Stag -- Road Dogs

[superbook]

Looks like seven plays today.

I'm using lines from Oly; I'm still in the market for a bases book.

Philly +140
Pitt +205
SD +240
Col +145
Tor +200
CWS +140
Texas +125

Each game risking $50 to win whatever.

I know you're playing $100 on each game; I'll start smaller and work up.

- Jon

 

[infinii]

How big of a bankroll would you guys suggest if I wanted to play this system at $100=1unit?

thanks

 

[superbook]

I'll let Stag give his point of view, but IMO you would need a bankroll of at least $5000 so that a $100 play is 2% of your total BR.

This might still be low because with 7 plays you would be putting 14% of your total BR at risk at one time.

My BR is just under 3 dimes therefore I feel more comfortable with $50 plays on each game.

I'd be interested in hearing other thoughts on this.

- Jon

 

[Nick Douglas]

I would strongly advice *against* playing any system blindly unless you have researched and tracked it for a few cycles. Handicapping is a very fluid business and generally success comes to those who do research on many angles to find plays, not those who blindly play something as general as road underdogs in baseball. Good luck playing them but that is my opinion.

 

[superbook]

Nick --

No question you're right about following a system blindly.

I'm posting in response to some info which Stag shared with the forum about the success of betting on Road Dogs in bases. Stag and I have also discussed the numbers and his strategies in a couple of private emails.

From one of Stag's posts on this forum:

"I have looked at the total units won for home dogs and away dogs. It doesn't even come close. If you bet 100 bucks on every dome dog since 1993 (with shopping), you would be about even.
However, if you bet every away dog since 1993 for 100 bucks a pop, you would be up close to 20,000. So, I should have said AWAY DOGS in my post. Thanks for bringing it up, however.
I found this info. in a database that Jack used to have here. It was called "QuantSport." The link no longer works for some reason, though. Maybe the books made them shut it down! HAHA!! But it was by far the most useful "read" in my life.
As to the reasons why AWAY DOGS make so much more than home dogs? I think that home-field is OVERVALUED in baseball. Many times a team is just favored because it is playing at home..(hence the value in the road team). Also, if a road team is favored, it truly is the better team more often than not. "

Have you even looked in this? I'd be interested in your opinion.

- Jon

 

[Nick Douglas]

I don't have stats on that and obviously those numbers would vary wildly over a 9 year period depending on what kind of lines you get.

All I know is that when I have seen people track betting actual money on blind trends, they have lost. That especially applies to a trend as general as baseball road underdogs.

I honestly hope that this works for you (especially on that Pittsburgh play today ) but just remember that in handicapping, there is no such thing as easy money.

-Nick

 

[superbook]

Nick --

Thanks for your response.

There must be something to these dog strategies -- between Stag's Road Dogs, RanderCity's Dog Plays and Valuist's Home Dogs.

I'm going to play Stag's Road Dogs for a while; I'll post the plays and results here and let's see how they do.

- Jon

 

[Lightning]

Stag

Stag

Just passing on some info cause I am friends with Stag. After speaking with him for a while yesterday, he told me he was quitting gambling and will not be visiting Madjacks so unless he changes his mind, it is unlikely he will be replying or reading this thread. Just wanted to let you guys know so you don't wonder where he is. Good Luck!

 

[superbook]

Lightning --

Thanks for passing on the info. I hope all is well with Stag and that this is a good thing.

Let's consider this Road Dog thread Stag's legacy to MJs.

 

[prospector]

Geez, Stag ... gone?
bummer.

and just day before yesterday he was planning on opening a new account.

http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&postid=202676#post202676

he'll definately be missed around the hockey table.