2006, so don?t sell the charismatic leader short, especially with 16 starters returning, 8 on offense and 8 on defense.
Team
The leader of the offense former Texas recruit QB Jevan Snead (2,762) had a super season at Oxford throwing for 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He returns as a starter along with running keys Dexter McCluster (697), Cordera Eason (66) and Brandon Bolden (565). Their biggest loss on offense was receiver Mike Wallace but, Shay Hodge and a host of returnees are set to take up the slack. This unit has speed to burn and will cause havoc in the SEC this year. The Rebels have a solid experienced offensive line with the exception of left tackle, where most likely, a RSF will be burning his knuckles. In 2008 the offensive unit averaged 32 points a game up from 20 points a game in 2007. On defense, we find another emerging unit that should not be undersold because of their previous schedule. The ?D? held the last four regular season opponents to an average of 5 points per game, two of those games were versus Auburn and LSU. Ole Miss reversed their defensive fortunes by stopping the run holding opponents to just 2.7 yards per carry down from 4.7 in 2007. Now, if they refrain from allowing the big plays which hurt them in the SEC games, they could steal the SEC and maybe a national championship, like some are predicting. The Rebels are experienced with Shene and Sparks in the kicking game and depth and speed on special teams. Yes, this is one loaded football team.
Schedule and Point Spread Observations
Most likely the critical group of games for Ole Miss will come at South Carolina, at Vanderbilt and home versus the Crimson Tide. These battles start September 24th and run three consecutive weekends. The Rebels lost those encounters last year by a combined 17 points and represent major revenge games in 2009. The Rebels play Tennessee this season for the first time since 2005, but more important, the very next week LSU comes visiting. The Tigers will look to avenge a 31-13 beating last year in Baton Rouge. If the Tigers are getting points, they maybe a solid play. Invariably, this SEC unit can carve out an 11 win season, if the breaks go their way.
3. Louisiana State University
Coaching
Les Miles has shown he has strong character, a family man much like his mentor from Michigan good old ?Bo.? But, in the SEC the name of the game is winning and the stress level is assuredly growing everyday now with the new ESPN contract. Seemingly, Miles hears the questions and comparisons to Nick Saban coach of Alabama. When at LSU (48-16) ?Little Nicky? restored the winning attitude? to the program and improved the communications through super recruiter Larry Cunningham. The majority of Saban?s recruits are gone, but the skeptics still have questions. Maybe they should check out Saban?s on the field adjustments versus Utah in the Sugar Bowl last year for a real prime time evaluation. Les Miles has won a BCS Title and is 4-0 in bowl games at LSU. Georgia Tech was overmatched last season at the line of scrimmage in the Chick-fil-A Bowl by the Tigers fronts, another chalk in the post season bit the dust. Miles is 70-32 showing up for his 5th year at Baton Rouge after an 8-5 campaign with the Tigers. The major coaching change came at DC where long time Tennessee assistant John Chavis was hired away to take charge of the LSU defense. As far as we know the defense has been improved based on Miles? comments.
Team
Now a sophomore, QB Jordan Jefferson, excited all the LSU backers in the bowl win over Georgia Tech. The kid passed for 142 yards (16/25) and ran for 25 more. Jefferson did not throw an interception or fumble the football, a major accomplishment for a true frosh in a big time game. He has support this season with RB Charles Scott (1,208) back in the fold, along with Williams, Murphy, Ridley and Holliday. The receiving corpse in loaded again with senior Brandon LaFell, TE Richard Dickson, Terrance Toliver and true frosh Rueben Randle (#1 rated receiver in the country). Further, the Tigers will have additional skill with the #1 ranked athlete and dual quarterback in the country Russell Shepard. The youngster from Texas will most likely receive playing time out of the ?Wild Tiger? formation. So, overall with 7 starters returning on offense, depth on the line, and true skill being added to offense, the point production should improve over the 30.9 per game in 2009. Defensively, there should be at least 7 starters returning and now with DC Chavis the unit is understandably crafted with changing guidelines. Since Chad Jones is fully blessed as a starting safety the unit should gain more confidence with his bone crushing tackles almost every down. Our worriment is on the defensive line and the line backing group. We have heard DC Chavis will have these units playing in better position and an aggressive type defense? However, one of my complaints about Chavis at UT was that his corners played too far off the ball, allowing a skilled passer to move the chains effectively. As far as special teams, Trindon Holliday will be running back punts and kicks, along with Chad Jones, so this unit will have big play ability. But, there is no quality replacement for place kicker Colt David who was 16-21 in field goals and 43-44 in extra points last year. The punting game should be okay.
Scheduling and Point Spread Observations
If you thought the Tigers had a chance to win the West, think again. They must travel to both Alabama and Ole Miss this season, not only that, but after the Rebels encounter they return home to face Arkansas who has tormented the Tigers the last two years winning 50-48 (OT) and 31-30. In between are games at Georgia and a revenge game at Death Valley versus #1 Florida. At this writing, like the Tigers plus any points in Baton Rouge on October 10th when the Gators and QB Tim Tebow come calling.
4. Arkansas
Coaching
Bobby Petrino had a short stay at Big East power Louisville. However, reflecting on the changeover to the pressure cooker of the SEC, while replacing Houston Nutt, I still like what the maligned mentor executed in his first season down in Fayetteville. With the prior administration?s recruits, current support and a change in scheme the Razorbacks concluded 2008 with a 5-7 mark and a 31-30 upset of LSU. Petrino has a super offensive background leading to a 46-16 coaching mark in his career. This season Arkansas brings back 50 lettermen.
