Spotlight Selection &Series Watch

[JT Sneaks]

First, thanks for all the input to the spotlight selection. I am willing to take suggestions for about 30 mins after this is posted on what games the board may want analyzed.

Last night's recap:

CHi-sox -130 W

Cubbies -110 W

OVER 7.5 +110 L

Parlay: Cubs / Over 7.5 L

Cle/Minn UNDER 9 (E) W

Atl/Mon Over 8.5 -120 L

Houston +120 Listed W

Anaheim -102 W

UNDER Bos / Detroit 10 -110 W

Mets +134 W

Overall: 7-3, +4.34

Finally something else to look at,

Some cappers attack baseball by the series. They look at the series and look for value in the series. If they find a team that they think will be at a good price and will win at least ONE game of the series they are about to start, then they bet them in the first game of the series and if they win, they are done. If they lose the bet progressively in game two, and if they win they are done. If they lose they again bet progressively in game three. The hope is that the team they have selected will win once and then they will move on to the next series. Anyway, I have heard many good arguements for and against this theory, and I would like to test this theory, so at the beginning of a series I will pick one that I think has value and will track it.

Back shortly with series to watch and the spotlight selection....

JT

Sneaks




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<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
A man is not defined by how he reacts when he wins, but how he reacts when he loses.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

 

[selkirk]

I have no suggestions for games today, just a note to say thanks for all the write ups and the work that goes into them.

thanks
selkirk

 

[Scotty H]

Hey Sneaks I have a couple of games for you to look at if it is possible.

Mets/DRays series

Cubs/Sox Series

 

[JT Sneaks]

Series to watch

Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees

Here is the pitching matchups for this series:

petite vs. glavine
mendoza vs. smoltz
mussina vs. maddux

I will back the braves in this series as I get the best part of the braves rotation, and there is a good chance I will get them as dogs or a pick in every game of the series. If the braves can't pull off the split in the first two games I get to back maddux to salvage the series at what should be a reasonable price.

Game One
One Unit Selection
Atlanta Braves +130

JT

Sneaks



[This message has been edited by JT Sneaks (edited 06-08-2001).]

 

[JT Sneaks]

Today's Spotlight Game:

NY Mets -135 @ Tampa Bay 10O20

JT

 

[JT Sneaks]

Thanks selkirk, it's always nice to be praised by those you respect.....

NY Mets -140 @ Tampa Bay 10O20

Pitching:

This is ugly no bones about it:

Trachsel vs. Rupe

Trachsel
He has faced the D-rays once in his career 0-1, with an era of 2.57, the mets lost that game 6-0. To say that he has had his troubles this year would be an understatement he is 1-6 on the year with an era over 8! It doesn't get much better for him on the road where he is winless at 0-2, era of 8.44. In his last five he is 1-3 with one ND. That one win was at shea against the astros and the mets managed to give him eight runs of support. The mets in all of his road start are 0-3 on the season. In the eight games the bullpen has come in for relief of trachsel thier era is 3.16. Trachsel was doing so bad he was sent to the minors, and is back with a renewed confidence.
So what will Trachsel have now that he didn't have before he left for Norfolk a month ago with a 1-6 record and an 8.24 ERA?

"How long is your article?" said Trachsel, who was 2-0 with a 2.79 ERA in the minors, including a seven-inning no-hitter. "Hopefully a little bit of confidence, better consistency with my fastball and a little bit better tempo."
Finally the team is 1-7 this year behind Trachsel, and he is 6-15 on road since 2000

Rupe
Rupe is no cy-young canidate either as he is 2-4 on the season with an high era of 6.20
However he is a much different pitcher at home than he is on the road. On the road he is an awful 1-4, with an era of 7.62. When he comes home he is a completely different pitcher. In the two games that he has started he is 1-0 with a low era of 2.92. In his last five he is 2-2 with a ND. In his two starts at home the team is 1-1, and in the eight games the pen has come in to give him relief the post a minute era at 2.30.

Hitting
Interleague matchups are infamous for providing limited data against an opponent, for example only one player on the mets has ever faced rupe:

Zeile .200

The D-rays on the other hand have several players who have faced Trachsel (of course most have limited at bats):

The Good:
McGriff .400 (also has the most Ab's @ 15)
Williams .667

The Bad:
Flaherty .143

The Ugly:
Vaugh .091


Trends

Mets
1-4 on road on Friday this season
2-8 on road after a road win this season

Devil Rays
8-27 last 35 games
4-13 last 17 home games
0-4 @ home on Friday this season

I think the D-rays have some value here: (I know Riviman

)

With the information I have I know these things:
Rupe pitches well on the road
Traschel pitches bad on the road
Cleanup hitter Mcgriff hits Traschel well

D-Rays +130

This line is rising you may want to wait I could see it going up as much as a dime before game time.

JT

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

Now a shot at the total...

Unless I have some strong trends, weather reports or other information, I will not play a total in the first game of a series.
I need to know the umpire and they are usually announced about 20 mins before game time, putting me in a time crunch for research.

This game gets even harder to analyze for the total, no ump and no weather report (dome).

You can make some arguements for both sides of the total:

OVER:
Let's face it these pitchers stink era over 8 and six, and both of these teams are also playing lousy defense. Check out Happy Capper's thread he also has some info...

UNDER:
Trachsel's re hab may have put him on the right track as he has pitched well in the minor's. Rupe throws well at home and the bullpens have done well in relief of both starters. The only meeting prior to this one the game was 6-0, under the total.
Also IL games tend to go under, check out MOV's great thread!

