kevin
this one caught my eye 'cause i cashed him a couple of sundays ago on his second start of the season at unrealistic odds, something like 2-1 against so-so burba, i believe. a good example of exaggerated home favorites based on pitcher's w/l record, team record, etc., which i disregard mostly, especially when the lines are silly. thank God for this silliness, as that is what gives many of us the opportunity to cash in nicely.
your suggestion is absolutely right, the facts are there, at least the recent trends. i can't see myself looking past this season. this is one man, one arm, one completely different set of circumstances about his personal life, etc. i would go strictly on his recent record.
i tried to see if maybe the opposing pitcher's record or maybe the odds had anything to do with it, but came up empty in scoresandodds, as they drop the lines on their old records. here i would look to see if the man would rise up to the ocassion when facing a good pitcher, etc.
one undeniable fact, and it is so overwhelming, is that he is dr. jekyll and mr. hyde. a perfect example of a good reason to take him away when the odds are right, and skip him, or even play against him at home if he comes up the favorite for any strange reason.
still, you can't just go on generalities, you must handicap each game and determine whether the value (or silly value) is there or not.
pep
