first off if any one has some nice numbers that show a profit bring them on . i believe s. r.are way over bet .before beyers was in the form, did my ow n lots of work pars ,t.v.only got maybe 3 to 4 winners a week.now i rarely look at them for below stakes races.stakes and above will run more true to form .look more towards pace, trip,class,trainer-jock angle,got to watch the races and know the co. lines for a chance at this.any and all thoughts welcome:shrug:
speed ratings
- Thread starter Dogfish
- Start date
hey dogfish
hey dogfish
from my understanding, andrew beyer made some nice money off his speed ratings. seemed to be his system, really, and it paid off for him. now, however, i agree with you 100 percent. i find the speed ratings almost meaningless.
then pace came into popular play. and of course you can buy the famous "pace calculator" or any number of other pace systems.
one odd thing, and a telling thing, about the speed numbers is that if you happened to have two different programs for the same race, like one from equibase and one from brisnet, the dam numbers are different anyway. so, a player of speed figures is left to decide which he likes best with often no understanding of how the figures were arrived at.
i also believe that any system, like the speed figures, that have emerged as popular favorites becomes less and less profitable, as even the "birthday numbers" players begin using them.
one of the things i love about this site is that people actually attempt to post information; and that has been valuable to me, and so, if it sounds like i'm a complete cynic, i'm actually not, i love the ponies. . .i just think we need all the help we can get because the landscape is littered with numbers and touts that often have no substance.
hey dogfish
from my understanding, andrew beyer made some nice money off his speed ratings. seemed to be his system, really, and it paid off for him. now, however, i agree with you 100 percent. i find the speed ratings almost meaningless.
then pace came into popular play. and of course you can buy the famous "pace calculator" or any number of other pace systems.
one odd thing, and a telling thing, about the speed numbers is that if you happened to have two different programs for the same race, like one from equibase and one from brisnet, the dam numbers are different anyway. so, a player of speed figures is left to decide which he likes best with often no understanding of how the figures were arrived at.
i also believe that any system, like the speed figures, that have emerged as popular favorites becomes less and less profitable, as even the "birthday numbers" players begin using them.
one of the things i love about this site is that people actually attempt to post information; and that has been valuable to me, and so, if it sounds like i'm a complete cynic, i'm actually not, i love the ponies. . .i just think we need all the help we can get because the landscape is littered with numbers and touts that often have no substance.
Dogfish the funny part about cappin horses is that the majority of it is somebody elses oppinion. I try and base my cappin around workouts, current form, and an important key...how a horse looks on the track. Believe it or not a I eliminate a vast majority of horses from there look in the paddock.
Good luck in whatever technique you use
Good luck in whatever technique you use
Physicality Handicapping
Physicality Handicapping
Horses can't hide their condition. And they sure as hell can't hide the fact that they're fit and ready to fire. A quick trip to the ring quite possibly could save you some wasted tickets.
Who wants to be sliding $ thru the window while his horse is out in the ring acting so fractious they have to bring in a cowboy to controll him. Yellow kidney sweat down to his hocks, won't be saddled....you get the idea. Even if he GETS to post, he's a guaranteed pop & stop. Meanwhile you've keyed him in a couple gimmicks. 10 minutes to post, you lost your wager already.
Spot winners same way. In the ring. Can't miss a horse who's prancing around the ring, head high, confident, can't wait to get to it. He's got the look and the walk. You won't find THAT in the PP's.
That's why I hate spending the day at OTB. It's like buying a car without seeing it.
Physicality Handicapping
Horses can't hide their condition. And they sure as hell can't hide the fact that they're fit and ready to fire. A quick trip to the ring quite possibly could save you some wasted tickets.
Who wants to be sliding $ thru the window while his horse is out in the ring acting so fractious they have to bring in a cowboy to controll him. Yellow kidney sweat down to his hocks, won't be saddled....you get the idea. Even if he GETS to post, he's a guaranteed pop & stop. Meanwhile you've keyed him in a couple gimmicks. 10 minutes to post, you lost your wager already.
Spot winners same way. In the ring. Can't miss a horse who's prancing around the ring, head high, confident, can't wait to get to it. He's got the look and the walk. You won't find THAT in the PP's.
That's why I hate spending the day at OTB. It's like buying a car without seeing it.
Have been fiddling with ponies for about 43 years and couldn't agree more about speed ratings. They offer such a small fraction of the picture and there are so many variables, they can only lead you down the wrong path more often than not. I think the Beyer ratings are hogwash. Have done some extensive research and looked very hard and the consistancy in various classes. I have actually found that in California, at least, straight maidens are very predictable. Basically I would agree that the cheaper the horse the less predictable - but that only makes sense. However, some trainers that specialize in those kind of horses (cheap claimers - Bobby Frankel was a legend with them in his early days) go against the grain. The most amazing thing about the visual aspect is that in my opinion most of the fitness questions are difficult to see. I have spent some time with clockers and they can pick out things that I couldn't see in a million years. The best information I have ever received on a consistant basis comes from clockers. Jockeys are the worst and trainers are basically only good when they tell you they DON'T have a shot. Just my thoughts - could be wrong.
