Strong Plays

[lostinamerica]

NCAA YTD: 48-44 (+1.74*)
NFL YTD: 29-33 (-3.96*)

I've seen a few strong plays of late for exactly what they were. I believe my confidence in my top plays this week is legitimate.
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Connecticut(-3)(-108) over Rutgers (2*)
- - I wonder how many different ways there are to say it . . . IMO, from top to bottom, by every substantial criteria that comes to mind, Connecticut in this engagement is as good as and generally better than the Scarlet Knights . . . The old cliche is, "They were the better team today"; if these teams played at Rutgers six times from September to January, I would be VERY disappointed if Connecticut lost twice . . .It would be Connecticut(-3) or no play for me if this was LAST YEAR'S Connecticut team . . . I don't see this game being decided on the game's final snaps.

Rutgers Blog:
http://www.nj.com/rutgers/ledger/index.ssf?/base/sports-0/11010162183290.xml



Kent State(-8')(-108) over Central Florida (1.5*)
- - When Kent was smoked by Iowa in their opener while playing without Joshua Cribbs, the heart and soul of their team, the few posts I read on the forum moaned about what on awful team they were. I saw something completely different, to wit, athleticism, heart and fundamentaly sound coaching (i.e., finishing plays and credible scheming while being badly outmanned). I made a small winning wager on Kent against Rutgers in their next game on the board, and then I kind of lost track of them. Now Kent is rolling, and I am leaning on what I saw in that opener to wager that they didn't shoot their whole wad on Senior day. On the other side, Central Florida has some athletes (don't they?) and plays some defense, but from my experience, "a finger in the dike pressure" seems more likely than "gonna get it done confidence" off a missed opportunity against lowly Ball State. I'm backing Kent to show its class going away.

Kent State HC Doug Martin Press Conference Quotes:
http://www.kentstatesports.com/inde...e_id=1444&url_subchannel_id=&change_well_id=2

Scouting Kent State and UCF:
http://ucfathletics.collegesports.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/112204aab.html



Toledo(+4')(-108) over Bowling Green (1*)
- - Toledo consistently earns my money when they have a MAC team right where they want them - in this case as a conference home dog, no great chasm between the teams, and more at stake (IMO). As time is short, I am keeping the play small while leaning on some MAC and MJ coattails in lieu of research.


Monday night was a good finish to last week - hoping to build on it with a great start this week.


GL

 

[gman2]

lost:

id have to concur on kent state. my main hesitation is that ucf might find some semblance of a nutsack and try to avoid going winless, but right now, theyre just a lame team. theyve got some athletes, but they have no cohesiveness, no pride, and no heart. cribbs is playing out of his mind to end his career. flashes playing for their longest winning streak in a long long time. and the ksu defense has done a great job lately. dont blame you for laying the points. appreciate your work as always

 

[lostinamerica]

Bump :bump:

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gman - always good to hear from you :yup - it took me 36 hours to come up with that

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My top two picks in weeks are already posted. I've studied most of the rest of the plays on the board that are on my radar. What's looking like the best of the rest? . . .

UTEP(-8') over Tulsa

Back later with a write-up.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

First and Ten, Do it Again!



Texas El Paso(-8')(-108) over Tulsa (1.25*)

Theory: In the NFL, throw out the top few and bottom few teams, and parity means that through most of the season, teams off big losses have teams off big wins about exactly where they want them (lol); I think it's emotion and mindset more so than line value. By contrast, in the closing weeks in college, again after throwing out the top few and bottom few teams, teams that are rolling separate themselves from inferior foes, with extreme rivalries a dangerous exception, and unaccustomed big game pressure another danger.

