Stanley Cup Playoff Preview - Washington vs. Pittsburgh

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Stanley Cup Playoff Preview - Washington vs. Pittsburgh


WASHINGTON CAPITALS (2nd seed, East)

REGULAR SEASON RECORD: 50-24-8

2009 PLAYOFFS: Defeated NY Rangers 4-3 in conference quarterfinals

After needing all seven games to eliminate the New York Rangers in the opening round, the Washington Capitals now switch their focus to the Pittsburgh Penguins for one of the most anticipated conference semifinals matchups in quite some time.

The Capitals boast Alex Ovechkin, arguably the best player in the world, while Pittsburgh has the dynamic duo of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin on its side.

The hype surrounding this series is all about Crosby and Ovechkin, whose abilities have been compared and contrasted since they both entered the NHL as rookies for the 2005-06 campaign. In just four years time, they have each won the Hart Trophy as league MVP and both picked up a scoring title.

The rivalry between the NHL's two biggest stars also grew to another level this season when Crosby took offense to Ovechkin's penchant for exuberant goal celebrations. The Penguins captain criticized Ovechkin in a post-game interview to set off a war of words between the superstars.

Over-the-top celebrator or not, Ovechkin had another superb season for the Capitals in 2008-09. The Russian sniper picked up his second straight Rocket Richard Trophy by leading the NHL with 56 goals and was second to only Malkin in the NHL with 110 points on the year.

Ovechkin also helped his club win a playoff series for the first time since 1998 by registering seven points (3 goals, 4 assists) in the seven games against the Rangers.

While the Penguins have the league's best 1-2 offensive punch in Crosby and Malkin, the Capitals are not that far behind in overall firepower. In addition to Ovechkin's stellar season, Washington also received career-best point production from Alexander Semin and Nicklas Backstrom.

Semin was second to his countryman Ovechkin with 34 goals for the Caps this year and was third on the club with 79 points. He was also Washington's top offensive weapon in the Rangers series, pacing the team with five goals and eight points in the opening round. The five markers tied Semin with Carolina's Eric Staal for the most goals in the conference quarterfinal round.

Backstrom had 14 goals and 69 points during his rookie campaign of 2007-08 and took a big step forward with 88 points on 22 goals and 66 assists this season. The playmaking Swede also notched seven assists against the Rangers, giving him the most helpers by any player in the opening round.

Adding veteran leadership and strong forechecking to the Washington front line is centerman Sergei Fedorov, who had four points in the opening series, including the game-winning goal in the decisive Game 7.

While Ovechkin led all NHL players in goals, teammate Mike Green paced the league's defensemen with 31 tallies and 73 points on the season. He became just the seventh rearguard in NHL history to reach the 30-goal plateau and the first since another Capital, Kevin Hatcher, did it during the 1992-93 season. Adding to Green's feat was the fact that he played in just 68 games this year, making him the first blueliner to score 30 goals while playing in less than 70 contests.

Green, however, struggled at the start of the New York series, but did wind up posting five points on a goal and four helpers during the opening round. Tom Poti, who had just 13 points during the regular season, led Washington in blue-line offense in Round 1, registering two goals and six points against his former club.

A big surprise in the opening round series against the Rangers was the fact that Jose Theodore started just one game in goal for the Capitals. Theodore, who was signed this past offseason to be the club's No. 1 netminder, yielded four goals on 21 shots in Game 1 and that was enough for head coach Bruce Boudreau to make a gutsy goaltending switch.

With Theodore in the doghouse, the Caps turned to Simeon Varlamov to start Game 2 and, as it turns out, that was the beginning of an excellent series for the largely untested rookie netminder.

Varlamov had just six games of NHL experience prior to this year's playoffs and matched that number in the series against New York. The 21-year-old Russian netminder went 4-2 against the Rangers and posted a stellar 1.17 goals against average and .952 save percentage in the series.

Washington's special teams were solid if not spectacular in the opening round, as the Caps scored six times on 33 power-play opportunities (18.2 percent) and killed off 27-of-31 penalties (87.1 percent).

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS (4th seed, East)

REGULAR SEASON RECORD: 45-28-9

2009 PLAYOFFS: Defeated Philadelphia 4-2 in conference quarterfinals

(Sports Network) - The Penguins made it all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals before being eliminated from the playoffs a year ago. For most of the 2008-09 campaign the club wasn't even sure if it was going to make the postseason at all.