Team
Former Michigan QB Ryan Mallet will most likely be the starting helmsmen this year for the ?Hogs. The 6-7 and 245 pound athlete must first prove himself both on and off the field. His bout with public intoxication did not help his case, but the kid has talent and should eventually earn the starting berth. The early practice reports have Petrino working on Mallet?s foot work. Overall, the offense is ?loaded? with the fierce RB Michael Smith (1,119) returning for his senior season. In addition there are RSF and transfers on board to add depth and talent to a solid group. If the offensive line improves over last season the 21.9 points per game average from last season should improve greatly. Lucas Miller (490) and Joseph Adams (377) were key leaders from the wide receiver group, but Petrino has 9 qualify players in the program that can play outside and in the slot. D. J. Williams (723) will once again be the starting tight end and is a solid individual. There are 8 returning starters offensively with 3 seniors on deck. Defensively, the ?Hogs bring 9 starters back to the fold. This unit allowed 31.2 points per game last year and 4.4 yards per carry, while giving way time of possession to opposing offenses. With a more experienced defense and special teams the ?Hogs should improve. If Arkansas goes to a bowl game, they will be dancing in Fayetteville.
Schedule and Point Spread Observations
Bobby Petrino was handed no easy task when he moved to Arkansas, especially after peeling back the 2009 schedule. His SEC road games are at Alabama, Florida, Mississippi and LSU. Oh, his first SEC home game Georgia. With the change over in the quarterback position, I would wait a few games to seriously test Arkansas in Las Vegas. Look at October 3rd when the ?Hogs travel to Arlington to play Texas A&M in a non-conference showdown. Arkansas will be coming off a road game at Alabama, while the Aggies will be showing off a softy. If the ?Hogs are getting, we are taking the points.
5. Auburn
Coaching
Gene Chizik is 5-19 is his short coaching career, while sowing his oats at Iowa State. Chizik did not have much talent at ISU, but failed to exactly set the world on fire either. Now he jumps into the world of SEC football where losing is not acceptable in most every program. Chizik is the former assistant to Tommy Tuberville (Auburn) and once led the 2004 defensive unit to the #1 ranking in points allowed. Still, he has the complete responsibility of bringing back the War Eagles after a 5-7 season. Good Luck!
Team
After the Tony Franklin offensive experience, Chizik was smart to hire OC Gus Malzahn. With 7 starters returning this unit needs to improve on their horrid national ranking (#104) and their 18 points per game in 2008. QB Kodi Burns is a junior, so I can?t envision the upper classmen being moved out of position. The running game is solid with senior Ben Tate (718) and outstanding depth. The offensive line will be full of experience and littered with upper classmen. So, I believe you will see a huge jump in their 3.5 yards per carry from last season. Of course, the major problems scoring points last season came throwing the football averaging just165 yards per game. My guess is Tommy Trott will be a key this season in their new scheme (H-Back). On defense, I really like what AU has going, an athletic dominating defensive line and linebackers. JUCO Eltoro Freeman has found his place at linebacker solidifying a questionable unit. Recall the defense was ranked #29 last season. Again, the secondary is full of experience and should improve on their 179 yards allowed per game. If junior safety Mike McNeil is healthy, this could round out one of the top four defenses in the SEC. Special teams could be a real question mark with the lack of a quality place-kicker at this writing. If, Auburn does have a winning campaign Chizik will deserve much credit.
Schedule and Point Spread Observations
On September 26th Auburn faces a visiting MAC club, Ball State, between a home game with West Virginia and their first SEC road game at Tennessee. Most likely, we will see double digits. If you are playing, the early season observation says to take the generous points. Oh, don?t forget the Iron Bowl the Crimson Tide mangled the War Eagles last season 36-0.
6. Mississippi State
Coaching
Hopefully, the former Bulldogs mentor, Sylvester Croom, has moved on to greener pastures because the gentleman had one difficult task down in Starkville. In 2007 MSU put together a nice 8-5 season, winning the Liberty Bowl against UCF 10-3 to complete the campaign. Hopes were high last year, but the 4-8 finish completed the run at Mississippi State for Sylvester Croom. They lost the final game of the season to in-state rival Ole Miss 45-0. New mentor Dan Mullen will try his hand at college coaching for the first time after working for Urban Meyer and Dennis Franchione. Good Luck!
Team
I am pretty sure Dan Mullen expected to have his ?offense? in the lineup practicing this fall and of course, I am referring to RB Anthony Dixon. However, Dixon was arrested in July for ?driving under the influence.? So, we don?t know at this writing his status for this early season or what his availability will be at all to the football team. No matter, the Bulldogs start the season with six returning letters on offense, including Dixon (869). With the change over in the quarterback position last year we have no idea who will run the show this time around. This is a group that could push the scrimmage line for only 3.1 yards per carry running the football, that is why Dixon?s numbers where so incredible. In addition, the OL gave into 36 sacks with the help of indecisions by the QB position. On defense, the deal becomes real dicey as there will just 4 starters returning from a year ago. How Mullen handles this side of the ball will determine is starting point at MSU. Last year, the Bulldogs lost four games by 25 or more points. MSU has an interesting contrast on defense, a smallish defensive line, big linebackers and a small secondary. However, we understand the JUCO transfers are very talented and should improve the overall ability of the stop troops. Unfortunately, special teams at Mississippi State continue to be just average, but Mullen is looking to upgrade this aspect of the football team.
Schedule and Point Spread Observations
If Mississippi State wins three games, it will be a huge surprise to most observers, especially considering they matriculate in the jacked up west division of the SEC. From the point spread perspective, a very bad spot for the Bulldogs will be November 21st when they travel to Little Rock to face Arkansas. Last season MSU defeated 31-28 at Starkville. Revenge? You bet!