Pass on the total

JT

Sneaks

A game that was already full with interesting side notes gets a little more interesting:

On Deck:

Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox -125 / 9O20


[This message has been edited by JT Sneaks (edited 06-08-2001).]

 

[woodpony]

Thanks JT for the quick reply's yesterday and the plays. I agree with the Braves play and I'm looking at T.Bay - but have not pulled the trigger yet. If you have time take a look at Anaheim/LA seems to me some money has came in on the Angels. thanks and good luck.

 

[JT Sneaks]

Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox -125 / 9O20

This one has all of the intensity of a playoff matchup in the battle of Chicago.
Players get overwhelmed the first time they see what this is like," White Sox general manager Ken Williams said. "It reminds me of a playoff atmosphere.

I am going to look at the total in this game first....
TOTAL: 9O20

With no umpire information this early, let's go to the weather map.

The hourly report: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/USIL0225.htm?dayNumber=0&hour=8

the forecast calls for the winds to be out of the northeast for the entire game at light speeds between 2-5 mph....
Winds out of the NE are left to right in the stadium, and the O/u numbers when the wind is blowing from that direction is 4/4. If the wind is blowing from that direction and the wind speed is below 10 the O/U is 1/2.

Previous matchups and Last ten:

Cubs: O/U L10: 4/6

White Sox: O/U L10: 2/8

Head-to-Head: O/U 4/2

Numbers and trends:

Cubs:
Cubs w/ Bere pitching on the road: O/U 3/1
Overall when Bere is on the hill: O/U 4/6
Cubs vs. lefty this year: O/U 2/8
as road dog of +125 or less: O/U 3/7
as dog on the road under comes in 67%

White Sox:
w/Wells pitching at home: O/U 1/3
Overall when wells takes the hill: O/U 5/5
vs. righties this year: O/U 18/26
games played on grass this year: O/U 20/30
5-17 o/u last 22 games
1-7 o/u last 8 home games

With no umpire I am a bit timid to make a play on the total, however with the under numbers being this strong, I can't pass it up:

Play UNDER 9 +100

Back with the side in this matchup..

Sneaks

 

[Never Caught Up]

Well done.

 

[JT Sneaks]

WP,
Actually the Angels game has caught my eye, and I am also seeing some movement...

Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox -125 / 9O20

How even has this series been? Tight real tight, and usually in a tight series you would tend to go with the hotter team, but again both teams are smoking. So let's get to the breakdown:

First the tribune has a very decent breakdown of this game and it shows you just how close it has been in the past:
http://navigation.helper.realnames.com/framer/1/113/default.asp?realname=Chicago+Tribune&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Echicago%2Etribune%2Ecom%2F&frameid=1&providerid=113&uid=30003235

Pitching:

Bere
Bere has pitched well for this cub club this year as he is 4-2 on the season, and has identical records home and away at 2-1, but on the road his era is higher at 6.35, the cubs are 2-2 in his four starts on the road this year. Bere faced the white sox once and was shelled 0-1 era over 16 and he only pitched 3.1 innings.

Wells
It's hard to figure out when wells will get moved if ever, and it is even harder to figure out if he is happy playing anywhere. With all the distractions wells is only 4-5 on the year, and 1-1 at home with an era of 3.98. The white sox are 3-1 behind wells at home and wells might have a better record but he cannot rely on his bullpen as they post an era over four when coming in to relieve the big guy.

Hitting
Both teams have been hitting the ball quite nicely some players more than others. Let's see how the white sox match up against Bere:

Alomar .375
Valentin .182

all othe players only have 3AB's or less

Wells vs. some cubbies
Cairo .300
Coomer .412
Girardi .313
Sosa .286 (only player on the list with less than 10 ab's)
White .375

Don't be surprised if you see matt stairs riding the pine as he is 0-12 lifetime vs. wells.

Trends

Cubs:
15-1 last 16 games
5-1 last 6 road games
4-0 in 1st game of a road trip this season

White Sox:
11-2 last 13 games
6-1 last 7 home games

Final Analysis
This should be a close tightly played game between two teams playing good ball of late.
Look at the scores of the past three matchups regardless of the winner...

6-5
4-3
6-5

These games have been close and that favors the cubs in two aspects:

1) The cubs have been playing tight baseball in a playoff atmosphere as they have just finished playing against the cards. They should not come into this game has tight as the white sox.

2) The cubs have the best record in the bigs this year in one run games.

Getting a team this hot at plus money is always on the side of good value.

Chicago Cubs +115 straight action

I think the white sox may gran an early lead but I look for the cubs to pull it out, the difference is that the white sox hit bere well once, and the cub hitters hit wells on a consistent basis. WARNING CUB BACKERS: Our only fear tonight is that baylor does not do his homework, and brings in Fassero to close this game out, the white sox lineup smashes fassero like a pinata at a cynco de mayo festival. So get the pace makers ready.

Final Note: Check out fletchers post on a possible trade with the white sox. This is a great time to pull it off as these games don't affect standings as much as the others. If the trade is pulled off the white sox will be short handed at some point in some position and the game could even go off the board a solid reason to get on it now.

JT

Sneaks

 

[Scotty H]

Thanks JT for the write ups. Decided to not play the Mets tonight but still like the Cubs alot. Are you looking at any other games for tonight??

 

[JT Sneaks]

of course.....

working on the early games as we speak...

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

took some family time off but I am back with some late quick write ups and a triple unit selection! I have not found one of those in a long time and I have one tonight.

JT

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

Want to get my plays out before the bell:

Here they are:

Already posted but got ATL at +142

Montreal +150

Pittsburgh +190

Texas E

Rockies -1.5 +130


JT

Sneaks

Triple Unit Selection:
Rockies -138