Facts: If the theory holds water, finding the situation and assessing its applicability is a dicey capping matter.
(LINK - Didn't work - This post too long to include newspaper article here - so see newspaper article in next post)
It's an article of faith with me that NOTHING makes me more nervous than wagers involving teams I have not seen play all year (not even a few series), while thousands have seen multiple games. That's the situation here; nevertheless, while my reluctance through the season (born of "no viewing") to get involved in UTEP games even kept me from looking to research their storybook season, and while I was busy elsewhere on the card and missed a perfect spot last week, I think there is a gulf between the teams in this game that plays out on the scoreboard . . . From the looks of the forum, I don't think the UTEP backers during the season are urging caution this week; and the theory of jumping in and wagering against a hot team if you haven't been along for the ride doesn't seem to be attracting a lot of support here . . .Tulsa? They were exposed last year, and I don't remember an instance this year when I was "jonesing" to let them carry my cash. I don't see pressure on a bowl assured UTEP team that has wins at Fresno and LaTech, or an undistinguished group of Tulsa seniors playing hard in the Thanksgiving atmosphere, as difference makers here. I sense that UTEP HC Mike Price is cognizant of any opportunity to make a statement . . . I think UTEP is more than a solid play. I think it's a right side.



Colorado(+2') over Nebraska (1*)
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/cu/article/0,1299,DRMN_2938_3354337,00.html
- - Heading into this game and all season long, I've liked what I've seen from Colorado a whole lot more than what the Nebraska has displayed, enough so to see a live dog in this one, and I think the Buffs have these Huskers right where they want them, in Lincoln. Or not.


GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Newspaper article referenced in prior post -


El Paso Times
(11/24/04):

After UTEP's 45-point outburst against SMU last week, the question is: How did this offense go from pedestrian to powerful in 10 games?

The answer: the offensive line, playmaking receivers, a sound game plan, confidence and Jordan Palmer.

The Miners chalked up more than 500 yards of offense against the Mustangs, scored two touchdowns in less than four minutes at the end of the first half, scored three more touchdowns during the first five minutes of the third quarter and put up 28 points by the end of the period. In all, the Miners rebounded from a 10-point deficit with 45 unanswered points.

It all started with Palmer, who is hoping to have another big game Saturday in UTEP's (8-2, 7-1 WAC) regular-season finale at Tulsa (3-8, 2-5)

"I'm seeing things," the sophomore from Mission Viejo, Calif. , said. "I'm not getting surprised anymore. And I have a lot more confidence."

It doesn't hurt that the play- calling has been consistent and easy to learn. Each week, offensive coordinator Eric Price makes adjustments to the game plan based on the defensive philosophy of the opponent. They're simple adjustments that allow the players to build on what they already know, rather than having to learn a whole new game plan.

"We add adjustments, not packages," Palmer said. "A package would take two weeks to learn."

Of course, Palmer's speedy development would be impossible without the equally improved play of the offensive line. Early on, Palmer said he was getting hit. But with each game, the punishment has become less and less.

"Now, I don't even get hit," he said.

The other end of the passing-catching equation is the receivers, who have been as spectacular catching the ball as Palmer has been throwing it. Consider that sophomore speedster Johnnie Lee Higgins has caught a touchdown pass in each of the past eight contests, the most consecutive games with a touchdown reception for a Miner since Lee Mays caught touchdown balls in 10 consecutive games in 2000.

Then there's junior Chris Francies, perhaps the most steady of UTEP's receivers. And junior transfer Jayson Boyd has come into his own during the past two weeks.

Throw in sophomore Chris Marrow, sophomore Aaron Givens, tailback Howard Jackson and a pair of young tight ends in Casey Mauch and Jake Sears, and Palmer has a selection of targets to aim for.

"We have weapons everywhere," Boyd said. "At running back, quarterback, everywhere. It's great to play under (head coach) Mike Price. It just feels like we're getting better and better."

Francies said. "Every game (the offense) opens up. It's the first time I've been on an offense that explodes like this. It's a big-play offense. Things are there for us to make big plays."

Indeed, Palmer said his problem last year was that he tried to do too much, which often resulted in disaster. This year, he just plays within the system that is laid out for him.

"Last year, I felt like I had to make big-time throws," he said. "But this year, they are (short) throws that aren't spectacular. The offense doesn't depend on me to make big plays."

Knowing that he has a capable supporting cast has made all the difference in the world, he said.

"The pressure is off of me," he said. "I know the defense isn't going to be scored on, and Howard Jackson will break a long one eventually."