Pittsburgh struggled through the first half of the season and is one of five teams in this year's playoffs that fired its coach during the course of the 2008-09 campaign. The Pens made their coaching change after 57 games when Michel Therrien was axed and replaced by Dan Bylsma.

The rest is history, as they say. Including the first round of the playoffs, Pittsburgh has won 22 out of 31 games under Bylsma and, following the playoff win over Philadelphia, the club decided to remove the interim tag from his title and sign the new coach to a multi-year deal.

It should come as no surprise who led the Pens to their opening-round win over the Flyers. Malkin is leading all NHL players with nine points in the playoffs after torching Philly for four goals and five assists in Round 1. Crosby was right behind his Russian teammate, as he notched four goals and four assists against the Orange & Black.

The 22-year-old Malkin has improved every year he has been in the NHL. He registered 85 points as a rookie in 2006-07, posted 106 points last year and won the Art Ross Trophy this season with 113 points on 35 goals and 78 assists. Malkin also earned his second straight Hart Trophy nomination this year.

Crosby, meanwhile, reached the 100-point mark for the third time in his four NHL seasons this year, finishing with 103 points (33g, 70a).

After Malkin and Crosby, Pittsburgh's next-best offensive weapon in the Philadelphia series was defenseman Sergei Gonchar, who had five points on one goal and four helpers. However, Gonchar recorded all four of his assists in the first three games of the series and didn't reach the scoresheet again until scoring a goal in Game 6.

Gonchar is the point man and key to Pittsburgh's success on the power play. The Penguins struggled on the man advantage in the opening round, as they converted on just 12.5 percent on four out of 32 power-play chances.

Pittsburgh did fare better on the penalty kill, as it stopped the Flyers from scoring on 26-of-30 power-play chances (86.7 percent).

In addition to the coaching switch, the Pens also turned around their season with the help of some trade deadline acquisitions. Veteran forward Bill Guerin, who came over from the New York Islanders, had 12 points (5g, 7a) in 17 regular-season games with Pittsburgh and continued his success with two goals and an assist against the Flyers.

Chris Kunitz, however, would like to have better second round series after posting just two assists in the conference quarterfinals. The winger had initially made a big splash with the Pens after coming over in a trade with Anaheim, posting seven goals and 11 assists in 20 games with Pittsburgh.

Turning in a strong series for the Penguins in Round 1 was goaltender Marc- Andre Fleury, who recorded a 2.39 GAA and .922 save percentage over the six games. He more-or-less stole Game 4 in Philadelphia, stopping 45-of-46 shots to will Pittsburgh to a 3-1 decision.

Fleury has played in 31 career postseason games and is 19-12 with a 2.32 GAA and three shutouts in those outings.

MATCHUP

This series represents the start of a new playoff rivalry between two of the NHL's most marketable teams. In fact, anticipation for a postseason battle between Crosby's Pens and Ovechkin's Caps has been building since the two set the league ablaze as rookies in 2005-06.

Historically, Pittsburgh has dominated the Capitals in the postseason, winning six out of seven all-time playoff meetings between the clubs. They last met in the opening round of the 2001 playoffs and the Pens skated away with a six- game series victory.

Washington's only playoff triumph over the Pens came in six games during the 1994 conference quarterfinals.

The Caps, however, won three out of four regular-season matchups against Pittsburgh this year. The Penguins did pick up a win in a 4-3 shootout the last time the clubs met on March 8 in D.C.

Semin led Washington with seven points (4g, 3a) in four games against Pittsburgh this year and was also a plus-five in those contests. Ovechkin added four goals and two assists in the season series.

Crosby notched a goal and six assists to lead Pittsburgh against the Caps this year and Malkin had two goals and three helpers. Neither player did well in the plus-minus category, as Malkin was a minus-six and Crosby a minus-five.

Fleury also struggled in the series, posting a 1-3 record and a 4.72 GAA against Washington. Varlamov, meanwhile, has never faced Pittsburgh.

This should be a tightly-contested series, but don't expect the games to be low scoring as both Washington and the Pens are loaded with offensive talent. In the end, Ovechkin and the Caps will use home-ice advantage to eliminate Pittsburgh and move into the Eastern Conference finals.

