Spotlight Game
Atlanta @ New York -125 / 7-
This is part of the series system I am playing so I will not be playing a side on this game, however since this is the ESPN game I thought it would be appropiate to do as the spotlight game
Pitchers
Maddux
This ace of the braves staff is off to a rather rough start to the year as he is just 5-5, and on the road he is sub par at 3-4. Maddux has posted a low era at 2.43 so you may want to look at a few other things.
1) The bullpen has let him down on numerous occasions as the have a loft era of 7.71 when they come into relieve him.
2) Run support: The braves only offer up three runs per game in support.
In his last three starts although he is only 1-1, he has looked spectacular with an era of 1.84 and a strikeout to walk ratio of 15/2.
Trends:
2-2 TSR vs NYY 6.95 ERA
1-4 last 5 road starts
3-1 last 4 starts
0-2 o/u last 2 road starts
3-1 o/u vs New York since 98
Mussina
The moose is another good pitcher that has also struggled thus far on the year. He is just 5-6 overall, and just 3-3 at yankee stadium this year. Just like maddux is era is somewhat low (3.78) so we should research on why he is losing. First the bullpen has an era of 4.50 in relief of the moose, and the yankees have given him an average of 3.75 runs per game this year. Not to mention he did have to go head-to-head with pedro, although he won once. In his last three starts although his record his 1-2, opponents are just batting .199 against him, and his K/BB ratio is stunning at 29/4. However his last start was horrible as he pitched five innings getting the loss as he has an era over 10.
Trends:
0-2 last 2 starts
0-2 @ home vs Atlanta since 98
4-1 o/u last 5 home starts
4-0 o/u vs Atlanta since 97
1-2 TSR vs Atlanta 6.53 ERA
HittingThe braves actually have the edge in hitting in the last ten vs. righties as they are hitting .315 while the yankees are hitting .248..
Breaking it down to individual numbers against today's pitchers you have the braves:
Good:
Lopez .625
Lockhart .304
Chipper Jones .333
and the bad....
A. Jones .100
Brogna 0 for 8 .000
Now for the yankees...
The Good:
Jeter .538
Knoblauch .444
and the bad....
Martinez .182
Brosius .125
Team Trends:
Braves
13-4 last 17 games
7-1 last 8 road games
1-4 @ New York last 5 games
4-9 o/u last 13 road games (2 over)
Yankees
8-2 vs Atlanta last 10 games
3-1 last 4 games
12-3 o/u last 15 home games
0-5 o/u after going OVER the total 2 straight games last 5 times
Side: NO PLAY
Maddux as a dog is value anytime you can get it, and I think the braves are playing better but I don't want to go against the yankees with the recent dominance over the braves.
I said I was not playing this game because of my system experiment, but I don't think I would have played it anyway this one is too close to call.
Behind the Plate
Rapuano gets the call behind the plate and over the years he has proven to be a homer, as the home team is 85-64 in the last five years, when that home team is favored by -125 they are just 12-14.
Against the total Ed he again shows us mixed signals as he is an under ump in the last five years at 69/75 but against the number 7 he is O/U 9/5.
Tough call but perhaps the weather will help us make the final decision....
http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/USNY0996
It looks as though it will be a clear night so rain will not be a factor. The wind will be from the west and southwest throughout the night with wind speeds not exceeding 10 mph.
PLAY OVER 7 -110
No reasoning behind the over play. First behind the plate ed has been historically an under ump, except when he faces a low number. This year he is averaging 9.73 runs per game which is an over by two runs. The weather is next when the winds are below 0-10 in yankee stadium, the O/U is 16/6. Factor in the direction(s) west and southwest and you have two directions that are both blowing out of the stadium. Factor in that both teams are hitting very well, and the bullpens are faltering. The Over has come in four straight times in this series.
Hope this helps.
JT
Sneaks
Sneaks
