starter warning signs/sat

[IE]

K.Appier Anaheim - 2002 Game Log

Date Vs. Score IP H R ER K BB HR Pit. GB:FB Rest
5/26/2002 Minnesota L 2-5 Start - L 5.2 9 3 2 3 1 0 106 4:9 5
5/20/2002 Kansas City W 6-3 Start - W 6.1 6 3 3 4 2 0 106 3:11 5
5/14/2002 @Detroit W 9-2 Start - W 7.0 3 2 2 5 0 1 107 4:12 5
5/8/2002 Detroit W 3-2 Start - ND 7.0 6 2 2 4 1 0 118 8:9 5
5/2/2002 @Cleveland W 8-0 Start - W 6.0 5 0 0 5 4 0 114 5:6 5
4/26/2002 Toronto W 4-0 Start - W 6.2 7 0 0 5 1 0 104 4:11 5
4/20/2002 @Oakland L 7-8 Start - ND 2.2 6 6 6 2 2 1 59 1:5 5
4/14/2002 Oakland W 4-1 Start - W 7.0 4 1 1 5 2 1 108 5:10 4
4/9/2002 Seattle L 1-5 Start - L 7.0 5 2 2 6 2 1 101 5:7 6
4/2/2002 Cleveland W 7-5 Start - ND 5.0 4 4 2 2 4 0 106 5:7 17

Appier showed signs of weakness in last start from previous high pitch counts.


K.Lohse Minnesota - 2002 Game Log

Date Vs. Score IP H R ER K BB HR Pit. GB:FB Rest
5/27/2002 @Texas W 5-2 Start - W 5.1 7 1 1 6 2 1 109 4:6 4
5/22/2002 Texas L 5-6 Start - L 6.0 7 4 4 5 1 1 105 10:3 5
5/16/2002 @Kansas City W 14-5 Start - W 5.0 4 3 1 2 5 0 106 7:6 4
5/11/2002 N.Y. Yankees L 2-4 Start - ND 6.1 3 2 2 5 2 0 88 6:8 5
5/5/2002 Detroit L 6-7 Start - L 4.1 8 6 6 2 2 1 83 5:6 4
4/30/2002 Tampa Bay W 6-3 Start - W 7.0 6 2 2 3 2 0 94 7:10 4
4/25/2002 @Tampa Bay W 6-2 Start - ND 6.2 6 2 2 5 1 0 87 4:11 5
4/19/2002 Cleveland W 12-3 Start - W 7.0 4 2 2 6 0 1 92 7:8 7
4/11/2002 @Cleveland L 4-8 Start - L 3.1 5 8 7 2 4 2 70 6:2 4
4/6/2002 @Toronto W 7-5 Start - ND 4.1 8 3 3 3 3 0 105 6:4 21

Twins have to come back with Lohse on 4 days rest showing signs of weakness off triple +105 pitch counts....they might be forced to leave him in to eat innings up no matter hard being hit.




J.Baldwin Seattle - 2002 Game Log

Date Vs. Score IP H R ER K BB HR Pit. GB:FB Rest
5/23/2002 Tampa Bay W 7-3 Start - W 7.0 4 3 3 7 1 1 92 4:10 4
5/18/2002 @Boston L 1-4 Start - L 6.0 8 4 4 3 4 1 101 8:6 5
5/12/2002 Boston L 4-10 Start - L 5.2 8 5 1 4 1 0 96 7:5 4
5/7/2002 Toronto L 1-4 Start - L 7.0 8 4 4 6 4 0 117 3:10 4
5/2/2002 @Chi. Sox W 15-4 Start - W 7.0 7 4 4 3 4 2 113 8:10 5
4/26/2002 N.Y. Yankees L 1-7 Start - L 4.2 13 7 7 2 2 1 91 7:5 5
4/20/2002 Texas W 3-2 Start - ND 6.1 5 2 2 3 3 1 102 8:8 4
4/15/2002 @Texas W 13-11 Start - ND 4.2 10 7 7 2 2 2 66 6:5 4
4/10/2002 @Anaheim W 8-1 Start - W 7.0 5 1 1 1 0 0 70 8:12 4
4/5/2002 Oakland W 7-1 Start - W 7.0 5 1 1 6 1 1 104 9:6 20

opposite end of spectrum with baldwin not pitching in 8 days off good start. Previous start with more than 4 days rest off quality start got hit hard vs yankees, and he is still working on his mechanics during bullpen sessions last week.