Predicted outcome: Capitals in 7
 
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Lumi

LOKI
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Aug 30, 2002
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Penguins-Capitals Series Outlook

Penguins-Capitals Series Outlook

Penguins-Capitals Series Outlook


No. 2 Washington Capitals vs. No. 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Series Price: Washington -140, Pittsburgh +120

Series Format: Washington, 2-2-1-1-1


HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS
TEAM SU PUCK LINE HOME AWAY OVER/UNDER
49-30-9 40-48 27-14-3 22-17-6 43-41-4
54-27-8 41-48 31-11-3 23-16-5 47-37-5



2008-09 Head to Head Meetings
Date Results Total
10/16/08 Washington 4 (+100) @ Pittsburgh 3 OVER 5.5
01/14/09 Washington 6 (-115) @ Pittsburgh 3 OVER 6
02/22/09 Pittsburgh 2 @ Washington 5 (-220) OVER 6
03/08/09 Pittsburgh 4 (+135) @ Washington 3 in SO OVER 6.5



Skinny: The suits at the NHL?s office must have smiles that go from ear to ear that this series came to be. This Eastern Conference Semifinal features some of the best young talent the game has to offer.

Washington has some of the best fire power you?ll find on any one team. Everyone knows about Hart Trophy finalist Alex Ovechkin and his constant highlight reel goals and the Rangers did a fairly decent job of covering him. But you can?t just cover Ovechkin as Alexander Semin (five goals against the Blueshirts) can and will make you pay. You also can?t forget about Mike Green, who is bound to get rolling (one goal in the playoffs) after scoring 31 goals during the regular season.

The Caps? power play was second only to Detroit and Chicago with six goals in the playoffs. They could have had a lot more than that as they had the advantage 33 times. That is a bit disconcerting since Washington converted 25 percent of the time on the power play.

You don?t hear much about the Capitals? defense because?well?it isn?t all that good. Green knows how to score, but can and does screw up in the defensive zone. Tom Poti has the size to keep the opposition honest (6?3?, 202 pounds), but tries to finesse when defending.


Washington?s PK unit stopped the Rangers 87.1 percent of the time they were shorthanded in the first round. To be fair, New York was never really known for being an offensive juggernaut.

Goaltending is a touchy spot for the Capitals right now ? head coach Bruce Boudreau hasn?t even named who will get the starting nod. Simeon Varlamov stepped up in a big way during the opening round with a 95.2 save percentage and a 1.17 goals against average. The only problem with Varlamov is that he?s only made 11 career starts at the NHL level.

Jose Theodore could make his way back between the pipes for this series since he was 3-0 with a 2.70 and stopped nine out of every 10 shots the Penguins took on him. The only problem with Theodore is that likes to pretend he?s a matador on the ice, which is why he got pulled after Game 1 against the Rangers.

Everyone thinks that Sidney Crosby is the best player on Pittsburgh?s roster. Who could blame them after scoring 33 goals and 70 assists during the regular season? But Evgeni Malkin is the Pens? best player with a league-high 113 points, which helped turn him into a Hart Trophy finalist for the second straight year. Jordan Staal can also catch teams off guard, as evidenced by his 22 goals. The best part of those three players is that they can and will form a line by themselves to give their offense a shot in the arm.

The Penguins? defense isn?t talked about much, but they have a formidable setup anchored by best the all-around defenseman of this series in Sergei Gonchar. If Pitt needs to smack around its opponents, they send out Brooks Orpik, Rob Scuderi (team-high plus-23 rating) or Hal Gill. So if you score on the Pens, you will have most definitely earned it.

Marc-Andre Fleury gives the Pens an edge when it comes to goaltending in this matchup. He was 35-18-7 this year with a 2.67 GAA during the regular season, but stopped 92 percent of Philly?s SOG for a GAA of 2.39.

Gambling Notes: On one side of the aisle, you can say that this series was evenly matched with a pair of the games being decided by a single goal. On the other hand, you could say that Washington dominated the season series with a 3-0-1 record and 4-2-2 over the last two years.

Something that surprises me about this series already is that the total for Game 1 is set at 5 ?. No fewer than seven goals were scored in all four games of the season series. The betting shops started making the total at 5 ? during the regular campaign, but escalated the number to 6 ? on March 8. And that still was too low for these teams.

Outside of Varlamov?s performance thus far in the playoffs, there is no reason to believe that trend will stop. And let?s be honest, it doesn?t really take a whole hell of a lot to stop the Rangers? attack.

Outlook: If the exact game odds for this series by Sportsbook.com are any indication, the Capitals will win this series in seven games for a plus-300 return (risk $100 to win $300). That line makes sense given how closely these squads mirror each other.

This series really will be determined in the first two games at the Verizon Center. If the Caps can win both Games 1 and 2, they?ll most likely advance in five games at plus-400. If the Pens can steal at least one game at the ?Phone Booth,? then they should close it out in six games to garner a plus-450 payback.
 
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