Interesting stuff.
I'm definitely interested, Don Wallace. Unforunately, what you're looking for--a trend annual going back 5-10 years--is something that I can't provide. I know a number of websites that provide various trends but I don't recall them ever considering such periods. For myself, I view trends rather skeptically, certainly for baseball. Certain ones look practically applicable but if I were to find a trend such as the Mets are 150-50 the past 5 years vs lefties in day home games then I wouldn't simply consider the odds of them winning in such a situation as 75%--the results from previous years appear less valuable than their recent efforts and the matchup at hand; certainly I would recognize their stellar work against lefties but I would expect that their offensive output vs lefties--which I am more likely to rely on--would reflect this. Other, similar trends would warrant similar consideration but the by-gone years (say 3 years ago plus) seem less relevant to me while recent production and trends would carry more weight.
For years, now, I've been interested in developing strategies and systems for combatting the lines that we are presented. I have a sound one for the NFL and fairly well-tested one for MLB. Always trying to refine things. Trying to simplify things, too, where possible.
As far as going doggie-style goes, that is another matter. If my baseball system predicts a dog to win then I am definitely interested but more often than not it calls on the favorite to win. The question then becomes how likely the favorite is and whether or not the line provides any value. With so many options during the baseball season, dogs will no doubt provide value. As far as playing them exclusively, however, I figure that such will keep me away from many opportunities that come up. This year I am trying to stay within the range of -140's or better; maybe played a few too many -150's to -180's last season. I dunno...sure worked out well last season regardless. Struggle, so far, but last year saw me excel more during June through October anyways. The numbers that I rely on seem to be more constructive once a few months are in the books--before then they are a little too unstable.
As far as dog restriction "for money management purposes" goes, I'm not sure that I follow you, or agree with the philosophy. I'm perfectly content to risk -140 on a 70% proposition, even more so than risking +100 on a 60% proposition. These kind of comparisons I have been playing with for years. Even tried to get some feedback in the general discussion forum, on such value assessments, though responses have been, at best, ambiguous.
Funk...I can go on about this shiite.
Always interested in the subject.
Always looking for ways to turn an house advantage on its head.
I've heard that there are a few decent books out there about betting on baseball. I'm still toying with the idea of crafting one myself.
Hope we can continue this in the future.
For now, the Spurs is just a thought.