M.Redman Detroit - 2002 Game Log

Date Vs. Score IP H R ER K BB HR Pit. GB:FB Rest
5/27/2002 @Cleveland W 4-1 Start - W 9.0 4 1 1 3 1 1 120 17:7 5
5/21/2002 Cleveland W 5-1 Start - W 9.0 10 1 0 3 3 0 121 13:11 5
5/15/2002 Anaheim L 1-10 Start - L 6.0 9 7 4 6 1 1 109 4:8 5
5/9/2002 @Anaheim L 6-7 Start - L 6.1 9 7 3 3 2 0 94 4:11 4
5/4/2002 @Minnesota L 2-3 Start - ND 7.0 2 2 2 5 6 0 114 8:7 5
4/28/2002 Minnesota W 5-4 Start - ND 7.0 7 1 1 8 1 0 116 7:6 5
4/22/2002 @Kansas City L 0-6 Start - L 6.0 7 6 6 4 3 2 105 8:5 4
4/17/2002 Tampa Bay W 7-6 Start - ND 7.0 5 4 4 6 1 1 115 5:10 4
4/12/2002 @Minnesota L 2-4 Start - L 7.0 8 4 4 4 2 0 98 12:5 6
4/5/2002 Cleveland L 1-10 Start - L 4.1 7 7 6 0 5 1 93 3:9 20

classic situation for Redman to be hit hard to today off back to back 120+ pitch counts dropping from 5 days to 4 days rest. This might not be pretty.


T.Glavine Atlanta - 2002 Game Log

Date Vs. Score IP H R ER K BB HR Pit. GB:FB Rest
5/27/2002 Montreal W 5-1 Start - W 9.0 5 1 1 8 0 1 115 4:14 4
5/22/2002 @Montreal W 2-0 Start - W 9.0 4 0 0 2 1 0 99 13:11 4
5/17/2002 @Colorado W 4-2 Start - W 6.2 6 2 1 3 2 0 97 11:6 4
5/12/2002 San Diego L 5-6 Start - L 6.0 8 5 4 3 2 1 112 6:9 4
5/7/2002 Los Angeles L 5-6 Start - ND 5.2 9 4 4 4 4 1 109 3:8 5
5/1/2002 @Milwaukee W 3-1 Start - W 8.0 3 1 1 6 0 1 82 7:10 4
4/26/2002 Houston W 9-0 Start - W 7.0 3 0 0 1 3 0 103 13:7 4
4/21/2002 Florida W 4-2 Start - W 7.0 6 1 1 7 0 0 110 4:10 4
4/16/2002 @N.Y. Mets L 1-3 Start - L 6.0 7 2 1 6 2 0 104 5:6 4
4/11/2002 @Philadelphia W 6-2 Start - W 7.0 3 0 0 4 2 0 107 7:9 4
4/6/2002 N.Y. Mets L 2-11 Start - ND 7.0 6 2 0 4 3 0 106 8:8 4
4/1/2002 Philadelphia W 7-2 Start - W 6.1 5 2 2 7 2 1 106 2:10 16

3 superior starts on 4 days rest off highest pitch count of season, could lead to bad start for Glavine today...Rijo has heavy arm and could be making last start for Reds, check bullpens for these teams for recent usage.



L.Hernandez San Francisco - 2002 Game Log

Date Vs. Score IP H R ER K BB HR Pit. GB:FB Rest
5/27/2002 Arizona W 7-3 Start - W 7.0 5 2 2 7 3 0 124 8:6 5
5/21/2002 @Arizona L 4-9 Start - ND 5.0 7 3 3 1 5 1 108 5:8 5
5/15/2002 Atlanta L 1-6 Start - L 4.1 6 5 5 2 4 1 81 4:7 4
5/10/2002 @Montreal L 3-6 Start - L 5.0 9 6 6 4 2 1 94 8:3 4
5/5/2002 Cincinnati W 6-5 Start - ND 6.1 9 5 4 4 1 1 114 12:3 4
4/30/2002 Philadelphia L 2-8 Start - L 8.0 9 3 3 3 1 1 102 12:7 4
4/25/2002 @Chi. Cubs L 1-2 Start - L 8.0 7 2 2 3 1 1 111 11:10 5
4/19/2002 @Houston W 3-2 Start - W 7.0 6 2 2 4 0 2 89 8:7 5
4/13/2002 Milwaukee W 3-2 Start - W 7.0 9 2 2 2 2 0 99 15:4 5
4/7/2002 San Diego W 10-1 Start - W 9.0 4 1 1 5 1 0 109 13:9 4
4/2/2002 @Los Angeles W 9-2 Start - W 8.0 4 2 2 3 3 0 122 13:7 17

although hernandez is used to higher pitch counts comes off 124 pitches with 5 days rest down to 4 days rest and his lone quality start in May(could go back to Hr vunerablity today shown in previous starts)....Hampton in bad form also...breaking ball speed to close to fastball speed.





more to follow......

