playing this one a little stronger than anything ive played so far this season:
3 units....houston (+105) over montreal
ytd.....29-25 (+8.55 units)
3 units....houston (+105) over montreal
ytd.....29-25 (+8.55 units)
strong mlb play for sunday........
- Thread starter gman2
- Start date
adding: 1 unit.....boston (-220) over anaheim
angels just strike me as a public dog tonight. very tempting im sure to consider the world champs as a national tv home dog of 200+, but i think the line is there for a reason. pedro's lifetime numbers for anaheim are sick. he's been lights out vs them
angels just strike me as a public dog tonight. very tempting im sure to consider the world champs as a national tv home dog of 200+, but i think the line is there for a reason. pedro's lifetime numbers for anaheim are sick. he's been lights out vs them
GMAN here is why I am on the angels:
BOSTON -
(04/27 04:28am) P Pedro Martinez (back) is expected to start. The
Boston Herald reports Martinez' stiff back, which
has bothered him in his last three starts, has
improved over the past few days and shouldn't be a
major factor tonight.
major factor minor factor I don't care if they have him on a pitch count I don't trust the BOSOX pen with a -220 play on the road.
PS Lackey is spooky right now maybe the bettter play is on the OVER at 7.5 ?
Best of luck and one of us should have a winner
BOSTON -
(04/27 04:28am) P Pedro Martinez (back) is expected to start. The
Boston Herald reports Martinez' stiff back, which
has bothered him in his last three starts, has
improved over the past few days and shouldn't be a
major factor tonight.
major factor minor factor I don't care if they have him on a pitch count I don't trust the BOSOX pen with a -220 play on the road.
PS Lackey is spooky right now maybe the bettter play is on the OVER at 7.5 ?
Best of luck and one of us should have a winner
really cant argue with the "bullpen angle"
sox pen is awful.
still feel like pedro gets it done with no problem, but can definitely see an anaheim point of view as well
sox pen is awful.
still feel like pedro gets it done with no problem, but can definitely see an anaheim point of view as well
nice call on the Astro's, gonna give the Sox rl a small shot. if the bullpen blows it is usually costs the game outright, if not think Pedro could cover the 1-.
GL
Raz
GL
Raz
raz:
i actually agree with what youre saying. its likely pedro will either win comfortably, or lose outright due to pen troubles. that seems to be the way the sox games have been going this year
i actually agree with what youre saying. its likely pedro will either win comfortably, or lose outright due to pen troubles. that seems to be the way the sox games have been going this year
The line is now -199 at Pinnacle and I believe it opened up at 235. It was 210 about 40 min ago. Either Joe Pa is really hitting this game, or the sharps like this one. I liked Bos early on at the 235 but after watchng the line move earlier today and reading about Pedro's back and thinking about that pen, I put the money on Ana. Now that I think about it, Lackey is brutal and if he gets off to his trademark start, the Pen may only be needed for a couple innings. The ball carries well out at Anaheim during the day so that 7.5 looks pretty tasty and I think that total is more a Pedro factor than out of respect to Lackey. Guess that is why they call it gambling. I bet if you like Boston you can probably wait till 8pm and get them at 180.
Best of luck to all.
Best of luck to all.
escrow:
ive noticed the line drop as well.
to be honest with you- i dont even pay attention to baseball line moves whatsoever, whereas ill really value a line move in a hoops or football game.
the reason i dont pay attention to baseball line moves but do value hoops and football line moves is because baseball is (obviously) a straight-up, winner cashes kind of game.
a line move in baseball is more "recognizing value for the dollar"
whereas a football or basketball line move is "recognizing point spread value"
does that make any sense, lol?
its kinda like i DO think the line drop is worth noting, but since there are no "backdoor covers" in baseball, or theres no "pointspread", i feel like if pedro is the right side, he'll get it done tonight. if not, it wont be because i "got a bad line"
ive noticed the line drop as well.
to be honest with you- i dont even pay attention to baseball line moves whatsoever, whereas ill really value a line move in a hoops or football game.
the reason i dont pay attention to baseball line moves but do value hoops and football line moves is because baseball is (obviously) a straight-up, winner cashes kind of game.
a line move in baseball is more "recognizing value for the dollar"
whereas a football or basketball line move is "recognizing point spread value"
does that make any sense, lol?
its kinda like i DO think the line drop is worth noting, but since there are no "backdoor covers" in baseball, or theres no "pointspread", i feel like if pedro is the right side, he'll get it done tonight. if not, it wont be because i "got a bad line"
Good point. And just as you say that, the line moves back up to
-198 for Boston LOL.
Sometimes we may put too much stock into line moves and should just trust our instincts and not outsmart or outstupid ourselves.
Somebody will win
-198 for Boston LOL.
Sometimes we may put too much stock into line moves and should just trust our instincts and not outsmart or outstupid ourselves.
Somebody will win
absolutely....positively....not worth the stress
sometimes, aces are worth the chalk from time to time, but as dominant as pedro is- its become impossible to play him because his bullpen absolutely blows.
glad the sox cashed, but definitely gonna avoid the sox in high chalk spots until their pen gets it in gear. that was ridiculous.
actually feel drained...and thats after a 3-0 night, lol
sometimes, aces are worth the chalk from time to time, but as dominant as pedro is- its become impossible to play him because his bullpen absolutely blows.
glad the sox cashed, but definitely gonna avoid the sox in high chalk spots until their pen gets it in gear. that was ridiculous.
actually feel drained...and thats after a 3-0 night, lol
