I saw this on another site and thought it would be very useful. Take it for what it's worth.
After the first 9 weeks of the season, here's the breakdown of how often that teams that win the game straight up cover the spread.
The team winning the game is....
105-21-4 (83.33%) in ALL games (no matter what the spread)
93-12-4 (88.57%) if the spread is 7 points or LESS
98-18-4 (84.47%) if the spread is 10 points or LESS
Some added info....
Winners in the games with a line of 10.5 or MORE are 7-3 ATS (70%)....
BUT that's deceiving because San Francisco won outright over Tampa Bay as a 10.5+ point dog, so 10.5+ point FAVES are actually 6-4 ATS (60%)
Faves between 7.5 and 10 points are a pretty crappy 5-6 (45.45%) ATS
And I find this VERY interesting....
There have been 21 games in which the spread has been 7.5 points or higher. In those 21 games, the FAVORITE is 11-10 ATS (52.38%)....EXACTLY breaking even at -110 odds.
For anyone who is not sure why I am posting this....it's to show how the point spreads don't really matter too often in the NFL.
If the spread is 7 points or less, the winner covers almost 90% of the time. In other words, don't take +4 or +5 or something unless you think that dog will WIN outright, or you're putting yourself in a tough spot percentage wise more often than not.
Once the spread tops 7.5 points, that dog has a MUCH better shot of losing the game but covering the number. It's almost 50% at that point.....but anything under 7 has proven to NOT be a very good play unless the dog wins outright.
If you got balls enough, another strong way to play would be to play ALL dogs you like of under 7 on the MONEYLINE
After the first 9 weeks of the season, here's the breakdown of how often that teams that win the game straight up cover the spread.
The team winning the game is....
105-21-4 (83.33%) in ALL games (no matter what the spread)
93-12-4 (88.57%) if the spread is 7 points or LESS
98-18-4 (84.47%) if the spread is 10 points or LESS
Some added info....
Winners in the games with a line of 10.5 or MORE are 7-3 ATS (70%)....
BUT that's deceiving because San Francisco won outright over Tampa Bay as a 10.5+ point dog, so 10.5+ point FAVES are actually 6-4 ATS (60%)
Faves between 7.5 and 10 points are a pretty crappy 5-6 (45.45%) ATS
And I find this VERY interesting....
There have been 21 games in which the spread has been 7.5 points or higher. In those 21 games, the FAVORITE is 11-10 ATS (52.38%)....EXACTLY breaking even at -110 odds.
For anyone who is not sure why I am posting this....it's to show how the point spreads don't really matter too often in the NFL.
If the spread is 7 points or less, the winner covers almost 90% of the time. In other words, don't take +4 or +5 or something unless you think that dog will WIN outright, or you're putting yourself in a tough spot percentage wise more often than not.
Once the spread tops 7.5 points, that dog has a MUCH better shot of losing the game but covering the number. It's almost 50% at that point.....but anything under 7 has proven to NOT be a very good play unless the dog wins outright.
If you got balls enough, another strong way to play would be to play ALL dogs you like of under 7 on the MONEYLINE