 

[IE]

B.Lawrence San Diego - 2002 Game Log

Date Vs. Score IP H R ER K BB HR Pit. GB:FB Rest
5/27/2002 Colorado W 8-5 Start - W 6.1 5 5 5 5 2 1 96 7:7 4
5/22/2002 @Colorado L 3-5 Start - ND 7.0 12 3 3 7 2 0 114 10:1 5
5/16/2002 N.Y. Mets L 1-3 Start - L 7.0 8 2 2 5 3 0 97 12:4 4
5/11/2002 @Atlanta L 1-6 Start - L 3.2 7 6 5 2 1 2 54 7:2 5
5/5/2002 Pittsburgh W 6-5 Start - W 7.1 9 5 4 7 1 0 108 13:1 4
4/30/2002 Chi. Cubs W 2-1 Start - ND 7.1 6 1 1 2 2 0 93 13:7 5
4/24/2002 @Philadelphia W 7-2 Start - W 6.2 7 2 2 4 1 1 102 9:7 4
4/19/2002 @Los Angeles L 2-5 Start - L 7.0 5 3 3 5 2 0 94 10:6 4
4/14/2002 Los Angeles W 1-0 Start - W 7.0 4 0 0 2 1 0 82 16:3 5
4/8/2002 Arizona W 8-0 Start - W 9.0 4 0 0 4 1 0 101 9:14 4
4/3/2002 @Arizona W 8-7 Start - ND 5.2 8 4 4 2 1 1 77 12:3 18

Lawrence coming on back to back 4 days rest showing vunerablity from 2nd last start...short outing signs..check padres bullpen usage.

 

[Dr Raider]

Nice Info

J Rijo (Cin) didn't look that great to me in his last start. He skipped a start in the rotation and made a short relief showing against Fla a few days ago

What does this mean?
you are correct -
don't expect a full game out of this guy

Do you think Atlanta is worth a play at -150 ?
( High chalky price that seems tough to swallow considering Atlanta hasn't been stellar against Cinn at home in the past )

 

[bosco]

IE2002,

Great info. Thanks!

Do you have any thoughts on Oswalt or Prior today?

Thanks for all your hard work!

GL today

 

[IE]

Dr Raider, i don't think both starters will be the deciding factor in this game, braves bats are hot in recent form, and lightenberg adds a nice setup role balance for the braves bp the way he has been pitching.....can't back braves with glavines cycle at around
-150 ..but at 8.0 im definiltely taking the over.

 

[IE]

Bosco, am on the fence with Oswalt today.

He has dominated weak hitting clubs(Pit,Mets) and cubs lineup would fit into that category, but do not like the lack of dominace shown last two starts with k:Ip ratio for a strikeout pitcher. In the past this has shown weakness.


R.Oswalt (R) Last 10 Starts Date Opposition Scr Line W/L IP H R ER SO BB HR PIT P/IP G/F
5/27/2002 StL 3-4 -155/8.5 L/U 7.1 9 4 4 4 1 1 112 15.9 0.50
5/22/2002 @StL 2-3 -115/7.5 L/U 7.0 5 1 1 4 2 0 98 14.0 4.67
5/16/2002 Pit. 3-1 -210/8.5 W/U 8.0 7 1 1 11 1 0 106 13.2 3.00
5/11/2002 @Pit. 2-4 -160/8 L/U 7.0 5 4 3 2 2 0 89 12.7 1.11
5/5/2002 Mets 12-1 -125/8.5 W/O 7.0 4 1 0 7 2 0 94 13.4 1.00
4/30/2002 Mon. 1-5 -170/9 L/U 7.0 8 5 5 1 2 0 109 15.6 1.37
4/24/2002 @Fla. 7-4 -150/8 W/O 7.0 5 2 1 8 4 0 98 14.0 2.25
4/18/2002 @Cin. 4-5x -185/9 L/P 7.0 6 0 0 6 0 0 86 12.3 0.67
4/13/2002 @StL 1-2 -115/8.5 L/U 6.0 8 1 1 10 1 0 115 19.2 0.33
4/8/2002 @Col. 8-4 -135/11.5 W/O 7.0 10 3 3 6 0 2 96 13.7 0.87

Looks like cubs are going to yank Prior after a certain amount of pitches, so in all likelyhood will see 2.2-3.0 innings of weak Cubs bullpen.

At 7.5-120 tough call on the total....

gotta pass on both of these underachieving teams also at this price, looks like a bullpen type game again.

good luck today.

 

[bosco]

Thanks IE,

looking at the weak Chic BP's and the HP ump, I'll probably take the over. I still haven't finished my research. Thanks for your help!

GL today

 

[GENO]

IE
I agree with the situation on REDMOND, I played CLV team over 4.5 his last outing and was a loser but will come back with an over again today there ALSO felt the same way about RIJO, he was a spiritual, mature positive influence on the youngsters on CINCY REDS some of those guys were teens when Jose was in the WS. BUT time catchs up with all of us should see some runs there from ATL. Only negative is cincy B/A vs LHP of .238