Unbelievable Game Proves That Stats Lie
By Tommy Geoff
Dec 13, 2002, 2:35pm
If you would have told me before Sunday?s games started that the Pittsburgh Steelers would have 24 first downs and Houston would have only 3, and the Steelers would gain 422 yards to Houston?s 47 yards, I would have personally wagered $5,000 on Pittsburgh ?13.5. Unfortunately, I would have lost my wager. Not only was it a loss, but a BLOWOUT LOSS by 31.5 points over the spread!
Houston won the game outright 24-6. The game was truly unbelievable considering the major stats (total yards and first downs). I don?t think I?ve ever seen an NFL team gain under 100 yards in a game, in 30 years. To gain only 47 offensive yards and end up with 24 points is amazing.
Of course you all know that turnovers were the reason for the unlikely outcome of the game. Two interceptions and a fumble all returned for touchdowns by Houston accounted for 21 of their 24 points.
It just goes to show you how difficult it is to handicap football. We gave out Houston +13.5 to our members, but by no means did we expect them to win outright by 18 points. A few turnovers and a favorite can get blown out. This can?t happen in basketball. A few turnovers are nothing. You could turn the ball over 30 times in a basketball game and still win it by over a dozen points. In football, five turnovers in a game and there?s a 95% chance you?ll lose.
Turnovers are also one of the most important stats when rating a Quarterback. Red zone interceptions and house balls (interceptions returned for a touchdown) can make or break a quarterback. If a QB is in the red zone and throws an interception, not only does his team lose the ball, but they lose at least 3 points since they could have kicked a field goal. It?s also just as bad if a QB is on his own 20 yard line or less and throws an interception. The opposition is now in the red zone and will more than likely score 3 or 7 points.
This is what separates GOOD quarterback?s from GREAT quarterbacks. Kurt Warner?s interceptions in the Super Bowl cost them the game. The Patriots played not to lose and just waited for him to make mistakes. Kurt Warner used to be GREAT, but his recent run of interceptions has made him below average.
On the flip side, a less talented QB, like Trent Dilfer, won the Super Bowl the previous season just by not making any mistakes.
This past weekend, Brian Griese was having a solid game vs the NY Jets. With under a minute left, Griese thew an interception in the end zone to end the game. Griese posts good stats every game, but he has thrown red zone interceptions and house balls on several occasions this season. They?ve cost the Broncos at least three games this season.
Brett Farve?s another one. When he?s good, he?s the greatest QB ever. But when he?s bad, the guy is TERRIBLE. Four times a year the guy throws 3-4 interceptions and the Packers get pounded by a decent team or get upset by a garbage team. Last years playoff game vs St Louis was one of Farve?s TERRIBLE outings (6 interceptions).
Dan Marino?s another example. Great stats. AMAZING stats. But the Dolphins never won anything because the guy threw the most red zone interceptions in the history of football. Not having a running game hurt them as well, but a few times a year Marino threw the game away with his red zone interceptions.
Many consider Joe Montana the best ever. He didn?t have the most amazing stats, but he won because he didn?t force stupid passes in the red zone. I?m sure he has thrown an interception that was run back for a touchdown, but off hand I can?t even remember seeing one. Nor do I ever remember him throwing interceptions at key points of the game. John Elway was also efficient at the end of his career. It took Steve Young about seven years, but he also won without making turnovers after he figured things out.
Turnovers are the most important stats in football. Be sure to factor them in when you rate players and handicap your games! They?re the main reason why anyone can beat anyone at any time?
.
By Tommy Geoff
Dec 13, 2002, 2:35pm
If you would have told me before Sunday?s games started that the Pittsburgh Steelers would have 24 first downs and Houston would have only 3, and the Steelers would gain 422 yards to Houston?s 47 yards, I would have personally wagered $5,000 on Pittsburgh ?13.5. Unfortunately, I would have lost my wager. Not only was it a loss, but a BLOWOUT LOSS by 31.5 points over the spread!
Houston won the game outright 24-6. The game was truly unbelievable considering the major stats (total yards and first downs). I don?t think I?ve ever seen an NFL team gain under 100 yards in a game, in 30 years. To gain only 47 offensive yards and end up with 24 points is amazing.
Of course you all know that turnovers were the reason for the unlikely outcome of the game. Two interceptions and a fumble all returned for touchdowns by Houston accounted for 21 of their 24 points.
It just goes to show you how difficult it is to handicap football. We gave out Houston +13.5 to our members, but by no means did we expect them to win outright by 18 points. A few turnovers and a favorite can get blown out. This can?t happen in basketball. A few turnovers are nothing. You could turn the ball over 30 times in a basketball game and still win it by over a dozen points. In football, five turnovers in a game and there?s a 95% chance you?ll lose.
Turnovers are also one of the most important stats when rating a Quarterback. Red zone interceptions and house balls (interceptions returned for a touchdown) can make or break a quarterback. If a QB is in the red zone and throws an interception, not only does his team lose the ball, but they lose at least 3 points since they could have kicked a field goal. It?s also just as bad if a QB is on his own 20 yard line or less and throws an interception. The opposition is now in the red zone and will more than likely score 3 or 7 points.
This is what separates GOOD quarterback?s from GREAT quarterbacks. Kurt Warner?s interceptions in the Super Bowl cost them the game. The Patriots played not to lose and just waited for him to make mistakes. Kurt Warner used to be GREAT, but his recent run of interceptions has made him below average.
On the flip side, a less talented QB, like Trent Dilfer, won the Super Bowl the previous season just by not making any mistakes.
This past weekend, Brian Griese was having a solid game vs the NY Jets. With under a minute left, Griese thew an interception in the end zone to end the game. Griese posts good stats every game, but he has thrown red zone interceptions and house balls on several occasions this season. They?ve cost the Broncos at least three games this season.
Brett Farve?s another one. When he?s good, he?s the greatest QB ever. But when he?s bad, the guy is TERRIBLE. Four times a year the guy throws 3-4 interceptions and the Packers get pounded by a decent team or get upset by a garbage team. Last years playoff game vs St Louis was one of Farve?s TERRIBLE outings (6 interceptions).
Dan Marino?s another example. Great stats. AMAZING stats. But the Dolphins never won anything because the guy threw the most red zone interceptions in the history of football. Not having a running game hurt them as well, but a few times a year Marino threw the game away with his red zone interceptions.
Many consider Joe Montana the best ever. He didn?t have the most amazing stats, but he won because he didn?t force stupid passes in the red zone. I?m sure he has thrown an interception that was run back for a touchdown, but off hand I can?t even remember seeing one. Nor do I ever remember him throwing interceptions at key points of the game. John Elway was also efficient at the end of his career. It took Steve Young about seven years, but he also won without making turnovers after he figured things out.
Turnovers are the most important stats in football. Be sure to factor them in when you rate players and handicap your games! They?re the main reason why anyone can beat anyone at any time?
.