Besides that, Francies said the offense gets inspired -- rather than deflated -- when an opponent scores.

"Our confidence level is up," he said. "When someone gets ahead, we don't put our heads down."

 

[halfbuck34]

Lost,

Relatively new to the thread. Really liked some of your posts and picks. Will be going with you on the UTEP pick. Do you feel as strong on Colorado?

 

[lostinamerica]

halfbuck-

All my plays make me nervous - Colorado makes me more nervous than UTEP -


One more excerpt on Colorado getting after Nebraska - Rocky Mountain News(11/15/04):

With their 30-3 pounding by No. 2 Oklahoma, the Huskers (5-5) slipped within one loss of ending their NCAA record of consecutive postseason appearances at 35 and absorbing their first losing season since 1961 (3-6-1).

That's not the way coach Bill Callahan wants to finalize a tumultuous first year on the job.

The Huskers find themselves in the exact position the Buffs occupied last season. Needing a victory in the final game to become bowl eligible, CU lost 31-22 to visiting -Nebraska, finishing 5-7 and out of postseason consideration.

By beating K-State, CU unloaded that particular final-game burden.

"It keeps us out of the position we were in last season," quarterback Joel Klatt said. "Obviously, the pressure mounts. . . . Now we have the opportunity to play in the (Big 12) championship game if things go down for us. So it's still going to be a huge game; it's still the Huskers."



In posting my plays, I really like offering angles and information behind the plays and opinions - but capping takes time and comes first, then choosing the right thing to say among the distinguished company on this board is always a time consuming labor, even if I enjoy it -

It may sound crazy, but if I finish the season strong, it will be the green lights that flashed as I was capping the Tampa vs. San Francisco game last week, and the anticipation and lack of nervousness I felt in the hours before that game, that I will remember as the key moment - I like Tampa over Carolina this Sunday (they are part 3 of a "big for me" parlay on UConn/Kent/Tampa) -

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Adding just two 1* plays to the one pending play:


Tennessee(-24)(-105) over Kentucky (1*)
- - (A) As I noted in a prior thread discussing this game:
"Probably two years ago, ESPN had a program on Senior Day at Tennesse and the build up to it - it was impressive. Because of that program, I went back and looked at the recent history, and the results were what I expected to find. That's what was behind a wager by me on Tennessee(-21) on Senior Day last year as they rocked Vanderbilt 48-0. With issues at quarterback and preparations for an SEC Championship game, I still like what I hear from the Tennessee side.
http://utsports.collegesports.com/s.../112404aaf.html
- - (B) As 8)Elvis(8 noted in that same prior thread:
"tenn is 6-0 ats v/s ky since 92; tenn is 9-3 all games since 92; as a rd underdawg of 21.5 or more points ky is 1 outta 10 ats since 92; as a rd underdawg of 21.5 -31 ky is 2 outta 13 since 92 ats"



Iowa Stae(-4')(-108) over Missouri (1*)
http://dmregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20041124/SPORTS020502/411240361/1003/archive
- - The Cyclone's identity right now is winning the battle at the line of scrimmage and making plays under pressure. Missouri strikes me as emotionally flat under stern HC Gary Pinkel, and better defenses have figured out how to force QB Brad Smith to carry the load with his arm, and he has not been capable of delivering. Notwithstanding the visitors maybe being keyed to strike with speed and emotion out of the gate, I expect that by halftime the Cyclones will have settled into a game that is comfortable for them. ISU HC McCarney does a nice job on the sidelines in competitive games, and I believe it is reflected in his SU and ATS record in games decided by 8 points or less. I have my doubts about whether the stadium is deservedly full and alive over Thanksgiving break, and whether Ames has all been of one heart and mind all week long, but if the atmosphere is fully stoked, I'll even be more or less expecting evidence to creep in of a score being settled on the field for last year's 7-45 drubbing at the hands of Missouri.


GL

 

[trolln4walii]

lost

Awesome job on your games this week. Great write-ups backing your plays. GL on your remaining games. Really like Iowa State